Convective Outlook

[Lewis]

Advice needed. Are storms looking likely for Lincs and E Yorks this evening, or am i sitting out here for nothing?

It seems to have gone very quiet, albeit cloudy.

Hi mate, I would go home, put the kettle on watch the radar.

They should be some more precipitation about after midnight, although any embedded or isolated storms that do break out will be elevated as surface based CAPE is very low if 0, although there is good amounts of mid level cape.

Regards

[Ian Fergusson]

im right on the borders of getting the MCS tonight HOPEFULLY i do, still alot of convection around here though with hazy skies!

fingers corssed

UKMO models aren't eager about developing any MCS here whatsoever (different story, perhaps, over on the near continent). But we'll see - all subject to doubt. Each model run offers somewhat different solutions. Important to distinguish this messy destabilisation / evolution tonight from 'classic' Spanish Plume etc. Plenty of time to see this through the coming Summer....

[loopydreamer]

Looks more like an early morning than a late nighter to me.

Morning thunderstorms, haven't had them in a while.

yep! u r right! it will be pretty slow moving! i'll probably be up all night tracking the storms as they approach!

[Lynxus]

Id be very shocked if the stuff coming into the SW / Cornwall didn't produce a few sferics over the next hour or two.

Some big convection down there and some quite intense showers popping up.

[Ian Fergusson]

UKMO models aren't eager about developing any MCS here whatsoever (different story, perhaps, over on the near continent). But we'll see - all subject to doubt. Each model run offers somewhat different solutions. Important to distinguish this messy destabilisation / evolution tonight from 'classic' Spanish Plume etc. Plenty of time to see this through the coming Summer....

Oh and PS - for those eager (especially in my region) for MCS action, I refer to the very latest briefing we've had from UKMO re Tuesday's evolution... quote:

"Once main vortex has arrived in the SW on Tuesday, there is an increasing risk of surface based deep convective cells, especially towards the SW of England. These could be slow-moving and organised into MCS-style clusters."

All is not lost....

[Kent Snow]

Altocumulus castellanus with fall streaks edging towards Canterbury. Still 22C and blooming humid.

[Costa Del Fal]

Id be very shocked if the stuff coming into the SW / Cornwall didn't produce a few sferics over the next hour or two.

Some big convection down there and some quite intense showers popping up.

Does loook quite strong doesnt it. Really is just a game of wait and see tbh however my hopes arent high.

[pinball wizard]

Hi Ian, in your post below where you talk of storms coming thru east kent, thames estuary and sussex/norfolk did you intentionally miss out Suffolk? Just curious to know what could happen where I am. Cheers.

Well, I was just reading the latest briefing from the Chief F/C at Ops Centre and viewing his modified NAE graphics.... the thrust of things remains distinctly easterly for tonight in those areas previously discussed on this forum, as the upper trough arrives tonight across the SW (and it still hasn't arrived, in case people were getting vexed)..... signal for some heavy rain and showers into various parts of the west tomorrow however, but low confidence remains a key point of emphasis in terms of spatial / temporal detail.

The general theme, for all, is showery outbreaks becoming more prevalent overnight; the fresher, cooler feel being very marked tomorrow and equally, a widespread threat of showers / rain, some heavy and perhaps thundery.

Incidentally, the latest high-res models continue to offer a very thundery-looking aspect to the plume emerging northwards into E Kent, up across the Thames Estuary into E Essex and Sussex / Norfolk through the early hours (current timing suggests arrival through E Kent around 01 - 0400 BST).

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi Ian, in your post below where you talk of storms coming thru east kent, thames estuary and sussex/norfolk did you intentionally miss out Suffolk? Just curious to know what could happen where I am. Cheers.

Actually I meant Suffolk!! Apols.

LATEST LIGHTNING is.......

approx 500m north of the village of Dunstall Green, east of Newmarket / south of A14, for those of you chasing any T-storms....!

[loopydreamer]

temp 23.1C

dew point rising now 8C

humidity rising now 37%

i cant believe it temp has risen 2C

im not knowledgable to identify cloud types but lets just say clouds have become grey and wispy lol!

[stormnut]

Loads of jelly fish clouds here.

[coldfingers]

Oh Rats the netweather storm forecast area just touches Selsey west of here. Does that mean West Sussex has only a limited chance of seeing any storms.

A lot of large cumulous were building half an hour ago but now seem to be merging into a generally murky sky. Temp here is only 17.5 with 76% humidity so perhaps it is getting too cool for storms?

Also does anyone have a link to lightning recorders or radar over North France, channel area? Thanks in advance if you do and could post it.

[Tim B]

Gone all quiet now and I have a headache but at least I can see blue sky again.

