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Winter 2010/11


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Unbelievable, it's the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

Indeed, by August 2005 they had to create a winter sub-forum for the ramping.

Not going to stick my neck out because the two main anologues for the May-June period bore the winters of 1985 (stunner) and 2002 (appaling), so with no continuity i can't really make a cast iron prediction.

Combination of neutral/positive QBO and strengthening La Nina leads me to believe a winter like 2009, so colder first half, warmer second.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Seems all abit early but Joe B is again going for a colder than average winter in his prelim thoughts -

"In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold."

I know alot of people slate this guy but he has done very well for summer and winter forecasts over the last couple of years now so you never know we could get a 3rd cold winter in a row.....

:pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Joe B ALWAYS predicts a cold winter though, although to be fair to him, he does use his thoughts and knowledge to back his claims up and i suppose he indeed got last winter accurate unlike the UKMO!

However its just like Ian Brown with his "modern E(ra)" theory, neither will back down and i suspect Ian will be forecasting a mild winter this year too.

I'm sure we will hear more about this and the thoughts and expectations of winter as we head through the Autumn period. Be interesting what people will be expecting, will expectations increase because of last winter being so cold?

For me personally, I'd like too see a true stright Northerly from the Arctic which gradually weakens after 2-3 days as we aint seen one of these for such a while now, previous ones have been messy with shortwaves or just a quick toppler. I also would not mind seeing an Easterly which brings the -15Hpa temp hitting the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Such northerlies have indeed been relatively rare in recent years, but there was one last winter- 29th January to 1st February. The night of the 29th/30th January had heavy snowstorms near the North Sea coast that delivered 4-6 inches of snow cover.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Very cold with widespread snowfall, some crisp winter sunshine in the East at first, blizzards in the west Country with areas around Bath to Exeter being particularly effected by mid winter with 6 foot snow drifts at the very least, low temps generally, lots of snow flurries and showers some heavy at times, remaining cold going into March. :pardon::p

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Unbelievable, it's the second week of July and nobody's sticking their necks out to forecast at least 3 feet of snow by Bonfire Night !!!

post-2844-041450500 1279065853_thumb.jpg

Mmmm. Snow.

I expect a very stormy winter this year. Some snow but loads and loads of wind storms. Last winter was all very well being cold but it was actually quite boring:

Day 7: Frost

Day 8: Frost with a flake of snow

Day 9: Frost with fog

Day 10: Fog with some snow (My eldest son calls that "SNOG")

Day 11: Overcast with some freezing drizzle

Day 12: Freezing drizzle with some cloud

Day 13: Snow with cloud and some drizzly fog

Day 14: Frost

Day 15: Some sun but misty with fog and then some sun but then fog

Day 16: Sunny but frosty early and late and some fog at late o'clock

Day 17: Fine and dry but forsty

Blah, blah, blah :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Doncaster South Yorkshire 4m( 13ft) ASL
  • Location: Doncaster South Yorkshire 4m( 13ft) ASL

yes!! i have been waiting for this topic to start......dare not start it myself lol :p:cold::pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Loving the new thread! drinks.gif

Hopefully a winter like last year, I will never forget Christmas (which I spent in Leeds). Lying snow when I got there (21st) and then heavy snow Christmas eve and a magical white Christmas with a lovely walk in a complete winter wonderland!

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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

Last winter was great, no doubts about that, but bl**dy hard work as well. I spent Nov' to April defrosting water troughs for ponies, chickens and dogs, humping masses of hay around the paddocks and generally trying to keep the lanes open around here. At one stage I had 40cms in my garden !!!

More of the same please.....LOL :D

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Seems all abit early but Joe B is again going for a colder than average winter in his prelim thoughts -

"In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold."

I know alot of people slate this guy but he has done very well for summer and winter forecasts over the last couple of years now so you never know we could get a 3rd cold winter in a row.....

