South West England & Channel Islands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 16

[Guest mycroft]

can't see for the life of me why the concern over river exe level in exeter city centre,no where near any flooding going to happen,don't think any high tides are due.local bbc had it on the tv tonight just lapping on the quay side?? seen much much worse.must be low on stories as per norm

Edited January 13, 2011 by mycroft

[Rich_Clements]

Sick of the rain, come back frosts all is forgiven.

[Andy Bown]

With HIGH pressure looking like taking control into next week will people be happy or not?

Personally it would be very welcome because my outdoor work has taken a hit with the snow/ice before Christmas and now over a week

of work days affected by rain (with a fine weekend in between lol) !

I can sense that some members would rather an immediate return of the deep freezing cold/snow but, let's be honest, how likely would

that be to happen!?

A good way back to cold weather is for HIGH pressure bringing, hopefully, sunny days and frosty nights. Maybe a run of days with 6c max

and -2c min and that would begin to redress the mildness of this week.

I expect many will say that the HIGH would end with the Atlantic returning so therefore 'winter time has been wasted', but how many winters

in history have had deep cold throughout!?

We had a record breaking cold December, almost the coldest ever recorded, and that for me will make winter 2010-2011 extremely memorable even

if further deep cold doesn't return.

[Wynn D Woo]

With HIGH pressure looking like taking control into next week will people be happy or not?

Personally it would be very welcome because my outdoor work has taken a hit with the snow/ice before Christmas and now over a week

of work days affected by rain (with a fine weekend in between lol) !

I can sense that some members would rather an immediate return of the deep freezing cold/snow but, let's be honest, how likely would

that be to happen!?

A good way back to cold weather is for HIGH pressure bringing, hopefully, sunny days and frosty nights. Maybe a run of days with 6c max

and -2c min and that would begin to redress the mildness of this week.

I expect many will say that the HIGH would end with the Atlantic returning so therefore 'winter time has been wasted', but how many winters

in history have had deep cold throughout!?

We had a record breaking cold December, almost the coldest ever recorded, and that for me will make winter 2010-2011 extremely memorable even

if further deep cold doesn't return.

I would be happy for a high pressure to move in just so long as its a clear one and not a dirty high. Im really fed up of the endless grey and would appreciate some sunshine whilst Im out and about and people might be a bit more cheerful too!

[fromey]

evening all, what a boring few days, rain rain and more rain!

anyway something is afoot, ecm amd gfs agreeing with some form of cold, it could be gone from the next lot of runs but its a start.

lets wait and see what happens

fromey

[Frosty_wsm]

Well well, what a wicked ecm we have tonight, not to mention a number of the 12z's are good from the other models! If the ecm even comes close to being accurate then that really will confirm that it's stupid to right off january just because it `looks` bad in the models, they can change on a dime and things are certainly looking alot better this evening if cold and snow is what your after.

[dogs32]

Well well, what a wicked ecm we have tonight, not to mention a number of the 12z's are good from the other models! If the ecm even comes close to being accurate then that really will confirm that it's stupid to right off january just because it `looks` bad in the models, they can change on a dime and things are certainly looking alot better this evening if cold and snow is what your after.

Hi Smartie,

So things turning around then,heading back to a snow event maybe?

Sorry haven't been studying any cold weather of late.

[glosteroldboy]

Well well, what a wicked ecm we have tonight, not to mention a number of the 12z's are good from the other models! If the ecm even comes close to being accurate then that really will confirm that it's stupid to right off january just because it `looks` bad in the models, they can change on a dime and things are certainly looking alot better this evening if cold and snow is what your after.

You said it, why start getting excited by some cold on one model run in FI? Might disappear over the weekend! Lets wait until it's a bit closer by and with agreement from all the main models before getting excited. Apparently the latest GFS is having none of it, a long way to go before we can start cracking open the champers.

On a cold related note, parts of Newfoundland in Canada had a 20-40cm dumping yesterday, their first real snow of the winter after a remarkably mild couple of months. Apparently alot of schools there still managed to open today!!

Edited January 14, 2011 by glosteroldboy

[snowking]

Just thought I would re-post this here, posted over on another forum, to try and raise some spirits for anyone reading the model thread and some of its mis-guided sentiments

Well as expected from earlier signals we now move into a period of much cooler but drier weather for the remainder of the month I would suggest

One thing that does give me a laugh is people complaining on forums elsewhere about 'boring' weather.

A couple of things to point out here.

First of all i'm sure drier will be a big relief to those in the west of the UK getting a little concerned about the height of the water table currently - I wonder if people in Aus, Sri Lanka or Brazil would be complaining about 'boring weather'. We have been very lucky.

