Model Watch For Tour 1

craig1uk · April 23, 2011

Absolutley mate, to my untrained eye it looks pretty active , game on !!

Gorky · April 23, 2011

18z is still very nice and quite similar to the 6z and 12z runs... Still plenty of time for it to change though as we've already seen

Paul Sherman · April 24, 2011

00z has been the Big Ugly Sister since I picked it as the model of choice but even she has joined the party following on from yesterdays 06z / 12z & 18z with a corker for 3rd May and further east on the 4th. There are also other chase opportunities.

:wub: :wub:

Paul Sherman · April 24, 2011

If anyone wants to know why I put so much faith in the GFS Model at the 10-15 day range just look at the thread from exactly 4 years ago today.

That day in question was Friday 4th May 2007 and the 1st ever EF5 That wiped Greensburg clean off the map, it is kind of scary looking at that thread and what I said in it, which is why May 3rd is starting to look a tad scary

Dorsetbred · April 24, 2011

00z has been the Big Ugly Sister since I picked it as the model of choice but even she has joined the party following on from yesterdays 06z / 12z & 18z with a corker for 3rd May and further east on the 4th. There are also other chase opportunities.

:wub: :wub:

Mornin' Paul, seems like my offering of Moet & Chandon helped to appease the Gods, they are beginning to smile on tour 1.

Anything to do with you

dogs32 · April 24, 2011

Mornin' Paul, seems like my offering of Moet & Chandon helped to appease the Gods, they are beginning to smile on tour 1.

Anything to do with you

i told u mate i spoke to God for U :lol:

I take it the drink cam e out yesterday..

sorry Paul back on topic

Dorsetbred · April 24, 2011

If anyone wants to know why I put so much faith in the GFS Model at the 10-15 day range just look at the thread from exactly 4 years ago today.

That day in question was Friday 4th May 2007 and the 1st ever EF5 That wiped Greensburg clean off the map, it is kind of scary looking at that thread and what I said in it, which is why May 3rd is starting to look a tad scary

So as asked 4 years ago

"Hmm.. You been playing with paint again Paul??.."

So on to the next chart run.....

Paul Sherman · April 24, 2011

Latest SPC 4-8 Day say Ridge - Pah WHAT RIDGE

Highlighted bit at the bottom stating the next Trough to come through is waiting in the wings, lets see if we can start on a High for Saturday 30th

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- ONGOING FROM THE DAY 3

/TUE. 4-26/ PERIOD -- IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE

OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES DAY 4 /WED. 4-27/...AS

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BOTH FORECAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE

CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE

APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL WARM

SECTOR FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER --

INCLUDING HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION

OF A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR DAY 4.

MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER

TROUGH BEGINS TO DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 5 /THU. 4-28/...THUS

CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF

THREAT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 5. THEREFORE...WHILE POTENTIALLY

SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST

STATES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE AFTERNOON

AND EVENING OF DAY 5...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA

THIS FORECAST.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 6

/FRI. 4-29/...FOCUS SHIFTS WWD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS/OUT

OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT WITH

THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WILL NOT

HIGHLIGHT ANY LONGER-RANGE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

Arron · April 24, 2011

Soooo excited for you first lot going out there now Didn't realise it was so soon!

dogs32 · April 24, 2011

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/dr-forbes-a-very-bad-week-ahead-20425

interesting link

Dorsetbred · April 24, 2011

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/dr-forbes-a-very-bad-week-ahead-20425

interesting link

Let's hope he runs the same next week.

multi cellular thunderstorm · April 24, 2011

First internet access i've had since Friday morning and I'm so relieved to see the charts and forecasts now looking so much better

Can't wait to get out there, I could see some stunning convection from the Peak District looking towards Sheffield yesterday and heard some distant booming thunder and just made me so excited for the storm chase, at that time though I was thinking that might be better than anything i'll see over there lol but how things change!

Wish I was coming over a day early like the rest of you.

Dorsetbred · April 25, 2011

Holding pattern - have we considered chasing in the Appalachians

Paul Sherman · April 25, 2011

Very Nice 00z from GFS

Shows the Following

NE Texas and E Oklahoma for Saturday 30th

Kansas and Oklahoma for Tuesday 3rd May

3 Day outbreak for 6th - 8th May

If any tour gets 5 out of 10 it is considered above average so not too shabby

1 Chart for Pat and I feel Paul M Needs to increase the CAPE Levels as this one is off the Scale for 6/5/11

dogs32 · April 25, 2011

Very Nice 00z from GFS

Shows the Following

NE Texas and E Oklahoma for Saturday 30th

Kansas and Oklahoma for Tuesday 3rd May

3 Day outbreak for 6th - 8th May

If any tour gets 5 out of 10 it is considered above average so not too shabby

1 Chart for Pat and I feel Paul M Needs to increase the CAPE Levels as this one is off the Scale for 6/5/11

wow..things are really looking up...........im packing my clothes today....LOL

Dorsetbred · April 25, 2011

Very Nice 00z from GFS

Shows the Following

NE Texas and E Oklahoma for Saturday 30th

Kansas and Oklahoma for Tuesday 3rd May

3 Day outbreak for 6th - 8th May

If any tour gets 5 out of 10 it is considered above average so not too shabby

1 Chart for Pat and I feel Paul M Needs to increase the CAPE Levels as this one is off the Scale for 6/5/11

So the M & C worked, it appeased the gods.

