Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[abbaman]

As in my post above I want no more snow at all for the next 20 years. All as it is bad for the older folks as they can not get out to do thier shopping and such. But snow is good for some but bad for others. If we had weather like africa I will be happy with top of north africa weather will be fine to me. In winter but with our summer as we are. All winter mild with a nice mixed summer with rain and sunny weather. So we have all year round mild weather with a few heavy rain showers and a few days of thunder as well. Thats what weather I want for the next 25 years Whishful thinking but you never knw it can happen. Send this weather we have now to africa give them bad snow and heavy snow for the next 30 years apart from sengal. They never get bad weather like we do so it's about time they had our Weather so thats the weather I want forseeable future for good. with the high presssue over the uk for good all winter and most of the summer with a few lows but not under 1c so we have the peferct weather all year. We need weather like that and I will be a happy Bunny. Snow is not good as a lot of cars and motar vicheals can crash in the ice and snowy weather. I'm sure that some people will like this all year round. To keeps us nice and cosy with a mild spell all year round but need winters mild over 10c all the time. and keep the weather forcasters saying nothing but nice and dry weather. I don't mind rain in winter but that pesky snow noway at all. As a friend of mine who lives in africa always come to our winters as he loves snowy weather. But as I have run some software for climate change we are going to get a swing in things for a few years like mild winters and mild summers. Not bad winters like the last one it did a run for the next 5 years and it came with a mild winter for 5 years with more mild winters to come. I can not give a reading or scaned printout of it as you can not printout as this will not allow printouts so thts my pridection with that sofware.

Edited January 18, 2011 by abbaman

[ZONE 51]

I must say though if i hit my 80s il be looking for snow events! wonder how forecasting will be then..ah an idea for a thread anyone, would you be looking for snow in your 80s? ..

Edited January 19, 2011 by nimbilus

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am getting a hunch that this season is more likely to end up as a topsy turvy one in the manner of 1890/91, rather than the straightforward progression of 1981/82. 1890/91 had that record-breaking cold December, a milder January, and then a notably mild dry sunny February, which was synoptically similar to the recent spell of 8-20 February 2008. A sudden switch to very cold snowy weather then occurred in early March 1891 and there were further snowfalls in the following May.

I am struck by the way the teleconnections are pointing towards a February with a similar pattern to February 1891 (high pressure over the UK extending into Europe) and the strong La Nina, which in recent years has often been associated with notable snow events in the spring. Certainly something to bear in mind.

Some sample charts to back up my suspicions:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1891/Rslp18910218.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1891/Rslp18910224.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1891/Rslp18910302.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1891/Rslp18910308.gif

I would hardly call January 1891 a milder month - it was rather a "less cold" month than the exceptional December, it had a CET of 1.3, so it was still a much colder than average month overall. February 1891 (a bit like Feb 1982) was equally non-descript, and was dominated by frequent mid-latitude HP, very dry, and saw a number of mild days and cold nights - a bit like mid-Feb 2008, especially late in the month.

Winter 1890-91 was a bit better than this present one has been so far. The very cold conditions of Dec 1890 continued for a large part of January, then there was a break with more average temperatures in the Feb, then March 1891 actually saw much in the way of late season cold spells.

I think that we can safely say that mid-latitude HP will dominate more or less the rest of this month now, so it looks as though January will finish up as very much a milder non-descript month compared to December, although it currently looks as though the CET is unlikely to finish much above average. What February brings remains to be seen, although by the end of this month it looks highly likely that we will look at this winter so far and see that winter dissappeared abruptly on December 27th - unlike 1981-82 where at least the first half of January brought some severe weather - and in 1890-91 where the cold continued for a large part of January.

So, up to the end of January it looks highly likely that despite the exceptional early season cold, it will still seem something of a dissapointment compared to 1981-82, or 1890-91.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I could provide some counterarguments regarding the comparison between 2010/11 (so far) and 1890/91:

• In 2010/11, very cold weather set in during the last week of November, while in 1890/91 it took until the first week of December.
  
