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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

SkyWarn UK Alert Update (11.30 UTC , 12.30 BST)

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Once this band making its way up from N.England clears through , i think the probability of the southern half of scotland getting t-storms is very high :drinks:

I would be inclined to remove North Wales from the threat area. Not out of negativity or pessimism but purely because it is just too cloudy and cool right now. Looking out right now I'd have to be realistic in assessing the current likelihood as no higher than 0%

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

I would be inclined to remove North Wales from the threat area. Not out of negativity or pessimism but purely because it is just too cloudy and cool right now. Looking out right now I'd have to be realistic in assessing the current likelihood as no higher than 0%

This is wrong. It's 2pm, the sun is already breaking out. The front has moved away from us.

We have a very chance later on. The charts don't lie. :lol:

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Hmm, looks fun for me then :D

Sun is coming out here now. So lots of convective potential around for today. Give me more storms please. This year has already been one of the most active years I have seen

Ive not had one yet!! Im quite confident I will see one befor the weekends out though ;)

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sparky1972 Community Regular

sparky1972

Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
Posted

after a short burst of heavy rain a while ago, skys begining to brighten, feels alot more humid now, met office just have heavy rain forecast for here toninght but im hoping that we might catch a storm at some point, now have to decide if its worth staying up tonight. lol

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted (edited)

This is wrong. It's 2pm, the sun is already breaking out. The front has moved away from us.

We have a very chance later on. The charts don't lie. :lol:

Hope your right bud.

EDIT : Light rain falling again :cc_confused:

Edited by Carl43Wrexham
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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Very nice warm up here right now. 15.8C to 17.0C in under 10 minutes.

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sendandreturn Contributor

sendandreturn

Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire
  • Location: Southsea, Hampshire
Posted

What a night!

Was up Portsdown Hill near me till 3am this morning, just watching the main bulk move in (with quite a wind shear and some small rotating funnels) then smaller but more active sferics move across, was fantastic to watch!

Heres for tonight! drinks.gif

keep me posted, i am back home tonight

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Static Prevails Apprentice

Static Prevails

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire
Posted

I'd say going from what the charts and other agencies are advising, the area most at risk for the 'big stuff' aka Supercells, SLW, possible Tornadic activity is in a box slap-bang in the middle of Northern England. From Lancs to the Humber and as far south as Birmingham is the area in question. Maybe being optimistic somewhat as I'm expected to see 3 rounds from this (2 of which involve surface-based convection) but most people chasing are already getting the kit together or hitting the road now.

Cheshire, Derbyshire, Lancs later on in the afternoon is where people are going to see some big convection and reports coming out in the next couple of hours.

That's what I like to hear. :)

Cloudy here, although the sun has the potential to break through.

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted
www.worthingweather.org has a real time lightning detector for the south :D

Cheers Tomp is that your site?

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

the sun has just come out now at last and feeling very thundery. You can even feel the thermals rising and the ground is steaming!

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

Cheers Tomp is that your site?

nahh, i wish ;):D

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jojobut Apprentice

jojobut

Posted
  • Location: Burgess Hill, West Sussex. 44m asl
  • Location: Burgess Hill, West Sussex. 44m asl
Posted

IOW detector is back up and running, with an apology lol

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marksp Aficionado

marksp

Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
Posted

I'd say going from what the charts and other agencies are advising, the area most at risk for the 'big stuff' aka Supercells, SLW, possible Tornadic activity is in a box slap-bang in the middle of Northern England. From Lancs to the Humber and as far south as Birmingham is the area in question. Maybe being optimistic somewhat as I'm expected to see 3 rounds from this (2 of which involve surface-based convection) but most people chasing are already getting the kit together or hitting the road now.

Cheshire, Derbyshire, Lancs later on in the afternoon is where people are going to see some big convection and reports coming out in the next couple of hours.

Hi Snow Joke, looks good for my location (West Derbyshire). We have a hog roast and activity evening planned at the rugby club, 6.00pm to 9.00pm for the kids,could this be interupted.

I'm down there 4.00 to 5.00pm keeping an eye on the feast, should be 80 to 100 kids out on the fields ????

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

What a night!

Was up Portsdown Hill near me till 3am this morning, just watching the main bulk move in (with quite a wind shear and some small rotating funnels) then smaller but more active sferics move across, was fantastic to watch!

