Winter 2010/11

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Unbelievable, it's the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

[summer blizzard]

Unbelievable, it's the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

Indeed, by August 2005 they had to create a winter sub-forum for the ramping.

Not going to stick my neck out because the two main anologues for the May-June period bore the winters of 1985 (stunner) and 2002 (appaling), so with no continuity i can't really make a cast iron prediction.

Combination of neutral/positive QBO and strengthening La Nina leads me to believe a winter like 2009, so colder first half, warmer second.

[Nights King]

Seems all abit early but Joe B is again going for a colder than average winter in his prelim thoughts -

"In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold."

I know alot of people slate this guy but he has done very well for summer and winter forecasts over the last couple of years now so you never know we could get a 3rd cold winter in a row.....

[Geordiesnow]

Joe B ALWAYS predicts a cold winter though, although to be fair to him, he does use his thoughts and knowledge to back his claims up and i suppose he indeed got last winter accurate unlike the UKMO!

However its just like Ian Brown with his "modern E(ra)" theory, neither will back down and i suspect Ian will be forecasting a mild winter this year too.

I'm sure we will hear more about this and the thoughts and expectations of winter as we head through the Autumn period. Be interesting what people will be expecting, will expectations increase because of last winter being so cold?

For me personally, I'd like too see a true stright Northerly from the Arctic which gradually weakens after 2-3 days as we aint seen one of these for such a while now, previous ones have been messy with shortwaves or just a quick toppler. I also would not mind seeing an Easterly which brings the -15Hpa temp hitting the UK.

Edited July 13, 2010 by Geordiesnow

[Thundery wintry showers]

Such northerlies have indeed been relatively rare in recent years, but there was one last winter- 29th January to 1st February. The night of the 29th/30th January had heavy snowstorms near the North Sea coast that delivered 4-6 inches of snow cover.

[snowray]

Very cold with widespread snowfall, some crisp winter sunshine in the East at first, blizzards in the west Country with areas around Bath to Exeter being particularly effected by mid winter with 6 foot snow drifts at the very least, low temps generally, lots of snow flurries and showers some heavy at times, remaining cold going into March.

[Guest]

Unbelievable, it's the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

Mmmm. Snow.

I expect a very stormy winter this year. Some snow but loads and loads of wind storms. Last winter was all very well being cold but it was actually quite boring:

Day 7: Frost

Day 8: Frost with a flake of snow

Day 9: Frost with fog

Day 10: Fog with some snow (My eldest son calls that "SNOG")

Day 11: Overcast with some freezing drizzle

Day 12: Freezing drizzle with some cloud

Day 13: Snow with cloud and some drizzly fog

Day 14: Frost

Day 15: Some sun but misty with fog and then some sun but then fog

Day 16: Sunny but frosty early and late and some fog at late o'clock

Day 17: Fine and dry but forsty

Blah, blah, blah

[Winter Warmer]

yes!! i have been waiting for this topic to start......dare not start it myself lol

[Weather-history]

Joe B ALWAYS predicts a cold winter though,

Does he?

According to this blog, he doesn't

My link

Replace laminate floori with his surname in the url

Why B astard is filtered I do not know, it is a word in the English language without the swear content.

Edited July 14, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Radiating Dendrite]

Loving the new thread!

Hopefully a winter like last year, I will never forget Christmas (which I spent in Leeds). Lying snow when I got there (21st) and then heavy snow Christmas eve and a magical white Christmas with a lovely walk in a complete winter wonderland!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Last winter was great, no doubts about that, but bl**dy hard work as well. I spent Nov' to April defrosting water troughs for ponies, chickens and dogs, humping masses of hay around the paddocks and generally trying to keep the lanes open around here. At one stage I had 40cms in my garden !!!

More of the same please.....LOL

[Methuselah]

Seems all abit early but Joe B is again going for a colder than average winter in his prelim thoughts -

"In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold."

I know alot of people slate this guy but he has done very well for summer and winter forecasts over the last couple of years now so you never know we could get a 3rd cold winter in a row.....

