Model Output Discussion

[rmc1987]

What charts are you looking at? I see plenty of wonderful summer like weather on the way. Temperatures very pleasant, perhaps turning very warm later. Do you prefer, ugly, fat lows over the UK with dull, drizzly garbage?

Plenty? What a week maybe! Actually that is plenty for UK tbf. Pleasant? Bar the breeze. Turning very warm, mmm maybe not.

Edited June 11, 2010 by rmc1987

[Bottesford]

Plenty? What a week maybe! Actually that is plenty for UK tbf. Pleasant? Bar the breeze. Turning very warm, mmm maybe not.

Perhaps you'd like to point to examples in the charts to back up what you're saying? We might see where you're coming from then.

[rmc1987]

Perhaps you'd like to point to examples in the charts to back up what you're saying? We might see where you're coming from then.

Well temps look to often fall just a bit below average with some cool nights too. Bit of a north easterly too so maybe there may not be bundles of sun about which I'd imagine won't feel that pleasant.

I can't quite see anything very warm on the charts.

Edited June 11, 2010 by rmc1987

[Kentish Kiwi]

Well temps look to often fall just a bit below average with some cool nights too. Bit of a north easterly too so maybe there may not be bundles of sun about which I'd imagine won't feel that pleasant.

I can't quite see anything very warm on the charts.

"temps look to often fall just a bit below average with some cool nights too"?? As Bottesford said, please, illustrate. Personally I don't know how your coming to that conclusion...

A widespread warm up looks the most likely outcome if anything, from what I can see, and temperatures haven't even been that much below average at all in the first place, apart from in the North-East.

Edited June 11, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi

[damianslaw]

No clear signals at this stage whether we will maintain only slight ridging of heights north and east preventing any real build up of warmth and consequently always at risk of showery airstreams from north west to north east quarters, or we will see sufficient ridging to help bring some warmer uppers and thereafter chance for some sustained warm if not very warm weather.

The atlantic remains very sluggish, nothing too unusual given the time of year, this factor should on paper be a good signal for some robust ridging of heights our way next week, but its by no means certain as we have seen over recent weeks and months, teleconnections have not been playing ball, the jet though unlike in recent months will be in a much more favourable position to deliver strong ridging..

In overview - very good potential for strong robust ridging of heights but by no means a dead cert.

The summer has started on a good note, the next couple of weeks should set the trend for the rest of the summer, so fingers crossed we see heights ridging robustly if your wanting sustained warm/very warm weather, me personally I'd be quite happy for heights to stay just to the west, I'm not a great heat lover.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Quite a significant difference between the 12z and the 18z at +144 which is even more noticeable at +168, with a low pressure and a north-easterly on the 12z replaced by high pressure and light winds on the 18z as the low pressure over the continent has less of an influence and as a result the heights to our west are able to make a good transition eastwards.

In the winter this would have been extremely important, with the GFS moving away from what would have been a full blown unstable NEerly, to a cold (in the winter) high pressure system and the easterly being moved into France.

This is also backed by the UKMO and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM with the GFS coming into line with the Euro's (on this run at least) regarding that +144-168 timeframe, an increasingly positive sign for more prolonged and better summery weather as that signal for a NE/E breeze off the North Sea continues to weaken.

[rmc1987]

"temps look to often fall just a bit below average with some cool nights too"?? As Bottesford said, please, illustrate. Personally I don't know how your coming to that conclusion...

A widespread warm up looks the most likely outcome if anything, from what I can see, and temperatures haven't even been that much below average at all in the first place, apart from in the North-East.

Average around here is about 20c for this time of year. Not sure about other parts of the country though.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100611/18/48/ukmintemp.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100611/18/69/ukmintemp.png

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100611/18/96/ukmintemp.png

EDIT: Oh My God!! I had this on UK min when looking at the temps, no wonder it looked below average in the bloomin' day!!!

So I see the average conditions but can't quite see it getting very warm. However, this run does appear to be warmer further out than the previous suggested.

Edited June 11, 2010 by rmc1987

[Thundery wintry showers]

go to the whinging thread would you! i don' have a clue what you are talking about, but this pattern ATM and so far is nothing like the last 3 summers at least,which is an improvement in my book!

if we can get to the end of this month with some dry and reasonably warm weather, then people need to agree that this month has no comparison to the last 3 summers at least for june.

