Model Output Discussion

[The PIT]

Has the 12 oz blown a fuse. Sunday now looks like a cool wash out. A very rapid change within the short time period. Apart from that it seems to have cottoned onto the fact that NE mean a cool east side of the country and this is reflected in the predicted temperatures.

So at the moment cool and wet tomorrow a slight recovery then cool in the east just above average in the west.

[SP1986]

Definitely not worth taking any notice of the preedicted temperatures, air frost predicted on this run which if you're honest can be ignored.

[mountain shadow]

GFS 12z for next weekend for Norn Iron = yes please.

Forgot to say.

U S A, U S A ... ;-0

[The PIT]

Definitely not worth taking any notice of the preedicted temperatures, air frost predicted on this run which if you're honest can be ignored.

Happened before in June so you can't just ignore it. If the winds do go north east temps on the east side look more realistic on this run if the cloud rolls in.

[SP1986]

Happened before in June so you can't just ignore it. If the winds do go north east temps on the east side look more realistic on this run if the cloud rolls in.

Perhaps, under very cold uppers, but the truth is the predicted uppers/thicknesses are not that cold and this will prevent such occurrences from happening.

[ANYWEATHER]

Happened before in June so you can't just ignore it. If the winds do go north east temps on the east side look more realistic on this run if the cloud rolls in.

Yep,frost is not that uncommon in June which may surprise folks! Obviously Scotland has the lions share of frosts but even southern England just outside London as a well known frost hollow and frosts can be recorded there at any time of year! 12Z GFS is on a good run with the azores high dominating throughout ,but,never no heatwave as we will always be on the wrong side of that high with a Northerly direction across the BI although very light winds across the NW will aid in some tempting temps! ..... It will be interesting to see how long that ridge will hold out......

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like a cool wet monday on the fax,with that NE-ly.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.gif

Edited June 12, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[mushymanrob]

well.. not much change in the big three... (ecm not out to 144 atm), pressure building to the northwest ridging from the azh. and thats it! the ukmo hints at a cooler northerly at the end of its run (+144) but tbh the ukmo changes quite wildly by then with each run. coolish nights under any clear skies, pressure highest on the gfs so hopefully might surpress cloud.

what odd runs... a high anchored on our doorstep for weeks...

[conor123]

ECM is rather chilly and by far the worst of the runs tonight.

Looks like other than Monday a decent enough week coming up for most, any sunshine in June feels warm, it only reached 17c here today for example but felt lovely in the sun.

[Frosty.]

i agree. if these are not good signs i dont know what is. clearly though, if 06z came off, for me it would have already been an improvement on those last few summers, however last year wasnt as bad, but i would still call it bad. as well as this, the gfs ensembles are quite consistent and none of the runs are up and down or all over. hardly any spike either! i really cannot wait till next week. hopefully a start of a new era. lets hope i didnt speak too soon.

More good signs from the GFS 12z, high pressure all the way through, warm days, some chilly nights, hardly any fronts to bother about, no spanish plumes to look forward to which is the only disappointment in my opinion.

[lukemc]

Would you expect the ECM to be a cool outlier I would think so (as that low does not seem to have support from the other models) - and is thier the possibility that we could have widespread 24-25 degrees C temperatures by the end of next week as IMO a summer without 25 degrees plus temps at least on some days is like a winter without frost and snow.

Anyway that low on the ECM is still quite far in FI so I don't think it has much chance of coming of as shown and the trend still seems to be towards warm, settled weather do you agree?

Luke

[mushymanrob]

Would you expect the ECM to be a cool outlier I would think so (as that low does not seem to have support from the other models) - and is thier the possibility that we could have widespread 24-25 degrees C temperatures by the end of next week as IMO a summer without 25 degrees plus temps at least on some days is like a winter without frost and snow.

Anyway that low on the ECM is still quite far in FI so I don't think it has much chance of coming of as shown and the trend still seems to be towards warm, settled weather do you agree?

Luke

the ukmo at +144 has a northerly as well, so i dont think the ecm is an outlier at that range. it might not what we want to believe, but both the ukmo and ecm at +144 have northerlies and would be cool.. this might well happen, however tomorrow mornings runs might well be different!

fi = forget it. it wont happen unless that moves into a reliable timeframe... thats unlikely atm

at best....pleasant.