[dogs32]

Oh and PS - for those eager (especially in my region) for MCS action, I refer to the very latest briefing we've had from UKMO re Tuesday's evolution... quote:

"Once main vortex has arrived in the SW on Tuesday, there is an increasing risk of surface based deep convective cells, especially towards the SW of England. These could be slow-moving and organised into MCS-style clusters."

All is not lost....

thx for the heads up.....will keep watching this space

[Ian Fergusson]

Oh Rats the netweather storm forecast area just touches Selsey west of here. Does that mean West Sussex has only a limited chance of seeing any storms.

A lot of large cumulous were building half an hour ago but now seem to be merging into a generally murky sky. Temp here is only 17.5 with 76% humidity so perhaps it is getting too cool for storms?

Also does anyone have a link to lightning recorders or radar over North France, channel area? Thanks in advance if you do and could post it.

Nothing taken for granted in current forecast evolution (Re Sussex).

For radar / SFERICS: various sources, not least here via Netweather..... otherwise suggest http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur and zoomable function.

[Wilxy]

It cleared a bit this evening with some sunshine but now the milky sky is returning but also a thundery sky again.

[coldfingers]

Loads of jelly fish clouds here.

Am I missing something? What are jellyfish clouds? Sounds fun.

[Lewis]

Very quiet here now.

Just baking a devils chocolate cake with the miss's whilst keep running back to the computer looking at the radar.

I doubt any areas N of the East Midlands will see any storms. Just some possible heavy rain.

Ill keep checking the radar though, I hope Ian Ferguson is correct about our area seeing some precipitation in the early hours. I don't know what happened, I was one of the prime locations.

Looking ahead theres plenty of hot weather on its way establishing its self next weekend, so fingers crossed we can tap into a nice Plume

[Ian Fergusson]

Am I missing something? What are jellyfish clouds? Sounds fun.

Typically Altocumulus castellanus with virga (precip falling but evaporating). They're rather quaint.

[coldfingers]

Nothing taken for granted in current forecast evolution (Re Sussex).

For radar / SFERICS: various sources, not least here via Netweather..... otherwise suggest http://www.meteox.co...&soort=loop1uur and zoomable function.

Many thanks for that link Ian. Isn't the netweather one premium? Which sadly i can't afford.

Typically Altocumulus castellanus with virga (precip falling but evaporating). They're rather quaint.

Fantastic, just checked that on google images. Never seen them before.

[Guest FireStorm]

Btw, for those who subscribe to nw extra or lite, I've just set the lightning detector to update every 2 minutes (was 5 minutes), this is a bit of an experiment so not certain to continue, but available to use tonight at the very least:

Excellent. Shall be having that open even more often tonight!

[Ian Fergusson]

Ill keep checking the radar though, I hope Ian Ferguson is correct about our area seeing some precipitation in the early hours. I don't know what happened, I was one of the prime locations.

??? Urmmmm..... I just checked radar loop back since 20:00hrs and some of the best cells anywhere in England have been above Hull and now are out just offshore into the North Sea

(PS: I again emphasise the critical discrimination between heavy showers and thunderstorms... the latter is a different matter to guarantee! But the NAE / UKV highlighting of Hull and environs has looked pretty good from where I'm watching the radar....)

[Lewis]

??? Urmmmm..... I just checked radar loop back since 20:00hrs and some of the best cells anywhere in England have been above Hull and now are out just offshore into the North Sea

(PS: I again emphasise the critical discrimination between heavy showers and thunderstorms... the latter is a different matter to guarantee! But the NAE / UKV highlighting of Hull and environs has looked pretty good from where I'm watching the radar....)

My apologies Ian,

I was trying to emphasize the lack of anything thundery, they was certainly convective showers, but what with the moisture, and the heat (with CAPE) both surface based and mixed-level, along with a negative lifted index, what was the missing ingredients, something stopped the trigger from pulling.

Is it because of the pressure? With HP still more or less in-charge with pressure dropping from the South?

Please forgive me

regards

Edited June 5, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Ian Fergusson]

An example of how things can develop pretty quickly- heavy shower just developed with the space of a few minutes north of Banbury, Oxfordshire. Now just split into two showers. Potential for thunderstorms exists well into tonight and through tomorrow morning. Another chance for thunderstorms across central and eastern parts during afternoon tomorrow.

Quick indeed; first bouts of (regular) lightning suddenly now lighting-up the ATDNet system in the SE quadrant of the Brest Peninsula, south of Pontivy....a foretaste for the SE of England, perhaps? We shall see.....

[A.J]

An example of how things can develop pretty quickly- heavy shower just developed with the space of a few minutes north of Banbury, Oxfordshire. Now just split into two showers. Potential for thunderstorms exists well into tonight and through tomorrow morning. Another chance for thunderstorms across central and eastern parts during afternoon tomorrow.

That cells's tapping into some decent energy in the area (400j/kg's) also according to the 1000hpa winds, there's a small surface feature thats providing the energy by the looks of things...