Autumn

[NorthYorksWeather]

Forget autumn its winter in svalbard already, snow shwers today

[Guest]

Given the strengthening La Nina in charge I suspect the early Autumn period will be quite dominated by the jet, its very 1998 like at the moment in terms of the N.Hemisphere pattern...so be happy we got much of a summer at all, because had it developed maybe 45 days earlier, what we have now would have been most of the summer like it was in 1998.

1998 was a stinker, it was the year my mum's cattery got flooded out in flash flooding in October.

[laserguy]

Strolling around the garden this morning and noticed the first black elderberries.... time to dig out those demijohns .

[Winter Warmer]

feels pretty chilly out there tonight

[summer blizzard]

feels pretty chilly out there tonight

Indeed, Tulloch Bridge is already down to 7C with minima of 5C forecast.

On second thoughts, i'm going to drag up the frost thread because it looks like a cold night on monday and tuesday.

[conor123]

I always breath a sigh of relief September 1st every year now because i know that lovely calm settled sunny summery weather is on the way, there's not been a half decent August since 2003 now here but September is always a refreshing change, i remember September 12th last year being absolutely gorgeous, i even ended up sunburnt!

October 2007 provided many camping trips aswell, many of the nights that month were warmer than days in the Summer.

Obviously there is rarely going to be major warmth on offer in October but it would take some pretty poor luck indeed for this Autumn's sunshine figures to be lower than July's.

[Terminal Moraine]

It's wet, it's almost dark, there's fog drifting across the hills, it's just a foretaste of what's to come and it's absolutely glorious.

[Rollo]

It's wet, it's almost dark, there's fog drifting across the hills, it's just a foretaste of what's to come and it's absolutely glorious.

Its nice to see that someone is very happy about the current weather!!

[laserguy]

Its nice to see that someone is very happy about the current weather!!

TM isn't the only one. As the sunny spells of this morning gave way to leaden skies and the first drops of rain began to fall,my sullen mood eased and my spirit lifted. I'm off work for two weeks so could do with this lasting for the duration. Only way to improve it would be for much more copious rain accompanied by some memorable gales before the cold of winter arrives....

[damianslaw]

Would be good to see some members proper forecasts for this coming autumn seeing that we are nearing the end of the summer.

I don't have the weather knowledge or expertise to give an evidenced prediction. However based on factors such as the predicted active hurricane season, relatively average and even a little below sea surface temps and general pattern in the past few weeks I certainly see an early start to autumn this year.

September - Much more of an autumnal month than summery month unlike many recent years. Plenty of rain and some cool northerly airstreams, hopefully a bit more sunshine than in July and August. Suspect a below average CET.

October - Could go either way but I suspect generally unsettled rather than settled but more on an emphasise on milder south westerlies unfortunately and less sunshine so probably above average rainfall and temps below average sunshine

November - relatively cold and settled in complete contrast to last year with atlantic in sluggish mode.

Anybody else have any monthly predictions for the upcoming autumn?

[summer blizzard]

Well, the way i see it is that the pattern for this Autumn will be dictated by two things..

1) Strengtheing +QBO

2) Strengthening -MEI (La Nina)

In theory, the +QBO should indicate low pressure over the Tropics, and low pressure also over the Arctic, with high pressure at mid-lattitudes due to the strengthening La Nina indicative of a highly amplified and weak Jet Stream, with this in mind, my thoughts are..

September - High pressure over the Arctic will lead to quite a cool and wet September with the track of the Jet Stream very close to us

October - October will continue the theme from September however it could well be a very cold month in relation to average, quite stormy with the Polar Votex beggining to get going as the month progresses

November - A dry month, high pressure always close by with frequent notherly/easterly incursions and a dominant high to the west of the UK, cooler than average.

[CroatianWeather]

Ok,it's time for me to tell my UK autumn forecast !!!

Last few days I studied ocean temperatures in North Atlantic,also I read too much about El nino/La nina,Qbo,Ao,Nao etc....

So my forecast is:

September: In west Europe ,including UK, it's gonna be average in temperatures with some cooler periods but more important is that it's going to be WET and DULL September in UK.

OCTOBER: This month will be also wet and cool month.Temperatures will be close to average but it will be dull and humid and you'll feel like it's colder....

NOVEMBER: In November JET will be very strong.Unlike Summer Blizzard ,I expect mainly wet and colder tha average month...so November will be wintery with at least one STRONG cold spell !!!Chances for bad November are quite big if you ask me....