• December 2010 was a dull month in south-east England but a very sunny one in most other regions. Conversely December 1890 was widely one of the dullest Decembers on record, all regions had only a small fraction of December 2010's sunshine totals, and in parts of Greater London there was no sunshine at all during the entire month. There was also a lot of cold dull dry weather associated with high pressure extending across from Scandinavia and central Europe, and many regions didn't see a great deal of snow. Thus, I have a sneaking suspicion that many of us would have had a rather lower opinion of the month.
  
• January 1891 may have been a lot colder than this January (well pointed out) but for most it was also a notably dry anticyclonic month, so, again, probably not a great deal of snow.
  

It's a matter of opinion, but I don't think of the February 1891 type scenario as non-descript- like you mention the setup had a lot in common with mid February 2008, and it's pretty rare to get a winter setup which produces dry, sunny weather with warm days and cool nights across a large majority of the British Isles. Of course what we get in February 2011 is still conjecture at this stage, the teleconnections suggested quite a mild February in 2010 at this range, and it didn't materialise.

Re. comparison with 1981/82, I think this winter hasn't reached the heights of 1981/82 in terms of overall amounts of cold and snow, but it isn't far behind, and if we get any significant wintry spells in February and/or March it will overtake 1981/82 in many parts of the country.

[Weather-history]

[*]In 2010/11, very cold weather set in during the last week of November, while in 1890/91 it took until the first week of December.

Actually, the cold set in the last week of November 1890 as well. It was very snowy in the SE of England.

[Thundery wintry showers]

You are right:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1890/Rslp18901125.gif

I assumed that there was probably no major cold in late November because of the brief mild interlude that I saw around the 1st December- didn't bother flicking back to the 25th-28th November 1890 which show a cold east to north easterly flow- so quite a similar build-up to that severe December then.

[Eugene]

Well it looks like a HP dominated pattern we are now entering after a very brief atlantic spell, hardly any mild to talk of this winter apart from late last week which is a great achievement when winds are predominately from the SW in the UK.

A return to zonality looks very unlikely indeed and a dry/cold winter almost assured.

[Summer of 95]

How about comparing this winter to 1985/6, shifted forward a month? November 1985 was the coldest of the century IIRC, then there was a mainly mild December, mixed January and very cold Feb. This seems the best comparison I can find to this winter, and if it's right we're in for a pretty exciting March.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well it looks like a HP dominated pattern we are now entering after a very brief atlantic spell, hardly any mild to talk of this winter apart from late last week which is a great achievement when winds are predominately from the SW in the UK.

A return to zonality looks very unlikely indeed and a dry/cold winter almost assured.

Since 1988, at least until the last year or two, winds from the SW have become twice as predominant as they used to be pre 1988.

Pre 1988 on average I would say:

Winds are from a westerly quarter around half the time, although more often zonality was of the colder polar maritime variety rather than tropical SW.

Another quarter of the time mid-latitude High Pressure areas cover the UK.

The remaining quarter I would say that northerlies and easterlies delivered by high latitude blocking cover the UK, although the depth of the cold varies on each occasion.

What has happened is that since 1988 the zonal flow has become more mild and far less of the cold variety. Mid-latitude blocks have become more common as there has often been too much energy in the PV for them to retrogress further north. Northerlies and easterlies from high latitude blocks have become increasingly rare part of the weather pattern although the last couple of years have brought a change.

[damianslaw]

Far too early to start summarising how this winter will be remembered. We have nearly 6 weeks left of the meteorological winter left, and I always say especially here in the north winter doesn't begin to loosen its grip until around the third week of March, indeed the first half of March can bring severe cold conditions to the north - recent example being 2006 and the first half of March 2010 was consistently very cold.

Many quite rightly are comparing how this winter so far has beared a resemblence to 1981/82, I remember many at this time last winter were doing the very same. In terms of Dec, yes, but Jan no, the real cold slipped away post christmas and we have had nothing so far this month in terms of proper cold, unlike Jan 1982 which saw a very signficant cold period between 5-15th.