Bet your glad we don't have to go Appalachian chasing, aren't you?

Is this the Flip or the Flop output

**Nick F** · April 25, 2011

Outlook is looking very good for Tour 1 atm, as per latest 4-8 day outlook from SPC. I hope to be following in the evenings as much as I can providing input:

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 250855

SPC AC 250855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0355 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES DAY 4

/THU. 4-28/...THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS INJECT

UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SCENARIO. A LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE

FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS THE MUCH FASTER

MODEL EVEN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND IN THIS REGARD IT HAS

MOST CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE

SLOWER ECMWF -- AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LIKEWISE SLOWER NAM --

WOULD KEEP STORMS -- AND THUS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT --

ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE

OF A THREAT AREA ATTM UNTIL THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME MORE CLEAR.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WELL OFFSHORE DAY 5 /FRI. 4-29/...THE NEXT

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND INDUCING HIGH PLAINS

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. AS THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM SHIFTS

EWD...A SEVERAL-DAY EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY THEN MOVE

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND INTO

THE LATTER STAGES OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS

AGAIN MUCH FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS

SYSTEM...RENDERING DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION

IMPOSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN ATTM. THEREFORE...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY

OUTLOOK AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.

Worth notiing that the next system arriving from the west maybe less progressive in ejecting east than GFS projects, sometimes a habit of GFS to be too fast, though it's good at picking out long-range trends.

Tom Lynch · April 25, 2011

Looks good to me but I was never too worried. I have now really started packing in ernest, clearing old photos and videos from all cameras installed Alison House and stormlab on to laptop for the trip. Double checked flight times and online visa.

bring it on

Bruce

dogs32 · April 25, 2011

Looks good to me but I was never too worried. I have now really started packing in ernest, clearing old photos and videos from all cameras installed Alison House and stormlab on to laptop for the trip. Double checked flight times and online visa.

bring it on

Bruce

Its going to be great Tom.....This year will pack a punch..felt it all along even in the death ridge threat...

Thanks for update Nick

Timmer

Paul Sherman · April 25, 2011

Lets all have a Collective prey that the ECMWF Is correct over the much faster GFS (It usually is within the 4-8 day as GFS Is way too progressive)

If the ECMWF Is correct which I have a sneaky suspicion the SPC Are leaning towards then Moisture return would be adequate for an explosive start for Tour 1, if the GFS Is correct the system ejects too fast for moisture return and Friday / Saturday / Sunday would be the play instead of the much better Saturday / Sunday / Monday.

Then all eyes to Tuesday 3rd, another lull for the atmosphere to recharge and a Potent looking Outbreak for Friday 6th to Sunday 8th

Get those cameras charged boys and girls, and would appreciate some input in the evenings Nick

Edit:

And although this week looks insane the Tuesday and Wednesday risk would be pretty hard to chase , Not so much today as we know Stuttgart to Memphis is pretty damn good chase territory.

NL · April 25, 2011

Ive noticed over the last month that the SPC have had much more faith in the European model than over their own GFS and results have shown that they've been right to follow it, big up the ECMWF..!!

dogs32 · April 26, 2011

im not sure i will be landing on the 9th of may..

with Cape as high as that..lol

After the 9th

ive booked in death ridge for my tour :lol:

only kidding...

Dorsetbred · April 26, 2011

Oh no what happened to the SPC on their 4-8day

Text says "Predictability too low" Oh no

The flop of the flip flop, still plenty of time for it to change.

"Always look on the bright side of life....."

im not sure i will be landing on the 9th of may..

with Cape as high as that..lol

After the 9th

ive booked in death ridge for my tour :lol:

only kidding...

Headlines "Incoming flights diverted to Chicago due to tornadic outbreak in the Dallas / Fort Worth metropolis"

NL · April 26, 2011

Oh no what happened to the SPC on their 4-8day

Text says "Predictability too low" Oh no

The flop of the flip flop, still plenty of time for it to change.

"Always look on the bright side of life....."

Predictability too low is fine, its when it says Potential too low is when you should start to worry..!!

Latest SPC 4-8 day