Winter 2010/2011

[MP-R]

All up in the air at the moment I think. Personally I wouldn't mind getting early cold in November and December, after all this is a better time for lying snow than January and February as the sun's strength is virtually nil. However for it to be blasted to a distant memory with Jan/Feb like 2002 would be awful. It's not different to summer coming in May and June then rapidly buggering off in July/August.

I also stick with my assurance that if the Atlantic was to fire up during January, the fact we have much lowered solar activity, hopefully a good deal of entrenched cold here and on the continent, we may see more channel lows and/or battlegrounds like Jan 13th this year. And equally, zonality from the NW can be interesting with bright showery regimes and often thunder. The only problem is they tend to get locked in for a long period of time and if it ended up as zonality from the west or southwest - we're stuffed!

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a winter similar to 08/09 though. That had a bit of everything but was still below average.

[Optimus Prime]

Much like every winter there are always discussions with regards to the Gulf/Jet whatever it is stream being slow. It's NOT as simple as if it's slow the UKs in a Russian climate. The oceans are still going to be warm with the icecap very far north meaning the UK will still be under the influence of the warm oceans. Also if it is slow/weaker that doesn't mean it will be cold, it could mean high pressure is more dominant but it is more dominant in an area that keeps winds coming in from the south over the UK.

You take away the current you don't take away the Atlantic. That'll take years to cool down as a result if it's true what scientists think MAY happen in the worse case scenario

Edited September 9, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[summer blizzard]

Strengthening

2002

1993

1983

1978

Dec – 4.9C, 0.2C below average

Jan – 5.0C, 0.8C above average

Feb – 4.6C, 0.4C above average

Weakening

2007

2004

1998

1991

1974

1972

1970

1965

1960

1956

Dec – 5.0C, 0.1C below average

Jan – 5.1C, 0.9C above average

Feb – 3.6C, 0.6C below average

Mature

2009

2000

1995

1988

1986

1981

1979

1976

1967

1964

1962

1958

Dec – 4.3C, 0.8C below average

Jan – 2.8C, 1.4C below average

Feb – 2.7C, 1.5C below average

I have gone over the QBO data for +QBO winters since 1948 and compiled the average temperature of the winter months.

As you can see, +QBO winters typically have cool Decembers no matter what, however mature +QBO winters are statistically coolest, averaging well below average.

The good news is, of the three anologues which match the current QBO pattern best (1992, 1987 and 1982, so the winters of 1993, 1988 and 1983), one was a mature +QBO's, though the others were strengthening. This is great news for the winter and looking at that we can also deduce that 2008/2009 was so cold because of the mature +QBO conditions and there is a slightly better chance that we will see mature conditions because only 1987 saw a bigger rise between July and August, and that is the mature anologue, so at the very least, we are odds on to see mature conditions during Febuary.

Strengthening

2009

1999

1997

1996

1984

1982

1968

1967

1963

Dec – 3.0C, 2.1C below average

Jan – 1.7C, 2.5C below average

Feb – 3.0C, 1.2C below average

Weakening

1986

1976

1972

1965

1957

1956

1955

1953

Dec – 4.8C, 0.3C below average

Jan – 4.2C, average

Feb – 2.1C, 2.1C below average

Mature

2008

2006

2002

2001

2000

1989

1985

1975

1974

1971

1962

1961

1960

1951

Dec – 4.7C, 0.4C below average

Jan – 3.8C, 0.4C below average

Feb – 4.5C, 0.3C above average

Categorical proof, La Nina statistically correlates to a colder than average winter no matter what state it is in.

As you can see from my analysis of the effects of the QBO and La Nina on the winter CET, a below average December is amost a given, however January and Febuary are on a knife edge at the moment.

For this winter, you need to look at the strengthening and mature QBO CET values, and the strengthening and weakening La Nina values.

[ribster]

Best anologues for the current La Mina and Arctic Occilation are 1954, 1964 and 1981. Best anologues for the current QBO are 1992, 1987 and 1982.

I'll take Jan 87 - more snow that I've ever seen in my life (in this country that is).

[summer blizzard]

I'll take Jan 87 - more snow that I've ever seen in my life (in this country that is).

That would be the winter of 1987/1988.

[Guest]

Can anyone summarise the experts' views on the winter of 2009/2010 which were provided in September 2009?? Who said what? Who predicted a warm winter or a cold winter? Who genuinely foresaw the winter we had last year? I know people will cite Joe B but he always goes for a cold winter.

