Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[Glacier Point]

I wouldn't rule it out Phil although there was one element was noticeably weak or absent in those years you've cited - a strong west QBO away from the solar maximum.

We can also see that this Nina is behaving true to type in that the polar jet is the main player forming the boundary between milder air and colder polar air which in itself places the jet stream, albeit weak, closer to the polar field putting pressure on blocks attempting to form at high latitudes.

[phil nw.]

I wouldn't rule it out Phil although there was one element was noticeably weak or absent in those years you've cited - a strong west QBO away from the solar maximum.

We can also see that this Nina is behaving true to type in that the polar jet is the main player forming the boundary between milder air and colder polar air which in itself places the jet stream, albeit weak, closer to the polar field putting pressure on blocks attempting to form at high latitudes.

Thankyou Stewart--yes the QBO-i take it was more favourable (Easterly)in those cold Winters thus weakening the vorex allowing it to split easier.

I guess what you are suggesting is that any Mid-Latitude blocking is likely to become flatter as Winter goes on with less Meridonality in the flow and more energy over the top.

This would tend the flow wore Westerly,that`s if we are not under any blocking.?

If this is the outlook then it would be rather disappointing for cold lovers.

Let`s hope for some warmings then.

Edited December 1, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[knocker]

Excuse my ignorance but would this be a normal setup at 30hPa for this time of year?

[beng]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

Interesting patch of yellow has just popped up - the same thing happened this time last year in fact

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2009.gif

Now compare this to what happened at this time during the last proper la nina event

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2007.gif

Edited December 2, 2010 by beng

[johncoolj]

http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2010.gif

Interesting patch of yellow has just popped up - the same thing happened this time last year in fact

http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2009.gif

Now compare this to what happened at this time during the last proper la nina event

http://www.cpc.ncep....OND_NH_2007.gif

Hey what could that patch of yellow mean ?

more cold here in uk ireland

sorry i dont know much about this

[chionomaniac]

Hey what could that patch of yellow mean ?

more cold here in uk ireland

sorry i dont know much about this

The patch of yellow shows increased temperatures at the 1Hpa level. At this level the mean speeds of the stratospheric vortex are very strong so some amount of warming could help reduce these slightly. The problem that GP has alluded to is that the warming is not being propagated further down than the 10 hPa level. In fact this level is forecast by the GFS to warm up considerably by T+168;

Now this does have some effect on the shape of the stratospheric vortex

and I believe that these effects must be felt down to the troposphere. With the warming not propagating below 10 hPa will the speed of the vortex still be strong despite the fact that distortion of the vortex may cause a lower split?

Edited December 2, 2010 by chionomaniac

[bluearmy]

go on then chio, i'll take a strong p/v dopping into scandi as the greeny ridge rebuilds between the split vortices mid month - now i'm being greedy :lol:

incidentally, NOAA cpc predict a neg AO to mid month in any case. cant see a way out of the cold at present.

[chionomaniac]

go on then chio, i'll take a strong p/v dopping into scandi as the greeny ridge rebuilds between the split vortices mid month - now i'm being greedy :lol:

incidentally, NOAA cpc predict a neg AO to mid month in any case. cant see a way out of the cold at present.

Yes early days on this but the signals are good. Built my first igloo today.

[jethro]

Thought some of you may find this paper interesting:

http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/10S1_LGray_SolarInfluencesCLimate.pdf

It discusses in some depth the impact that a quieter Sun has upon Stratospheric Ozone, the QBO, AO, NAO etc.

Warning.....it's a make a coffee first, kind of read.

[pottyprof]

Warning.....it's a make a coffee first, kind of read.

Make that a flask of coffee...

[beng]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

We've warmed up a little at the 30mb level now - and warmed further right at the top of the polar stratosphere. A fullscale warming now (given the likely impact might be Jan) would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons given recent model output and the cold we've already experienced.

QBO came in at just over 12 from Nov - let's hope it doesn't go much higher.

Edited December 4, 2010 by beng

[TEITS]

Thought some of you may find this paper interesting:

http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/10S1_LGray_SolarInfluencesCLimate.pdf

It discusses in some depth the impact that a quieter Sun has upon Stratospheric Ozone, the QBO, AO, NAO etc.

Warning.....it's a make a coffee first, kind of read.

I shall have a read of that later when I have more time.

Some of you who may of read my posts on the model discussion thread may remember me referring to something unknown causing the last cold spell and the current model output. The more I read into this the more im convinced the lack of sunspot activity and increased volcanic activity is the cause here. Now later on im going to look into the effect volcanic eruptions has on the stratosphere. As you know the little ice age was caused by low solar activity and increased volcanic activity.

Could this eruption be a factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klyuchevskaya_Sopka#2007_Eruption

Obviously with volcanic eruptions you would get a lag effect from this which would take a few years to impact our climate.

[chionomaniac]

The more that I learn about the stratosphere the more that I realise that it is not as straightforward as I initially thought. The complex nature of the interactions between the troposphere and the stratosphere are all important but I feel after last winter and the beginning to this that there is a large missing piece to the jigsaw. I think that it is more down to the solar output than anything else but the exact nature of how this exerts its influence is the next area where the breakthrough lies. The cold spells we have experienced have been due to a disturbed polar vortex extending right up into the stratosphere. Last year it was clear that the record autumnal stratospheric warmth drove the winter negative NAO and subsequent cold.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif

But what about this year? The stratosphere was warmer at the start of November and then has cooled down considerably. Is the disruption that we have seen this year due to that early warming? And if so surely we are about to see the tropospheric polar vortex gain strength from now on in rather than the blocking picked up from the models?