That's one prediction I get right every year, 100%...Joe B's going for cold!!! :lol:

[Gavin P]

Can't deny that since last summers NOT the BBQ summer prediction Joe's been having a fantastic run with his longer range forecasts. One of the few forecasters to call last winter correctly and to say this would be a hot European summer.

Winter 2010/2011 will be a real puzzle. Strong La Nina Vs -NAO. Somethings got to give.

[Schnee]

Why does there always seem to be a strengthening La Nina for Winter?

[Gilly]

Not unusual to get a second bad winter following.........Whatever it is, we cant change it! .

[Don]

Why does there always seem to be a strengthening La Nina for Winter?

To keep us on our toes! There was a strengthening El Nino for last Winter. Always seems to be one or the other!

[Eugene]

I'd like too see a true stright Northerly from the Arctic which gradually weakens after 2-3 days as we aint seen one of these for such a while now, previous ones have been messy with shortwaves or just a quick toppler. I also would not mind seeing an Easterly which brings the -15Hpa temp hitting the UK.

Likewise i'd like to see a true straight southerly from north africa which gradually weakens after 2 to 3 days which we havent seen in ages, previous ones were moderated too much from the southwest and with no proper thundery breakdown, actually here none at all, i would also like a hot southeasterly which brings 15C+ hPa air to the UK so more places outside the southeast can enjoy temps into the early 30's C.

[Cookie]

I was hoping for a mild winter, more gales and rain. I could do without another winter like the last one.

[Cheese Rice]

Hopefully a winter like last year, I will never forget Christmas (which I spent in Leeds). Lying snow when I got there (21st) and then heavy snow Christmas eve and a magical white Christmas with a lovely walk in a complete winter wonderland!

Yes hopefully 6 inches of snow on Christmas day.

Christmas eve in Leeds

Edited July 14, 2010 by 10123

[arcticadventurer]

Some American sites are suggesting a weak to moderate La Nina, negative NAO which would last till mid march and also a negative AO. Early days yet but none the less a sobering thought.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yes hopefully 6 inches of snow on Christmas day.

Christmas eve in Leeds

Thanks for the pics, certainly brings back the memories!

How I would love for that to happen again!

With a possible La Nina, negative AO and NAO then we may be needing a JCB this year and not just a shovel!

[noggin]

Lovely to have a Winter thread! Will have to start a "First Signs Of Autumn" thread soon, too. I was thinking about that the other day!

Because I feel that we are on a cooling path (and I thought this about 4 years ago), I am plumping for another cold one and shall soon be going to Wickes to see if I can get some rock salt stuff, as it's a heck of a job to get onto my drive when the road and pavement are covered in snow, due to the angle at which I have to approach it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Lovely to have a Winter thread! Will have to start a "First Signs Of Autumn" thread soon, too. I was thinking about that the other day!

Because I feel that we are on a cooling path (and I thought this about 4 years ago), I am plumping for another cold one and shall soon be going to Wickes to see if I can get some rock salt stuff, as it's a heck of a job to get onto my drive when the road and pavement are covered in snow, due to the angle at which I have to approach it.

Sounds like a plan!

Best thing about winter for me (apart from the obvious) is the fact that Netweather really comes alive! Don't get me wrong, it is great in summer but I think it has that extra buzz in the winter, especially the model thread!

[Don]

Thanks for the pics, certainly brings back the memories!

How I would love for that to happen again!

Me too, although I won't be getting my hopes up before December!

Edited July 15, 2010 by Don

[CJWRC]

Sounds like a plan!

Best thing about winter for me (apart from the obvious) is the fact that Netweather really comes alive! Don't get me wrong, it is great in summer but I think it has that extra buzz in the winter, especially the model thread!

Remeber the buzz when the first signs of northern blocking started to show at the start of December? Model thread was electric!

Who did that forecast here on netweather last autumn , what a fantastic forecast , informative and CORRECT!

Some American sites are suggesting a weak to moderate La Nina, negative NAO which would last till mid march and also a negative AO. Early days yet but none the less a sobering thought.

Were can I find these long term forecast for NAO and AO , NOAA only forecast for a week or two ahead.