Model Output Discussion

[reef]

Unfortunately north-easterly winds are not generally associated with sunshine nor pleasant weather as this week has clearly shown with constant low cloud & drizzle. A very weak easterly flow will indeed bring sunshine/low humidity assuming any low cloud can burn off. So hopefully we can get the centre of the high nearer to us and not too far north & west

Indeed, it has been far from 'comfortable' here this week. Before today's bright spells, we'd had no sign of the sun whatsoever since Saturday afternoon. Temperatures have been around 13-14C by day and 11-12C by night almost everyday which coupled with high humidity (always above 85%) has kept everything damp and caused mushrooms to grow in my garden, usually reserved for Autumn! Add on to that the nagging wind and its been an awful week and this comes from someone who isnt fond of heat!

[TonyH]

From experience i would say that a ne flow around a nearby high could see cloudy mornings and sunny afternoons in the midlands in June. Of course this will vary with some days largely cloudy and others where the sun gets to work earlier.

Anyway should not present a problem in west wales with a fine bright and quite warm spell in prospect.

[Big Innes Madori]

Not much difference between the GFS 00z & 06z with a very Anticyclonic outlook just about nailed on for next week although monday looks a bit showery for the southern half of the uk, beyond that looks dominated by high pressure, especially for the north, yes the north has an anticyclone for a change but southern britain could have a fresh E'ly or NE'ly breeze for most of next week which will keep a lid on the temps and cloudcover could be an irritation for some but scotland is currently looking the best place to be if the latest gfs runs are close to reality. Further into FI the good weather tends to become restricted to more southeastern areas.

Ah Frosty,

Some nice words of comfort for me there mate

I finish up today for a week's holiday and I am staying at home (day trip) type of week

Cheers

Big Innes

[Nick F]

Yes, low pressure never very far away from southern UK over France which may mean some showers or longer spells of rain for the far south especially later next week, as 06z GFS shows - though this may change to a drier picture for the south. On Monday we could see a few heavy showers over the SW and S of England as an upper low moves south. The Atlantic ridge extending NE does look to bring the best of dry and sunny weather for more northern and western areas, the brisk NE wind could however bring some troublesome cloud and damp, cool weather to S and SE UK, especially if fronts and warm moist air over the near continent gets caught in the flow off the North Sea. Otherwise not looking a bad week.

[johnholmes]

Indeed, it has been far from 'comfortable' here this week. Before today's bright spells, we'd had no sign of the sun whatsoever since Saturday afternoon. Temperatures have been around 13-14C by day and 11-12C by night almost everyday which coupled with high humidity (always above 85%) has kept everything damp and caused mushrooms to grow in my garden, usually reserved for Autumn! Add on to that the nagging wind and its been an awful week and this comes from someone who isnt fond of heat!

yes its a touch amusing when all the compliments to a pleasant/cool flow off the North Sea usually come from those not really living in the area but there we are.

I have to say to see the sun today is very pleasant after a coldish almost raw feel standing waiting for the bus this morning. I can cope with 2 or 3 days of the N-NE flow but any more and its a bit tiresome.

[Derp Patrol]

Yes, it's been a poor week here with grey cloud every day, very disappointing as we are at the height of summer where the days are at their longest, I have to cope with darkness enough during the winter! Temperature wise it has at least been average here, with 20-21C.

Edited June 11, 2010 by robthefool

[Thundery wintry showers]

Indeed, it has been far from 'comfortable' here this week. Before today's bright spells, we'd had no sign of the sun whatsoever since Saturday afternoon. Temperatures have been around 13-14C by day and 11-12C by night almost everyday which coupled with high humidity (always above 85%) has kept everything damp and caused mushrooms to grow in my garden, usually reserved for Autumn! Add on to that the nagging wind and its been an awful week and this comes from someone who isnt fond of heat!

I'm all too familiar with that scenario from years of living in the South Shields area- especially during easterly setups with a significant cyclonic influence to the south as per the last week. I note that Neil Bradshaw at South Shields recorded one maximum of 14C, one of 13C and three of 12C over that 5 day period. I may not be diagnosed with SAD but I often detect lesser versions of the same kind of symptoms after a prolonged spell of that weather!