Secondly, people don't quite seem to realise the potential for an almighty easterly given any minimal height rises from - take your pick - canada through greenland, into svalbard and siberia. We would have to be desperately unlucky to see a sustained period of intense vortex activity across ALL of these regions - any slight relent in the vortex and our UK high pressure will try (as nature dictates, everything tries to balance out - if an area has been under low pressure for some time, a high pressure area will move towards an area of low pressure) to retrogress. ANY northern movement of the UK high will result in cold uppers and some substantial convection, particularly but not exclusively across eastern areas (lets bear in mind that such setups are conducive of undercutting low pressure systems from the channel). Or of course a separate pressure rise across siberia could see the polar vortex squeezed down the north sea once again, giving us a potent northerly.

And finally, we are entering another period of extreme model uncertainty, with a high amplitude MJO phase 7 event soon to kick off - the global circulation is as one - any uncertainty anywhere around that circulation, including something such as a convective event in the Indian ocean, will affect the longwave pattern downstream (i.e. the overall pressure setup over the UK). We know HP will form - there is cross model agreement on that - but the tendency for modelling to mis-calculate the strength and positioning of northern blocking should be remembered in situations like this.

It will be very interesting to see if the out-of-sorts ECMWF sticks to its guns tonight from its previous 2 runs, keeping HP further north than the rest of the general consensus. If it does, it could be a long needed victory for the ECMWF after a period of egg-on-face.

Personally I will just be glad to get rid of this horrible atlantic muck (for me thats an autumnal period, not welcome in winter) and back to some cool days and frosty nights. With the persistence of this HP we could even be fortunate enough to see the freezing fog we had here in the westcountry back in late november which made Cheltenham look even more stunning than ever, with some thick rime frost.

How anyone can call this boring is beyond me.

Of course the only downside to this is that it takes us towards an inevitable near-drought situation come summer

Kris

SK

[khodds]

Thanks SK, interesting times ahead hopefully! For me, just an hour or two of sunshine will do...

Sat here watching 'the perfect storm' - I love this film

And the book, of course!

Edited January 15, 2011 by khodds

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Some drier weather would be lovely... another day of heavy rain and high winds here today.

Tomorrow looks better. Believe that when I see it, yesterday was supposed to be dry... turned out to be that lovely drizzle. On the plus side, yes, its not as bad as Qld.

[caz100]

WELL HERE IT HAS RAINED MOST DAYS....

WONDER IF WE WILL SEE ANY OTHER KIND OF WEATHER..

[legritter]

hi ,sat up in my damp summer house today .watched the birds feeding in the heavy rain .i expect they are making up for the leaner times of the past. our local perigrin was facing off with the ravens .just had a look at the charts out to 240 hrs there are possibilities , lets hope something comes for all of us .if anyone interested there are some good web cams over in yellow knife and lake winnipeg , you may occasionaly catch the local wildlife ,regards legritter ,winscombe.

[dogs32]

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Jan 2011 to Monday 14 Feb 2011:

This period looks to start mainly dry and settled across the UK, with cloudier, milder conditions in the north and colder, drier conditions in the south. Overnight frosts and fog patches could continue for many parts of England and Wales. Meanwhile, spells of rain or drizzle are more likely further north across Scotland and Northern Ireland, but hill-snow is also possible here.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 16 Jan 2011

Starting to think it could be the end of the Winter snow

Oh well Spring Thunderstorms to look forward to

Edited January 16, 2011 by dogs32

[textmum]

As an avid snow watcher, I have now become an avid watcher for dry weather instead!! Is there any hope we will get a dry bright spell soon?!

[BARRY]

Loads of winter to come, Don't get to down hearted when Mrs B hands and feet start to crack cold weather will be on it's way, Who needs models will keep you informed of developments, LOL

[ZONE 51]

FLASH RAIN WARNINGS OUT!!!

ALERT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING

check that radar wider than expected i think?

Met Office have issued warnings

[slinky1989]

From Ian fergasson on twitter:

Hectic start in studio at 0415am. This morning's heavy rain surprised the forecast models, so I had online video forecast updated by 0530!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Certainly was wet!

And now, to top it off, NW has my location down for a 4% chance of snow!

:lol:

[Frosty_wsm]

Dunno about you lot but I'm looking forward to a drier spell of weather, hopefully this high wont be a dirty high so maybe some fog & frost thrown in as well.

[kevvo]

I'm looking forward to the High pressure moving in tomorrow. Cool & settled for a few days. Far better than the Atlantic stream of rain & cloud of recent days.

Weather in Weymouth is quite interesting at the moment though. Thunderstorm cracking & flashing its' way through the darkness. Steady rain falling.

Flash alert..........make that HEAVY rain, in the last 2 minutes.

Edited January 17, 2011 by kevvo

[slb97]

Hi, great to hear reports of a thunderstorm especially in January! I'm watching the radar and it does look lively - hope something makes its way over here too!

[Just Below Zero]

Thunderstorm overhead in Dorchester right now. First decent claps for months.

I dont think any one fore cast this.

You never know what you are going to get next in this game

[kevvo]

If only it was thundersnow! :wacko:

[Valhalla]

BBC 5 day forecast has light snow for Sat in Bristol?