Edited June 12, 2010 by mushymanrob

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hope ECMWF 12Z FI doesnt come off!, wimbledon roof will be closed on 1st 2 days

[SP1986]

I dont think the UKMO or ECM will come off as the only realistic evolution for me is the high to move over the UK, well either that, or a low move south and become trapped over the UK for a lengthy amount of time.

[SP1986]

Just a heads up, why we shouldn't be 'taken in' by GFS operational run temperature predictions..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs064.gif

The current situation heading to midnight..

www.xcweather.co.uk

well I'm being fair, I'm backing it up with evidence :-)

[Thundery wintry showers]

The projected setup is reminiscent of the synoptics that dominated much of June 1988. I wouldn't read too much into the infamously cyclonic July that followed (such pattern matching tends to break down sooner rather than later), but I'd read a fair amount into the fact that June 1988 was a warm dry sunny month over much of Scotland (especially towards the NW) and the far north of England, but a dull month over much of England especially towards the SE. The GFS 18Z indicates more cloud and suppressed temperatures coming into eastern England than was projected on earlier runs.

[londonsnow]

blimey, the gfs is bringing frost into the equation in FI for the north. highly unlikely, but not a good overall outlook. good for the gardens though

[Stormyking]

blimey, the gfs is bringing frost into the equation in FI for the north. highly unlikely, but not a good overall outlook. good for the gardens though

Lol, it dosen't look at very good run if anyone wants a long warm/hot spell or thundertorms, but still I know its FI but I think it would be awsome to see a frost at end of June which of coarse will not happen, but I love all types of weather so it would be interesting to see .

[mushymanrob]

the ukmo 00z isnt very inspiring with a stiff northerly from the far north, a large area of low pressure sinking south over scandi.. all by +120. fortunately the gfs 00z and ecm 00z dont agree and keep pressure high to our northwest and west.

the future development of this ridge? to me itll either retrogresses, opening the door for the stiff northerlies as suggested by the ukmo, or itll follow a path similar to what the gfs has often nhinted at...ie.. a breakaway area drifting eastwards over us and allowing a thundery breakdown from the south before the ridge re-builds. but before that, we should all enjoy a decent week if cloud doesnt plague us too much.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

COME ON ENGLAND!

I see that didn't work then?

Any clues as to when the ECM will be able to be viewed again???? SW and SW Wales looks best for month of June, there'll be some very very pleasant weather down there.

BFTP

[The Northern Ramper]

I see that didn't work then?

Any clues as to when the ECM will be able to be viewed again???? SW and SW Wales looks best for month of June, there'll be some very very pleasant weather down there.

BFTP

I am off to Devon next friday for the rest of June, starting to get quite hopeful for nice weather now.

[mushymanrob]

no change with the 06z out to +144 really. temps might not bu high, but itll be dry after tomorrow, bright and the air quality will be good.

[Frosty.]

The sight of blues over the uk on the gfs 6z in FI is pretty dire but it shows how the spring pattern is repeating itself again and again even into mid summer with a scandi trough and mid atlantic ridging, let's hope we get more of that in winter. The latest models all show the weather becoming more settled natiowide from tuesday with a fairly robust ridge covering the BI until next weekend at least, the gfs has changed in FI with a trend to more unsettled which it didn't have yesterday so the anticyclonic spell might only last a week instead of 2 weeks.

[SP1986]

I'm sure I'm an alternate reality compared to some...

The outlook is good with average temperatures and dry sunny weather for most, except in the east. Night temperatures can be ignored, sure they might be a little below average but not much.

I'm a little concerned that people think there will be a poor outlook based on the charts because this isn't true at all if you want typical British summery weather.

[Gordon]

you wouldn't believe it's the longest day in 8 days time

doesn't seem that long since the clocks went forward

soon all the summer persuits will be over

Wimbledon , World Cup , Twenty Twenty Cricket and the days will be drawing in

and before we know it Autumn will be here

It's off topic I know but I felt like rambling a little