It will be very interesting to see how people rate winter 09/10 against 10/11.. will the severe cold in Dec cancel out the rather lacklustre Jan/Feb I wonder and mean it is percieved every bit as good as winter 09/10, despite the CET being appreciably higher? We shall wait and see, I am not writing off a severe cold spell at some stage in Feb, the way the atlantic is behaving those continental cold pools will be ready to pounce on us once we enter Feb.

[Alex95]

Far too early to start summarising how this winter will be remembered. We have nearly 6 weeks left of the meteorological winter left, and I always say especially here in the north winter doesn't begin to loosen its grip until around the third week of March, indeed the first half of March can bring severe cold conditions to the north - recent example being 2006 and the first half of March 2010 was consistently very cold.

Many quite rightly are comparing how this winter so far has beared a resemblence to 1981/82, I remember many at this time last winter were doing the very same. In terms of Dec, yes, but Jan no, the real cold slipped away post christmas and we have had nothing so far this month in terms of proper cold, unlike Jan 1982 which saw a very signficant cold period between 5-15th.

It will be very interesting to see how people rate winter 09/10 against 10/11.. will the severe cold in Dec cancel out the rather lacklustre Jan/Feb I wonder and mean it is percieved every bit as good as winter 09/10, despite the CET being appreciably higher? We shall wait and see, I am not writing off a severe cold spell at some stage in Feb, the way the atlantic is behaving those continental cold pools will be ready to pounce on us once we enter Feb.

This winter has certainly beaten last winter here. Last year, there was 7cm just before Christmas, and then 28cm into early January. This year there was 40cm in late November which lasted well into December, then the severe cold spell at Christmas was great - a maximum of -8°C one day where I was in Penrith, then 8cm of snow even on Christmas Day itself back at home. After the 10th January last year the only other snowfall was 9cm which lay for 4 days at the end of January, then lots of marginal snow events in February. The deepest cover I recorded last February was 2cm, and it was often dull and miserable, so even if we get no more snow at all this winter I'll rate it above last year as the best of the winter lasted about 6 weeks, similar to this year. That of course is assuming we don't see any more severe cold in February, and I have a sneaky feeling Spring will bring a few late season surprises, rather like the La Nina Springs of 2008, 2001 and 1996.

[Summer of 95]

Far too early to start summarising how this winter will be remembered. We have nearly 6 weeks left of the meteorological winter left, and I always say especially here in the north winter doesn't begin to loosen its grip until around the third week of March, indeed the first half of March can bring severe cold conditions to the north - recent example being 2006 and the first half of March 2010 was consistently very cold.

Many quite rightly are comparing how this winter so far has beared a resemblence to 1981/82, I remember many at this time last winter were doing the very same. In terms of Dec, yes, but Jan no, the real cold slipped away post christmas and we have had nothing so far this month in terms of proper cold, unlike Jan 1982 which saw a very signficant cold period between 5-15th.

It will be very interesting to see how people rate winter 09/10 against 10/11.. will the severe cold in Dec cancel out the rather lacklustre Jan/Feb I wonder and mean it is percieved every bit as good as winter 09/10, despite the CET being appreciably higher? We shall wait and see, I am not writing off a severe cold spell at some stage in Feb, the way the atlantic is behaving those continental cold pools will be ready to pounce on us once we enter Feb.

Winter 2009/10 here: 18 days snow lying (0900), max depth 6cm

December 2010: 21 days, 15cm

Last winter was a one-month trick here snow-wise; Dec and Feb had only 3 days of lying snow between them (November 2010 had 4), and the 2cm we had on the morning of Jan 7th 2011 was 1cm more than Dec 2009's greatest depth, and equal to February 2010's.

So even if the rest of this winter is snowless, 2010/11 would still be much the snowier.

[egret]

I must say though if i hit my 80s il be looking for snow events! wonder how forecasting will be then..ah an idea for a thread anyone, would you be looking for snow in your 80s? ..

