Autumn

[Weather-history]

Its been a while since we had a really dry autumn, the last sub 200mm one for England and Wales was way back in 1985

[berometer]

Watch how the solor activity coincides with el nino to produce a trully magic mild winter, badum tish.

[Nights King]

This has been a disappointing summer with only June being quite nice for us in the north of Scotland.

We are only at the end of August and already the met office forecast for Cairngorms National Park for Sunday is Bright or sunny intervals and a few showers, these falling as snow on summits where cold northerly gales expected.

Last year it was on the 2nd October we saw the first falls!

I am still hoping we will get an Indian summer.

Can't have it all.... I could only dream of the winter you just had.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Watch how the solor activity coincides with el nino to produce a trully magic mild winter, badum tish.

We have a strong La Nina and low solar activity.

[Snowmadsam]

We have a strong La Nina and low solar activity.

What could this mean?

[summer blizzard]

The -20C isotherm occurring a few times on the 12z. It's creeping ever closer too, now at just t111.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Now at just 72 hours out, a full 11 days ahead of any year since 1997.

[frostyjoe]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn962.png

Now at just 72 hours out, a full 11 days ahead of any year since 1997.

Its already been, like 3 weeks ago lol.

[Cymro]

Mae wedi bod yn ddechreuad digonol iawn i'r Hydref

It has been a very promising and nice start to the autumn

Edited September 3, 2010 by adamjones416

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Quite a sizeable -20C area

[SNOW GO]

Overview

A rather chilly and often unsettled autumn is expected, with very windy conditions at times, and several chances of early snow in Scotland, and possibly even further south later on in November. Temperature Temperatures are expected to be slightly below the long term average over the three month period.

Precipitation Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be slightly above average. Overall we expect levels to be between 95% to 115%.

September Temperature: Close to or slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

Starting settled with a good deal of fine weather and close to average temperatures. Through the second week of the month a change to unsettled conditions is expected to develop in the south and west, with the possibility of heavy rainfall in these regions. Probably remaining drier in northern and eastern parts..

Second half

We expect unsettled weather during this period. For a time it is may turn unseasonably cold, with the risk of sleet or snow showers over the Scottish mountains, and possibly even lower levels in Scotland for a time. Overnight frost may extend quite widely and a long way south before temperatures begin to recover and further spells of rain develop.

google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);October Temperature: Close to or slightly below average

Precipitation: Above average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially to northern areas. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected to develop frequently, with the likelihood of very windy conditions at times. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but it may well be rather cool in the north.

Second half

Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period. Very stormy conditions are expected to develop at times with strong winds and heavy rain at times. Temperatures generally below average in the north making it cold enough at times for sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland. In the south some warmer incursions are likely, but overall temperatures are likely to be slightly below average.

November Temperature: Slightly below or below average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average

First half

Changeable weather during much of the forecast period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the chance of some snow at times over the Scottish hills. Although wet and windy weather is expected at times, there is also a significant chance of high pressure pushing across the UK at times, giving milder and

drier interludes.

Second half

Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. During the period we expect a significant chance of it turning cold enough at times for heavy snowfall to develop in northern regions, with a chance of wintry conditions extending further south for a time. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average. Forecast Issued 31/08/2010

(TWO) The Weather Outlook Autumn forecast is now out and is overall forecasting a chilly and unsettled Autumn with a risk of a taste of Winter as early as November. TWO I believe got this Summer spot on being the only online LRF provider forecasting in advance the miserable very unsettled and cooler than average August and generally are very accurate compared to the likes of PWS and The Weather Online LRFs.

[Cymro]

Overview

A rather chilly and often unsettled autumn is expected, with very windy conditions at times, and several chances of early snow in Scotland, and possibly even further south later on in November. Temperature Temperatures are expected to be slightly below the long term average over the three month period.

Precipitation Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be slightly above average. Overall we expect levels to be between 95% to 115%.

