General Storm Thread

[Nick F]

Quite potent tail-end of the line of heavy showers/storms clearing NE England across the N Sea ... mid-level dry air intrusion running parallel with SW-NE cold front across N England ovelapping the warm moist SW'erly surafce flow creating increased instability across NE England.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Quite potent tail-end of the line of heavy showers/storms clearing NE England across the N Sea ... mid-level dry air intrusion running parallel with SW-NE cold front across N England ovelapping the warm moist SW'erly surafce flow creating increased instability across NE England.

Hi Nick,

Any reason why there's no sferics from these showers? It's quite surprising looking at their intesnsity.

Hopefully the other showers will intensify just the same but hopefully produce some sferics next time.

[Buzzit]

Looking very interesting for the far north

http://www.sat24.com/

[Nick F]

Hi Nick,

Any reason why there's no sferics from these showers? It's quite surprising looking at their intesnsity.

Hopefully the other showers will intensify just the same but hopefully produce some sferics next time.

Dunno why mate, lightning strikes seem to have been absent E of the Pennines - apart from over the N Sea!

[Stuart]

well no storms at the weekend for me at this pont

[The PIT]

Looking very interesting for the far north

http://www.sat24.com/

I wish it would look interesting here :lol: Another poor year as far as storm go for us. Even the Sheffield shield went on holiday as it wasn't needed.

[Nick F]

Recent sferics across western side of North York Moors from some lively cells now moving on off out over the N Sea.

Seems to be some slight disagreement between 12z GFS and 12z UKMO/FAX with positioning of the cold front tomorrow - with UKMO/fax further south with the front. The front develops a wave from the west later tomorrow as a shortwave in the jet moves NE from the Atlantic. CAPE modelled to build across central/southern/eastern England in the afternoon in warm moist airmass just ahead of slow-moving WSW-ENE aligned cold front. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear may be conducive for severe weather, though profiles (especially lower to mid-levels) look rather saturated on GFS, so this maybe restrictive from a tornado potential point of view.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I wish it would look interesting here :lol: Another poor year as far as storm go for us. Even the Sheffield shield went on holiday as it wasn't needed.

Yeah, don't quite see how the whole of the UK warranted a level 1 warning from Estofex today :s nothing doing round these here parts certainly. Met Office seemed mostly spot on the money

[Supacell]

Tomorrow is a bit confusing for me.

The GFS storm risk charts show the highest risk for tomorrow night as being about 100 miles south of the main area of CAPE. There is an area of convergence that moves south during the evening. Is it this area that is going to spawn any storms or is this the front?

Of course we won't know exactly where the waving front will be until probably tomorrow afternoon.

Nothing here today but I will be staying with family in Derbyshire tomorrow night so am hoping to see something. Of course I need for the front to be a little further north than forecasted for this to happen.

Edited August 20, 2010 by Supacell

[Stuart]

i hope the risk move more north for tomorrow night and in to sunday i will just have to see on tomorrow Morning run to see if it a go or no go here for storms

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some very intense radar returns north east of Manchester, looks like a right deluge under that.

[SNOW GO]

Some very intense radar returns north east of Manchester, looks like a right deluge under that.

Just had a heavy passing downpour here in Weston sky looking quite dark currently. Have you caught any downpours near you yet Crewe Cold??

[Jane Louise]

Good evening all:)

UKASF storm forecast is out for tomorrow.:)Good luck again. I'm not sure if Stuart is included in this one but good luck Stu if you are!

Just waiting on Estofex, UKww and Netweather now for their forecasts tonight.

Regions Affected

Wales, Midlands, East Anglia and SW England (the remainder of England and Wales, and NW Scotland is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Angelika" (FU Berlin) situated to the north of Scotland will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Saturday.