Is there any a priori reason to assume that any of the long range forecaster will be right this year??

Or can we just wait and see what happens??

[The watcher]

I think these poeple backing their predictions with previous QBO and La Nina data show very interesting ideas to the thread. Keep it coming. Enjoying the statistical side of this thread, even if it is a little early to forecast Winter accurately....Catch my Drift?

[richardc1983]

Hey everyone, this is my first post on the forum so please be gentle with me:

I am really interested in the coming winter to the point of becoming obsessed with reading up about peoples predictions etc on the internet.... glad to have found this forum to discuss with like minded people.

I initially got started when I came across this discussion after googling "winter 2010/2011 predictions"... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/newsdebate/r/t-10137958/index.html (if you want to read it from the beginning you need to read it from page 10 -1 as page 1 contains the most recent posts at the top.

Recently a poster called weathergeek has been participating and has shown some very good points... I have been following his blog etc... http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/2010/09/uk-winter-forecast-update-201011.html and he is also on twitter although doesnt participate as much.

I know its very early to start causing mass panic but on another forum that I participate on I posted a similar sort of thing in the discussion forums and was met with mixed replies. http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=2704029

Anyway I am really hoping for a proper traditional christmas just like last year was nice cold/snowy and being cosy at home on xmas day with the family. It was great!

Can anyone summarise the experts' views on the winter of 2009/2010 which were provided in September 2009?? Who said what? Who predicted a warm winter or a cold winter? Who genuinely foresaw the winter we had last year? I know people will cite Joe B but he always goes for a cold winter.

I do believe positive weather solutions forecasted a cold winter and the low temperatures upto March.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Summer Blizzard's analysis is very interesting, and shows some strong omens for a possible cold winter. However, a word of caution. The winters of 1982/83, 1987/88 and 1992/93 went broadly as follows:

1982/83:

December- a westerly month, cold and snowy at times in the north (especially around the 15th-23rd), quite mild in the south

January- very mild and westerly-dominated, very sunny in the NE, very dull in the W

February- cold, snowy first half with NE winds then anticyclonic

1987/88:

December- cold anticyclonic first half but not much snow (just a brief NE'ly with wintry showers at one stage) then mild westerly-dominated 2nd half

January- generally mild & wet, quite sunny, only wintry spell of note being the 21st-23rd

February- exceptionally sunny in the south, some cool zonality & marginal snow events in N & W in the first third, northerlies in the last week, otherwise mild

1992/93:

December- mostly mild westerly first half, more than offset by cold anticyclonic second half

January- exceptionally windy, very mild in the south, although very wintry in the north in the second week

February- dull, dry and mild for the vast majority of the month, cold bright snowy weather on the last two days

1982/83 was probably about average snow-wise but 1987/88 and 1992/93 were rather below- and all three winters had a very "westerly" January.

[Guest]

OK - I will put my neck out

November - Mostly anticyclonic with fog and some frost.

December - Starting off mild with a cold snap in the middle but getting milder again for Christmas with little liklehood of snow in the south, then getting colder towards the New Year but no exceptional snowfalls, severe frost or cold weather.

January - First half relatively mild but cooling down in the second half of the month and this and the first half of February being the time for any really significant snowfall.

February - After the cold snap from end of Jan to beginning of Feb, starting to warm up again to av temps with sunshine & showers.

March - Starting off the month on a quiet anticyclonic spell withe the westerlies coming in about mid month, followed by the northerlies, giving us some lying snow for short periods.

April - Month starts off cool with northerlies giving us some "daffy" snow at the beginning, then warming up but still sunshine and showers expected for the rest of the month.

Overall I expect temperatures to be about average, or just perhaps slightly below.

Source of information - Feeling in my bones!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well we have had 2 superb winters here.I must confess i didn;t think i'd ever see a winter like the last one again after all the furore about Global warming but i guess it just goes to show nothing is a given as far as the weather is concerned.

All that said im not expecting anything like last year,im always interested in snowcover build up up north in Autumn,not sure what it was like last Oct/Nov,does anyone know ?

