Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[beng]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

Cooling now beginning. I don't really like the look of this - too similar to 2007 - although obviously patterns at the surface have been somewhat different.

[ZONE 51]

As far as my understanding goes on the upper atmosphere and reading this thread, its looking quite incredible! im learning this stratosphere stuff and it just has to do great things(for ice day lovers) in time when im getting interested in it! can't get better than that. this could for the whole winter and so far is very exciting.

Is it a good theory to say-start at the top layers and work your way down-when forecasting long range?

[chionomaniac]

Just one chart of significance today - but oh what a chart. From the ECM at 100 hPa for T+240.

Here we see the GH attempting to join up with the Pacific High. This would in effect fully displace the polar vortex to the Eurasion land mass. If that occurs then our Air mass would come from the Bering straight, right across the Arctic ocean, through the NP to the UK. Amazing.

[Southern Storm]

Just one chart of significance today - but oh what a chart. From the ECM at 100 hPa for T+240.Here we see the GH attempting to join up with the Pacific High. This would in effect fully displace the polar vortex to the Eurasion land mass. If that occurs then our Air mass would come from the Bering straight, right across the Arctic ocean, through the NP to the UK. Amazing.

Hi Chionomaniac is it the troposphere effecting the stratosphere or vice versa? also if the Gh and Ph join together what would happen to the polar vortex?

does it have a chance to regroup and separate the block? or is it something that could lock in

this pattern for the rest of winter?

Thanks

Edited December 8, 2010 by thunderman24

[chionomaniac]

Hi Chionomaniac is it the troposphere effecting the stratosphere or vice versa? also if the Gh and Ph join together what would happen to the polar vortex?

does it have a chance to regroup and separate the block? or is it something that could lock in

this pattern for the rest of winter?

Thanks

I often consider that the troposphere and stratosphere influence each other. The stratospheric vortex is intensely strong at the top of the stratosphere(50-80m/s) and weakens as it nears the troposphere(10m/s).Even though the stratosphere has cooled this winter at the North Pole this doesn't tell the whole story. There have been a number of upper minor warmings along the vortex boundary which has effected the strength and importantly the shape of the vortex. It is the distortion of the shape and position of the upper vortex that I think has been crucial in helping modifying the lower vortex and shaping what we have already experienced and what is forecast this season. I would have thought that we would have seen a dramatic cooling of the stratospheric vortex starting by now.

If the GH and PH join forces as it were then there would be a cross polar flow towards the UK. What happens after this is anyones guess (unchartered territory). My guess is that the block would slowly weaken allowing the vortex to resume a more familiar position. We still couldn't rule out further disruptions though.

c

[chionomaniac]

GFS in good agreement at 10 days out (100hPa level)

[karyo]

Why there are no posts here?

An update would be appreciated given next week's confusing model output...

Karyo

[jethro]

Like everything else on this forum, this thread is entirely voluntary, something that folk do whilst dealing with everything else in their busy lives, work, family, getting ready for Christmas etc.

Perhaps a politer request for an update or insight into the model output, accompanied by a please would be more appropriate eh. Manners cost nothing.

[chionomaniac]

Like everything else on this forum, this thread is entirely voluntary, something that folk do whilst dealing with everything else in their busy lives, work, family, getting ready for Christmas etc.

Perhaps a politer request for an update or insight into the model output, accompanied by a please would be more appropriate eh. Manners cost nothing.

Spot on jethro. Will try and update this evening.

[chionomaniac]

Latest update.

First tonight it is worth looking at the latest forecasts at the 100 hPa level. This modeling of this part of the lower stratospheric vortex is important in how a Greenland high may develop and subsequent vortex positioning. The main theme in the modeling at this level has been the displacement and maybe partial splitting leaving a strong section of vortex elongated over the Eurasion land mass. This can be seen quite clearly on the GFS 100 hPa T+240 forecast chart.

This set up is excellent for driving polar troughing towards the UK.

The ECM paints a different picture but please note that we can only see yesterday's picture. The ECM was suggesting yesterday that the trough heading towards the UK would be split by a Scandinavian ridge forming. Here one can see the ECM 100hPa chart that supported this.

It is almost a mirror image of the GFS chart and a total anomaly to what the ECM had been projecting previously.

My guess is that the GFS is right here with its outlook with the displaced polar vortex heading our way before the UK troughing segment fades.

So to the future and what are the longer term signals?

Well I have to say that the signs are that the series of minor upper warmings are coming to an end.

Here we can compare today with the forecast for T+240:

The second chart shows an end to any forecast warming with the polar vortex cooling ominously.

When we compare the stratospheric temperatures from this year to last we can see that we are in a cooler regime and with the minor warmings reduced the polar vortex is likely to increase in strength and maintain a more central position over the North Pole come January.

This to me suggests that the forecast high latitude blocking is likely to come to an end by the end of the year. What we get in its place will depend ultimately on the phase of the GWO and MJO and the influence of La Nina. When looking at the MJO composites it certainly looks that GP may be right with Atlantic based mid latitude blocking the likely replacement.

c

[karyo]

Latest update.

