Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[Weather-history]

Warming can clearly be seen on the 30mb graph below and considering

the extended range models NAEFS etc were showing blocking to re- emerge

over Baffin Island and Greenland then it is possible we could very well see the

AO and NAO drop through the floor.

Very, very interesting times ahead.

Time series of 30-hPa Temperature over the North Pole

Only a short spike, it appears.

[karyo]

Only a short spike, it appears.

I can see a major cooling here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2010.gif

Karyo

[chionomaniac]

Only a short spike, it appears.

That is not a forecast Mr D.

The forecast still looks like producing a significant warming, with a Greenland block consistently shown around the starting point.

[Great Plum]

The projected warming is good news for cold and I assume goes against the GFS powering the jet up post 150hrs...

[chionomaniac]

The projected warming is good news for cold and I assume goes against the GFS powering the jet up post 150hrs...

It all depends on where the residual energy of the PV end up and whether the lower vortex splits or not. Any powering up of the Atlantic seen in FI on the GFS runs is extremely suspect imo and is likely to change.

[chionomaniac]

Ho Ho Ho! I have just had a look at the ECM stratospheric T+240 100hPa forecast and found this staring back at me!

The warming at 10 hPa is now more in line with the GFS as well.

Need I say any more other than I know which way to jump now.

Second week in Jan is my guess for another severe Arctic outbreak.

edit in fact it could be a touch sooner than that.

Well we are another week down the line and I would stick with theses thoughts. It appears that the models are increasingly picking up on these signals and the timings of the next Arctic blast.

Looking at the stratospheric forecasts I can only see an increase in the warming episode leading to a very weak vortex.

I feel that a displacement SSW could be the end result.

The warming is propagating nicely to the 30 hPa level.

The only question arising is how that this may affect the troposphere. The ECM has been keen on Greenland height rises all the way through with them edging closer now to the 7 day forecast.

The GFS goes with this initially:

but then drags a section of shortwave vortex across into the Atlantic.

This needs monitoring as it is the reason why the Atlantic seems to awaken in FI. Closer examination suggests that if this is correct it will only be temporary and I would suggest that the worst we would probably see is a close undercut to the block.

c

[Alan Robinson]

First let me say well done to everyone contributing to this fascinating topic. I have learned quite a bit reading your ideas. Perhaps I can entice you to enlighten me further.

I am sure it is covered somewhere in the thread, but as I can't find it, might I ask where all the basic data you use comes from. I do not mean can I have a link please, rather, how is the data actually collected, because it seems to me no mean feat.

For example, do they use balloons, and if so, how many and how frequently? Or perhaps there are specialised aircraft that fly around from time-to-time? If so, how do they navigate, because I believe civilian GPS becomes increasingly unreliable at very high latitudes. Perhaps they use LORAN or some other parabolic system? Radar perhaps? It would also be interesting to learn how an aircraft's altitude is known in the polar stratosphere.

Are satellites involved? I am not trained in these matters, but I cannot see how stratospheric pressures and temperatures at different altitudes can be ascertained from space. If satellites are involved, then in what way?

I'd be much obliged if someone can describe these matters, as it will help me wholly accept what is seemingly a very important atmospheric phenomenon.

Keep up the good work, and happy New Year

Edited December 31, 2010 by Alan Robinson

[chionomaniac]

I am away and unable to complete full updates until after New Year, however things still look promising.

Alan I am unable to provide you with links until after I get back to all my links on my regular pc.

The warming is still on track and is being led by a massive wave number 1 event.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

The warming still has some way to go before the vortex will be fully affected. The mean zonal wind speed today at the 10 hPa level is around 42m/s and this is forecast to reduce in 10 days time to 13m/s. The warming at this level is not fully completed at that time and so it is not unreasonable to expect the mean zonal vortex speed to reduce further. My thoughts are that we will reach SSW status around the 15th of Jan with a displacement of the vortex.

So I da not think that we are close to seeing the full effects of the warming for some time yet. We are already seeing a displacement forecast for the lower level of the stratosphere which is looking very favourable from the ECM giving a strong Greenland ridge in around 10 days time. It is after this time that holds most interest for me. I suspect that there will be a period (as yet unmodelled) with strong heights across the North Pole. Who knows how these may affect us, but I would be extremely surprised not to see -10C 850 hPa air cross the country at some stage through the coming weeks.

c

[cooling climate]

I am away and unable to complete full updates until after New Year, however things still look promising.

Alan I am unable to provide you with links until after I get back to all my links on my regular pc.

