Winter 2010/11

[SnowBorder]

Personally, I think we will have another cold winter lined up.

My reasoning: I live by a large lake near the foot of the North Downs, Kent.

Yesterday afternoon/early evening, I must have witnessed 300+ flying geese making a huge noise and heading south. One flock, followed by another flock 10 minutes later, followed by another' etc

I have lived in this area for over 15 years and during this time I have noted the geese normally fly past late August/early September. To me, their migration signifies that summer is ending soon.

Walking the dog last night, it was humid and the sun was very strong at 7pm, which added to my confusion:

Why are the geese leaving so early this year? especially as the weather is due to get warmer in the next 7 days.

My conclusion: A cold winter is coming. I have no idea whether it will be a dry/wet period, but I geniunely believe it is going to be a cold one.

[Gray-Wolf]

I worry , as some of you no doubt know, about the changes we are witnessing across the Arctic. We are into our 8th year where we expect to see the 'Arctic Amplification' delay the onset of re-freeze in some areas of the pole and the 'warming' this causes to the air above the pole may well impact on the state of the Arctic Oscillation (the warmer ,less dense air leading to another period of 'enhanced' A.O. as we saw in 09/10).

If the loss of sea ice is now really impacting the circulation up there then maybe we can expect a winter with a flavour of the cold outbreaks of 08/09 and 09/10?

With another strong -ve A.O. we can expect cold arctic air spilling down over NW Europe/N. America/Asia giving cold/snowy outbreaks yet again.......I only hope the gritting situation is better than last year!!!

[Nick L]

I worry , as some of you no doubt know, about the changes we are witnessing across the Arctic. We are into our 8th year where we expect to see the 'Arctic Amplification' delay the onset of re-freeze in some areas of the pole and the 'warming' this causes to the air above the pole may well impact on the state of the Arctic Oscillation (the warmer ,less dense air leading to another period of 'enhanced' A.O. as we saw in 09/10).

If the loss of sea ice is now really impacting the circulation up there then maybe we can expect a winter with a flavour of the cold outbreaks of 08/09 and 09/10?

With another strong -ve A.O. we can expect cold arctic air spilling down over NW Europe/N. America/Asia giving cold/snowy outbreaks yet again.......I only hope the gritting situation is better than last year!!!

Let's be honest, it can't be any worse!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Let's be honest, it can't be any worse!

Not unless they have to resort to putting on the roads!

[CJWRC]

Let's be honest, it can't be any worse!

You should have been in Ireland last year then from the first day the snow fell on 17th December to the middle of jan not once were the main comuter roads from rosslare europort to dublin or cork gritted , theses roads are usually unbeleivebly busy at boat times , but yet the council tought it was fine to let the cars flatten down some tracks in the snow for themselves! Irish local goverment is a joke! If only the army could take control!

Gritting might not have done anything but it was worth a try!

Edited August 9, 2010 by CJWRC

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the drive to 'privatise gritting' in the UK underlay last years pathetic efforts. If we are returning to cold snowy winters will this entice folk to buy into gritting (Homer J's "Mr Plough" springs to mind....) or put them off?

Will local business pay to have their bit of road cleared or is it just a waste of money if the next section of road is impassible?

[weather eater]

I hope we are not going to regret the chance to buy a cheap snowplough for the Landrover a couple of years ago, we helped plenty of people last year, but we could have done more had we brought the plough.

[weathe20]

Hi guys and girls,

I love this time of year (sometimes) when the warm fans are getting desperate for hot weather and are arguing over the model output trying to find that heat wave! The reason why I say this is because they do the opposite to us cold lovers towards the end of Feb! Bring on the first frost, this summer is wimpering out as usual!

[weather eater]

Hi guys and girls,

I love this time of year (sometimes) when the warm fans are getting desperate for hot weather and are arguing over the model output trying to find that heat wave! The reason why I say this is because they do the opposite to us cold lovers towards the end of Feb! Bring on the first frost, this summer is wimpering out as usual!

It is possible to be a fan of both warm and cold weather in the correct season, I would love some late summer heat, but I will also be more than happy with an even colder winter than last year if possible.

[Derp Patrol]

I only stop looking for cold weather at the end of February because after that it rarely brings lying snowfall here, and although I love snow, i'd rather not freeze to death every time I walk out of the house! I still look for warm weather even in October and relish the last few 20C days in October because snow is impossible in this area up to then, and after mid October it is still exceptionally rare.

[Iceni]

I hope we are not going to regret the chance to buy a cheap snowplough for the Landrover a couple of years ago, we helped plenty of people last year, but we could have done more had we brought the plough.