:D

That's one prediction I get right every year, 100%...Joe B's going for cold!!! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Can't deny that since last summers NOT the BBQ summer prediction Joe's been having a fantastic run with his longer range forecasts. One of the few forecasters to call last winter correctly and to say this would be a hot European summer.

Winter 2010/2011 will be a real puzzle. Strong La Nina Vs -NAO. Somethings got to give. :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Temperatures ≤25ºC ≥10ºC.
  • Location: Crossgates, Leeds. 76m ASL

Why does there always seem to be a strengthening La Nina for Winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Why does there always seem to be a strengthening La Nina for Winter?

To keep us on our toes! :rolleyes: There was a strengthening El Nino for last Winter. Always seems to be one or the other!

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I'd like too see a true stright Northerly from the Arctic which gradually weakens after 2-3 days as we aint seen one of these for such a while now, previous ones have been messy with shortwaves or just a quick toppler. I also would not mind seeing an Easterly which brings the -15Hpa temp hitting the UK.

Likewise i'd like to see a true straight southerly from north africa which gradually weakens after 2 to 3 days which we havent seen in ages, previous ones were moderated too much from the southwest and with no proper thundery breakdown, actually here none at all, i would also like a hot southeasterly which brings 15C+ hPa air to the UK so more places outside the southeast can enjoy temps into the early 30's C.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Hopefully a winter like last year, I will never forget Christmas (which I spent in Leeds). Lying snow when I got there (21st) and then heavy snow Christmas eve and a magical white Christmas with a lovely walk in a complete winter wonderland!

Yes hopefully 6 inches of snow on Christmas day.

Christmas eve in Leeds

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post-8968-014612700 1279144313_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Yes hopefully 6 inches of snow on Christmas day.

Christmas eve in Leeds

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Thanks for the pics, certainly brings back the memories!

How I would love for that to happen again!

With a possible La Nina, negative AO and NAO then we may be needing a JCB this year and not just a shovel! whistling.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

Lovely to have a Winter thread! Will have to start a "First Signs Of Autumn" thread soon, too. I was thinking about that the other day! :)

Because I feel that we are on a cooling path (and I thought this about 4 years ago), I am plumping for another cold one and shall soon be going to Wickes to see if I can get some rock salt stuff, as it's a heck of a job to get onto my drive when the road and pavement are covered in snow, due to the angle at which I have to approach it.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Lovely to have a Winter thread! Will have to start a "First Signs Of Autumn" thread soon, too. I was thinking about that the other day! :)

Because I feel that we are on a cooling path (and I thought this about 4 years ago), I am plumping for another cold one and shall soon be going to Wickes to see if I can get some rock salt stuff, as it's a heck of a job to get onto my drive when the road and pavement are covered in snow, due to the angle at which I have to approach it.

Sounds like a plan!

Best thing about winter for me (apart from the obvious) is the fact that Netweather really comes alive! Don't get me wrong, it is great in summer but I think it has that extra buzz in the winter, especially the model thread! crazy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Thanks for the pics, certainly brings back the memories!

How I would love for that to happen again!

Me too, although I won't be getting my hopes up before December!

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Posted
  • Location: Wexford, Ireland. 80 metres asl
  • Location: Wexford, Ireland. 80 metres asl

Sounds like a plan!

Best thing about winter for me (apart from the obvious) is the fact that Netweather really comes alive! Don't get me wrong, it is great in summer but I think it has that extra buzz in the winter, especially the model thread! crazy.gif

Remeber the buzz when the first signs of northern blocking started to show at the start of December? Model thread was electric!

Who did that forecast here on netweather last autumn , what a fantastic forecast , informative and CORRECT!

Some American sites are suggesting a weak to moderate La Nina, negative NAO which would last till mid march and also a negative AO. Early days yet but none the less a sobering thought.whistling.gif

Were can I find these long term forecast for NAO and AO , NOAA only forecast for a week or two ahead.

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