The warming is still on track and is being led by a massive wave number 1 event.

http://wekuw.met.fu-...var=ha1&lng=eng

The warming still has some way to go before the vortex will be fully affected. The mean zonal wind speed today at the 10 hPa level is around 42m/s and this is forecast to reduce in 10 days time to 13m/s. The warming at this level is not fully completed at that time and so it is not unreasonable to expect the mean zonal vortex speed to reduce further. My thoughts are that we will reach SSW status around the 15th of Jan with a displacement of the vortex.

So I da not think that we are close to seeing the full effects of the warming for some time yet. We are already seeing a displacement forecast for the lower level of the stratosphere which is looking very favourable from the ECM giving a strong Greenland ridge in around 10 days time. It is after this time that holds most interest for me. I suspect that there will be a period (as yet unmodelled) with strong heights across the North Pole. Who knows how these may affect us, but I would be extremely surprised not to see -10C 850 hPa air cross the country at some stage through the coming weeks.

c

Very much agree CH we could see the AO tank to level similar to last winter or lower with

perhaps some incredible synoptics on offer if we are lucky. Although after a truly memorable

end of November and December (synoptic and weather wise) it really would be the icing on

the cake to see the type of synoptics that deliver -15c uppers across the country.

[knocker]

First let me say well done to everyone contributing to this fascinating topic. I have learned quite a bit reading your ideas. Perhaps I can entice you to enlighten me further.

I am sure it is covered somewhere in the thread, but as I can't find it, might I ask where all the basic data you use comes from. I do not mean can I have a link please, rather, how is the data actually collected, because it seems to me no mean feat.

For example, do they use balloons, and if so, how many and how frequently? Or perhaps there are specialised aircraft that fly around from time-to-time? If so, how do they navigate, because I believe civilian GPS becomes increasingly unreliable at very high latitudes. Perhaps they use LORAN or some other parabolic system? Radar perhaps? It would also be interesting to learn how an aircraft's altitude is known in the polar stratosphere.

Are satellites involved? I am not trained in these matters, but I cannot see how stratospheric pressures and temperatures at different altitudes can be ascertained from space. If satellites are involved, then in what way?

I'd be much obliged if someone can describe these matters, as it will help me wholly accept what is seemingly a very important atmospheric phenomenon.

Keep up the good work, and happy New Year

I'll attempt an answer to this that chiono can correct on return.

There is no radiosonde network covering the Arctic although radiosondes are flown from northern Canada and Norway and probably from Siberia although I'm guessing about that. I don't know whether they fly high altitude balloons which would probably reach between 3-2mb. But in any case it would be a very sparse cover.

That leaves us with satellites.and microwave emissions. Whether this covers the very top of the stratosphere I'm not sure but I imagine the same principle would be involved

Satellite measurements of the Earth’s microwave emissions are a crucial element in the development of an accurate system for long-term monitoring of atmospheric temperature. Satellites provide global coverage at much higher densities than attainable with in situ observations. In situ observations also suffer from non-uniform temporal coverage and undocumented changes in the radiosonde instrumentation used that can lead to local biases and increased uncertainty. The Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) operating on NOAA polar-orbiting platforms have been the principal sources of satellite temperature profiles for the past two decades. The MSUs are cross-track scanners with measurements of microwave radiance in four channels ranging from 50.3 to 57.95 GHz on the lower shoulder of the Oxygen absorption band. These four channels measure the atmospheric temperature in four thick layers spanning the surface through the stratosphere.

http://www.remss.com...escription.html

This may be of historical interest.

ABSTRACT

An historical archive of over 25 000 radiosonde observations from the former Soviet “North Pole†series of drifting

ice stations has been compiled and made available to interested researchers. This archive is the only long-term set of

meteorological sounding data over the Arctic Ocean. The digital archive is a result of the multiyear, collaborative efforts

of a group of United States and Russian scientists and keypunch operators working under the auspices of Working Group

VIII, an area of study within the United States–Russian Federation Agreement for Protection of the Environment and

Natural Resources. The archive contains soundings from 21 drifting stations over the period 1954–90 and is being distributed

by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado

http://journals.amet...FS%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Regarding the Antarctic they certainly fly radiosondes and ozonesondes down there but again satellites will play the major role. The ozonesondes are very usefull as they supply data at different levels although the sampling isn't perfect by any means. again the network is very sparse. If they are using Vaisala sondes then it could be either GPS or Loran-C but I suspect the former.