I can sort of answer that. My son, nephew and I were out tobogganing a few years back. After about half an hour my late father, who at that time was 82 had been watching us with a big smile on his face and a plum red nose, blurted out -'come on then, lets have a go'!

He lay down head first and trundled off down the hill on the toboggan. My comment was then and remains now - I hope I get to follow in his footsteps. If I last that long I certainly plan to!

[sundog]

I think even at this stage i would rate this winter higher then last winter. The snow i got in December 2010 was the most snow ive seen in a long time and the cold the most extreme in many years. Last winter mid Dec to the 10th jan was a very good cold spell but still not as good as late Nov to late Dec this winter. I did not get much snow last winter after 10th Jan anyway.

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note the posters above appear to rate their winters based on snowiness as opposed to amount of cold....

If I was to compare this winter so far to last winter based on snowiness, whilst we have seen slightly more days of snow falling so far this winter compared to last year, depths this year have been rather poor here, 4-5 inch max compared to nearly a foot in Dec 2009. However, compared to last winter the amount of cold so far has been far superior, with 18 ice days recorded so far which I still find astonishing all of them coming before the 27th Dec.

Indeed the period 26 Nov - 26 Dec 2010 beat the period 18th Dec 09 - 15th Jan 10 hands down.

What will be interesting is how the period 27 Dec 10 - end Feb 2011 rates against the same said period during winter 09/10 which apart from a milder blip in the third week of Jan was predominantly cold even if after the second week of Jan it produced marginal light snowfalls.

I don't believe you can say a great December makes a great winter, you need at least two good months before you can say the winter as a whole was a good/very good one. If the weather stays as it is now through to the end of this month, and we see a mild Feb with little snow then I will be classing the winter as a whole as average, however, if we see some proper cold and snow in Feb then it will become quickly and rightly a good one if not very good one in my books beating last year. This quiet anticyclonic spell is doing wonders to help the winter be classed as at least an average one as a whole - the only way is for its rating to go up during Feb rather than down which is something we have been able to say in many recent winters (last just about excluded).

[Thundery wintry showers]

My opinion depends on which location we're talking about. I think for Cleadon in Tyne and Wear, the 2010/11 season is currently beating 2009/10, and has a good chance of still being in front come the end of February 2011. Between 20 January and 28 February 2010 Cleadon's only memorable weather event was the big snowstorm on the 29th/30th January and a few crisp sunny days around then- otherwise most of that spell was pretty unremarkable, characterised by persistent slightly below-average temperatures, frequent wet snowfalls that rarely settled, and a shortage of sunshine.

In contrast in Norwich 2010/11 is a long way behind 2009/10, and considering that February 2010 was a more interesting month down here with a couple of decent snow events and more temperature variety (though still a comparitive letdown after the preceding December & January) it's hard to see February producing enough to enable 2010/11 to even approach 2009/10 here. Yes, it's been comparably cold, but nothing like as snowy, and sunshine amounts have also been well down. It goes to show how much of a difference regional variation can make.

[sundog]

One thing ive noticed over the last 20yrs or so ,well for my location anyway, is the lack of snowfall in the second half of January. I honestly cant remember the last time i got a decent snowfall during the second half of January.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it might just be your location. There were widespread snowfalls across the UK on 25-27 January 1996, 18-21 January 2001, 30/31 January 2003, and 27/28 January 2004. Snowfalls occurred on a more localised basis on 16/17 and 27/28 January 1994, 24-30 January 1995, 19/20 January 1998, 25 January 2001, 18 January 2005, 23/24 January 2007, and 29-31 January 2010 (plus I've probably missed a few others).

That said, there has been an overall trend in the last 20 years for January to be less snowy than December and February. The winters of 1993/94, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2008/09 all fell into this category over large areas of the UK, and that's an unusually high proportion considering that long-term averages have January at least level with February and ahead of December.