So what is showing now?

Well the GFS is forecasting another split in the vortex at T+240 at the lower levels of the vortex:

At the same time there is a considerably warming forecast from the 1 hPa level right down to the 30 hPa level now. (note; all the minor warmings seen recently have failed to breaks through this far down.)

This is very promising indeed. The EcCM has also flirted with this idea of warming and vortex split. Even though the 100 hPa levels don't show a split today the pattern is still very encouraging.

So the stratospheric profile lends support to the idea of blocking to the north west initially which reinforces the tropospheric modelling signals seen.

Potentially, if this further warming occurs then further episodes of blocking could occur later on in winter.

c

Edited December 4, 2010 by chionomaniac

[cooling climate]

I have mentioned in the model discussion thread today that I believe this will continue

throughout the winter. I just don't by into the winter will implode come the new year

theory. This winter is destined for the record books although I must admit the propensity

for northern blocking this winter is a little unclear, I also agree solar is having a large

impact (ties in with articles I have read) plus ozone levels contributing to the blocking we

are seeing.

[greybing]

The more that I learn about the stratosphere the more that I realise that it is not as straightforward as I initially thought. The complex nature of the interactions between the troposphere and the stratosphere are all important but I feel after last winter and the beginning to this that there is a large missing piece to the jigsaw. I think that it is more down to the solar output than anything else but the exact nature of how this exerts its influence is the next area where the breakthrough lies. The cold spells we have experienced have been due to a disturbed polar vortex extending right up into the stratosphere. Last year it was clear that the record autumnal stratospheric warmth drove the winter negative NAO and subsequent cold.

http://www.cpc.ncep....re/30mb9065.gif

But what about this year? The stratosphere was warmer at the start of November and then has cooled down considerably. Is the disruption that we have seen this year due to that early warming? And if so surely we are about to see the tropospheric polar vortex gain strength from now on in rather than the blocking picked up from the models?

So what is showing now?

Well the GFS is forecasting another split in the vortex at T+240 at the lower levels of the vortex:

At the same time there is a considerably warming forecast from the 1 hPa level right down to the 30 hPa level now. (note; all the minor warmings seen recently have failed to breaks through this far down.)

This is very promising indeed. The EcCM has also flirted with this idea of warming and vortex split. Even though the 100 hPa levels don't show a split today the pattern is still very encouraging.

So the stratospheric profile lends support to the idea of blocking to the north west initially which reinforces the tropospheric modelling signals seen.

Potentially, if this further warming occurs then further episodes of blocking could occur later on in winter.

c

nice

[damianslaw]

I don't claim to know much about the stratosphere and its effects on temps, only that significant cooling tends to favour milder weather it seems, and significant warming much colder weather. However, reading between the lines it seems other factors can come into play which dispel these observations, most notably the impact of the sun. We are currently in still a very low solar minima period, something which began back in 2007 I believe and reached a peak last winter.

It would appear the solar minima is the most overiding factor in terms of our weather and one which we can't choose to ignore.. many forecasters base their forecasts on solar influence alone, and its continued weak state suggests another very cold winter is on the cards.

[beng]

Warming at the top of the stratosphere appears to have stopped for the moment.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

Further slight warming further down.

I'm curious to see where we go from here and whether we following the 2007 (last la nina path) with a sudden rapid cooling:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2007.gif

[knocker]

Maybe a slight warming at 30mb by next Sunday.

[chionomaniac]

Maybe a slight warming at 30mb by next Sunday.

Slight at the 30 hPa level looks about as much as will propagate down. The warming is greater higher up but isn't enough and doesn't seem to penetrate the cold vortex core. However the vortex is elongated at the 10 hPa level which does seem to set the pattern for down towards the troposphere. Here the upper forcing creates areas where mid latitude blocks can stretch further north and these blocks are likely to be situated in the ocean regions.

We have seen times like this before where the upper vortex looks ripe for a SSW. Certainly the Atlantic blocking already seen has been shown to be an important precursor to an event. However there has only been one recorded SSW during a solar minimum and wQBO and that was 2 years ago. It may take a strong wave breaking event to force another. As soon as these warmings cease we will see the vortex regain its shape and increase in strength very quickly I suspect.

[chionomaniac]

Just to add to this the blocking forecasts are right in line with where I would expect to see them when looking at the lower stratospheric profiling.

c

[geoffw]

is this good or bad news for cold lovers?

[chionomaniac]

is this good or bad news for cold lovers?

Potentially good news Geoff.

And very promising outlook today.

The ECM is showing signs of a tropospherically led vortex split similar to last year - now forecast up to the 10hPa layer.

Hopefully this can lead to another division of the vortex lower down.

The GFS forecast is not suggesting a split but shows a warming of the upper layers of the stratosphere leading to a very distorted vortex. At the 100 hPa level the vortex forecast is such that extreme Greenland blocking is favoured. I haven't seen a forecast like this before.

No wonder the tropospheric models have been showing a Greenland superblock!

c

[geoffw]

so if these forecasts continue their promising signs jan and feb could be very cold a well?

[chionomaniac]

so if these forecasts continue their promising signs jan and feb could be very cold a well?

I would go as far and say up to January now.

[cooling climate]

sorry you mean jan could be cold?

January could be very, very cold from what I can see. There's no

reason to think that this will not continue into the new year and

beyond.Just my pennies worth.