Winter 2010/11

[summer blizzard]

Couple of things to keep an eye on w/r/t sea surface temperature anomalies over the next month or so which will have a bearing on the winter pattern.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

That large warm anomaly centred over the northern Pacific is very likely to persist and even strengthen over the next few weeks (the anticipated autumn pressure pattern will reinforce this). This means that we may well go into winter with an extremely negative or cold PDO signal.

Also, in the Atlantic, some cooling is now showing up over the Canaries towards Iberia, an indication that the + Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is waning and beginning to shift towards a neutral phase. 1955 / 1956 provides a lot of clues right now. What does this mean ? Take a look at the CFS plots for pressure anomalies for the winter for what this might translate to:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Certainly the anonomoly in the Pacific sticks out like a saw thumb, and may encourage some warm air advection into the Arctic, though it certainly looks like a classic settup for the western USA, the +QBO signal probably pushing the core of the cold in to the central states.

The cool anomoly moving off Iberia is spreading west, i believe this to be upwelling caused by the developing +QBO, do you think this well encourage a more southerly tracking Jet Stream this winter?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Go on GP give us an early punt at the DEC, JAN and FEB CET returns, in terms of the trend, I think being specific would be a bit too much of an ask for anyone this far out :lol:

Anyway, thanks for your continued knowledgeable input SB, GP et al, makes for enjoyable reading trying to fathom what the forthcoming winter may bring!

Edited August 9, 2010 by CreweCold

[jethro]

1955/56 eh? A snippet taken from this site: http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

1956 (February):

1. In 1956 February was outstandingly COLD, especially in England and Wales, with the mean TEMPERATURE for the month just below freezing (CET -0.2degC) and about 4C below the normal (4th coldest February of the 20th century & 7th coldest in the entire series). The sea froze along the south coast and cakes of ice piled on the beach in places 30cm high. 165 hours of continuous FROST occurred at many places inland from 18th to 25th February, 1956. On the 3rd, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES fell to below (minus) 15 degC at several places in the south and south-west of England.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Also from here: http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

1955-56 Feb -0.2 Snowy DJF Dec., frequent blizzards, Scotland. 8th Dec., north east England and Border. 7th Jan., onwards, Scotland. Feb., especially 18-27th, east coasts and southern Britain

[Nick L]

1955/56 eh? A snippet taken from this site: http://www.booty.org...te/wxevents.htm

1956 (February):

1. In 1956 February was outstandingly COLD, especially in England and Wales, with the mean TEMPERATURE for the month just below freezing (CET -0.2degC) and about 4C below the normal (4th coldest February of the 20th century & 7th coldest in the entire series). The sea froze along the south coast and cakes of ice piled on the beach in places 30cm high. 165 hours of continuous FROST occurred at many places inland from 18th to 25th February, 1956. On the 3rd, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES fell to below (minus) 15 degC at several places in the south and south-west of England.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Also from here: http://www.napier.ec...r/bonacina.html

1955-56 Feb -0.2 Snowy DJF Dec., frequent blizzards, Scotland. 8th Dec., north east England and Border. 7th Jan., onwards, Scotland. Feb., especially 18-27th, east coasts and southern Britain

That'll do nicely :lol:

Thanks for that 2nd link by the way, been looking for that for a while. Shame it hasn't been updated for a while though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

So having read all of that it seems to point to a drier than average winter overall, with high pressure dominating, generally over/to the north / west of the UK, potentially leading to another winter dominated by a negative AO with some persistent cold possible?

[LomondSnowstorm]

hey all,

first post here - love the winter weather discussions here!

im in central scotland, and last years winter weather was the best i can remember for a long time. 09's weather was good, but strangely not for scotland - we usually get the brunt of it. weather just now confuses me, very warm and humid, but wet and windy at the same time - most unpleasant!

just thought i too would add my vote for another wild year like last year, the more thick snow and ice the better!

Welcome gsteruk!

Good to see another east-central Scotland member on the forum! Remember to pop into the Scotland snow thread if/when the winter cold sets in. It's always good for a bit of banter and more localised updates on the latest snow/ 'no events. My vote also goes to a winter with plenty of snow and cold like last year, except maybe this time not falling on holidays so I can get more than one proper snowday!

[gsteruk]

hey thanks,

ill defo keep my eyes open for the scotland snow thread - if one appears! weathers so up and down here just now, hard to know what to expect. sunny one minute, raining the next - and all the while almost unbearably oppressive - argh! i see many predicitions for winter weather, specifically does anyone have any thoughts on mid december weather?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some charts from February 1956 for those who are interested:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560211.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560214.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560220.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560223.gif

It must have been a pretty exciting month for convective snowfalls near the east coast of England.

[Gavin P]

I always think February 1956 and February 1986 were probaby very similar in a lot of places.

[johnholmes]

Some charts from February 1956 for those who are interested:

http://www.wetterzen...00119560201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119560211.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119560214.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119560220.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119560223.gif

It must have been a pretty exciting month for convective snowfalls near the east coast of England.

very good for the slopes of the Peak and Pennines as well, certainly where I lived in the days of my teens. My weather diary would probably sound like heaven to some snow addicts of much younger years!

