Winter 2010/11

[CJWRC]

Frosty, come on mate. I already pulled you for your temperature readings, which seem to be 10c out.

But now 4 feet of level snow in the hills.

4 feet is something that doesn't occur often even in Finland, Sweden, France, Scotland. 4 feet is a stupid estimate. Maybe 1.5 feet. Not 4 mate.

Well I witnessed 10-15 foot drifts over 500m last winter in south east Ireland why is four feet so hard to beleive? That was on the 29th december when a front satlled over the country for 3 days , rain at ground level , caused alot of flooding! Who knows how much was up there by the 15th of Jan.

I saw 4 foot of lying snow over 400m on the 1st April , 7 foot drifts. I guess you havn't been up the mountains during snow events , it's a world away from ground level , look at some pictures on google!

Heres a pic from February 2009 , just shows how different it can be too ground level , this gave 6cm at ground level:

Edited August 13, 2010 by CJWRC

[Tucco]

Actual level snow is very hard to measure wind wind blown snow is involved. Above 500m any estimate of level snow is virtually impossible.

4 foot deep level snow at a habitable level is very rare indeed. 1940, 1941,1947 and 1963 recorded 4 ft plus totals.

4ft snow with a strong wind images of drifts to the top of houses would be expected as in 1947 etc. None such images occurred last winter to my knowledge.

Edited August 13, 2010 by Tucco

[cooling climate]

It seem silly to continue to complain about people’s posts without any input.

Why not post what we should want to see develop in the next few months regarding the positioning of the Jet stream, Greenland Highs etc etc for a sustained cold spell.

Did Autumn 1962 give any signs what was to come or did it all fall into place within a week or two ? etc

Tell us blebs what we should be looking for

It is extremely difficult as you are probably aware of making long range accurate forcasts and with the

start of the 2010-11 winter season still three and a half months away it is a very tough call to make.

Last November their were posts writing off the coming winter because of the mild weather but with a

moderate El Nino in place (more southerly tracking lows across the atlantic +strong sub tropical jet )

and then warming across the Arctic at the 30mb stratospheric level (shown below) there were good

indications to feel encouraged although nothing was guaranteed.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

With regards to this winter what we don't want to see is a very large SE ridge (heat ridge) build eastwards

from the east coast of America ( which is fairly typical in La Nina's) with low pressure systems riding over

the top of them keeping the UK in mild wet west to SW winds.

Having said that if we are to see further blocking at higher latitudes again this winter (ozone levels in the

stratosphere, stratosphere temperatures in the tropics and over Arctic +plus Earth bound pulses of

higher solar activity will give a guide to this) this could form a strong block in the Atlantic and to our north/

northeast to allow very cold continental air to move westwards over the UK.

Changes in sea surface temperatures over the coming Autumn will also come into play then you have the

build of Siberian snow cover during the Autumn which again plays a role in which mode the AO and to an

extent the NAO index is likely to see. If the AO index this winter is more + than last year (which I think it will be

although I am fairly confident at this stage that we will see further northerly blocking this winter) it is not such

a bad thing it all depends where the two main vortices,s set up home for the winter.

There is probably plenty of in-dices I have missed out like strength of Nina this coming winter, how + will the QBO

go etc, etc but I hope this gives you an idea as to how many unanswered questions there are at this stage.

My punt at this stage in time is that we will see mild interludes at times but we are also likely to see some

very cold spells of weather more so from a east northeasterly direction which could well be quite severe indeed

owing to a bitterly cold (relatively speaking) Arctic winter to come.

[Optimus Prime]

Biggest snowstorm at a low level location occurred on February 1963 across the south west. Unusual because the only other major snowfall was in December 1962.

[johnholmes]

It seems silly for people to complain about people’s posts without any input.

Why not post what we should want to see develop in the next few months regarding the positioning of the Jet stream, Greenland Highs etc etc for a sustained cold spell.

Did Autumn 1962 give any signs what was to come or did it all fall into place within a week or two ? etc

Tell us blebs what we should be looking for

to briefly answer your complaint about me commenting regarding off topic.

Those who post positive additions to this or any other thread fine, but look at the title, winter 2010/11 it says. Now look at some of the posts, are they about what MIGHT happen winter 2010/11=NO; hence my comment about off topic posts.

As to my idea of winter 2010-2011 I really have no idea as yet. My ability doesn't extend much beyond 2-3 maybe 4 weeks ahead as you will know from my lrf inputs. I'm happy to follow the more constructive posts from the likes of GP, ch etc for further than that.

I hope Stew you read this reply as being a sensible answer to your comment.

[Optimus Prime]

Did Autumn 1962 give any signs what was to come or did it all fall into place within a week or two ? etc

Yeah November saw a few cold northerly and easterly spells much like November 2005 and was around a 1c below normal. Autumn 1962 was pretty cold overall and so was the summer and the spring previous.

[stewfox]

.

I hope Stew you read this reply as being a sensible answer to your comment.

Thanks John and thanks CC for your excellent summary of what we would like to see for 2010/11 (if you’re a cold lover of course).

[dragan]

Cairngorms can get that but that's a very high mountain range. The snow doesn't thaw throughout winter. I remember Frosty reporting that in a single night.

He lives in Ireland. Not Himalayas.

backtrack. you have being very quick to pull me up for rows. now cairngorms are not very mountain range, they are not even high mountain range. infect some countries may call them heels. also 4 feet of snow, hinga fringa boing boing boing!! maybe with drifts but thes not count. maybe 1.5 feet. i like you to be nice.

[frostyjoe]

Where I live, I'd say Winter starts when the mercury doesn't hit 15c in a day. Hasn't happened yet, and forecasts show that it might not happen for a while yet. Also, late Autumn expected, could this also delay this years' winter?

Erm we've been having that here for 2 weeks now and no its not winter temps that quite mild for winter!

[frostyjoe]

Absolutley not. I don't think it's possible for winter to be delayed. One Northerly/Easterly outbreak after mid-november will be cold.

That's a ploughed road!!!! The snow ploughs have move ALL OF THE SNOW on the road, to the side. Obviously it's going to look piled up...

You said 4 feet now you are saying 3 feet! Make up your mind.

Edit: If you go onto the next picture, you can see clearly the snow level behind the piled up snow. It's around 1.5ft which was my original estimate!!!

http://www.flickr.co...30790/lightbox/

Stop treating me and others like we are dumb! I do know that and if you look to the side its far more than that as you can see its near up the fences, and that area is like 600foot the main road is 950 foot and the road i was on was 1200 foot, so don't tell me whats their and i don't live in bloody ireland!

[Cheese Rice]

Can't we just rename the title of the thread?

As it is pretty clear if we stuck to the actual discussion of the up-coming winter we would probably have 2-3 pages vs the current 29. Last year the discussion was Autumn and winter which I remember starting in mid July, there wasn't any issue then of off-topic posts as it was a mixture of past/preset and future. Last years discussion was very popular (Over 100 pages), so we should keep the thread and just re-name it.

[Deep Snow please]

Has anybody walked out in the rain today and thought that if it was about fifteen degrees colder it would be snow.

Also what is the difference between a low pressure system that brings snow ad one that doesn't. Is it in the type of air?

[Cheese Rice]

Has anybody walked out in the rain today and thought that if it was about fifteen degrees colder it would be snow.

Also what is the difference between a low pressure system that brings snow ad one that doesn't. Is it in the type of air?

Yes it does remind you of an easterly blast with showers coming in of the north sea, the meto warnings are for 40mm of rain = 40cm of snow, one can only wish...

About the low pressure, as far as I'm aware you don't see low-pressures with embedded cold, unless it's a polar low. So usually it's either the low pressure bumping into cold air, or low pressure dragging in cold air. There is always a mild sector associated with low pressure, so to get snow is fairly hard, alot of factors are involved and are more often than not, not conclusive for snow.

Edited August 13, 2010 by 10123