Edited December 31, 2010 by weather ship

[knocker]

On reflection I think my comments regarding the radiosonde network may have been slightly misleading. This is the coverage around the Arctic Ocean at midday. The plots are for 100mb.

[Mark Bayley]

Would be i right in thinking the following chart shows the PV over Northern Russia and height rises over Greenland while the T240 charts shows roughly the same? This making the GFS's idea of a PV setting up shop over Greenland unlikely? The charts, if I'm right would fit in line with where the ECM locates the PV at T240.

T144

T240

Edited December 31, 2010 by Mark Bayley

[knocker]

Would be i right in thinking the following chart shows the PV over Northern Russia and height rises over Greenland while the T240 charts shows roughly the same?

T144

T240

Whatever you do don't take my word on this but doesn't the T144 show a ridge over Greenland that has gone by T240 where the heights are more under the influence of the PV?

[bluearmy]

Would be i right in thinking the following chart shows the PV over Northern Russia and height rises over Greenland while the T240 charts shows roughly the same? This making the GFS's idea of a PV setting up shop over Greenland unlikely? The charts, if I'm right would fit in line with where the ECM locates the PV at T240.

T144

T240

whilst ecm looks ok for trop pattern if replicating the strat 100hpa, GFS is rather different as it sticks a chunk of the p/v in se canada. that tends to act as a caterpault to send the jet across the atlantic towards us, raising heights over europe somewhat. i think the obvious difference in the gfs and ecm output post T192 at the moment is down to this difference in where to stick the p/v energy. until the two models begin to show the same general NH pattern with the p/v placement, we shant see trop model pattern agreement.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f240.gif

[Alan Robinson]

I'll attempt an answer to this that chiono can correct on return.

I say Weather Ship, that is a most impressive reply, and I am grateful. If Cmaniac can correct you, then I really have my work cut out in sorting chaff from grain.

Nonetheless, in the interest of comprehension, I fail to see how satellites can acurately establish temperatures and pressures at particular altitudes in the stratosphere. I am sure it can be done, but just how and which satellites are concerned is far beyond me. You don't suppose that satellite data is sent down to Earth, where people do the analysis do you?

Otherwise, that is an impressive number of radiosondes you described. Could you please advise, or provide a link that explains the performance of such instruments?

Please do not misunderstand me, I am not a troll, I simply want convincing evidence that we are not dealing with rubbish in and rubbish out, or inductive reasoning, which for very good reasons cannot be used for predicting the future. It is only 15 months since I started monitoring the North Atlantic Oscillation because of my kitchen garden, and based on historical (not historic!) data, forecast that we would have maritime weather in NW Europe between, say, August 2010 and February 2011. How wrong could I have been!

By the way Weather Ship, I am a retired shipbuilder and naval architect, and have always taken great interest in eye witness reports from seafarers. Before I took higher education, I actually worked on the building of one of Denmark's icebreakers, Thorbjørn, and I can tell you it was a solid "piece of kit". I also helped design and build the four Danish patrol ships IS86, and went on sea trials in Disko Bay, where we broke 0.5m thick ice doing 5 knots. I shall not describe the paintwork afterwards.

Thanks for the response, and looking forward to interesting exchanges, happy New Year

Alan Robinson

Edited December 31, 2010 by Alan Robinson

[chionomaniac]

I may be away but I can say that weather ship has given you far more information than I can Alan. How interesting about your job. I look forward to hearing more.

[len]

Re: Sunspots, Stratosphere & Southerly Jet

I saw this article about a possible link between these, perhaps explaining the sudden resurrection of a Southerly Jet of recent years.

http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/15/lower-sunspot-activity-anticipates-chillier-winters-for-northern-europe

Quote (Referring to Sunspots & UV solar output)

“Lockwood says that the pattern is related to the effect of ultraviolet light on Earth's stratosphere, located about 20–50 kilometers above the surface. Ultraviolet light from the Sun is absorbed by ozone in the stratosphere, protecting the planet's surface but heating the stratosphere in the process. The effect is largest in the tropics, where sunlight is strongest, and the temperature gradients set up a global pattern of upper-atmosphere winds, including the Northern and Southern Hemisphere jet streams.

“Relatively simple models have demonstrated that heating the equatorial stratosphere can push the jet streams apart just a little bit,†says Lockwood. Similarly, cooling the stratosphere — as occurs during periods of low solar activity — allows the jet streams to shift towards the Equator. This, he says, seems to have a profound effect on European weather by causing the northern jet stream to block warm maritime air from reaching the continent from the Atlantic Ocean. This, in turn, opens the door to cold, northeasterly winds from Russia and the Arctic.â€

I would appreciate any comment from GP, BFTP & Chionomaniac......