[Isolated Frost]

November - Westerlies turn to fierce Northerlies early on, with the weather worst best in the north and eastern parts, many parts as far down as Birmingham will get their first snowfall since the solstice. During mid-month, the Scottish Highlands take a sharp dip, going from average night time temperatures of -1c to around -6c, along with western parts seeing slightly lower temperatures than usually, with the South West being the warmest. As the cool weather fades, an occluded front moves in, and puts temperatures near average, across the country. Towards the end of the month, a cold Arctic front moves in from Siberia, and temperatures in the Shetlands dip, as severe snowfall hit's the top of the nation. The Southern parts remain average, with snowfall still rare in the mountain ranges and Wales. Northern Ireland and Northern England should see a slight drop in temperatures, with sleet mostly falling in the North West and wintry showers elsewhere.

Scotland: Temperature - Below Average

Precipitation - Slightly Below Average

England: Temperature - Average

Precipitation - Slightly Above Average

Wales: Temperature - Slightly Above Average

Precipitation - Slightly Above Average

Northern Ireland: Temperature - Average

Precipitation - Above Average

December - The cold front moves fiercely in during the early days, and Scotland is left ravaged, with up to 25inches in even the lowland areas during the first week, as the snowband moves south, it gains momentum with strong winds with occasional thundersnow in the South East. Temperatures don't get above freezing in most Northern areas, even during the daytime. Northern Ireland then experience's it's first snowfall with up to 10inches in 1day in some places. As the snowband steadily moves South East-wards, the temperatures rise slightly in the north, thawing and melting small amounts of snow in cities like Birmingham, Hull and Liverpool. As the snowband leaves the nation, the effects will be shown. Temperatures don't max above 2c in the North and 4c in the South. With the Highlands getting constant snow throughout the month, Aberdeen and Inverness get many top up's between the 10th and 15th. More top up's from cold front's give snowfall in areas above 100m in Scotland, 150m in Northern England, Wales and the Midlands, 200m in Southern areas and Northern Ireland, with sleet and wintry showers expected on lower ground. Expect consistent top-up's of around 4-15cm of snow each day, until a warm band comes in during the 27-28th of the month, with temperatures rising around 5c during the day, and above average temperatures expected for the rest of December.

Scotland: Temperature - Below Average

Precipitation - Above Average

England: Temperature - Below Average

Precipitation - Above Average

Wales: Temperature - Below Average

Precipitation - Slightly Above Average

Northern Ireland: Temperature - Below Average

Precipitation - Slightly Above Average

January/February/March - Unfortunately, there shouldn't be anything else, cold and occluded fronts along with bands of rain from the atlantic will give strong winds and heavy rain, with snow and sleet expected over higher ground. A sunny spell where temperatures max on around 8c in Scotland, 9c in the North and Northern Ireland and 10c everywhere else will occur in late January, early February. Expect heavy rain and strong winds for the majority of February, with sunshine breaking through, but in March, a warm, dull month awaits.

January - Cold throughout, with strong windchill. Lack of snow apart from high ground (250m+). Warmer areas in Western regions.

February - Early warm temperatures dip as strong wind and rain ravage nation. South East will be warmest, expect storms in Scottish areas and North West England, flash floods possible in Cumbria.

March - After early rain, month turns dry, temperatures go above average with sun and cloud dominating, expect high humidity before summer weather kicks in during the end of the month. South East could get up to 18c!

Wild guess. 0.00001% chance of happening.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

1987/88:

December- cold anticyclonic first half but not much snow (just a brief NE'ly with wintry showers at one stage) then mild westerly-dominated 2nd half

January- generally mild & wet, quite sunny, only wintry spell of note being the 21st-23rd

February- exceptionally sunny in the south, some cool zonality & marginal snow events in N & W in the first third, northerlies in the last week, otherwise mild

Hi TWS,

Was it only in East Anglia that there was almost 2 weeks of gridlock with most minor roads blocked? The weather was cold from around the 6th, but not cold enough for snow, but when we got the the night of the 13th/14th we had a heavy snowfall with drifts of over 10 feet in places. It took 4 days to get a tanker of heating oil from Norwich to what was then Mundesley hospital. I remember this as I hit a snowdrift on the morning of the 14th at about 5:15 as I was on may way to work, I was only 200 yds from the house, I didn't go anywhere for a week!!

[TonyH]

Well we have had 2 superb winters here.I must confess i didn;t think i'd ever see a winter like the last one again after all the furore about Global warming but i guess it just goes to show nothing is a given as far as the weather is concerned.

