Winter 2010/11

[kold weather]

Can't deny that since last summers NOT the BBQ summer prediction Joe's been having a fantastic run with his longer range forecasts. One of the few forecasters to call last winter correctly and to say this would be a hot European summer.

Winter 2010/2011 will be a real puzzle. Strong La Nina Vs -NAO. Somethings got to give.

Its a tough call not helped either by the fact the QBO is flipping. If I had to make a call I'd say there is a chance of a fairly cold late Autumn and early winter followed probably by the La Nina pattern flexing its muscles and bringing in a more zonal set-up...of course where the jet sits will be vital if we do go more zonal towards the backend of the winter and could quite easily see the jet being far enough south to keep cool conditions like we saw with Feb 10...though I think we will have to get used to quick toppler northerly airflows this winter...

Still too early though for even small confidence.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Remeber the buzz when the first signs of northern blocking started to show at the start of December? Model thread was electric!

Who did that forecast here on netweather last autumn , what a fantastic forecast , informative and CORRECT!

Were can I find these long term forecast for NAO and AO , NOAA only forecast for a week or two ahead.

I do indeed remember that!

First started showing around the 4th December if I remember, at one stage we had -20c 850s hitting the East Coast (although that was deep FI). What a roller-coaster and it actually came true, even though it was different to what was originally shown.

I also remember the posts saying that it would breakdown on the 22nd (the models were showing this) but it did not and stayed for xmas!

Getting goosebumps thinking about it!

[DeepSnow]

I would love one like last winter, we had 13 days with snowfall in winter 2009/10 which was the most in a long time! also had one day with 6/7inches of snow, which was the most i had seen in years also, since november 2005 i think! I would love to get a foot of snow for once, as its been about 12 years or so since i last saw that much snow, and that was when i lived in norwich! Another winter like the last would be very welcome to me!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

What's happened to Corinthian's Arctic Ice thread ?? Moved or not being compiled this year ??

[kold weather]

I also remember the posts saying that it would breakdown on the 22nd (the models were showing this) but it did not and stayed for xmas!

Getting goosebumps thinking about it!

I remember being one of the first people to claim the period between the 1st-10th of Jan could be severe indeed temperature wise, that period was probably the first exceptionally cold period we had since at least late 95 and possibly back to Feb 91 this country had had...

I'd just say don't expect anything even in the same range as last winter, the heat left in the tropics will migrate northwards by winter so temperatures will probably be higher then the synoptics suggest this winter but that being said I'm rather interested in some of the things that are setting themselves up and I think odds are we will get a decent spell of winter in the first half of the winter followed by it perhaps falling apart towards the back end but we shall see...

[Gavin P]

Kold, I would say a lot of things right now, PDO, AMO, etc... have a 40's and 50's feel about them. The strong La Nina of 54/55 and 55/56 could be worth looking at?

[Stormyking]

I am actually starting to look forward to winter already, i never normally start to get excitied until end of september but condsidering January last winter gave the most snow ive ever seen has got me alot more interested in next winter and am wondering what suprises it will bring

[summer blizzard]

I remember being one of the first people to claim the period between the 1st-10th of Jan could be severe indeed temperature wise, that period was probably the first exceptionally cold period we had since at least late 95 and possibly back to Feb 91 this country had had...

I'd just say don't expect anything even in the same range as last winter, the heat left in the tropics will migrate northwards by winter so temperatures will probably be higher then the synoptics suggest this winter but that being said I'm rather interested in some of the things that are setting themselves up and I think odds are we will get a decent spell of winter in the first half of the winter followed by it perhaps falling apart towards the back end but we shall see...

Agreed, i personally expect quite a cold and dry November and December, however if La Nina even gets moderate, it will just enhance cold strastospheric temperatures caused by the developing westerly QBO in late winter and we could see te Polar Vortex go into overdrive, which would not bode well, though if La Nina stays weak then we have a good chance of at least trying to match winter 2009, though probably not 2010. At any rate, i expect a cold November and also a cold March.

[Snowstorm1]

After Last Years Successfull Winter Forcast I Have Decided To Confirm I Will Now Be Doing Another 1 This Year

This Winter 2010/2011 is going to be .........

My Forcast Will Be Issued On The 1st October

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

With 2 cold winters on the bounce, it will certainly be a disappointment to have a really mild winter with barely a snow flake, even more than in recent years.

[cyclonic happiness]

With 2 cold winters on the bounce, it will certainly be a disappointment to have a really mild winter with barely a snow flake, even more than in recent years.

At leats if we have a mild winter we get some good windstorms with it, something that's been missing down here for a few years.#

But myself, I'd love a winter like last year, I just hope the central heating is working by then.