Heres for tonight! drinks.gif

Me too where abouts were you?

If you or anyone else are thinking about heading up there again tonight please read my thread in the storm enthusiasts section

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted

keep me posted, i am back home tonight

Will do!

Starting to brighten up here now, suns making an appearance now and again... starting to feel very humid again, temperature around 22c

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

A level 1 was issued for UK and western France mainly for some chance of tornadoes.

lol i like that, I was only expecting gusty winds. Im in the 1 warning but im only in the 15% area. good luck everyone!

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted

Me too where abouts were you?

If you or anyone else are thinking about heading up there again tonight please read my thread in the storm enthusiasts section

I was all around, mostly at Micks from around 8 till 11, then went around, returned to the hill around 12am. Was such a good sight, just couldn't leave!

Sadly, I cannot make it to the hill this evening, but i'm sure others will be up there!

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Will my cloud clear soon? It's worrying me slightly.

Not sure. Looking at sat24 the cloud is only just starting to break around Southern England.

It's moving quite fast though, so let's hope? :p

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

I was all around, mostly at Micks from around 8 till 11, then went around, returned to the hill around 12am. Was such a good sight, just couldn't leave!

Sadly, I cannot make it to the hill this evening, but i'm sure others will be up there!

Yes it was a good night, shame you cant make it tonight.

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

New storm just gone up around Ardrossan for the Scots on the board.

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marksp Aficionado

marksp

Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
Posted

Will my cloud clear soon? It's worrying me slightly.

i was thimking about this, but don't worry the sun has just burst through hear, full on leaving shadows on the patio. Looks like its going to get going soon for our area. :rolleyes:

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Had some showers overnight and through today - but no t/storms, alas.

However, for those in Kent and E Sussex, there looks to be an opportunity, tonight. This probably will only affect W Kent, and E Sussex, mind you.

Consider this skew-t:

post-5986-0-97615200-1304773897_thumb.gi

I'm afraid one must ignore the CAPE and LI on this; the convection should have already initiated in France so surface conditions are not critical. However, look at the TT value: 50. A value of 50 might be read in English as 'borderline between thunderstorms expected and scattered severe thunderstorms' One of the associated factors of TT is to ensure that moisture is available, and that it is comparitevly moister abover 850hPa than below it. Here we go ...

post-5986-0-32972800-1304774202_thumb.gipost-5986-0-34034900-1304774213_thumb.gipost-5986-0-00938100-1304774224_thumb.gipost-5986-0-62528900-1304774286_thumb.gi

It's not perfect, but there's more moisture above 850hPa than below it. This is fuel for t/storms, and we can see this by looking at the how quickly the air rises:

post-5986-0-66371900-1304774438_thumb.gipost-5986-0-36497100-1304774458_thumb.gi

These areas should give rise to large clouds with rapidly climbing packets of air within them for a time; we can see this from the GFS precip forecast:

post-5986-0-12232300-1304774577_thumb.gipost-5986-0-66490400-1304774589_thumb.gi

And we can see the primary reason for these atmospheric disturbances on the MetO chart:

post-5986-0-60425000-1304774741_thumb.gi

.. two cold fronts sweep across the region in quick succession.

Timings? Anytime between 9pm and 3am is my bet. Odds? 70% chance for E Sussex, and W Kent during this time.

Happy Hunting!

:)

Edited by VillagePlank
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Hi Snow Joke, looks good for my location (West Derbyshire). We have a hog roast and activity evening planned at the rugby club, 6.00pm to 9.00pm for the kids,could this be interupted.

I'm down there 4.00 to 5.00pm keeping an eye on the feast, should be 80 to 100 kids out on the fields ????

If there's a nearby building you should be okay. Don't forget to take a AM radio (a crude lightning detector) if your unable to get internet access, this should give you at least some notice there'll be sferics around. The louder the crackles on the radio the closer the lightning.

4-5pm should be when the convection is initiating if not already, the storms will gradually be moving North so if your upwind of these you'll get the worst than being under the main convective phase itself. Later on in the night 6-9pm is when the secondary phase of the theta e-plume, giving higher based IC lightning. These are forecasted to come up from the South so a repetition of last night's events, with a higher likelyhood most places will see something from the MCS.

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