Yorkshire, Lincs And The Pennines - Cold Spell Discussion 13

[Craigers]

I hope so. Be good to drive to work in the snow

[Harve]

Just 0.8C here... significantly colder than forecast?

[cheese]

Temperatures have not really been higher than 3c over the past few days, but night time temperatures have been above freezing, mostly.

[Cheese Rice]

High of 2.2c here, currently 1.6c.

Tomorrow doesn't look to be amounting to much with the front arriving here been light and patchy, with sleet or drizzle likely due to lack of intensity. Eastern areas will escape the front with any precipitation dying out over central areas.

[cheese]

I think March will prove interesting. Nothing extraordinary, but snow seems likely for northern and eastern areas especially with frosty nights. Winter isn't over yet.

[Lewis]

High of 2.2c here, currently 1.6c.

Tomorrow doesn't look to be amounting to much with the front arriving here been light and patchy, with sleet or drizzle likely due to lack of intensity. Eastern areas will escape the front with any precipitation dying out over central areas.

Before the front.

Precipitation about ahead around East and N Yorkshire and parts of Lincolnshire.

Later on into tomorrow as the front pushes across mainly light yes, but it reaches the North Sea.

0c isotherm hovering around 250-300 (400m tops) for Yorkshire, throughout until the band pushes through. Dew points around 0C, it's light precipitation yes, but as the 0c isotherm is lower than the event that affected Yorkshire yesterday, it makes it on par with conditions for the precipitation.

Upper 850's.

Around -3 throughout for East Yorkshire.

Will it snow? They'll be some snow, but as to accumulations, that all depends on precipitation. If conditions are favorable at the time, even if the precipitation is light, it still should fall as snow, especially for areas with slight elevation.

Chance of a wintry mix or rain for lowland areas. (or wet snow).

Lewis

Edited February 20, 2011 by Lewis

[Lewis]

18z continues the same theme,

Showers ahead of the main front, and falling almost anywhere, mainly sleet/wet snow to low levels in the East.

Rain to the west of the region.

Edited February 20, 2011 by Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Yep.

NAE didn't make much of the PPN with it dying out over central areas, same with the BBC.

Latest NAE makes more of a deal of the front while GFS makes nothing of it now.

Even still it doesn't make it to east Yorkshire before dying out.

Precipitation accumulation

1MM at the most for east Yorkshire, 5MM for this area so a few cm's is now looking possible.

Edited February 20, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Lewis]

Yep.

NAE didn't make much of the PPN with it dying out over central areas, same with the BBC.

Latest NAE makes more of a deal of the front while GFS makes nothing of it now.

Even still it doesn't make it to east Yorkshire before dying out.

Precipitation accumulation

1MM at the most for east Yorkshire, 5MM for this area so a few cm's is now looking possible.

It'll get here, but it won't be heavy, i'm talking about precipitation (convection) kicking off ahead of the main front and before the main front pushes in for east yorkshire.

p.s - rain for Leeds, thats a deffo!

Look at how mild it comes, seriously, as much as I want to see more snow in yorkshire, it will be rain for leeds. fact

[Cheese Rice]

It'll get here, but it won't be heavy, i'm talking about precipitation (convection) kicking off ahead of the main front and before the main front pushes in for east yorkshire.

p.s - rain for Leeds, thats a deffo!

Look at how mild it comes, seriously, as much as I want to see more snow in yorkshire, it will be rain for leeds. fact

Same as it was a definite for rain yesterday? Yet there was lying snow at sea level in Leeds center.

The charts are fine for snowfall

Uppers -4.c

Dews 1.c

Edited February 20, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[cheese]

It's even 1.5C at Osmondthorpe, 56 meters asl. So maybe sleet or wet snow. If it's going to rain in Leeds then it'll rain everywhere else too, especially in Castleford which is even lower in elevation than Leeds city centre..

[Cheese Rice]

It's even 1.5C at Osmondthorpe, 56 meters asl. So maybe sleet or wet snow. If it's going to rain in Leeds then it'll rain everywhere else too, especially in Castleford which is even lower in elevation than Leeds city centre..

Yep thats the station I use (and LBA), I knock of 1.c for the rise of 150M. And have found the station to be really accurate compared to the rest of the iffy ones in West Yorkshire and wunderground in general.

Edited February 20, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Lewis]

Same as it was a definite for rain yesterday? Yet there was lying snow at sea level in Leeds center.

The charts are fine for snowfall

Uppers -4.c

Dews 1.c

I didn't say it would be definite rain! Don't start all of this again I cannot be assed!

2 days ago posted about Saturdays snow!

"Elevation will be key tonight for all areas, I think you should be perfectly fine *this was aimed at you, did you do well? yes you got 7cm of snow".

Low lying areas of Leeds didn't do as good, hit and miss for some areas, as my friend who lives in Leeds a big rugby supporter told me that it was slushy as anything and didn't stick around long.

It's a weird one really, as the NMM goes for snow for Lowland NE england, and in reality there is no major difference in the conditions outputted by the NMM/GFS for our areas.

With the colder air to the East you would have thought it was the East of the region that would stand the greatest chance for snow, the 0C isotherm has upgraded on the latest GFS/NMM. I think the problem here lies with the strength of the wind and modification from the North Sea, if it was lighter winds, we would get away with it.

I'm all for surprises though, you never know! Let's see what happens.

Cheesierice - I have not changed my mind entirely, but with a slight upgrade on the NMM, and the way the temps are responding, it is looking slightly better.

It's all about how the temps and dews respond when you draw in a SW wind. (and of course when the front hits). "

Back onto tonight/tomorrow.....