[Weather-history]

The rest of January looks anticyclonic now. Another winter month where Atlantic zonality has been in the minority and another winter month lacking notable gales.

[TEITS]

Just been looking at the rainfall figures for my location and although I realised its been dry I was surprised how low the rainfall has been. The combined average for my location for Dec, Jan is around 100mm. So far i've only seen 30mm!

Whatever happened to those atlantic storms which back in the early 1990s we were told would increase due to GW.

[Summer of 95]

One thing ive noticed over the last 20yrs or so ,well for my location anyway, is the lack of snowfall in the second half of January. I honestly cant remember the last time i got a decent snowfall during the second half of January.

A few years ago now I posted the list of dates in winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) that had never had lying snow here since 1990, now it needs updating. Currently they are:

11-16 Dec

16-23 and 25-26 Jan

17-20 and 22 Feb. Not 29th- lying snow in 2004.

They do seem to come in blocks, with no real "stand-alone" days (the last one, 25 Dec, was crossed off the list in spectacular style in 2010!) 24th Jan which breaks up the late-January block saw it once, in 1996- so since then there has been an 11-day snowless period. The last two winters have removed a whole host of dates in Dec and Jan from the list, notably the entire first week of December.

I would imagine, looking at the Shawbury records, that 1985 and 1987 (before I moved here) had lying snow on the 16th-19th but not the 20-26th as it suddenly turned mild after the 19th in both years. I do vaguely remember a snowfall in January 1988 which lasted only a day or two, this seems to have been around the 20th.

But the 23rd-26th? 1979 looks OK for the 23rd (snow recorded, max 0C and 1.2mm precip) but it reached 3C on the 24th so might have struggled to keep it. Unless that 18mm on the 20th was all snow (looks marginal with the temps) which stuck and stayed. 1978 the 26th might have managed it, as snow is indicated after a minimum of -3 though it would have been short lived. 1984 is the only possibility I can find for the 25th, and it looks marginal, maxes around 2C and 1-2mm over 24th-25th despite subzero mins.

[Thundery wintry showers]

25th January 1984 probably will have had lying snow in your area, as there were some big snowfalls on the 21st-24th with only the south of England often on the wrong side of marginal.

[Guest]

Whatever happened to those atlantic storms which back in the early 1990s we were told would increase due to GW.

I have to pick up on this part of your post and agree with you. Whatever happened to the increase in wind storms? For your location this would be less of an issue but I live in the west of Scotland and we haven't had a severe storm since Jan 1999. So much for the battering we were supposed to get due to global warming. It hasn't happened yet and it isn't going to happen for at least another year.

From my limited research into wind storms these tend to happen in clusters every 5-15 years, you would think with global warming that wind storms would be more common but the latest 12 year lull is only a few years off exceptional.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall that the Januarys of 2005 and 2007 had some pretty severe winds at times. The 8th January 2005 produced the Tyne and Wear's severest gale of the "noughties" which was right up there with anything that the 1990s produced, there was another severe one in northern Scotland shortly afterwards, and the 18th January 2007 was pretty severe in places.

[Guest]

I recall that the Januarys of 2005 and 2007 had some pretty severe winds at times. The 8th January 2005 produced the Tyne and Wear's severest gale of the "noughties" which was right up there with anything that the 1990s produced, there was another severe one in northern Scotland shortly afterwards, and the 18th January 2007 was pretty severe in places.

Aye TWS there were severe wind storms on those dates, but nothing has hit here since 1999. 8th Jan 2005 started off very windy for us but as soon as the severe winds started they fell still. It was almost as if we were in the eye of the storm. Everywhere north and south of here was pounded but we missed the worst of the wind.

Just bad/good luck.

The 18th Jan 2007 storm is an interesting one as I remember it produced severe gales (even storms) down south but we had a good dump of snow that day on the northern flank of the low. Ross B will recall that day as it was 9C and rain at Prestwick while 30 miles north it was 1C and heavy snow. I don't think he's ever recovered from that one :lol: