General Storm Discussion Thread

[Harry]

Still a low risk of thundery showers and perhaps an isolated weak thunderstorm or two across Scotland (particularly central, northern and eastern parts) tomorrow afternoon within post-frontal airmass. As upper low and associated cold upper air moves in from the west , mid-level lapse rates will steepen considerably, and daytime heating should generate a few 100j/kg SBCAPE during the period. Upper trough disturbance(s) should provide focus for showers/storms. Lack of DL or LL will prevent organised convection and any severe convective threat, so main threat is heavy rainfall, small-size hail and gusty winds.

Sunday may hold the potential for thundery showers across some parts of England on Sunday - places favoured for these to occur looks like east Midlands and eastern England given somewhat more favourable upper environment conducive to deeper convection, e.g steeper lapse rates and lower EL cloud top temperatures.

Where have I read this before? Oh yes, silly me, in every convective thread so far this summer lol

[Coast]

Where have I read this before? Oh yes, silly me, in every convective thread so far this summer lol

I share your pain Harry, even the sky has made me optimistic at points, with big Cb's up there like lovely mashed potato waiting to turn to anvils. Something's wrong I tell ya!!! Were all doomed!!!

[ZONE 51]

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-07-30 00:58:00

Valid: 2010-07-30 00:00:00 - 2010-07-30 23:59:00

Regions Affected (Northern Ireland, Wales and the majority of Scotland and England are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis An area of Low pressure situated to the northwest of Scotland will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Friday. As a set of weather fronts cross the country during this forecast period, there appears to be a chance of embedded convection along the cold front, and close to the triple point. The chance of thunder and lightning occuring is quite low, hence only a WATCH level has been issued, despite cloud heights looking reasonably favourable. A weak funnel or tornado is also possible.

a muggy night thats for sure, i think some active downpours mixed in as it crosses (cold front)maybe some thunder, im staying with that idea..

[ZONE 51]

storm guide

[Stuart]

Forcast for sat here

Saturday:

Most areas will have a mixture of sunny intervals and showers, the showers perhaps turning heavy and locally thundery in the afternoon mainly over the high ground of the Borders. Maximum temperature 18 °C.

Updated: 1503 on Fri 30 Jul 2010

good there are risk of thunder here on sat but let see

Edited July 30, 2010 by Stuart

[The PIT]

Looking at the netweather extra there does seem to be a small active area on the cold front right at the point close to the triple point. Now this could just all fizzle out but may give some unexpected heavier rain to places as it moves eastward.

[sunny scunny]

but may give some unexpected heavier rain to places as it moves eastward.

It sure is pit.It's currently hammering down here

[Nick F]

Sferic detected recently across Pennines of Yorkshire and earlier between IoM and Lancs, quite an active cold front/triple point moving through over N England this evening.

[Hodgheg]

Can confirm thunder heard in wakefield about 2 hours ago

[<<Ryan>>]

Heard one HUGE crack of thunder bout an hour ago in bed and now we have a power cut.

[Harry]

Or as last year, where there were multiple storms many of which were at night

[staplehurst]

Heard one HUGE crack of thunder bout an hour ago in bed and now we have a power cut.

But there was absolutely nothing on the radar at that time? Having said that, I watched the intense cell on the radar, the only one for miles, pass over your location around 3am.

[Harry]

But there was absolutely nothing on the radar at that time? Having said that, I watched the intense cell on the radar, the only one for miles, pass over your location around 3am.

Ultra positive bolt?

[A.J]

No signals coming through from ECM or GFS of a significant change in the synoptics that would favour widespread storm potential, so other than today and perhaps a couple of days next week for Nern UK, the outlook remains quiet. A very persistent pattern at the moment, which I wouldn't be surprised held out towards the end of summer, at least.

Really poor season, storm-wise. Roll on Autumn, at least then the weather should get a lot more interesting, with active LP systems bringing strong winds and sometimes decent convective storm potential.

Damn right!....need a bit of active weather to stimulate the soul!.......I remember back in the Autumn of 2006, when i was still living in Torbay, just before I moved up here, we had our best storm evening in years....4 active 'pulse' type thunderstorms in the space of 6 hours...lovely!

[Nick F]

But there was absolutely nothing on the radar at that time? Having said that, I watched the intense cell on the radar, the only one for miles, pass over your location around 3am.

If I remember right he maybe on holiday in Scotland or northern England? Or he's telling porkies!

Chance of some thunder across Scotland today in the heavy showers becoming more widespread, especially towards the eastern/northeastern side. Upper low sat over Scotland today with its cold uppers giving steep lapse rates = unstable to surface heating.

[Stuart]

i am keeping my eyes and ears open for today here but it only a smill risk:D

[The PIT]

If I remember right he maybe on holiday in Scotland or northern England? Or he's telling porkies!

Chance of some thunder across Scotland today in the heavy showers becoming more widespread, especially towards the eastern/northeastern side. Upper low sat over Scotland today with its cold uppers giving steep lapse rates = unstable to surface heating.

Or the local sub station has gone bang hence the power cut.

[dogs32]

i cant remember such a bad year for storms in general across the country..

Even last year was just exciting to watch the East get storms on radar..

Though Im gratefull for lots of sun so far on and off with out the bang :lol:

should of gone to spec savers

I hear Jane Louise as emigrated also AJ to India where they get Supercells in the monsoon..

And Paul.S well what can I say??

Last he was heard of was on route to Area51 with Susan lightning lady chasing Arizonia Storms..lol

and can you blame him....

and Coast is now a French citizen living in Calais watching regular storms...

and me ,well im having therapy for storm addiction :w00t: with Amy stormhouse in rehab

seriously its times like these I wish I didnt have such a passion for storms...

good luck to the Scotish folk

Edited July 31, 2010 by Pat Carter

[ZONE 51]

heavy downpours breaking out across the Grampian region, most likely thunder soon, storms developing during the next couple of hrs across the storm risk areas.

good luck to those storm watchers up there

[ZONE 51]

maybe a thundery auturmn then....

[dogs32]

maybe a thundery auturmn then....

yea...I reckon a huge TS outbreaks in September..thats my gamble

[ZONE 51]

just been reading the model thread and theirs a good post by Nick.F that september can be hot and with thunderstorms usually from X-TSs ,this is hope for us! and as the hurricane season gets going during august their is a good chance were see them as x-storms or lows and they should contain a warm humid airmass with them and a low moving up from biscay bay would be ideal. we have august and september yet!

Edited August 1, 2010 by nimbilus

[Stuart]

and for my area

It will be a bright morning with sunny spells. Also dry for much of the time across Dumfries and Galloway. Heavy showers will break out over the Lothians and Borders this afternoon wit ha risk of thunder. Light northwesterly winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

but let see what happen

[Stuart]

update on this metoffice have a weathr warning out for my area

Heavy showers this afternoon and this evening may give accumulations of 15 to 20mm within 3 hours. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the latest Scottish Environment Protection Agency Live Flood Warning Information, and also to Traffic Scotland for further advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 1217 Sun 1 Aug

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_warnings.html

[NL]

Some heavy showers now arriving here in Tyne & Wear, very 'stormy' looking skies. Suprised we aren't included in the METO warnings as we've just had an incredible heavy shower with huge raindrops...

NW 5min Radar...

Unfortunately the soundings from this area aren't currently available but looking at the GFS wind profiles i was wondering whats the chances of a few funnels or a weak tornado..?