Same here- I was doubting that a harsh Winter would happen again in my lifetime and last Winter although not exactly 'harsh' certainly managed to restore faith that it's still a possibility.

As others state, the patterns do seem most unusual for recent years, and more especially this year, so a second notably cold Winter on the trot is more likely?

I hope for similar very cold episodes to the late Dec/ early Jan one as that was beautiful to behold, a persistant snow cover, severe frosts and sunny days! A mix of said very cold spells alternating with stormy Atlantic ones (giving copious rain/snow, squally showers, hail and the like) would be appreciated.

Edited September 10, 2010 by Tonyh

[weathe20]

OK - I will put my neck out

November - Mostly anticyclonic with fog and some frost.

December - Starting off mild with a cold snap in the middle but getting milder again for Christmas with little liklehood of snow in the south, then getting colder towards the New Year but no exceptional snowfalls, severe frost or cold weather.

January - First half relatively mild but cooling down in the second half of the month and this and the first half of February being the time for any really significant snowfall.

February - After the cold snap from end of Jan to beginning of Feb, starting to warm up again to av temps with sunshine & showers.

March - Starting off the month on a quiet anticyclonic spell withe the westerlies coming in about mid month, followed by the northerlies, giving us some lying snow for short periods.

April - Month starts off cool with northerlies giving us some "daffy" snow at the beginning, then warming up but still sunshine and showers expected for the rest of the month.

Overall I expect temperatures to be about average, or just perhaps slightly below.

Source of information - Feeling in my bones!

Dont think your sticking your neck out there mate, that is a good description of a normal winter we get in the UK. You have made a very safe bet there.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi TWS,

Was it only in East Anglia that there was almost 2 weeks of gridlock with most minor roads blocked? The weather was cold from around the 6th, but not cold enough for snow, but when we got the the night of the 13th/14th we had a heavy snowfall with drifts of over 10 feet in places. It took 4 days to get a tanker of heating oil from Norwich to what was then Mundesley hospital. I remember this as I hit a snowdrift on the morning of the 14th at about 5:15 as I was on may way to work, I was only 200 yds from the house, I didn't go anywhere for a week!!

Are you sure you're thinking of winter 1987/88 and not the previous winter? Your description sounds highly consistent with the exceptionally cold easterly outbreak of 11th-14th January 1987, during which eastern England including East Anglia were heaviest hit:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870113.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00219870113.gif

Stats for Norwich Weather Centre from Tutiempo.net do point to a wintry end to February 1988, but not on anything like as large a scale.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Are you sure you're thinking of winter 1987/88 and not the previous winter? Your description sounds highly consistent with the exceptionally cold easterly outbreak of 11th-14th January 1987, during which eastern England including East Anglia were heaviest hit:

http://www.wetterzen...00119870113.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00219870113.gif

Stats for Norwich Weather Centre from Tutiempo.net do point to a wintry end to February 1988, but not on anything like as large a scale.

What amazing charts they are, that is some decent cold pool there!

[Guest]

Dont think your sticking your neck out there mate, that is a good description of a normal winter we get in the UK. You have made a very safe bet there.

You guessed!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Preliminary Winter Thoughts 2010/2011

Here are my preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter as I promised last month. Factors affecting weather forecast from the period 01.12.2010- 28.02.2011 are as follows:

• State of the NAO
• The current La Nina
• QBO
• Continued low solar activity
• Current North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
• Potential SSW events

Looking at the current long range model output for the period in question sheds little certainty on what the likely winter patterns will be; however at present there is a consistent signal for the winter to open on a below average note in terms of temperatures. This can be misleading however as the below average temperatures could quite easily be as a result of the models picking up on an inversion 'faux cold' scenario a la December 2008, with high pressure sat across the country.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif
This link shows the likely pressure distributions over the coming months, though I must stress this is just one model. December and January show blocking centred around or just south and east of Greenland which is a good sign if you are looking for snow and cold weather to dominate. However, given the lack of detail this far out it is impossible to say whether a block over Greenland would result in a west based or east based -NAO. By February, the block has slipped to lie across the UK which pretty much backs up the thoughts of Stuart (Glacier Point) If that pressure distribution was to unfold for Feb as seen there, a rex block of some description would probably prevail with settled, dry and cold weather in the south and milder Atlantic weather dominating further north into Scotland and Northern Ireland.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
The link above illustrates the current state of the La Nina fairly well. It has been mooted that a strong La Nina can prohibit the chances of a cold winter; however, the way I am seeing things at the moment is that things are a little bit different this time round. As BFTP (Fred) has stated, we appear have entered the dominant La Nina juncture of the perturbation cycle which hasn't showed its hand for around half a century until recently.

