Model Watch For Tour 1

[Paul Sherman]

I always live in hope and there are about 6 days to go.

Yep Tuesday is looking nice Tom across the Lower Mississippi Valley :lol: :lol: Unfortunately too early for us.

I guess if things look favourable on the Friday then 2 of the cars can go with 6 in each and I can stay behind and wait for Mark, I am sure Tom driving with Ian Navigating and Ian M Driving the other car can be done with ease, it is my turn to take 1 for the team after last year in any case

[dogs32]

what time is the next update for the USA charts

22.00??

looks like a trip down to Fredrickburgh

or Mexico :unsure:

[Tom Lynch]

Yep Tuesday is looking nice Tom across the Lower Mississippi Valley :lol: :lol: Unfortunately too early for us.

I guess if things look favourable on the Friday then 2 of the cars can go with 6 in each and I can stay behind and wait for Mark, I am sure Tom driving with Ian Navigating and Ian M Driving the other car can be done with ease, it is my turn to take 1 for the team after last year in any case

Hi Paul

I was actually keeping half an eye out on the Pacific, watching what could potentially be over the plains on Thursday Friday but early days atm.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul

I was actually keeping half an eye out on the Pacific, watching what could potentially be over the plains on Thursday Friday but early days atm.

Tom

I know Bruce just pulling yer plonker

Lets hope the Models bring some cheer over the Easter Weekend

[Dorsetbred]

Another day, another roll of the dice, and.........the models still hate the tour 1 team.

Little or no change, with the 29th looks like being knocked on the head.

The Jet stream is still a long way north ,with the 3rd/May looking towards western Texas, and things picking up towards the end of the tour around the 8th, with some improved Jet stream development.

Weather Gods do yah thing

[dogs32]

Another day, another roll of the dice, and.........

Little or no change, with the 29th looks like being knocked on the head.

The Jet stream is still a long way north ,with the 3rd/May looking towards western Texas, and things picking up towards the end of the tour around the 8th, with some improved Jet stream development.

Weather Gods do yah thing

lets hope the reload comes sooner

thinking of u guys....

[gpspete]

lets hope the reload comes sooner

thinking of u guys....

Prune your mail box Pat can not PM you as full will delete this message asap

[dogs32]

Prune your mail box Pat can not PM you as full will delete this message asap

Sorry doing now....

all sorted...

Kansas Outbreak May

T1 going out WITH A AWESOME BANG

Now where is Quentin??

[Dorsetbred]

Sorry doing now....

all sorted...

Kansas Outbreak May

T1 going out WITH A AWESOME BANG

Now where is Quentin??

I'm here, like I said picking up towards the end

[dogs32]

I'm here, like I said picking up towards the end

but think if it was a huge outbreak

[Paul Sherman]

Amazing Outlook for the next 6 days :lol: :lol:

Severe risks following on from All this week which started Tuesday.

Saturday : Severe Ok and Ozarks

Sunday : Severe Ok and Ozarks

Monday : Severe OK/KS/MO/AR

Tuesday : Severe AR/MO/MS

Wednesday : Severe MS/AL/GA/TN/KY

Thursday : Severe Carolinas

Friday sees it go quiet with a ridge setting up across the Plains and Western Conus.

Bloody weather makes your blood boil sometimes!

[Supercell]

Ah well...we woudn't make it to the carolinas even if everyone arrived on the Thursday.

[duckeyh]

what time is the next update for the USA charts

22.00??

looks like a trip down to Fredrickburgh

or Mexico :unsure:

Hey Pat , what are the links to see these charts ?

[Dorsetbred]

Another 20" of fresh snowfall today in the rockies could be good for the skiing thoughts, and snowball chasing.

(Gotta chase something)Up on Pikes Peak a fresh 8" worth of the white stuff

Sod the lifts, we can drive up Pikes Peak and then ski down

Hey Pat , what are the links to see these charts ?

Claire

Are you really sure you wanna do that?

If so go to http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess=0f4c2075d19a89b552c821a0a9eb7f65

[Paul Sherman]

Another 20" of fresh snowfall today in the rockies could be good for the skiing thoughts, and snowball chasing.

(Gotta chase something)Up on Pikes Peak a fresh 8" worth of the white stuff

Sod the lifts, we can drive up Pikes Peak and then ski down

Claire

Are you really sure you wanna do that?

If so go to http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=usacharts;sess=0f4c2075d19a89b552c821a0a9eb7f65

Quentin

Are you sure you are reading these Charts Correctly

Tuesday 3rd and Wednesday 4th Showing Multiple Chase Days on the 06z

And that is only for 18z (12pm) would be even better if we could see the 00z (6pm)

I was half expecting you too be upbeat - Lol

[Dorsetbred]

Different run a tad more fun.

Not looked at the 06:00 runs like you have, on the one's you highlight there something there for the 3rd as mentioned from the 00 runs.

Off out will take a look in a while to see if it's real smile, or forced.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1326

And the above for Lightning Timmer from that Bastard Bloke who used to be at Accuweather

[Dorsetbred]

Quentin

Are you sure you are reading these Charts Correctly

Tuesday 3rd and Wednesday 4th Showing Multiple Chase Days on the 06z

And that is only for 18z (12pm) would be even better if we could see the 00z (6pm)

I was half expecting you too be upbeat - Lol

Ok so 3 & 4 have some tasty graphics showing, with the 4th moving towards Alabama, with the 5th looking like a swamp chasing day, before it goes quiet and recharges again on the 8th

Temps this week are due to fall up to Friday, but start to swing back upwards again from there on in.

Paul now we are entering the shorter time frame got any recommendations for the short term models other than GFS?

[Paul Sherman]

Quentin I use the following as a really good guide

GFS Model 7-16 Days

GFS & ECMWF Model 4-7 days

NAM Model 2-4 Days

RUC & NAM Model on the day

It has always held me in good stead when picking chase targets so not going to unbreak something that essentially is not broken

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

May 3rd :wub: :wub: :wub:

[Dorsetbred]

May 3rd :wub: :wub: :wub:

Gets my vote, mmmmmm

[Paul Sherman]

"Yeah fast and violent storms in the trees. Thank god the GFS looks scary for the flat treeless alley the following week. At the minimum it helps hold off this one more system lol. Now to stare at the GFS for 8 more days."

From Mike Hollingshead on Facebook

He is banking on the following week starting the 1st May being in Chase Nirvana for tghe first time this year, namely the Texas Panhandle and Western Kansas.

He is talking about blowing off Tuesday's Risk which could be Moderate or High in South East Oklahoma

This could be trending in the right direction

[dogs32]

ABOUT TIME...

things looking up....Quentin open the Champs..LOL

[Dorsetbred]

ABOUT TIME...

things looking up....Quentin open the Champs..LOL

Pat

I quickly opened the bottle of Moet in the fridge, once i'd seen 3rd of May, in fact if the Jet moved somewhat even the 2nd of May shows some promise.

Damn the shops are closed tomorrow so I'll have to wait until Monday before I can buy a replace bottle.

[icbinb]

I seem to remember last year the models were looking good before tour 1, then it ended up quieter than expected. This year will be the reverse. Think positive people!