Model Watch For Tour 1

[Arron]

Balls!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Just got an Email from Tom. The BA flight they are all on today has broken down. Pilot says its unsafe to take off. They are waiting on parts and might be delayed another couple of hours.

Could be worse I suppose.

Maybe they just noticed who is on board and realised they need a lot more alcohol. The parts they are waiting for could be an extra pallet of it!

Anyway hope they get away soon.

I'm still sitting at work, this time tomorrow I'll be on my way.

[DubWeatherAddict]

Found this...

11:25 BA193

DALLAS/FT WORTH DELAYED 14:25 Terminal five

Hoepfully they are away now ...

[chionomaniac]

In light of what they have just missed, I would like to wish all of tour 1, a productive but safe trip. Best of luck.

Ed

[ANYWEATHER]

Best Of Luck to you all and please stay safe. Looks as though to get things started, theres a slight risk of severe thunderstorms not to long a drive from you on Saturday! Anyway Best Wishes Ian

[dogs32]

yes stay safe everyone....heres hoping things erupt for u big time

lets hope these Stroms get going and produce some nice Photo oppertunties

be following in Spain

[SteveB]

Good luck everyone, looking forward to the next few weeks chasing & all the reports & pictures

[Paul Sherman]

Mwahahaha

Cape Fest for the end of Tour 1

- Friday 6th May

- Saturday 7th May

- Sunday 8th May

- Monday 9th May

:wacko: :wacko:

[Nick F]

Yes, I see the CAPE really building up over the southern and central Plains next Friday and Saturday on 12z GFS, as a 'lee low' develops over the Great Divide/High Plains which will return warm moist air northwards. This energy looks well capped on Friday across much of southern Plains, but GFS suggests the cap breaking across Kansas as a shortwave digs SE along with the cold front, so severe potential perhaps over the central Plains next Friday/Saturday. The moisture/CAPE does then look to get shunted south again by a SE moving cold front next Sunday, but this is way off and subject to change.

[nsrobins]

Agreed it looks like Thurs/Fri before moisture returns in sufficient quantities to create severe potential.

Until then there may be the odd opportunity in the high plains.

[ZONE 51]

come across this link..for anyone on here that wants to see the USA lightning strikes USA - lightning latest

[Nick F]

Perhaps some dryline storms on Friday over the high southern Plains of TX and OK, then some tentative good news from SPC for the weekend onwards for Tour 1, next major trough into the west should start to affect the mid-west by Sunday, though from what I can see there appears to be some differences between GFS and 00z ECM on when and where the cap will break - despite the large amounts of CAPE building across the Plains next weekend as moisture returns north ahead of the upper trough arriving in the west. I suspect a trek to the central and northern Plains maybe in order to make use of the stronger upper winds, starting off in the High Plains, then moving east:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0252 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2011

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ON FRI/D4...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS

A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BENEATH A WEAK NWLY FLOW

ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WHILE STRONG HEATING MAY

RESULT IN CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE...ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE

PARTICULARLY SEVERE WITH ONLY 50S DEWPOINTS AND CAPPING CONCERNS.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY

FRIDAY NIGHT DRIVEN BY A LOW LEVEL JET...BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON

THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS.

THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...BUT

PREDICTABILITY AND OVERALL POTENTIAL DO NOT WARRANT SEVERE AREAS AT

THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...THEY DO AGREE THAT

BEGINNING ON SUN/D6...A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE

WRN STATES...WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE

PLAINS STATES. THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING

FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO

TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE

PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN

SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS.

[Nick F]

I know it's rather a long wait till the weekend, but hopefully Tour 1 will go out with a bang! There could be some issues with capping though at the weekend, despite the juicy looking CAPE projections across the Plains, there is a rather deep EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) to overcome, hence the big CAPE values, but high temps and dry line forcing *could* overcome it - more especially Sunday by the looks of it.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID

ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING

QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY

THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM

THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY

BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD

AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON

THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED

TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL

BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL

JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS

WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW

QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN

IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL

HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND

ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL

OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE

POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH

UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY

BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN

PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT

ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF

THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION.

SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY

10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT

NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

[chionomaniac]

Looking a little more promising for the end of tour 1.

[nsrobins]

Looks like a multi-day severe threat is developing, beginning with discrete dryline interactions (OK) on Sunday and expanding into more of a jet driven (higher tor probabilities) event Mon/Tues.

A lively end to tour 1 and potentially explosive start to tour 2 could be on the cards.

I don't put too much emphasis on GFS but the furthest reaches of the latest NAM go to 18Z Sunday and show a very well defined DL in SW OK extending from a developing surface low in W NE. Moisture ahead of the DL circa 72F with stout capping along it but this is likely to dissolve by 21Z west to east.

Some backing surface winds may generate tor potential so one to watch.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes looking good for the end of Tour 1 and Start of Tour 2 and also looks like we will be chasing on Changeover day as well for the lucky few who have booked flights a day later. So a possible 4 day Reloading Dryline Outbreak coming for the end of Tour 1 and Start of Tour 2