Eg GP, Are we seeing Stratospheric cooling over the Tropics. I seem to remember you saying this?

Len

[Alan Robinson]

I would appreciate any comment from GP, BFTP & Chionomaniac......

In the meantime , if I may, for i am certainly no expert on this matter, the second law of thermodynamics suggests to me that it is equatorial conditions that effect the poles. I am gratified that Lockwood seems to have something of the same opinion. Similarly, I suspect solar irradiation affects the QBO, which in turn effects the trade winds, and consequently the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift etc. I look forward to reading comments from those with more insight than I.

[knocker]

I say Weather Ship, that is a most impressive reply, and I am grateful. If Cmaniac can correct you, then I really have my work cut out in sorting chaff from grain.

Nonetheless, in the interest of comprehension, I fail to see how satellites can acurately establish temperatures and pressures at particular altitudes in the stratosphere. I am sure it can be done, but just how and which satellites are concerned is far beyond me. You don't suppose that satellite data is sent down to Earth, where people do the analysis do you?

Otherwise, that is an impressive number of radiosondes you described. Could you please advise, or provide a link that explains the performance of such instruments?

Please do not misunderstand me, I am not a troll, I simply want convincing evidence that we are not dealing with rubbish in and rubbish out, or inductive reasoning, which for very good reasons cannot be used for predicting the future. It is only 15 months since I started monitoring the North Atlantic Oscillation because of my kitchen garden, and based on historical (not historic!) data, forecast that we would have maritime weather in NW Europe between, say, August 2010 and February 2011. How wrong could I have been!

By the way Weather Ship, I am a retired shipbuilder and naval architect, and have always taken great interest in eye witness reports from seafarers. Before I took higher education, I actually worked on the building of one of Denmark's icebreakers, Thorbjørn, and I can tell you it was a solid "piece of kit". I also helped design and build the four Danish patrol ships IS86, and went on sea trials in Disko Bay, where we broke 0.5m thick ice doing 5 knots. I shall not describe the paintwork afterwards.

Thanks for the response, and looking forward to interesting exchanges, happy New Year

Alan Robinson

I have to admit Alan that I’m no expert on satellite derived information. This may help; it’s from a paper on meteorological satellites. Others in the forum may well have more detailed knowledge.

Absorption, emission, or reflection of an EM radiation from an object is a function of the wavelength of EM radiation, and the temperature of the object. Thus, the spectral information can provide details of chemical composition, and/or the temperature of the object. Meteorological satellite sensors use this information for sounding applications, where the vertical structure of temperature, humidity, and in some cases, the atmospheric gases is retrieved. An example of this sensor is High Resolution IR Sounder (HIRS), and Advance Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) onboard NOAA series of satellites. Future satellites will carry more advanced sensors like imaging spectrometers. Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) is a fine example of this new-generation sensor. GIFTS, when operational, is expected to provide the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and winds at several atmospheric layers in the vertical.

http://www.wamis.org...gm8/Paper-4.pdf

Regarding radiosondes in the days of yon different countries used different sondes and the lack of uniformity has caused problems. Not all of the temperature, pressure and humidity sensors were of the same quality and this caused a major headache in assessing archive data. In fact I think I’m right in saying there have been a couple of major reappraisals of the data because of its importance in the global warming debate.

The UKMO spent 14 years around the late 60s and 70s developing the ‘super’ sonde most of the time spent in attempting to upgrade the humidity sensor. They eventually gave up and stuck with goldbeaters skin which is the outer membrane of a calf’s intestine! Variations in atmospheric humidity cause the skin to contract or expand. Only problem it had a very bad lag. Anyway the sonde was large, difficult to calibrate and commercially not viable. Enter the Finnish company Vaisala.

As far as I’m aware they have virtually cornered the international market with their sondes and their automatic ground station that can be operated remotely. Their products are very good. I won’t witter on but you can find a description of their products here.

http://www.vaisala.c...es/default.aspx

Edited January 1, 2011 by weather ship

[Glacier Point]

This is where La Nina turns into the destroying angel.

Although we have some warming programmed at the upper layers, zonal winds across 30hPa have yet to respond and drop below 0 m/s which officially constitutes a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This requires daily monitoring to see if there is any propoagation downward of temperatures and crucially easterly zonal winds through the lower stratosphere and across the tropopause. It should be noted that we have a downwelling westerly QBO wave in the lower stratosphere which may result in vertical wind shear to any warming wave above it.