Our local farmer helpfully snow-ploughed the lane (which is never gritted, ever) for the few houses which live along it — and got told off for it <_<

The council were worried he'd 'damage the road'. This was absolute rubbish as it was already covered in pot holes from the previous couple of years' winters. They really made me angry as after a couple of cars go over the fresh snow it packs down into an ice rink and the only safe place to walk is the middle section where the tyres haven't been — not exactly a very good idea either.

It is possible to be a fan of both warm and cold weather in the correct season, I would love some late summer heat, but I will also be more than happy with an even colder winter than last year if possible.

Just like me. I guess I'm a Continental weather fan.

Although I love English summers when there's a bit of rain for a couple of days then some warm sun for a week or so — this year's been a bit samey, just drought drought drought in my location.

Winter cannot possibly be too cold — minus 10C most days from December to January would be my idea of heaven (but as you may have guessed I've got a well-insulated house ).

[summer blizzard]

I have just been looking at the data and extrapolations for the QBO and MEI, so some interesting points of note.

The westerly QBO will actually favour lower pressure in the Tropics, this is actually a good thing as the net result will be a displaced high pressure zone northward, as oppossed to the usual result when combined with El Nino which is for a long track of warm air from the Azores, commonly reffered to as a blowtorch, the signal for a mid-lattitude high will actually be enhanced by the La Nina event which usually gives above average heights at mid to high lattitudes, the difference here being that due to the +QBO, heights will be low over the Arctic.

The reason for telling you all this is because we do have one clear signal which is regardless of the temperature outcome a dryer than average winter is indicated, the problem being that there is no clear signal as to which side of the block we are on.

The key to finding out the temperature outcome for this winter is to examine the effects of the strengthening and weakening of the La Nina and QBO. If both strengthen, we stay dry with the high probably bang on top of us, if La Nina weakens first, it is highly likely that we will see a warmer and wetter end to winter, while if the QBO weakens first it is likely that we will see a colder and drier end to winter.

[CJWRC]

I have just been looking at the data and extrapolations for the QBO and MEI, so some interesting points of note.

The westerly QBO will actually favour lower pressure in the Tropics, this is actually a good thing as the net result will be a displaced high pressure zone northward, as oppossed to the usual result when combined with El Nino which is for a long track of warm air from the Azores, commonly reffered to as a blowtorch, the signal for a mid-lattitude high will actually be enhanced by the La Nina event which usually gives above average heights at mid to high lattitudes, the difference here being that due to the +QBO, heights will be low over the Arctic.

The reason for telling you all this is because we do have one clear signal which is regardless of the temperature outcome a dryer than average winter is indicated, the problem being that there is no clear signal as to which side of the block we are on.

The key to finding out the temperature outcome for this winter is to examine the effects of the strengthening and weakening of the La Nina and QBO. If both strengthen, we stay dry with the high probably bang on top of us, if La Nina weakens first, it is highly likely that we will see a warmer and wetter end to winter, while if the QBO weakens first it is likely that we will see a colder and drier end to winter.

Thanks sb

[Derp Patrol]

A winter as good as last year is very unlikely, but this winter i'd prefer more of a mix.. I love the occasional very mild days when it's 15C and mild enough to wear a T Shirt, although that is usually in the form of cloudy wet weather from the SW. I'd love some repeat performances of this year, but at times it just went on for too long and got a bit tiresome.

[Nights King]

A winter as good as last year is very unlikely, but this winter i'd prefer more of a mix.. I love the occasional very mild days when it's 15C and mild enough to wear a T Shirt, although that is usually in the form of cloudy wet weather from the SW. I'd love some repeat performances of this year, but at times it just went on for too long and got a bit tiresome.

I would love a repeat performance of last year but with a little bit more in the way of heavy snow fall from stalling atlantic fronts. I would be happy with a dry but very cold winter though and although I work outside I would be more than happy to see snow and/or ice last all winter without a real thaw! I sure hope at least the first half of winter is cold because i have done my garden centre budgets lower with that in mind. :blush::blink:

[Costa Del Fal]

Id love a winter like last year but beyond February id rather Spring sweep in ans snow struggles to settle or doesnt last long and by then ive had enough of the cold. Despite many snow days last winter we didnt actually beat the previous years highest snowfall total!

We missed the worst of the snow by a close shave many times (no surprise there!) so id like a more direct it of any snow this year!

