Winter 2010/11

[TEITS]

has anyone seen weather outlook they are saying that there could be snow in austria in mid august and snow in scotland near mid september i said winter would start early anyway.

I don't mean to be disrespectful to the weather outlook but I don't rate their predictions.

During recent years the forecasts to take notice of are J.laminate floori, Net weather forecasts, Glacier point, Chionomanic. Once we enter winter its a good idea to follow the model discussion thread with excellent posts from the likes of Steve M, Nick F, Nick Sussex, John H, GP.

So if any new members want an idea whats happening during the winter months then I suggest you follow the above. Like I say you have to wait until the November before we have a reasonable idea. I will say though that J.laminate floori impressively predicted last years cold winter back in July 2009!

P.S Don't take any notice of me during the winter months because all I do is harp on about E,lys.

Edited July 29, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I don't mean to be disrespectful to the weather outlook but I don't rate their predictions.

During recent years the forecasts to take notice of are J.laminate floori, Net weather forecasts, Glacier point, Chionomanic. Once we enter winter its a good idea to follow the model discussion thread with excellent posts from the likes of Steve M, Nick F, Nick Sussex, John H, GP.

So if any new members want an idea whats happening during the winter months then I suggest you follow the above. Like I say you have to wait until the November before we have a reasonable idea. I will say though that J.laminate floori impressively predicted last years cold winter back in July 2009!

TEITS, you're far too modest by not listing yourself in that illustrious list of forecasters. You've spotted E'lys at some fair distance in the past, days before anyone else !!

[Backtrack]

Well the Chinese models suggest a milder than average autumn across the whole of the UK, so an Atlantic dominant autumn looks probable, perhaps one could say the current pattern we are in could persist till the autumn, which to me doesn't seem that unlikely.

Then a dramatic shift Globally to below average temperatures, however for the UK Scotland looks slightly above average which would suggest an Atlantic dominant pattern with the South East slightly below and most of England average. So a battle ground scenario looks likely with areas with average temperatures looking to be at the center of the battle ground, with the south east experiencing a more continental dry winter.

The US models suggest a below average Autumn, so more in-line with the Met models.

The Chinese model looks similar to the US, northern parts of the British Isles experiencing more Atlantic dominated weather and slightly above average temperatures, again England and Wales experiencing average to below temperatures.

My Forecast

Autumn-

After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas.

Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter-

Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East.

Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and Below average South of Scotland, significantly so in the South and East.

Just read this forecast. I don't understand. Are you saying that temperatures will be above average in Scotland, and below average for England and Wales in Winter?

[Cheese Rice]

Just read this forecast. I don't understand. Are you saying that temperatures will be above average in Scotland, and below average for England and Wales in Winter?

Yeah

Edited July 29, 2010 by 10123

[Backtrack]

Yeah

That would be very unusual. Temperatures are normally much colder than most of England up there in Scotty land.

[Wynn D Woo]

That would be very unusual. Temperatures are normally much colder than most of England up there in Scotty land.

Not that unusual at all really....with higher pressure to the south and east pulling colder, drier, continental air into England and Wales, whilst lower pressure north/west drags the milder, wetter airmass north over Ireland and Scotland.

Edited July 29, 2010 by windswept

[Optimus Prime]

He's comparing it to the average. The 1962/1963 winter was much colder for England and Wales than it was for Scotland, and that was in real terms not just the anomaly!

[Backtrack]

Thanks windswept and Optimus.

Last question (I'm going to sound like a tard here)

What's an anomaly?

[Nick L]

I think that believing any forecast in Autumn for Winter is a bit risky, let alone at the end of July!

[Iceni]

Well the Chinese models suggest a milder than average autumn across the whole of the UK, so an Atlantic dominant autumn looks probable, perhaps one could say the current pattern we are in could persist till the autumn, which to me doesn't seem that unlikely.

Then a dramatic shift Globally to below average temperatures, however for the UK Scotland looks slightly above average which would suggest an Atlantic dominant pattern with the South East slightly below and most of England average. So a battle ground scenario looks likely with areas with average temperatures looking to be at the center of the battle ground, with the south east experiencing a more continental dry winter.

The US models suggest a below average Autumn, so more in-line with the Met models.

The Chinese model looks similar to the US, northern parts of the British Isles experiencing more Atlantic dominated weather and slightly above average temperatures, again England and Wales experiencing average to below temperatures.

My Forecast

Autumn-

After an Atlantic driven second half to Sumer the theme continues with the Atlantic in full control of the UK, the first half of Autumn looks unsettled and wet, again Southern areas experiencing drier and brighter weather, during this period temperatures across Northern areas average-below and above average in the south. To-wards the second half of the month more emphasis on high pressure, dragging in cool cloudy easterlies bringing below average temperatures for eastern areas and average temperatures for Western areas.

Overall- Temperatures slightly below average in Northern areas and above average in the south.

Winter-

Similar to Winter 08/09, spells of colder weather lasting 1-2 weeks with milder interludes, Scotland experiencing shorter cold spells and a higher emphasis on Atlantic driven Milder weather. Southern areas heavily influenced by high pressure bringing cold dry weather with Wales/N.England in the middle of the Atlantic driven north and cold south bringing battle ground scenarios, the cold never leaving the South and East.

Overall- Temperatures slightly above average in the North and Below average South of Scotland, significantly so in the South and East.

You obviously have a hotline to my guts

Just the same as my forecast in the other winter 2010/11 thread which Kold closed — just after my post!

I reckon a very wet windy autumn breaking the habit of the last couple of years, then a dry/cold December.

January — first half dry and cold then snowy for the last week possibly into first 10 days February — then the breakdown with Atlantic back in charge until April.

All based on nothing whatsoever more than gut feeling. :lol:

Edited July 29, 2010 by Iceni

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thanks windswept and Optimus.

Last question (I'm going to sound like a tard here)

What's an anomaly?

An anomaly is something that is unusual, different to the average that you would expect to see.

For instance if you had hourly temps for London on a June day of the following:

2pm - 21c

3pm - 20c

4pm - 11c

5pm - 19c

6pm - 19c

Then the 4pm result would be an anomaly as it is very different to the other figures and not something that you would have expected to see.

I hope that this makes sense

[Cheese Rice]

You obviously have a hotline to my guts

Just the same as my forecast in the other winter 2010/11 thread which Kold closed — just after my post!

All based on nothing whatsoever more than gut feeling.

Your forecast is way too specific, anyway I'm forecasting a slightly warmer than average winter for Scotland/N.Ireland and the far NW of England so not just below average everywhere.

My forecast is based on-

-Current Summer pattern (July in Particular)

-Arctic sea ice temperatures and thickness

-Positon of the Jet-Stream over last few months

-Entering La Nina phase

-Low Sunspot activity

-Global models

Don't really see the point in taking the last two winters in-to account as they could quite easily be an anomaly.

Edited July 29, 2010 by 10123

[Iceni]

Your forecast is way too specific, anyway I'm forecasting a slightly warmer than average winter for Scotland/N.Ireland and the far NW of England so not just below average everywhere.

My forecast is based on-

-Current Summer pattern (July in Particular)

-Arctic sea ice temperatures and thickness

-Positon of the Jet-Stream over last few months

-Entering La Nina phase

-Low Sunspot activity

-Global models

Don't really see the point in taking the last two winters in-to account as they could quite easily be an anomaly.

Yes my forecast was for my location which is the SE — never said it was for the UK — as that is where my guts are currently located.

And I said my forecast was based on nothing more than gut feeling — which I'm learning to trust, as last year's reading of the MetO long-range winter forecast just didn't seem 'right' at the time — despite the el Nino and the rest.

If we get another cold winter as GP says may be possible, would the last two still be an anomaly?

[Weather-history]

.

would the last two still be an anomaly?

I don't think you can put the last two winters under one heading. Just for the CET alone, last winter was 1.1C colder than its predecessor, so to call winter 2008-09, an anomaly and to group it with the subsequent winter which was even colder by a margin is strange.

Edited July 29, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Cheese Rice]

If we get another cold winter as GP says may be possible, would the last two still be an anomaly?

For me it will be, as I said before it was statistically near impossible to achieve 3 wet summers in the row but as we all saw the last three summers were wetter than average, so who's to say the same logic can't be applied to our winters.

[arcticadventurer]

December January and February to be cold overall with more snow this winter than last. I am basing this on a strong negative NAO.along with a moderate/strong La Nina Incidentely some parts of Siberia reached 19 degrees while we froze last January

[jonathon]

i have just been specking to the met office and they said we will have an early auturm and winter

[jethro]

i have just been specking to the met office and they said we will have an early auturm and winter

Can't see anything on their site, where did you find that info?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Can't see anything on their site, where did you find that info?

I think we can assume it is spurious given that pretty much every post he makes is about summer ending, autumn arriving, snow around 12th of September.

[Cheese Rice]

I think we can assume it is spurious given that pretty much every post he makes is about summer ending, autumn arriving, snow around 12th of September.

I'm not sure if it's the same Jonathon but last September Jonathon regularly posted of-topic in the model output discussion stating on several occasions winter would start in September etc.

[ZONE 51]

if the atlantic gets busy from X-TS/H then these lows would most likely affect the uk from september bring mild wet even very wet even in the south from deep lows and verywindy conditions, a storm may end up in the bay of biscay and head northeast, then the atlantic doors close during late auturmn with a bitterly cold winter setting in. i see a harsh winter and a stormy one for all the uk.

[jethro]

A mild and wet September? Yes please, that will be perfect - been waiting since April to lay a vast amount of turf, sooooo relieved I didn't do it back then, it's been incredibly dry down here.

[SNOW GO]

if the atlantic gets busy from X-TS/H then these lows would most likely affect the uk from september bring mild wet even very wet even in the south from deep lows and verywindy conditions, a storm may end up in the bay of biscay and head northeast, then the atlantic doors close during late auturmn with a bitterly cold winter setting in. i see a harsh winter and a stormy one for all the uk.

That would be for me the perfect Autumn into Winter, the seasons as they should be!!

Edited July 30, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Iceni]

That would be for me the perfect Autumn into Winter, the seasons as they should be!!

Yup - me too!

I get a bit twitchy if there hasn't been a frost by the end of October — and bonfire night without the accompanying chill, so you can see your breath in the firelight, is horrible.

[Optimus Prime]

What's an anomaly?

I always see an anomaly as the temperatures departure from average. So anything from 0.1c - 6.0c either side of average would an anomaly.