Without the impacts of any upper warming, I've considered the downwelling wave to destroy or significantly weaken the blocking signal to the north during the period late December through mid January as it penetrates the upper and mid troposphere. Is the modelling of heights to the north beginning to reflect this I wonder ?

GFS and ECM modelling of the stratospheric heights suggests an upper ridge developing over Alaska and northern Pacific as well as distinct vortex being located towards Svalbard and Greenland. Again, current NWP is really driving this theme home with a tropospheric ridge on the opposite side of the Arctic and lowering of heights to our north.

Interestingly and perhaps tellingly, 10hPa heights for low angular momentum (La Nina) winters are a good match, perhaps shifted slightly further north this year. Given that low angular momentum conditions have been in place for at least 6 months, a realistic expectation that the disruption of the meridinal circulation has impacted the upper atmosphere.

The time lags for stratospheric events are extremely long. However, composites for these years with this upper stratospheric profile suggest +ve height anomalies over the UK and north Atlantic and low heights over the pole. This should reinforce the projected pattern in the extended range in the troposphere which is likely to represent a stark contrast with December's pressure pattern over the northern latitudes.

Any warming of the stratosphere may actually reinforce this pressure anomaly pattern.

Re: Sunspots, Stratosphere & Southerly Jet

Eg GP, Are we seeing Stratospheric cooling over the Tropics. I seem to remember you saying this?

Len

Observationally, this would fit Len as the last few years have seen a persistently cool tropical stratosphere, even this year where the west QBO should have supported a warmer stratosphere over the equator at the 10hPa and 30hPa layers.

[Alan Robinson]

I have to admit Alan that I’m no expert on satellite derived information. This may help; it’s from a paper on meteorological satellites. Others in the forum may well have more detailed knowledge.

Absorption, emission, or reflection of an EM radiation from an object is a function of the wavelength of EM radiation, and the temperature of the object. Thus, the spectral information can provide details of chemical composition, and/or the temperature of the object. Meteorological satellite sensors use this information for sounding applications, where the vertical structure of temperature, humidity, and in some cases, the atmospheric gases is retrieved. An example of this sensor is High Resolution IR Sounder (HIRS), and Advance Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) onboard NOAA series of satellites. Future satellites will carry more advanced sensors like imaging spectrometers. Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) is a fine example of this new-generation sensor. GIFTS, when operational, is expected to provide the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and winds at several atmospheric layers in the vertical.

http://www.wamis.org...gm8/Paper-4.pdf

Regarding radiosondes in the days of yon different countries used different sondes and the lack of uniformity has caused problems. Not all of the temperature, pressure and humidity sensors were of the same quality and this caused a major headache in assessing archive data. In fact I think I’m right in saying there have been a couple of major reappraisals of the data because of its importance in the global warming debate.

The UKMO spent 14 years around the late 60s and 70s developing the ‘super’ sonde most of the time spent in attempting to upgrade the humidity sensor. They eventually gave up and stuck with goldbeaters skin which is the outer membrane of a calf’s intestine! Variations in atmospheric humidity cause the skin to contract or expand. Only problem it had a very bad lag. Anyway the sonde was large, difficult to calibrate and commercially not viable. Enter the Finnish company Vaisala.

As far as I’m aware they have virtually cornered the international market with their sondes and their automatic ground station that can be operated remotely. Their products are very good. I won’t witter on but you can find a description of their products here.

http://www.vaisala.c...es/default.aspx

Much obliged Weather Ship.

[Weather-history]

I would be interested in hearing from the pundits taking into account of the state of the stratosphere over the last few weeks, La Nina etc, are you surprised that we had one of the coldest Decembers on record?

[cooling climate]

The -AO and NAO dominated the pattern, over riding the enso signals.

In fact this is what I was talking about in the fall I think it was when I

argued the point that the AO and NAO can drive the weather regardless of

other variables or teleconnects.

Edited January 2, 2011 by cooling climate

[Weather-history]

The -AO and NAO dominated the pattern, over riding the enso signals.

In fact this is what I was talking about in the fall I think it was when I

argued the point that the AO and NAO can drive the weather regardless of

other variables or teleconnects.

AO and NAO are just indices in the measurement of the intensity of a pressure pattern. Something has caused the blocking and the AO and NAO are just indices that measure how intense this is, they do not tell you what caused it, just the result of it.

Edited January 2, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Great Plum]

CC, I see that the AO and NAO are forecast to go strongly negative again later on this month... If this comes to pass, can you see them overiding the teleconnections again?