So to the future and what are the longer term signals?

Well I have to say that the signs are that the series of minor upper warmings are coming to an end.

c

Is there a chance that further warmings may occur in the next few weeks?

It seems to me that the very blocked pattern that we have cannot be fully explained by the minor warming that we've had so far.

Karyo

Edited December 10, 2010 by karyo

[chionomaniac]

Is there a chance that further warmings may occur in the next few weeks?

It seems to me that the very blocked pattern that we have cannot be fully explained by the minor warming that we've had so far.

Karyo

There is always a chance that further minor warmings may occur. I think that the pattern of warmings seen so far and the squeeze that they have place on the upper levels of the stratospheric vortex will have helped any tropospheric influences manifest themselves in the form of blocking seen and projected. But I agree there is still a lot more to learn.

[karyo]

There is always a chance that further minor warmings may occur. I think that the pattern of warmings seen so far and the squeeze that they have place on the upper levels of the stratospheric vortex will have helped any tropospheric influences manifest themselves in the form of blocking seen and projected. But I agree there is still a lot more to learn.

Thank you.

Karyo

[lorenzo]

Chiono - thank you for this thread - fantastic summaries.

Am trying to get to the bottom of why blocking seemingly wants to establish again and again on the models and there is plenty to read in here to help me unravel this, summaries of the plots are superb. This December so far seems to challenge your opening post excerpt below, having limited knowledge of the mechanics of the QBO - do you think this has influenced the blocked pattern ?

This year the QBO is in a westerly phase. The westerly phase flows in the same direction as the polar vortex circulation which does nothing to inhibit the flow, and the BDC is also reduced in a westerly phase. Therefore this year the polar vortex is likely to be stronger than last and as a result high latitude blocking is less likely.

Now got some reading to do - http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/10S1_LGray_SolarInfluencesCLimate.pdf

[chionomaniac]

Chiono - thank you for this thread - fantastic summaries.

Am trying to get to the bottom of why blocking seemingly wants to establish again and again on the models and there is plenty to read in here to help me unravel this, summaries of the plots are superb. This December so far seems to challenge your opening post excerpt below, having limited knowledge of the mechanics of the QBO - do you think this has influenced the blocked pattern ?

This year the QBO is in a westerly phase. The westerly phase flows in the same direction as the polar vortex circulation which does nothing to inhibit the flow, and the BDC is also reduced in a westerly phase. Therefore this year the polar vortex is likely to be stronger than last and as a result high latitude blocking is less likely.

Now got some reading to do - http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/10S1_LGray_SolarInfluencesCLimate.pdf

Hi Lorenzo you have a very valid point.

I think that this winter if there was any chance of any cold before the stratosphere cooled dramatically then December was it. And that so far is what we have seen. I have been surprised by the extent and mount of blocking experienced so far and am sure that the solar minimum has a large factor in this. However it is early days to write off the polar vortex just yet and I am concerned hat those expecting blocking to continue through December may be disappointed.

But whatever way the pendulum swings I will continue to monitor the stratosphere to see how this interacts with the troposphere!

c

[lorenzo]

With the last summary you gave and cooling it certainly looks like the reinforced blocking may ebb. January looking messier.

I was looking for a correlation between QBO and Volcanic Activity and found one paper released last year. Sorry lost link.

I guess there is no lead time for analysis into the impact of Iceland - although if not Iceland, then Solar Impact must be one of the contributing factors to increased blocking.

Other TC's are throwing up signals out of the norm also. AO vs La Nina

Thanks for the response, this is certainly a thread I will monitor as looking retrospectively I think right now your on the button for longer range

[chionomaniac]

Anyone who follows the stratospheric profiling will be concerned by the ECM's offering this morning. So far we have seen good support from the stratosphere for the formation of a Greenland High and subsequent trough based over Siberia with some energy thrown towards the UK in what looked like a sausage shape over the Siberian/Eurasion land mass.

The profiling in the middle stratosphere has kept a ridge towards the Atlantic and less so towards the Pacific with a reduced the polar vortex on he Canadian sector.

However the signal is changing. The ECM middle stratospheric profile forecasts are changing theposition of the sausage shape of the vortex from Siberia to reside over the Atlantic sector. This is being determined by ridge building over the middle stratospheric Pacific sector probably due to the earlier warmings and ozone levels concentrations higher here.

The ECM stratosphere profile fits in nicely for T+240 with these ozone concentrations

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

The GFS will not update until later but it will important to see how the model manages the repositioning of the vortex. My guess is that it will start to edge closer towards the ECM.

[bluearmy]

Anyone who follows the stratospheric profiling will be concerned by the ECM's offering this morning. So far we have seen good support from the stratosphere for the formation of a Greenland High and subsequent trough based over Siberia with some energy thrown towards the UK in what looked like a sausage shape over the Siberian/Eurasion land mass.