Looking at the charts I agree with Nick F regarding Monday's convective potential for the SW which seems to have increased significantly on recent runs with low pressure closer by. Humidity outputs for the mid to latter part of next week suggest relatively low daily values just off the coast across NE Scotland and also East Anglia and the southeast, so those areas should end up largely free from low cloud if the GFS verifies, but there is a significant chance of low cloud affecting SE Scotland and NE England at times. The ECMWF has high pressure further south so I guess low cloud would be less of an issue under that setup.

[Eugene]

Unfortunately north-easterly winds are not generally associated with sunshine nor pleasant weather as this week has clearly shown with constant low cloud & drizzle. A very weak easterly flow will indeed bring sunshine/low humidity assuming any low cloud can burn off. So hopefully we can get the centre of the high nearer to us and not too far north & west

Yes spot on, yesterday was not pleasant with brisk northeasterlies and overcast conditions.

It seems sunday is looking unsettled and monday too in the midlands and southeast then settling down for a while.

[The PIT]

yes its a touch amusing when all the compliments to a pleasant/cool flow off the North Sea usually come from those not really living in the area but there we are.

I have to say to see the sun today is very pleasant after a coldish almost raw feel standing waiting for the bus this morning. I can cope with 2 or 3 days of the N-NE flow but any more and its a bit tiresome.

What happened to the glass half full approach ????

Anyway not totally convinced by the GFS. Temps recovering then falling away. I suspect it will be fairly cool in eastern areas nice and pleasant in the west and central areas depending on the sun burn off. So if could well be one hours sun bringing temps close to average while the rest of the day is fairly well below. Then it may not bring all the much cloud in we shall wait and see.

[mushymanrob]

whilst the 12z gfs toys with the idea of a possible warm up later into fi, the ukmo 12z now suggests pressure building over the northern half of the country by t144. that would result in some VERY nice sunshine and warmth. into fi and theres a huge build of temperature in the uppers over the near continent. it wouldnt take much of a synoptic shift for us to be in line for our share. in all, todays runs offer more hope for a decent settled sunny and warm spell.

Edited June 11, 2010 by mushymanrob

[ANYWEATHER]

From gfs outputs its clear to see if for instance we take the 12z that it is struggling along with the ecm too on how much that ridge is going to affect the BI. Only a few days ago it showed high pressure more or less in control from now to next week, where in realty the ridge has been downgraded and for Sun/Mon that upper low has been upgraded for even storm potential for some on Monday! It does look as though the NorthWest of the Uk will benefit from this setup with some fine weather, but that troublesome low over the continent looks as it might well affect the southern half of the uk given some time with storm potential now appearing on Thurs too, of course along way off still, but something to watch over the coming days!!

[conor123]

12z is yet another grotty run, it looks increasingly likely that after some nice sunshine tommorow another week of lead overcast skies and cool temperatures with the only nice days being when i don't home till 5pm.

[mushymanrob]

12z is yet another grotty run, it looks increasingly likely that after some nice sunshine tommorow another week of lead overcast skies and cool temperatures with the only nice days being when i don't home till 5pm.

thats a pessimistic view conor, besides the 12z isnt set in stone...by a mile... just look at the ukmo 12z.. much better and that might be the eventual outcome.

[mushymanrob]

oooh, the ecm is following the ukmo out to t120... but hiccups and seems to be reverting to the 00z by t144, but its not as 'bad' by t168... the brisk northerly has gone and a gentle one but with higher pressure builds in.

tentitive signes within a semi-reliable timeframe that a more 'summery' outlook might be on the cards for later next week

[Milhouse]

oooh, the ecm is following the ukmo out to t120... but hiccups and seems to be reverting to the 00z by t144, but its not as 'bad' by t168... the brisk northerly has gone and a gentle one but with higher pressure builds in.

tentitive signes within a semi-reliable timeframe that a more 'summery' outlook might be on the cards for later next week

Its miles better than recent runs and gives almost everywhere a share in the warmth, although the best of the warmth and sunshine will still be reserved for the west. And because the UKMO out to 144h also looks pretty decent I'm becoming more and more confident that next week will see a return to proper summer conditions for a good part of the country, especially later on.

[mushymanrob]

Its miles better than recent runs and gives almost everywhere a share in the warmth, although the best of the warmth and sunshine will still be reserved for the west. And because the UKMO out to 144h also looks pretty decent I'm becoming more and more confident that next week will see a return to proper summer conditions for a good part of the country, especially later on.

indeed, and fi on the ecm has the high slowly drifting eastwards across northern areas, plus theres a low developing off biscay/spain... IF this occurs then theres potential for a plume and thundery breakdown... but its a big 'if' atm.

signes are good though, now lets hope the gfs joins the party!

[ANYWEATHER]

As I mentioned in my earlier post "NO" model as got the jist of the up coming week! My take on it is that the models have been swinging [gfs/ecm] on every run lately for the upcoming week, really not sure to put the ridge!! Northwest looks best out of this set up but the "TREND" I see from the models that the southern half of the UK is likely to see less settled weather from a continental low which as certainly been hinted of by both models at some point several times, its a case of wait and see but as far as I can see this at the mo looks a realistc outcome?!

[SP1986]

ECM is not bad really but in fact very warm after 120 hours, however as has been said, the models are changing and will continue to change.

[Rob]

ECM is not bad really but in fact very warm after 120 hours, however as has been said, the models are changing and will continue to change.

agreed!

[rmc1987]

Wow the outlook looks pretty much utter tripe, to one looking for something summery.

You really couldn't make it up could you! In the weeks leading up to summer producing warm and sunny then June and it's not quite the same and it looks to remain that way! Autumn should be split in half, this being the mild half.

Aggh...rant over!

A better day tomorrow at least! Mmmm.

Edited June 11, 2010 by rmc1987

[Milhouse]

Wow the outlook looks pretty much utter tripe, to one looking for something summery.

You really couldn't make it up could you! In the weeks leading up to summer producing warm and sunny then June and it's not quite the same and it looks to remain that way! Autumn should be split in half, this being the mild half.

Aggh...rant over!

A better day tomorrow at least! Mmmm.

Are you Eugene in disguise?

[SP1986]

Wow the outlook looks pretty much utter tripe, to one looking for something summery.

You really couldn't make it up could you!

To be fair, I think you have! I'm clearly looking at different models to you! The outlook looks fair, nothing heatwave like but how do you define summery?

Sorry to disappoint but whats being shown is typically summery in a British sense!

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow the outlook looks pretty much utter tripe, to one looking for something summery.

You really couldn't make it up could you! In the weeks leading up to summer producing warm and sunny then June and it's not quite the same and it looks to remain that way! Autumn should be split in half, this being the mild half.

Aggh...rant over!

A better day tomorrow at least! Mmmm.

What charts are you looking at? I see plenty of wonderful summer like weather on the way. Temperatures very pleasant, perhaps turning very warm later. Do you prefer, ugly, fat lows over the UK with dull, drizzly garbage?

Edited June 11, 2010 by Blizzards

[MP-R]

Not commenting specifically on the models but after an admittedly chilly early morning until 10am, when the sun came out it actually felt lovely - the air from the NE is clear and the sun is really quite strong so although it only reached 21.5C, it felt much warmer than that sat in the sun.

On that, the models aren't that bad at all for those away from the continental low to the very south.

[Kentish Kiwi]

A thoroughly pleasant outlook from the ECM and UKMO out to +144 with the ECM continuing the high pressure theme with its run only getting better in terms of warmth as it goes on. Pretty summery if you ask me, with no real sign of the Atlantic making inroads and the jet well to the north of the UK (for once!) something we have rarely seen in the last few years. Best of the weather seems likely to be around the West Midlands and into Wales.

From a SE point of view I am slightly worried about the high being just that little bit too far north which would lead to a breeze off the North Sea and a reasonable chance of cloud. That said, at this time of the year a flow off the North Sea doesn't always mean cloud, a number of factors will influence where (or if) the cloud becomes a problem and it could well be a case of morning cloud being burnt of into the afternoon. A positive sign/trend is that the last few runs have placed the high a little further south, leading to a weaker wind and higher pressure which will not only lead to less cloud, but also increase the chances of it being burnt off. I guess we'll know more nearer the time around Monday/Tuesday...

Anyone have any thoughts on that cloud that has a chance of spoiling things for us down here and along the east coast, if it is a case of cloud off the North Sea, how far is it likely to make it inland with such a strong, high sun?

Edited June 11, 2010 by Kentish Kiwi