Model Watch For Tour 1

[Paul Sherman]

I know I know it's not even worth looking at the moment and Nathan will probably come on here and say GFS Is crud at this range and get yerself some Salt etc...........But I have bee keeping an eye on the GFS For the past 2 months to see how it is doing in the 4-10 day range and the answer is pretty spectacular to be honest with about 77% accuracy for nailing events. Recent risks days are today 14/4 at 9 days out, 09/4 nailed at 10 days out etc etc

So this 1st one is just for the official landing day in 15 days time

What I will do is rate the charts 1 to 5 in terms of Smilies or Saddies

Friday 29th April 2011 Gets 4 on the Sad Scale

- Worst Possible Jet Pattern

- Temps of 17c 63f

Thank god that chart is 16 days away

Will Update these every morning

Paul S

[TornadoJo]

Bright side, at least we know we won't be missing anything on a travel day ;D

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Bright side, at least we know we won't be missing anything on a travel day ;D

Unlike last year when we had to sit in the airport watching tornadoes on the news at the end of tour 2

Couldn't really complain though it was an amazing tour.

Pleased to see this thread that menas it's getting really close now!

[Gorky]

On the plus side, if that trough was a day or two later reaching the plains, it'd be the best possible pattern Given the GFS tends to be a bit fast ejecting troughs, even 3 or 4 days out, at 16 days, you are probably golden with that chart!

(not entirely serious here)

[Dorsetbred]

Oh no we are travelling 4759 miles into cool weather......

Oh no.

So it's football on the grass outside SPC in Norman then

I'll wait for your update tomorrow, before I begin to excited for Saturday

Edited April 14, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Gorky]

The 6z GFS is essentially the exact oppposite of the 0z model on Day 16. Massive trough out west, ample moisture being pumped into the plains and temps into the 30's in texas at midnight! Exactly the model you'd like to see for the day you land with probably outbreaks as the trough ejects into the plains. Just goes to show how random the models are at this range.

[duckeyh]

Bright side, at least we know we won't be missing anything on a travel day ;D

Or to visit the local IMAX in Dallas to catch a flick

[Dorsetbred]

Or to visit the local IMAX in Dallas to catch a flick

Hopefully Sean Casey's movie will be on in the IMAX

[TornadoJo]

Or to visit the local IMAX in Dallas to catch a flick

I believe this was the plan

[Paul Sherman]

Day 2 Of Model Watch - Sad Smilies or Happy Smilies

- Land Day Sees It A Little Better

Yesterday showed 17c 63f on the Temps - Today we swing into a +1 Smilie! Lol

- 25c 77f

Now onto the 1st Chase Day

- Nothing going on there

- But Nice & Warm

Models have changed quite a bit since yesterday, let's hope they change when we get inside the 10 days Timescale re the middle of next week

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

Waiting for your update, do we see some change??

Fortunately still quite some way off

Edited April 16, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

GFS Is a Changing People

- Sat 30/4

- Sat 30/4

Just need the Upper Jet to not be displaced with the energy - Plenty of time for change

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Chase Day 2 - Sunday 1st May 2011

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[Dorsetbred]

That's looking better, some smiley faces.

Just what we want

[Paul Sherman]

With 13 days until the first Chase Day another probably fruitless look at the GFS Model, by Wednesday next week we should start to take it seriously though as the 10 day range has been fantastic.

This Tuesday's Risk in Missouri and Illinois was nalied 10 days before for Instance

Chase Day 1 - Saturday 30th April

- No Storms To Be Had Here Sir!

- Nice Energy Building though

Chase Day 2 - Sunday 1st May

- Much better Jet Shape and LP Coming across

- Getting Better

Chase Day 3 - Monday 2nd May

- Getting There

- Thats more like it!!

So Still Fantasy Island but trends are getting better

Paul S

[Dorsetbred]

More smileys today, getting better.

So it does look like IMAX or footie at SPC on Saturday, for now

Edited April 17, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[John Hanrahan]

I like the Smily rating. I think the SPC should do the same rather than drawing mens private bits on the map of the good old USA.

[Paul Sherman]

Now up to Chase Day 4 on the Model Outlook and those Models are starting to hint at something for May 3rd or May 4th Still Fantasy Land but nice to see and with the similarity with 1999 so close I wonder........... :lol:

Sat 30th April

- Still Too Far Away From The Energy

- Loads of Energy

Sun 1st May

- Starting to Like The Jet Pattern Out West

- Nice Energy Still

Mon 2nd May

- Starting to see the Classic U Bend Jet

- Instability Building

Tue 3rd May

- 1st 4/5 on the Smilometre!

- V V Nice!

So signs are getting better, lets see if the GFS Continues to be looking good as we get within the 7-10 day range

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

I hope Quentin is ok

Maybe he has fallen over :lol:

[Dorsetbred]

That's looking a lot more like the weather we are going for.

So Saturday is IMAX & the Sean Casey movie, with 72oz steak Saturday night.

Sunday is recovery for those who tried the 72 oz, and footie on the grass at the SPC.

Monday now looking more like chasing weather, so maybe it's time to hit the road and chase....

[Paul Sherman]

Careful there Mr Quentin

You will be upsetting a certain Mr Cameron soon aka "Mr Social Secretary"

[Dorsetbred]

Careful there Mr Quentin

You will be upsetting a certain Mr Cameron soon aka "Mr Social Secretary"

I hope IanC looks at these as suggestive activities, and as such are down to the social secretary to discard as he sees fit

Edited April 18, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

I hope IanC looks at these as suggestive activities, and as such are down to the social secretary to discard as he sees fit

Hehe

I am sure he is open to suggestions - The 1st thing he buys when we land are the Football and US Football along with a crate of beer

[Dorsetbred]

Ok Mr S.

Bring on those smilies.......

You mentioned IanC buying beer, I thought he was teetotal

Edited April 19, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Paul Sherman]

11 days until 1st Chase Day so if the Models are trending this in the next few days then we are nearly there. I think Quentin has been sneakily looking at these charts and knows what is about to come

[Paul Sherman]

Saturday 30th April

- Just need the Upper Forcing to Engage

- Poss Chase Day leaving DFW Late Friday

Sunday 1st May

- Woohoo Capetastic

- Jet getting better

Monday 2nd May

- 1st 5 Smile Rating

- Plenty of time for more Upper Support

Tuesday 3rd May

- Luverly Juberly

- Something is a Brewing for Chase Day 5!

Wednesday 4th May

- No overlay of Energy and Upper Support...Yet

- V Nice to end the run

Looking good people!

BTW Houston we have a Problem - Apparantly we are only allowed to post a certain amount of Smilies in any given post - Might have to change tactics