[weather eater]

Our local farmer helpfully snow-ploughed the lane (which is never gritted, ever) for the few houses which live along it — and got told off for it

The council were worried he'd 'damage the road'. This was absolute rubbish as it was already covered in pot holes from the previous couple of years' winters. They really made me angry as after a couple of cars go over the fresh snow it packs down into an ice rink and the only safe place to walk is the middle section where the tyres haven't been — not exactly a very good idea either.

Just like me. I guess I'm a Continental weather fan.

Although I love English summers when there's a bit of rain for a couple of days then some warm sun for a week or so — this year's been a bit samey, just drought drought drought in my location.

Winter cannot possibly be too cold — minus 10C most days from December to January would be my idea of heaven (but as you may have guessed I've got a well-insulated house :blush:).

Yep sounds good, add a really good gale or two during the autumn, perfect.

[La Bise]

Yup, sign me up too. I've got a new tent (and probably sleeping bag)to test this winter and I need proper conditions (snow storm one day/-15c the day after....would be perfect) up the moors...

[gsteruk]

hey all,

first post here - love the winter weather discussions here!

im in central scotland, and last years winter weather was the best i can remember for a long time. 09's weather was good, but strangely not for scotland - we usually get the brunt of it. weather just now confuses me, very warm and humid, but wet and windy at the same time - most unpleasant!

just thought i too would add my vote for another wild year like last year, the more thick snow and ice the better!

[Jack Wales]

hey all,

first post here - love the winter weather discussions here!

im in central scotland, and last years winter weather was the best i can remember for a long time. 09's weather was good, but strangely not for scotland - we usually get the brunt of it. weather just now confuses me, very warm and humid, but wet and windy at the same time - most unpleasant!

just thought i too would add my vote for another wild year like last year, the more thick snow and ice the better!

Welcome to Net Weather gsteruk. You certainly had a good time of it last winter, what part of central scotland are you from?

[gsteruk]

thanks!

Yeah last winter was awesome, how winter should be. fingers and toes crossed its the same again this time around. im in edinburgh area

[Glacier Point]

Couple of things to keep an eye on w/r/t sea surface temperature anomalies over the next month or so which will have a bearing on the winter pattern.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

That large warm anomaly centred over the northern Pacific is very likely to persist and even strengthen over the next few weeks (the anticipated autumn pressure pattern will reinforce this). This means that we may well go into winter with an extremely negative or cold PDO signal.

Also, in the Atlantic, some cooling is now showing up over the Canaries towards Iberia, an indication that the + Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is waning and beginning to shift towards a neutral phase. 1955 / 1956 provides a lot of clues right now. What does this mean ? Take a look at the CFS plots for pressure anomalies for the winter for what this might translate to:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

[gsteruk]

im the first to admit i know absolutley zero about long range forecasts, or forecasting of any kind. What has occured to me this year on this forum, is that there seems to be much more certainty that this year will have a good chance of some severe winter weather. it is only august, but in the scheme of things i guess winter isnt so very far away

[azores92]

Couple of things to keep an eye on w/r/t sea surface temperature anomalies over the next month or so which will have a bearing on the winter pattern.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

That large warm anomaly centred over the northern Pacific is very likely to persist and even strengthen over the next few weeks (the anticipated autumn pressure pattern will reinforce this). This means that we may well go into winter with an extremely negative or cold PDO signal.

Also, in the Atlantic, some cooling is now showing up over the Canaries towards Iberia, an indication that the + Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is waning and beginning to shift towards a neutral phase. 1955 / 1956 provides a lot of clues right now. What does this mean ? Take a look at the CFS plots for pressure anomalies for the winter for what this might translate to:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

hmm the CFS charts dont excite me greatly wrt a strongly negative NAO, it seems that the mid atlantic high could be prominent this winter, starting off near to the azores and retrogressing further north with time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is possible to be a fan of both warm and cold weather in the correct season, I would love some late summer heat, but I will also be more than happy with an even colder winter than last year if possible.

In addition, it's also posssible to be a fan of both warm and cold weather in a given season, and to be a fan of out-of-season weather. This year was particularly bad for my pet hate of "if you enjoy snow, it's fine until the end of February, but after that it's heartless and selfish, you're enjoying excess deaths to wildlife caused by late snowfalls, get some sense and move on, spring is about warm settled weather" etc.

I know some people who would welcome snowstorms in the middle of summer! Even I don't go that far, although I would welcome something one-off like 2nd June 1975.

The parallel with 1955/1956 is noteworthy. I think 1956/57 was quite a mild winter overall, with just a half-hearted wintry incursion in mid February, but 1955/56 of course had that freeze-up during February and repeated snowstorms in the north during December 1955, though that month was mild & wet in the south.