So,that is just my thoughts......

And sorry for bad English,I am Croatian )

Edited August 19, 2010 by CroatianWeather

[damianslaw]

Well, the way i see it is that the pattern for this Autumn will be dictated by two things..

1) Strengtheing +QBO

2) Strengthening -MEI (La Nina)

In theory, the +QBO should indicate low pressure over the Tropics, and low pressure also over the Arctic, with high pressure at mid-lattitudes due to the strengthening La Nina indicative of a highly amplified and weak Jet Stream, with this in mind, my thoughts are..

September - High pressure over the Arctic will lead to quite a cool and wet September with the track of the Jet Stream very close to us

October - October will continue the theme from September however it could well be a very cold month in relation to average, quite stormy with the Polar Votex beggining to get going as the month progresses

November - A dry month, high pressure always close by with frequent notherly/easterly incursions and a dominant high to the west of the UK, cooler than average.

Your thoughts very much concur with mine and those of many forecasts I have been reading. All point to a proper autumn season and quite likely a cold one reversing the trend of many recent autumns bar 2008 which was quite seasonal with the very early snowfalls in late october.

[noggin]

It's wet, it's almost dark, there's fog drifting across the hills, it's just a foretaste of what's to come and it's absolutely glorious.

.....ain't it just!

[AderynCoch]

It's wet, it's almost dark, there's fog drifting across the hills, it's just a foretaste of what's to come and it's absolutely glorious.

A foretaste of what? The same weather which been dominant for the past six weeks?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

What a splendid, atmospheric day here today. The first really wet day I can remember for many months, with half an inch already, and plenty more to come. The only shame is it's very mild - 17.8º - an on days like this, it's nice to get the fire going.

[The PIT]

What a splendid, atmospheric day here today. The first really wet day I can remember for many months, with half an inch already, and plenty more to come. The only shame is it's very mild - 17.8º - an on days like this, it's nice to get the fire going.

You can still get the fires going just leave the doors and windows open.

may have seen the first signs of Autumn today Horse Chestnut tree in vivid orange colours. Could also have a disease as I believe one is sweeping the country.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You can still get the fires going just leave the doors and windows open.

And they get wet and won't shut then!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The very end of the 06z GFS shows the the first -20C 850hPa of the Autumn, arriving September 5th. 'Tis nice to see those blues and purples appearing on the models again, even if they are nowhere near our shores yet.

[frostyjoe]

The very end of the 06z GFS shows the the first -20C 850hPa of the Autumn, arriving September 5th. 'Tis nice to see those blues and purples appearing on the models again, even if they are nowhere near our shores yet.

everything seems to be coming early this year it won't be long until -5 is over me

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The very end of the 06z GFS shows the the first -20C 850hPa of the Autumn, arriving September 5th. 'Tis nice to see those blues and purples appearing on the models again, even if they are nowhere near our shores yet.

Like most things in deep FI, almost certainly wont turn out anything like that

everything seems to be coming early this year it won't be long until -5 is over me

Isn't it already?

[tinybill]

I do have to smile when I read some of your posts TM.

A real hill fan

they are indeed lad

lost 19 mins at dawn and 11 at dusk so far as we shoot towards Xmas and the return of summer again!

he might be right here on the east coast to-day its 25 been like this for over 2months , but looking at the outlook its looking quite dire to say the least!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Like most things in deep FI, almost certainly wont turn out anything like that

Of course! I'm not expecting the synoptics to be like that, or even for those uppers to appear on that day. It's just since we had -15C uppers appear the earliest since at least 1997, there is a chance the -20C could appear early too, and that was the first time I'd seem 850s forecast that low since probably May!

[Terminal Moraine]

A foretaste of what? The same weather which been dominant for the past six weeks?

Maybe where you are in the pluvially endowed north west but here in the arid southern Peak District, to my great disappointment, we've missed all the heavy rain in recent weeks.

Added to that there's been very little hill fog and it's not been almost dark at 2020 g.m.t.

My case, m'lud, rests on the fact that it will definitely get darker in the ensuing weeks and hopefully also wetter, windier and foggier.

[Optimus Prime]

End of September 1986 was a good example of intense widespread cold pool moving south fast after an exceptionally cold September;

1992 was the first year since 1986 where there was total lack of intense and widespread cold for this date;

1995 and 1996 were very poor;

2006 was the worse;

Recent years that were good;

2002

2005

Edited August 21, 2010 by Optimus Prime