• Southward Shift of the Jetstream

Since the woeful summer of 2007, the jetstream has been behaving strangely and has presented us with its tendency to migrate further south than has been the case pre 2007. Also showing a tendency to amplify and 'buckle' in places bringing unusual synoptics to some areas (European winter 2009/2010, Russian heatwave, Pakistani floods as obvious examples). This southward shift enables to PF to push further south than might usually be the case and increasing the risk of cold to affect more areas.

December 2010

Characterised by frequency of North to Northeasterly air masses. Strong jet stream forcing depressions to undercut blocking around the Greenland area. Northern Ireland and Scotland often dry but cold- lowest average temperatures for the month. England and Wales are likely to be cold and wet, especially the further southwest you are situated- repeated milder interludes may proceed bands of sleet and snow with the middle part of the country experiencing the greatest instances of snow falling.

CET estimate: 3.5-4.5c BELOW AVERAGE

January 2011

A month of two halves. A disturbed and cold first half of the month beckons I feel, High pressure centred to the northwest maintains a cold feed but low pressure encroaches from the south at the same time. In between, often frosty and ocassionally very wintry with snow showers and some longer outbreaks of snow towards north east facing coasts especially.

Second half of the month sees things warm up a bit as a tropical maritime airmass encroaches to bring spells of rain and only hill snow to most areas.

CET estimate: 3.2-4.2c AVERAGE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE

February 2011

After a spell of unsettled weather to finish off January, February is an uncertain month. At the moment I am going for a settling down of the weather, high pressure centred across south east Britain and the Low Countries ensures cold and frosty weather at night but pleasant by day. For Northern Ireland and Scotland, a mild, cloudy Atlantic feed is likely to bring a dull month but also milder temperatures.

CET estimate: AVERAGE

[SNOW GO]

We are only in September and this paticular chart is way out in terms of model accuracy but interestingly the Meteociel model this evening is showing some very chilly

looking charts for the end of the month that ties in well with The Weather Outlooks forecast for unusual cold for some parts in the coming weeks. Will a taste of Winter arrive early? I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Alex95]

Hmm, I have to say those long range CFS charts from NOAA from November - January are mouthwatering, and quite similar to last year I must add! I'm quite happy with the outlook, though the worst of the winter could be over by sometime in January if these charts come to fruition. I certainly won't be complaining though if we get some decent snowfalls between November and January I'm certainly looking forward to the winter now that the summer is fading away, September is my least favourite month, bar a few late-summer warm weekends! I don't mind October as winter doesn't seem so long off and the weather can be quite exciting, so, roll on October!

[stewfox]

Can anyone summarise the experts' views on the winter of 2009/2010 which were provided in September 2009?? Who said what? Who predicted a warm winter or a cold winter? Who genuinely foresaw the winter we had last year? I know people will cite Joe B but he always goes for a cold winter.

Is there any a priori reason to assume that any of the long range forecaster will be right this year??

Or can we just wait and see what happens??

Yes is there any links to last years guesses to see if anything came out.

I'll wait to mid November for expert opinion for this years but its a fun read.

Funny very few go for mild

Edited September 10, 2010 by stewfox

[beng]

Apologies if this has already been posted (I don't see it though glancing through the thread) - but Joseph D’Aleo (US Met) has issued his first thoughts on the upcoming winter. His record last winter was pretty good, although past performance is no guarantee of future success!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

Basically for Western Europe the forecast is starting cold Dec and becoming colder still (relative to the average) during the later half of the winter. A noticably negative NAO to dominate and trouging over Europe - with the AO turning negative too later on. It's a similar pattern to 1916/1917 in fact should it happen.

[cheeky_monkey]

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

looks like a very cold winter in western canada if those charts were to come true

[Guest]

In the 1916/1917 winter season CET was 1.9C Dec, 1.2C Jan, and 0.7C Feb, making a mean of 1.9C for the winter.

Rainfall over the winter period was 179.5 mms, so a lot drier than normal.

Just hope that if it follows this pattern they turn out to be clear and not cloudy highs.