June 2009 was warmer, drier and sunnier than average over large areas of the country, especially the west, so people won't need to agree with anything! In any case comparing June's patterns to the westerly winds, southerly tracking jet pattern of the last three summers is flawed in that the westerlies didn't set in during early June in either case. In 2007 they started up around mid-June, in 2008 the beginning of July, in 2009 the second week of July.

In general this thread could do with more discussion of the actual model outputs and less of the bickering over what is good, bad, summery, ugly, or whatever. There's a general banter thread for those.

The latest set of runs has significantly reduced the chances of a cool cloudy easterly or north-easterly coming off, with high pressure crucially placed further south on the UKMO, ECM and GFS 18Z. I think the high will retreat westwards at some point towards the last third of the month, but before that we could well have a few days to a week of dry, sunny and warm weather by day, with coolish nights, with the high pressure getting far east and south enough to prevent significant amounts of cloud from reaching the British Isles.

[risk of sleet]

Superb potential for summery weather in the 3 models we respect (UKMO, ECMWF & GFS) for the last few days. High pressure building, centred in the NW of the UK at 120 hrs. What could possibly go wrong? We've been here before - and don't you feel that the NWP models will enhance this summer weather as we go on in time? Ultimately though, there will come a time, in July when god decides enuff is enuff and it needs to rain very awfully to put us in our place? I think a village in Hampshire might suffer this year. Also Milton Keynes might disappear.

[mushymanrob]

hmmm.... im abit disappointed in this mornings runs that within a reliable/semi-reliable timeframe (out to c +144) have backed off the high drifting in over our north, heading eastwards. instead all three 'big guns' suggest an azores 'sausage' shaped high ridging in to our north west. this will keep a slack northeasterly for most of us (calmer in the north). there could be cloud problems which might spoil a potentially very pleasant summery spell.

fi looks more interesting, with the gfs and ecm hinting that high pressure could be around for some considerable time, eventually building some heat.

in all, slightly miffed that this mornings runs didnt follow last nights in bringing higher pressure over us heading east.. but happy enough with the suggested charts that will provide some pleasant summery weather, and at least its DRY! (yep after baying for rain to keep my business going, ive had enough now for a month or so!lol)

[Frosty.]

The GFS 00z is a very dry run, I don't think I have seen such a high pressure dominated run since..well yesterday Next week shows a strong ridge extending across the BI and pressure remains high, either around 1024mb or higher throughout which would be quite impressive, the only mild disappointment is that the high will not be favourably positioned for the uk to tap into a continental flow although that could easily change if we do become locked into a prolonged settled spell.

[The PIT]

GFS with a subtle change of wind direction would mean it's a sunnier run for us. A dry one though which again could cause problems in the future.

[Neilsouth]

GFS with a subtle change of wind direction would mean it's a sunnier run for us. A dry one though which again could cause problems in the future.

For some

Edited June 12, 2010 by neilsouth

[MR EXTREMES]

dunno what the fuss is lovely dry sunny weather warm but slightly below im sure this will change from time to time.

its good to see this average stuff more back to the 80s lol.

[SNOW GO]

Average looking model runs this morning with the GFS looking dry and settled with mild but not at this stage very warm conditions. Comfortable weather I guess.

[mushymanrob]

GFS with a subtle change of wind direction would mean it's a sunnier run for us. A dry one though which again could cause problems in the future.

i dont know how much rain you have had recently, but im ok here for a month before i start to worry. (i always reckon on getting 2 fortnightly mowing rounds in without rain before it causes problems, im sure we will get more rain within 4 weeks).

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z is another dry run with at least a ridge covering the uk for much of the time and only loosening it's grip occasionally but a very dry outlook which could potentially stretch into the last week of june and considering that july is currently expected to be drier than average, it could set a few alarm bells ringing, no sign of any real heat on this run but there should be above average amounts of sunshine, barely a trace of rain once we get through to tuesday onwards and temps will be in the pleasantly warm category but with occasional very warm days.

