Winter 2010/11

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Looking at those forecast videos for last winter, makes me yearn for the first air frost and snowfall. Seems likes so long ago now...

[summer blizzard]

Those charts also show the forecast of a cool Autumn for England. In regards to last winter, what we had was a wierd and unique teleconnection combination with an El Nino combined with a negative QBO, this combination resulted in the most negative December and February values on record. If we can keep the easterly QBO going until winter is over then we should see a more traditional but cold winter pattern this winter.

[summer blizzard]

Dont want to put a downer on this new thread but we have just recorded the warmest ever first six months of the year globaly and ice cover

in the arctic is at a record low for the end of june, surely this cant help things.

I hope we get a winter as good as last year ?

It may have had the warmest first half globally, but the UK has actually had its first below average first half to a year since 1996.

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62976-polar-ice-extent/page__st__153

If you look at post #165, Jackone has a document attached with figures of the ice extent between 2002-2010, the ice extent to date is over 440,000sqft over 2007. This has been caused by a +ve AO, which is bringing cloudier, cooler weather to the pole and is slowing down the rate of melt. Nevertheless still a bad season for the summer ice in the Arctic.

I suppose one other factor for winter will be the strength of the Polar Vortex, it was displaced a lot during last winter, and some of the time did not require the help of stratospheric warming (caused by a strong -ve AO?). Am I right in saying a +ve AO promotes a strong Polar Vortex?

Indeed we are now above 2007 levels and have been a over a week now, However as you mention there is a thread, for it in the Climate change section.

Dont want to go off topic but this graph says we are below 2007 levels

This is off topic, but that is out of date, we were below 2007 up until the 9th July, when 2007 started to fall off big time. As you can from the above chart it only goes to the start of July.

[Guest]

Re. comments about a boring winter in western Scotland, I'm guessing the area wasn't well placed for dramatic convective snowfalls.

On reflection TWS, I'm being very selfish and parochial with my view. There were two occasions on which areas ten miles north of me and then ten miles south of me got an absolute pasting from snow but when we saw very little. If I was more objective I would have to admit that last winter was incredible. With just a slight shift in the movement of snow bands we would have been in serious trouble here. If both bands had hit then we'd have had well over two feet of snow which would have persisted for several weeks. Most of the snow which fell here in the Dec-Jan cold spell came from the east coast and due to isolated local conditions the small ridge to my east tends to catch most of the snow when it falls from that direction. At one point my parents had a good 8 inches of snow on the ground while we had only 4; they live 1/2 mile away.

I'm not going to be looking for snow this winter, I want storms, lashing rain and some extreme wind. A proper storm is a distant memory in these parts, here's hoping Although if mother nature wants to serve up an extreme wind storm with snow thrown in, I'm happy with that (not expecting much am I?? )

[cheeky_monkey]

Here in Edmonton Canada it was one of the mildest winters on record in contrast to the uk..we are in the midst of a cool wet summer following on from a cold wet spring..im expecting it too much colder and snowier here this winter than last..but then again what do i know about weather in western canada..i do know it will be a long cold winter compared to the UK whatever happens

[kold weather]

I suppose one other factor for winter will be the strength of the Polar Vortex, it was displaced a lot during last winter, and some of the time did not require the help of stratospheric warming (caused by a strong -ve AO?). Am I right in saying a +ve AO promotes a strong Polar Vortex?

I think if there is going to be one upside to the broad pattern it is the PV probably won't ramp up too quickly this late Autumn/winter, I suspect it'll get going in the second half of winter and we may see a very zonal late winter period (of course if we do have a -VE ao/nao spell before hand things could be interesting as the jet ramps up again...) but a qweaker starting point of the PV will certainly not be a bad thing.

Global pattern has been near on identical to 1998 thus far.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I have an interesting question to ask:

When do people start looking for cold in the models and also when do you stop?

Personally I start looking in mid-October (especially after the 2008 October Snow) and stop looking in mid-march.

[Stormyking]

I have an interesting question to ask:

When do people start looking for cold in the models and also when do you stop?

Personally I start looking in mid-October (especially after the 2008 October Snow) and stop looking in mid-march.

I stop looking after the 6th April becuase of the April 6th 2008 snowfall which amazed me and gave even the IOW a good couple of inches I would love another repeat .

Anyways Im expecting a few more snowier spells this winter even though the January event was excellant here, that was the only real snow event that stood out here and okay had a day or 2 in february where there was some snow showers but didnt do much at all. A Thames streamer would most definatly be welcome .

[Radiating Dendrite]

Personally I would love a mix of early Feb 2009 for snowfall and early January 2010 for cold.