September Temperature: Close to or slightly below average

Precipitation: Close to average

First half

Starting settled with a good deal of fine weather and close to average temperatures. Through the second week of the month a change to unsettled conditions is expected to develop in the south and west, with the possibility of heavy rainfall in these regions. Probably remaining drier in northern and eastern parts..

Second half

We expect unsettled weather during this period. For a time it is may turn unseasonably cold, with the risk of sleet or snow showers over the Scottish mountains, and possibly even lower levels in Scotland for a time. Overnight frost may extend quite widely and a long way south before temperatures begin to recover and further spells of rain develop.

google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);October Temperature: Close to or slightly below average

Precipitation: Above average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially to northern areas. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected to develop frequently, with the likelihood of very windy conditions at times. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but it may well be rather cool in the north.

Second half

Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period. Very stormy conditions are expected to develop at times with strong winds and heavy rain at times. Temperatures generally below average in the north making it cold enough at times for sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland. In the south some warmer incursions are likely, but overall temperatures are likely to be slightly below average.

November Temperature: Slightly below or below average

Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average

First half

Changeable weather during much of the forecast period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the chance of some snow at times over the Scottish hills. Although wet and windy weather is expected at times, there is also a significant chance of high pressure pushing across the UK at times, giving milder and

drier interludes.

Second half

Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. During the period we expect a significant chance of it turning cold enough at times for heavy snowfall to develop in northern regions, with a chance of wintry conditions extending further south for a time. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average. Forecast Issued 31/08/2010

(TWO) The Weather Outlook Autumn forecast is now out and is overall forecasting a chilly and unsettled Autumn with a risk of a taste of Winter as early as November. TWO I believe got this Summer spot on being the only online LRF provider forecasting in advance the miserable very unsettled and cooler than average August and generally are very accurate compared to the likes of PWS and The Weather Online LRFs.

In all fairness, Two are a great long term weather forecaster and there are many reasons for this, people might think they post what they wish you to hear but that simply isn't the case.

You are right to point out that they had this summer to a tee, also they we're one of the only sites last year predicting a significantly colder winter than average which eventually came into fruitition.

[SNOW GO]

Just been looking at the jet stream forecasts, one thing that has really stood out at me is how strangely the jet stream is acting and has people have pointed out, it has been this way for a few years now.

As the Winter 2010/11 area has been closed on here I did not know where to post this link I found via the Daily Mails Winter forum

http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/

at times its a bit OTT Ice Age now sort of stuff but does mention about the Jet stream and its possible future effects on the UKs weather.

Edited September 4, 2010 by SNOW GO

[BornFromTheVoid]

-20C 850hPa, now at just t51.

[DeepSnow]

There are a fair few trees here with changing leaves now, we don't normally get this for another few weeks yet, is this because of autumns a bit early or something else?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think England should have the Irish season start dates, summer from May 1st to July 31st, strongest/highest sun, the warmest and lightest time of year,

winter from 1st Nov to 31st Jan, darkest time of year, weakest sun and coldest weather generally

Autumn 1st Aug-31st 0ct

spring 1st Feb-30 April

[Cymro]

I think England should have the Irish season start dates, summer from May 1st to July 31st, strongest/highest sun, the warmest and lightest time of year,

winter from 1st Nov to 31st Jan, darkest time of year, weakest sun and coldest weather generally

Autumn 1st Aug-31st 0ct

spring 1st Feb-30 April

No I disagree there for England, Don't forget Wales and Scotland now

We can have very cold weather in February and March. And although things start slowing down in August it's hardly autumnal either, yes last week or so of august this year Was, but I think we have it just about right in this country.

[reef]

I think England should have the Irish season start dates, summer from May 1st to July 31st, strongest/highest sun, the warmest and lightest time of year,

winter from 1st Nov to 31st Jan, darkest time of year, weakest sun and coldest weather generally

Autumn 1st Aug-31st 0ct

spring 1st Feb-30 April

Meterologically speaking, that would be ridiculous in this country. Statistically the coldest period of the year (early-mid Feb) would be in 'spring' and the warmest (early August) in 'Autumn'.