The profiling in the middle stratosphere has kept a ridge towards the Atlantic and less so towards the Pacific with a reduced the polar vortex on he Canadian sector.

However the signal is changing. The ECM middle stratospheric profile forecasts are changing theposition of the sausage shape of the vortex from Siberia to reside over the Atlantic sector. This is being determined by ridge building over the middle stratospheric Pacific sector probably due to the earlier warmings and ozone levels concentrations higher here.

The ECM stratosphere profile fits in nicely for T+240 with these ozone concentrations

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

The GFS will not update until later but it will important to see how the model manages the repositioning of the vortex. My guess is that it will start to edge closer towards the ECM.

given that we are told the meto 30 dayer forecast has strat input now, i would expect the length of the cold to begin to be downplayed by monday's forecast if this ecm output is the same by then. GP has alluded to some energy in the atlantic but he did say that he expected the mid atlantic block to win out, given the strengthening nina type atmospheric response he expects.

[geoffw]

surely the stratosphere is not the 'be all and end all' in LRF's! or is it vital?

[chionomaniac]

given that we are told the meto 30 dayer forecast has strat input now, i would expect the length of the cold to begin to be downplayed by monday's forecast if this ecm output is the same by then. GP has alluded to some energy in the atlantic but he did say that he expected the mid atlantic block to win out, given the strengthening nina type atmospheric response he expects.

I would expect that as well, ba.

Latest GFS stratospheric charts confirm my thoughts and are edging towards the ECM. I do not see any Scandinavian height rises. I see more energy filtering through into the Atlantic at around T+240, with the northern blocking slowly dissipating. Eventually the polar vortex will head further north and as this occurs it will allow a mid latitude block to take up residence in January.

Here is the latest GFS T+240 100hPa stratospheric chart which also hints at more energy in the Atlantic sector.

It reminds of the kind of chart seen following the Feb 2009 easterly when blocking didn't re-establish itself. And the middle stratospheric vortex is powering this system.

I think that it is a case of making the most out of what could be a legendary 10 day cold spell - perhaps lasting a bit longer further north.

c

surely the stratosphere is not the 'be all and end all' in LRF's! or is it vital?

It is as important as an engine is in your car to turn the wheels.

Edited December 11, 2010 by chionomaniac

[Weather-history]

surely the stratosphere is not the 'be all and end all' in LRF's! or is it vital?

Nobody seems to be answering your questions geoffw, so I will try. EDIT chiono has

The answer is there are far too many variables to put all your eggs in one basket, IMO, you got SSTs, stratospheric conditions, solar effect etc.

The question I'm asking myself is why the upcoming northerly blocking is more impressive with stratospheric conditions as they are then they were after that large warming event back in early 2009?

Edited December 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[chionomaniac]

Nobody seems to be answering your questions geoffw, so I will try. EDIT chiono has

The answer is there are far too many variables to put all your eggs in one basket, IMO, you got SSTs, stratospheric conditions, solar effect etc.

The question I'm asking myself is why the upcoming northerly blocking is more impressive with stratospheric conditions as they are then they were after that large warming event back in early 2009?

I think for this blocking episode it is a case of everything tropospherically and stratospherically coming together at the right time. That didn't really happen in 2009 - it was much more as if the SSW interrupted what would otherwise have been a milder pattern.

[geoffw]

very good point and thank you mr data. i believe solar influence directly affects the stratosphere. dont be surprised to see changes in the stratospheric forecasts i.e. warming of the stratosphere is very probable

[Weather-history]

I think for this blocking episode it is a case of everything tropospherically and stratospherically coming together at the right time. That didn't really happen in 2009 - it was much more as if the SSW interrupted what would otherwise have been a milder pattern.

Thanks for your reply chiono although it comes across as being more down to luck than anything else. We are lucky this time, we were not quite as lucky back in early 2009. For a layman like me, its hard to grasp.

[cooling climate]

I would expect that as well, ba.

Latest GFS stratospheric charts confirm my thoughts and are edging towards the ECM. I do not see any Scandinavian height rises. I see more energy filtering through into the Atlantic at around T+240, with the northern blocking slowly dissipating. Eventually the polar vortex will head further north and as this occurs it will allow a mid latitude block to take up residence in January.

Here is the latest GFS T+240 100hPa stratospheric chart which also hints at more energy in the Atlantic sector.

It reminds of the kind of chart seen following the Feb 2009 easterly when blocking didn't re-establish itself. And the middle stratospheric vortex is powering this system.

I think that it is a case of making the most out of what could be a legendary 10 day cold spell - perhaps lasting a bit longer further north.

c

It is as important as an engine is in your car to turn the wheels.

They have changed quite substantially in the last couple of days just like the

synoptic ECM charts although as you say the GFS has tended to move in this

direction as well.

Amazing take your eye off the ball for a day or two and its all change although

personally I would hold fire for a day or two to see if this is put back.