Its off topic discussing 1956 so I'll look out my dairy and post it into my blog area later on.

the link to my blog with weather diary details is here

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/146-johnholmes-blog/

Edited August 10, 2010 by johnholmes

[Don]

I always think February 1956 and February 1986 were probaby very similar in a lot of places.

It would be great to have another December 2009 and January 2010 followed by a February 1986 or 1956, that WOULD make a great Winter for cold/snow lovers!

[johnholmes]

better still for cold and snow lovers over a wide area=December 1981 to start the winter?

[AderynCoch]

better still for cold and snow lovers over a wide area=December 1981 to start the winter?

Now that would be awesome. I wouldn't care if January and February ended up as duds if such a month were to entail!

Unfortunately, such severe Decembers are so rare that getting excited about them almost inevitably leads to disappointment - but another one has to strike sometime...

[Optimus Prime]

We've done well for Decembers in the years from 1996 onwards for cold. 3 have been more than 2.0c below normal. 2 have been more than 1.0c below average and a total of 8 have been below average. December 1981 was an incredible achievement for being so cold ( 3.5c below normal for the South West, widely 5.0c below normal but as much as 5c- 6c in the north and east of England) that's something that happens usually once every 150 years or so. I doubt it'll happen for a few more hundred years to come if at all.

[jethro]

better still for cold and snow lovers over a wide area=December 1981 to start the winter?

Now that would be heaven, still my favourite winter by far.

[AderynCoch]

We've done well for Decembers in the years from 1996 onwards for cold. 3 have been more than 2.0c below normal. 2 have been more than 1.0c below average and a total of 8 have been below average. December 1981 was an incredible achievement for being so cold ( 3.5c below normal for the South West, widely 5.0c below normal but as much as 5c- 6c in the north and east of England) that's something that happens usually once every 150 years or so. I doubt it'll happen for a few more hundred years to come if at all.

I think a few hundred years is pushing it, regardless of the warming potential of our climate: get the synoptics to play ball and the rest usually falls into place.

December 1981 was the coldest since 1890 (91 years), which was dry and blocked. December 1878 was certainly both colder and snowier (103 years prior). Being "only" the joint 7th coldest December out of 351 one would expect a December as cold as 1981 to turn up only every 50 years, though this obviously doesn't take into account climate change and whatnot. Even so, it's worth pointing out that there was an even longer period without a sub-1C December during the Little Ice Age:

Number of Decembers with a CET below 1C:

1673-1683 (11 years) - 4 (1 every 2.75 years)

1684-1783 (100 years) - 0 (1 every ∞ years)

1784-1796 (13 years) - 3 (1 every 4.3 years)

1797-1869 (73 years) - 2 (1 every 36.5 years)

1870-1890 (21 years) - 5 (1 every 4.2 years)

1891-2009 (119 years) - 1 (1 every 119 years [duh!])

A bit like buses it would seem! Even the two instances between 1797 and 1869 occurred in the space of three years (1844 & 1846)

I'm waffling on a bit here, but basically don't lose hope (just don't get too excited either!).

[summer blizzard]

better still for cold and snow lovers over a wide area=December 1981 to start the winter?

Suprisingly, when you take the AO, MEI and QBO into account 1981 is an anonologue for the June-July period this year.

[TEITS]

better still for cold and snow lovers over a wide area=December 1981 to start the winter?

What a month that was although even for me the extreme cold was too much. This was a time when your hair and eyebrows would freeze white during the spells of severe freezing fog. Also I had to sleep with my coat on as we didn't have central heating back then and ice used to form on the inside of the windows.

[Weather-history]

1870-1890 (21 years) - 5 (1 every 4.2 years)

What is remarkable is that 4 happened within 10 years

1870, 1874, 1878 and 1879

The interesting thing is that I have read reports from those Decembers and they talk about those cold spells as like winters of old as though they haven't happened for many years.

Edited August 10, 2010 by Mr_Data

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

December 2009 wasn't too bad

[dragan]

holamba polamba lets get deeshing about thes coming winters not for lest winter. you sound likes supporters of croatia zagreb worry bout what coming so talk about past to much! upcoming winter.....thinking could it be not be cold mild, for what reason? has anyone human prdicted succesful forecast this far out, i want to know?

[Nick L]

December 2009 wasn't too bad

Absolutely. Even though it was eclipsed by January it was still a cold and fairly snowy month.

[gsteruk]

dragan - from what ive been able to tell about weather predicitions, lookin at past trends helps to get a handle on current and future trends - especially for non experts like me (and i gather you). do me a personal favour though, please find a better translator website or tool, because your entries are very hard to read and come across as agressive and insulting at times. im sure im not the only one who doesnt want to feel insulted when viewing a weather website. appreciate it

Edited August 10, 2010 by gsteruk

[Backtrack]

December 2009 wasn't good here. We just got hail.

[johnholmes]

What a month that was although even for me the extreme cold was too much. This was a time when your hair and eyebrows would freeze white during the spells of severe freezing fog. Also I had to sleep with my coat on as we didn't have central heating back then and ice used to form on the inside of the windows.

yep, I could tell some wintry stories about the Manchester area in that spell-truly unusual wintry December to me.