The CETs would be even more silly:

Winter: 5.4C

Spring: 6.2C

Summer: 14.0C

Autumn: 13.4C

You'd get years like 1983 with the winter milder than spring by a long way:

Winter 1983 would be: 6.4C

Spring 1983 would be: 5.0C

Or Summer/Autumn 1949:

Summer: 14.6C

Autumn: 14.9C

The current method is a much better representation of the seasons if you ask me.

[frostyjoe]

No I disagree there for England, Don't forget Wales and Scotland now

We can have very cold weather in February and March. And although things start slowing down in August it's hardly autumnal either, yes last week or so of august this year Was, but I think we have it just about right in this country.

Yeah inoo sure we were 24c yesterday and thats september which supposed to be near autumn, though its 15c today... whens its ever going to get cold, i see the gfs is warmer now than in august, this is starting to worry me.

[Cheese Rice]

There are a fair few trees here with changing leaves now, we don't normally get this for another few weeks yet, is this because of autumns a bit early or something else?

Yes it's the same here, I would love to think that it is earlier than normal but I don't really know. I remember a while back (2005 maybe) that the BBC had a story on the leaves turning earlier than normal, but the winter was nothing talk about, even though it was a little cooler than the following and previous winter.

Edited September 4, 2010 by 10123

[stewfox]

As the Winter 2010/11 area has been closed on here I did not know where to post this link I found via the Daily Mails Winter forum

http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/

at times its a bit OTT Ice Age now sort of stuff but does mention about the Jet stream and its possible future effects on the UKs weather.

It was interesting until you are 1/3rd of a way down.

He has then said he has written to every paper telling them they should issue emergency weather warnings now for the coming winter. He seemed surprised he hasn't had a response ??

Why has the winter 2010/11 thread been closed ?

[Geordiesnow]

-20C 850hPa, now at just t51.

But that -20 cold is the formation of the Poler Vortex(PV) and not actual Arctic cold. If anything, its a bad sight for winter lovers seeing the PV forming so early as once it sets in, it can be mighty difficult too shift.

Anyways, there is cold air flooding down in parts of the Arctic ocean at the moment but looking at the output, it would seem that it will be a slow start to the year regarding widespread cold upper air temperatures thanks to the large scandi high sending quite warm air in the Arctic ocean. Means nothing for winter but it can keep SST's being above average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think you may be confusing the 850hPa charts with the 500hPa ones. On the 500hPa ones, low values represent low heights and so low values around the Greenland area represent the polar vortex being in the vicinity. Low heights are correlated not only with cold, but also with low pressure, and the polar vortex tends to have low pressure spawning and respawning within the area of low heights, preventing northern blocking from arising.

But the 850hPa charts show how cold it is, and do not necessarily reflect where the polar vortex is.

[SNOW GO]

It was interesting until you are 1/3rd of a way down.

He has then said he has written to every paper telling them they should issue emergency weather warnings now for the coming winter. He seemed surprised he hasn't had a response ??

Why has the winter 2010/11 thread been closed ?

I know I thought the same as you at first that whatever the name of the guy was a bit on the extreme attention seeking side. But some of the stuff he talks about does have some substance behind it and he also I think forecast well in advance last Winters cold so prehaps he could be right after all?? Even if the papers think he is some sort of mad man!!

In terms of the Winter 2010/11 thread some said it was a bit early to discuss this Winter a shame closing a good and popular thread down if you ask me but not long a wait now I guess.

[RichardR]

Coolest day of September today, reaching only 17°C with no sunshine. Particularly autumnal, but no worse than half the days in the pathetic wintery Poorgust just gone.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.png

GFS12z has the -20C isotherm forming in 66 hours.

In regards to the Polar Vortex, it is actually well east of the cold pool in this particular case, though i must disagree on the development of a Polar Votrex being a bad thing. A strong polar vortex ensures that there is plenty of cold air to tap into once high pressure does develop oer the pole, it is only a bad thing in +AO conditions.