This would equate to around a ft of snow and a max temperature of around -2c.

Fantastic!

Edited July 19, 2010 by Radiating Dendrite

[Derp Patrol]

I have an interesting question to ask:

When do people start looking for cold in the models and also when do you stop?

Personally I start looking in mid-October (especially after the 2008 October Snow) and stop looking in mid-march.

I start looking usually around late November, but usually we don't have a chance at snow until mid December. I stop looking at around mid February when I start looking for the first 15C of the year (if it hasn't been reached already..) I like snow and cold, but I find that the darkness of winter makes it worse, so I prefer a short but cold winter. Idealy for me, we would have a 2 month cold winter, a 6 month hot summer, and 2 months in between each where it is mild- pleasantly warm!

[Terminal Moraine]

I have an interesting question to ask:

When do people start looking for cold in the models and also when do you stop?

Personally I start looking in mid-October (especially after the 2008 October Snow) and stop looking in mid-march.

I never stop looking! I'm wanting serious negative temperature anomalies at all times of year.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I never stop looking! I'm wanting serious negative temperature anomalies at all times of year.

I agree with this.

Maybe I should have said the following:

When do people start looking and stop looking for snow?

[Methuselah]

Generally, I don't look for (in the sense of desire) cold weather before the end of November. That's because I don't like cold, wet stuff. Especially sleet!

[Backtrack]

I agree with this.

Maybe I should have said the following:

When do people start looking and stop looking for snow?

Really depends on where you live doesn't it.

People like me can't expect snow until mid-late December when the true coldness of winter kicks in. People who live in the Pennines for example can start looking for snow mid October to early November. The first snow up there will usually be some time in November.

People in the London area perhaps wont get any snow until late December or early January.

To sum it up: The Scotts will get snow first.

[Terminal Moraine]

I agree with this.

Maybe I should have said the following:

When do people start looking and stop looking for snow?

Aah, in that case I normally start looking around the first week in Ocotber and give up around the middle of May.

[Thundery wintry showers]

On reflection TWS, I'm being very selfish and parochial with my view. There were two occasions on which areas ten miles north of me and then ten miles south of me got an absolute pasting from snow but when we saw very little. If I was more objective I would have to admit that last winter was incredible. With just a slight shift in the movement of snow bands we would have been in serious trouble here. If both bands had hit then we'd have had well over two feet of snow which would have persisted for several weeks. Most of the snow which fell here in the Dec-Jan cold spell came from the east coast and due to isolated local conditions the small ridge to my east tends to catch most of the snow when it falls from that direction. At one point my parents had a good 8 inches of snow on the ground while we had only 4; they live 1/2 mile away.

I'm not going to be looking for snow this winter, I want storms, lashing rain and some extreme wind. A proper storm is a distant memory in these parts, here's hoping Although if mother nature wants to serve up an extreme wind storm with snow thrown in, I'm happy with that (not expecting much am I?? )

In cold zonal setups with regular outpouring of cold Arctic & Canadian air into the Atlantic you can get both- January 1984 was a particularly extreme example when the pattern persisted for most of the month. 10th-12th January 1993 was a shorter-lived but often-remembered example. However since those setups have always been marginal they are more subsceptible to having the higher mean global temperatures replace snow with sleet or rain.

When do people start looking and stop looking for snow?

I experience more of a seasonal "emphasis shift"- I have a strong interest in snow between November and March, April through June sees a slow decline in that interest (but never reaching zero) and then it increases again during September and October. So I don't think, if expressed in absolute terms, I ever really stop.

Edited July 19, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[stewfox]

I am no forecaster but I would say at this early stage this Winter will be less severe in duration than 2009/10 but judging by these CFS charts the cold will return for most during the early winter at least. There is what looks like a decent Summer fingers crossed though before we approach Winters bleakness.

Long range forcasting is like reading the Sun Horoscopes , ie fun and we all do it but they have no bearing on reality.

One thing is certain if we have a real mild winter with wet westerilies and +10c in the mid of Jan the prozac better be in plentiful supply

I fear peoples 'expectations' maybe too high , particulary for those who had a lot of snow 2009/10 winter

[Cheese Rice]

I usually start looking for snow in November but start looking for signs of winter/autumn in Sep/October.

This winter I hope for a repeat performance of Dec 3rd 2008, woken up by several texts at 6am of the snow and whether transport was canceled etc, to look out the window to see 6inches of snow, despite forecasts of the snow turning to rain it carried on till 10am and stayed on the ground for 2 weeks. What made Dec 3rd even better was we already had 2cm on the ground which fell 2 days before from heavy snow showers, so we had the base which helped.