To the south of a waving cold front, a warm and very humid airmass is advected across central and southern Britain. Embedded convection is forecast to develop along the front across SW/C-Britain, providing a focus for scattered thunderstorms. The environment in which these will/may develop looks quite favourable for severe development, with a chance for moderate-size hail, and a moderate-intensity tornado possible. However, due to the uncertain extent of thunderstorm coverage, only a THUNDERSTORM threat level has been issued at this stage, but may be upgraded during Saturday. Any storms that do develop will move in a NE direction along the front.

Across NW Scotland, scattered showers in the rPm airmass pose a low threat (20% chance) of thunder and lightning.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-333/

[Stuart]

Thanks Jean but it be a no go here for sat

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Good evening all:)

UKASF storm forecast is out for tomorrow.:)Good luck again. I'm not sure if Stuart is included in this one but good luck Stu if you are!

Just waiting on Estofex, UKww and Netweather now for their forecasts tonight.

Regions Affected

Wales, Midlands, East Anglia and SW England (the remainder of England and Wales, and NW Scotland is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Angelika" (FU Berlin) situated to the north of Scotland will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Saturday.

To the south of a waving cold front, a warm and very humid airmass is advected across central and southern Britain. Embedded convection is forecast to develop along the front across SW/C-Britain, providing a focus for scattered thunderstorms. The environment in which these will/may develop looks quite favourable for severe development, with a chance for moderate-size hail, and a moderate-intensity tornado possible. However, due to the uncertain extent of thunderstorm coverage, only a THUNDERSTORM threat level has been issued at this stage, but may be upgraded during Saturday. Any storms that do develop will move in a NE direction along the front.

Across NW Scotland, scattered showers in the rPm airmass pose a low threat (20% chance) of thunder and lightning.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/module-Storm/mode-forecast/id-333/

I'm right in the eastern portion of that

Edited August 20, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Supacell]

Looks like some interesting weather tomorrow. As Weather09 says, we need to wait and see where that front ends up. I am hoping it is in the right place to give me a storm (i'll be in the north Midlands).

Edited August 20, 2010 by Supacell

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just had a heavy passing downpour here in Weston sky looking quite dark currently. Have you caught any downpours near you yet Crewe Cold??

nope nothing of note here, just a heavyish shower around 4pm. Looks like we may well miss out tomorrow aswell.

[SNOW GO]

nope nothing of note here, just a heavyish shower around 4pm. Looks like we may well miss out tomorrow aswell.

Crewe storm sheild again at it again tommorow, we always seem to miss out on any action! So close yet so far!

Edited August 20, 2010 by SNOW GO

[Marcus_surfer]

Here is some footage of the thunderstorm we had here in Swansea today (Friday) pretty intense stuff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11040299

[J10]

Here is some footage of the thunderstorm we had here in Swansea today (Friday) pretty intense stuff.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11040299

There certainly was intense rainfall today, monsoon like, also caught one or two flashes of lightning and some people said there was sheet lightning as well.

[Lynxus]

Good stuff, Now ive heard some thunder on that vid, Am i out of the no storms club yet? Its slowly getting lonely in here.

[Nick F]

Have issued a storm forecast for tomorrow, can be seen here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=ebef6929c7fc4a69ec3fafe96615d1d3

[Evening thunder]

What's peoples thoughts on whether convection will be surface based over the land or whether there will be some embedded thunderstorms along the front like what moved into Wales early this morning? I hope there's some of the latter scenario otherwise I won't see much here with this wind direction.

Looking at the charts etc I'd imagine there may be a bit of both but with most of any severe threat perhaps from any convection that gets going over land due to daytime heating

Could hopefully be interesting for some anyway

Edited August 20, 2010 by StormMad26

[SimonP]

Ugh, here in the home counties, I still consider us part of the no-storms club (namely because one or two rumbles of thunder and some convective rain doesn't count as a "storm" in my books) so am really hoping Saturday produces... But am not holding out hope - still too many factors that have to be "right" to make it happen, coupled with the fact Beds/Bucks are only just within the forecast area looking at the convective forecast.

I'm really hoping to see something decent before the season's over... Totally dismal thus far!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

A huge chance of bugger all here tomorrow i fear.