[Wilxy]

At leats if we have a mild winter we get some good windstorms with it, something that's been missing down here for a few years.#

But myself, I'd love a winter like last year, I just hope the central heating is working by then.

Id love something like we are getting now.

Very wind with gales and blizzards will do me just fine

[chionomaniac]

This winter it is still far too early to call. At the end of last winter I was immediately tempted to call mild, but I am not so sure now. I can't wait until the end of November when a lot of the pieces for the winter jigsaw will be in place and we can all have a good stab at the forecast. I would love to hear what Ian Brown thinks what this winter beholds. Will we get another sub 3ºC month for instance?

[Nights King]

I have a feeling we have been spoilt for 2 years now and this winter may bring us all crashing back to earth with a damp squib but i hope im wrong.

Last winter was the hardest and snowiest i remember however winter of 2009 had the most snow in one fall ive ever seen with around 3 foot over a 2 day period, how wonderful it would be to beat that by getting a classic atlantic front stall on west country to give us record levels like the 80's.

[glasgow-guy]

last winter was the best in years however it was just to cold and to long last winter. I would like to see a return of howling gales and driving rain lets face it the local council haven't fixed the cracked roads and pavements from last winter yet..

[Milhouse]

A short sharp Winter would be nice, not the long drawn out one like the last one was. Many places had to wait until the 2nd week of march to record over 10c. Yes it was notable but this year i am hoping for some mild atlantic weather inbetween the cold spells.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Extra cold please!

[conor123]

Would nice to have a big snowfall event here this winter, last winter had many many snowfall events that missed here in December and the ones in January/February never gave more than a few inches, bring on 2 foot blizzards.

[Don]

The last two Winters were merely rehearsals for the big 62/63 repeat coming for 2010/11!! :unsure: Yes please!

Edited July 16, 2010 by Don

[Thundery wintry showers]

I didn't think last winter went on too long, but I didn't find February anywhere near as impressive as December or January- it was a month of high potential but often limited end product for most, and in the meantime a remarkable absence of temperature fluctuations. The first half of February 2009, I thought, was much more exciting than any phase of February 2010.

Last winter showed that my tolerance for prolonged cold snowy spells is a lot higher than I'd expected, so I will be more in favour of prolonged snowy spells in future than I used to be- but I retain a preference for the cold snowy spells to be separated by interludes where the weather is sometimes genuinely mild. This is mainly for variety, but also partly to minimise the duration of slushy icy spells, which become an issue when cold snowy spells are followed by spells that are merely less cold.

I have a gut feeling that expectations for this coming winter will be too high and that many of us will be left disappointed, but I expect that there will be at least a few notable snow events this time around.

[Guest]

Mmmm. Snow.

I expect a very stormy winter this year. Some snow but loads and loads of wind storms. Last winter was all very well being cold but it was actually quite boring:

Actually on rereading my post I forgot how much fun the snow was in February, but the rest of the winter was fairly boring when you look back at it. Late February was cracking though, just a shame the stalling snow band turned to rain for a few hours the first day and then the back edge was rain for a good while on the second day. Having said that we then had a frost which froze the slightly thawed foot of snow into a solid mass which lay for days on end, well into March (two weeks or so I seem to recall).

[Don]

I didn't think last winter went on too long, but I didn't find February anywhere near as impressive as December or January- it was a month of high potential but often limited end product for most, and in the meantime a remarkable absence of temperature fluctuations. The first half of February 2009, I thought, was much more exciting than any phase of February 2010.

I have a gut feeling that expectations for this coming winter will be too high and that many of us will be left disappointed, but I expect that there will be at least a few notable snow events this time around.

I agree that last Winter didn't go on for too long and also that February was a frustrating month given the potential.

The problem with Winter 2010/11 is it's likely to disappoint even if it's half decent merely because 09/10 was so unusually cold. For example we could be in for a Winter which we would have raved about just 3 years ago, but because of last year, it won't seem like anything special. I think that's what we will have to bear in mind.

Edited July 16, 2010 by Don

[Ben_Cambs]

Way too far off to make any real prediction, except that we know that the brewing La Nina could be a moderate-strong La Nina. The NOAA forecasts (or at least I think its them) are going for a colder and dryer than average winter, I suspect the signals such as the AO and NAO will become clearer around October/November time.

February was a disappointment here, snowfall on 2 days after what could of been a cracker of a month if some of those amazing synoptics had pulled off. I'm hoping for a winter similar to last, but it will be a long time until we have a rough idea on what this winter will bring.

Edited July 16, 2010 by Ben_Cambs

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Marvellous, plenty more please !!

[summer blizzard]

I must say that i do like these early winter threads, i always make it a point to monitor when the first -10C isotherm of the season occurs over the pole, as well as how far south the Jet Stream is, models are not showing the -10C isotherm developing just yet, it usually happens in early August.