[SP1986]

No sign of heat but worryingly the trend is for little or no rain going out into the mid timeframe. If high pressure continues to assert its dominance, this year surely has a chance at being the driest on record.

[mushymanrob]

barely any change from about +144 out for the rest of the entire run... i cannot remember the last time we had what, 2 weeks plus of high pressure just sat closeby to our west as the 06z predicts. it will be very pleasant though, dispite no heatwave, temps lower 20's.

[thestixx]

No sign of heat but worryingly the trend is for little or no rain going out into the mid timeframe. If high pressure continues to assert its dominance, this year surely has a chance at being the driest on record.

Talk about putting the commentators curse on matters, Talk like that can surely only bring rain and lots of it in August

Edited June 12, 2010 by thestixx

[snowlover2009]

The GFS 06z is another dry run with at least a ridge covering the uk for much of the time and only loosening it's grip occasionally but a very dry outlook which could potentially stretch into the last week of june and considering that july is currently expected to be drier than average, it could set a few alarm bells ringing, no sign of any real heat on this run but there should be above average amounts of sunshine, barely a trace of rain once we get through to tuesday onwards and temps will be in the pleasantly warm category but with occasional very warm days.

i agree. if these are not good signs i dont know what is. clearly though, if 06z came off, for me it would have already been an improvement on those last few summers, however last year wasnt as bad, but i would still call it bad. as well as this, the gfs ensembles are quite consistent and none of the runs are up and down or all over. hardly any spike either! i really cannot wait till next week. hopefully a start of a new era. lets hope i didnt speak too soon.

P.S gorgeous here today. when the sun is in, it feels quite humidish. not cold at all. i could live with this for a week. but if i am correct, then any major warm up will be towards the end of the week once agin. the last 2 very warm/hot spells have always started at the end of the week and peaked at the weekend. lets hope this time we don't see a peak for a while. i think if we do get a strogn high like the gfs, then we could be onto some really summery weather! fantastic feel to today, people are out cutting their grass and hedges. the world cup tonight, can not feel any better. maybe its due to a postivive feedback from the job interview today haha

COME ON ENGLAND!

No sign of heat but worryingly the trend is for little or no rain going out into the mid timeframe. If high pressure continues to assert its dominance, this year surely has a chance at being the driest on record.

me and many others in the uk would be happy with that. i know its not good for plants, grass etc and water drying up, but we do deserve it don't we? however we may get compensated by thunderstorms? however it doesn't look likely with the outputs on the models.

Talk about putting the commentators curse on matters, Talk like that can surely only bring rain and lots of it in August

we have not had a decent august in years have we!? people may refer to summer of 2006, but i looked at the charts for that month and they are a bit crap. so last year was pretty bad, 2008 was bad, 2007 bad, and 2006 not particularly good. 2005, was that any good? by august i mean. 2004 was thundery, i hear.

Edited June 12, 2010 by snowlover2009

[Gavin P]

I wouldn't worry too much about droughts at this stage. My hunch is; once the La Nina gets going, the heavens should open in the second half of the year.

[snowlover2009]

I wouldn't worry too much about droughts at this stage. My hunch is; once the La Nina gets going, the heavens should open in the second half of the year.

is there any summers that have had la nina half way through and still brougth a ncie summer. I imagine, the next 2 months to be wetter than june, but no washout. occasional heatwaves, maybe like last year, but with more thunderstorms and less dreary depressing weather lasting for weeks. one thing i really cannot understand. ok if its cloudy, but usually when its warm and high pressure and you have cloud, it doesnt bother me because it doesnt look grim, but any other time i cannot abide it.

[rmc1987]

Looks like it will be fairly windy in these parts keeping temps lower than Western parts. So how pleasant it feels will depend on how bad that wind actually is and not being directly in it.

Weatheronline going with this set up too. So although I was looking at the UK min temps and had mistaken them for the max temps. The max temps look average maybe even below due to that pesky wind.

Edited June 12, 2010 by rmc1987

[SP1986]

Talk about putting the commentators curse on matters, Talk like that can surely only bring rain and lots of it in August

Last person who suggested curses and the like existed took the full wrath of my unadulterated scepticism.