Cheeserice,

Look at the uppers at the time of the precipitation from the NMM, along with the 0c isotherm, dews etc, not before the precipitation, during and after!

Had the precipitation track/timing spot on over the past few days.

Edited February 21, 2011 by Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

I didn't say it would be definite rain! Don't start all of this again I cannot be assed!

2 days ago posted about Saturdays snow!

You changed it at the last minute, when most were probably in bed!

I just cannot see it happening.

Either I'm spot on the money, or forecasting to normal conditions and modelsare thrown out the window, I can't see where BBC are getting their ideas from,the only closest thing I can think of is that due to the conditions over thepast day or two, the cold is locked under a boundary of low cloud other thepast 2 days, cloud is classed as an insulator, so the cold at the surface hasbecome trapped, that's the only thing i can think of.

Still think 10-15cm+ is a little silly though.

lewis

Your in the prime position to see something along with Scotland.

It's to marginal for the whole of Yorkshire

Far N of Yorkshire yes.

It's looking good though for NE England (Newcastle/Tyne) area.

lewis

Then at 11:37 you said yes to snow, inline with the NMM. As a forecaster you can't be a puppet to one model!

You could do pretty well tonight.

I had a brief warm up and it's stopped and dropped again went up to 3.2c musthave been a warm sector, back down too 2.8c with a dew of -0.3c now.

lewis

Edited February 21, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Lewis]

Cheeserice,

It was marginal.

Read back at this forum thread, how many people posted snow? Only a small few from low lying areas, a majority had elevation.

It was extremely marginal. FACT!

Goodnight anyhow, need to go to sleep, some of us have to work.

Night night

Also regarding my quoted posts, the gfs/nmm was showing elevated snowfall, it was not until the 18z NMM on that night when things upgraded more bringing the freezing level down bringing an increased risk to lower levels, what was I suppose to do ignore the fact? just so it suites you sir! It also upgraded the intensity of the precipitation.

I'm sorry I appear to be a "puppet" to one model, I pay for my weather tools, and pay for the best in the business which is Pauls Netweather Extra. On top of that your beloved NAE got well I lost count on the phantom snow events, especially that one that you called 15-25cm of snow

Also was they 10-15cm nope?

Edited February 21, 2011 by Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Also regarding my quoted posts, the gfs/nmm was showing elevated snowfall, it was not until the 18z NMM on that night when things upgraded more bringing the freezing level down bringing an increased risk to lower levels, what was I suppose to do ignore the fact? just so it suites you sir! It also upgraded the intensity of the precipitation.

Also was they 10-15cm nope?

You could have used the UKMO/NAE/ECM to come up with a prediction, the NAE is a high resolution model too, which -although- has had the odd bump performs very well.

Yes there was 12cm recorded on the grass, so the prediction was perfectly accurate. The forecaster always emphasized the hills for the highest accumulations.

On top of that your beloved NAE got well I lost count on the phantom snow events, especially that one that you called 15-25cm of snow

Yes it had one iffy projection, which by the way the Met Office use. If the NMM was as accurate enough they would use it but they don't.

The NAE has gotten the last two snowfalls correct, 9th Jan & 19th Feb, when the NMM failed to do so.

[Lewis]

You could have used the UKMO/NAE/ECM to come up with a prediction, the NAE is a high resolution model too, which -although- has had the odd bump performs very well.

Yes there was 12cm recorded on the grass, so the prediction was perfectly accurate. The forecaster always emphasized the hills for the highest accumulations.

I don't have the time as I use to these days, so I look at the NMM and the GFS as they are the models I use to forecast, i look and make a prediction based on them outputs, conditions etc, time of precip/band, dews, isotherm, thickness, etc etc

The NMM honestly, buy it and you'll see what I mean, it is a fantastic model, and a top performer.

good night

lewis

[Harsh Climate]

You could have used the UKMO/NAE/ECM to come up with a prediction, the NAE is a high resolution model too, which -although- has had the odd bump performs very well.

Yes there was 12cm recorded on the grass, so the prediction was perfectly accurate. The forecaster always emphasized the hills for the highest accumulations.

Yes it had one iffy projection, which by the way the Met Office use. If the NMM was as accurate enough they would use it but they don't.

The NAE has gotten the last two snowfalls correct, 9th Jan & 19th Feb, when the NMM failed to do so.

Yes well forecasted mate, even were I worked in ilkley (125ft) there was a good 4/5cm!

[Lewis]

Friend reporting rain near Leeds/Bradford airport.

Can someone confirm please.

Temp 2.6c here with a dew of -1.

lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Friend reporting rain near Leeds/Bradford airport.

Can someone confirm please.

Temp 2.6c here with a dew of -1.

lewis

Its just foggy right now, even the radar shows that it hasn't reached the Leeds area yet.

Current temp 0.4c, DP 0.1c.

Edited February 21, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Terminal Moraine]

Temp' 0.1c here with light-moderate snow and snow grains falling. Ground whitened down to about 270 mts and 1cm lying at 330 mts.

[Cheese Rice]

Temp' 0.1c here with light-moderate snow and snow grains falling. Ground whitened down to about 270 mts and 1cm lying at 330 mts.

I think that in itself proves that we should see something wintry here today. Even if its just sleet at 200M+.

[Lewis]

Just at asda bilton down the road for me outside having a smoke a couple of flakes all be it small blowing in the wind. So should imagine further inland should be fine

But obviously the milder air and uppers will be pushing into the west now

[Harve]

Aside from these few flakes of snow - has anywhere else been experiencing this perpetual thick fog? This has been here for at least a week, i'm sure, and rarely clearing in the afternoons.

[richardc1983]

Nothing here in Crossgates (East Leeds) can we expect to see anything today? I've got my driving lesson at 1pm.