Edited July 19, 2010 by 10123

[Radiating Dendrite]

I usually start looking for snow in November but start looking for signs of winter/autumn in Sep/October.

This winter I hope for a repeat performance of Dec 3rd 2008, woken up by several texts at 6am of the snow and whether transport was canceled etc, to look at the window to see 6inches of snow, despite forecasts of the snow turning to rain it carried on till 10am and stayed on the ground for 2 weeks. What made Dec 3rd even better was we already had 2cm on the ground which fell 2 days before from heavy snow showers, so we had the base which helped.

Just goes to show that the last few Decembers have been decent for cold and snow, even though they usually contain some mild weather within them.

[Cheese Rice]

Just goes to show that the last few Decembers have been decent for cold and snow, even though they usually contain some mild weather within them.

Yeah but this was part of the last two cold winters which can't (yet) be used as references as usually in the last twenty years Decembers have been mild with limited snow, although this is the same through the whole of winter.

...

Here's some pics of Dec 3rd, the first two are of youtube.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember that event quite well although I think it hit on the 4th December rather than the 3rd. An Atlantic system came in, and was widely forecast to give rain preceded by a bit of front edge snow, due to the models being too progressive and positioning low pressure too far north and east- a recurring feature of the first halves of both December 2008 and February 2009. Instead, much of Scotland and north-east England had several hours of heavy snow. I think it largely melted near sea level during the following couple of days (e.g. at Cleadon in Tyne and Wear most of the snow melted the following day) but it never got particularly mild so many upland areas such as 10123's location held onto the snow cover.

As has been mentioned in the Philip Eden 1981-2010 averages thread, December is the only month that has strongly bucked the recent warming trend, and I think the main reason is that a large proportion of our coldest synoptics in recent winters have occurred during the Decembers, while with the exception of last winter, very few of them occurred during the Januarys. 1995/96, 1996/97, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2005/06 all fell strongly into this category- plus the Decembers of 2004, 2006 and 2007 were all prevented from being excessively warm due to inversions under high pressure.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yeah but this was part of the last two cold winters which can't (yet) be used as references as usually in the last twenty years Decembers have been mild with limited snow, although this is the same through the whole of winter.

...

Here's some pics of Dec 3rd, the first two are of youtube.

I thought that December had got colder as a month compared to 30 years ago?

This is discussed in the 1981-2010-philip-eden-cet-averages topic:

For example:

Thundery wintry showers, on 13 July 2010 - 16:39, said:

Philip Eden has created a set of provisional 1981-2010 averages for his alternative continuation of the CET (July-December values subject to revision as 2010 is not yet finished):

http://www.climate-u...provisional.htm

Some of his 1971-2000 average values differ from the Hadley versions by one or two tenths of a degree, which was somewhat unexpected- clearly those occasional 0.3-0.4C differences do not iron out fully over a 30-year period. The annual average is much the same though.

But the most significant part is that 1981-2010 represents a similar rise relative to 1971-2000 as 1971-2000 did to 1961-90. The only month that has failed to warm is December, which is back down to 4.8C which is close to the average for the twentieth century. June has finally responded to the warming trend after seeing no warming trend at all between 1659 and 2000.

Central England appears to be warming at a rate of 0.25C per decade, as compared with an average global warming of about 0.15C/decade and an average Northern Hemisphere of about 0.2C/decade.

[snowhope]

Looking at trends for my area.

Winters seem to have been snowier and colder over the latter years of this first decade of the 21C.

I just hope that this didnt peak with last year and that we can expect something similar this winter.(if not better)

[Cheese Rice]

Judging by those figures it is rather disappointing to see that despite temperature averages not rising in December this isn't equating to snow, as in the last twenty years there has been a distinct lack of.

I remember that event quite well although I think it hit on the 4th December rather than the 3rd. An Atlantic system came in, and was widely forecast to give rain preceded by a bit of front edge snow, due to the models being too progressive and positioning low pressure too far north and east- a recurring feature of the first halves of both December 2008 and February 2009. Instead, much of Scotland and north-east England had several hours of heavy snow. I think it largely melted near sea level during the following couple of days (e.g. at Cleadon in Tyne and Wear most of the snow melted the following day) but it never got particularly mild so many upland areas such as 10123's location held onto the snow cover.

I looked through the weather station records online for Osmondthorpe in Leeds and it is the 4th. Temperatures were very marginal for that event, 50m asl not dropping below freezing despite 5-7cm of snow, what was more surprising was a distinct line at 40m where the snow had melted by lunch-time, and literally above 40m 5cm+ of snow of which lasted for a week and two weeks for ground above 130m.

Edited July 19, 2010 by 10123