Autumn 2011

[Snowstorm1]

Okay, so i have just been on an american proffesional forum filled with people either with meteorlogical degrees or actually working in the industry (can't really provide the link to everybody and i am not even a member).

Basicaly, one of the mets was looking at the prospects for winter and while the forecast was american centred, there were also references to Europe.

Basically, what he expects is..

-QBO

Weak La Nina

Low NAM values (no idea what it is, but we had it the last two winters)

So the points to pick out for us were..

December

First half features the core of cold in eastern Europe with a weak ridge over the north eastern Atlantic. This could indicate ridging pretty much over the UK.

Second half features a strong ridge over Greenland and a stratospheric warming event in late December or early January.

January

Coldest surge in first half of January.

Second half of January features ridge over Greenland collapsing and setting up over Scandinavia

Feburary

First half features ridge in mid-Atlantic

Second half features another SSW event which maintains the cold into March

Hope he is correct.

I understood some of this but maybe translate it into more amateur language next to it?

Edited August 7, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[SP1986]

I cant profess to even have an idea what this winter will bring. However I'm not going to tout the cold trumpet - it's understandable that people are automatically jumping on the cold bandwagon, especially given the state of solar affairs, and the current stubborn pattern - however for me, the key thing is to remember even in cold periods in the past (presumably including solar minimum periods), not every winter was cold - even, I suspect, during years that may have seemed perfect.

So I don't really know personally, I won't even make a claim, however I will say it does appear to bode well for cold, but even in this seemingly good set up, it doesn't necessarily mean cold.

[A Winter's Tale]

Updated PWS Extreme Long Range Forecast - UK:

DECEMBER 2011:

COLDER than the Average. On the average or drier than average for MOST parts, BAR Nothern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England and Ireland.

White Christmas - 33%

JANUARY 2012:

COLDER than average GENERALLY. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER than average for SCOTLAND and NORTH EAST ENGLAND.

Drier than average for many areas, BAR SCOTLAND and NORTH EAST ENGLAND.

FEBRUARY 2012:

COLDER than average. ESPECIALLY early month.

WETTER than average for much of SCOTLAND, NOTHERN IRELAND, IRELAND, NOTHERN ENGLAND and MIDLANDS.

***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

A forecast to only be taken by a pinch of salt however it makes for quite interesting reading.

Now it's time for A Winter's Tale first look at the weather over the coming Months:

A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 1 - 7/8/2011

AUGUST 2011:

Following a period of settled/warm conditions, the UK should be under the influence of Low Pressure coming from the west. This should bring windy and wet weather across the UK for about a week. The hardest hit areas should be much of Scotland, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland. The Midlands should be overcast aswell as parts of eastern coasts and Northern parts of Wales. Much of the South and East should remain fairly settled and dry however the South West may be at risk of some heavy rain.

Following this unsettled spell we should see a calmer and warmer spell of weather arriving from the South/East. Much of Southern and Eastern England, Southern Wales and Eastern Scotland should benefit from sunshine and pleasant temperatures whereas western areas of England and Wales and SW Scotland may be at risk of rain and cloud cover though the Highlands of Scotland will vary with some days of prolonged rain and some days of wall-wall sunshine.

Unsettled South Westerly winds should follow the calmer spell. This will bring rain and wind to all parts though NW England and Scotland will hold onto the rain longer than other regions. There should be some showery spells and sunshine inbetween fronts.

SEPTEMBER 2011:

The month will begin with a brief warm spell with temperatures of 20c-26c in the South and East of England and temps of 15c-23c in other regions. The NW Highlands should hold onto extensive low cloud cover.

The Atlantic will intervene and bring extensive and heavy rainfall to all parts with notably heavy rain for parts of Scotland and Northern England. There could be a risk of flooding and it will feel positively autumnal with temps of 9c-13c under overcast skies and high winds.

After an unsettled period, High pressure should prevail and eventually bring a spell of summery weather to much of the UK. Widespread sunshine and temps around the high teens to mid twenties for most parts. Cloud cover only restricted to Eastern coasts and some upland areas.

The High Pressure will eventually move to a position that will bring slighly cooler conditions, albeit sunny. Winds will strenghen and there may be a slight touch of frost under clear skies in rural areas.

Winds will turn to more of northerly which will bring plenty of showers under a fresh wind. By Day, temperatures will be pleasant however by night we may see some cold temperatures and some frost. Some showers may be wintry on the highest Scottish peaks.

OCTOBER 2011:

A Polar maritime theme will replace the nothernly airstream and bring unsettled conditions with plenty of showers, cloud cover and low pressure systems. Expect strong winds and some flooding.

Yet again High pressure will begin to dominate and the UK will be under an easterly/south easterly air stream. This may bring some warm temperatures to the South East, however the UK should enjoy extensive sunshine. There may be some frost by night in Scotland.

The period following the settled conditions will see a mixture of two or three (or maybe more) days of settled conditions, followed by one or two days of unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions followed by cloud cover moving west to east before settled conditions prevail again. Some periods of settled/unsettled conditions may be longer than others. It will feel positively autumnal.

The last few days of October should see a front leaving the UK with some fog and cloud cover following behind and a clear/cloudy and cool Halloween night could be possible.

NOVEMBER 2011:

Simular to October, there will be days of settled conditions, days of low pressure then cloud/fog before the UK is under a brief period of either NW, N, NE winds. The first few days will see one or two low pressure systems passing over the UK, leaving the country under more settled albeit cooler conditions for Bonfire Night 2011.

Folllowing Bonfire Night, there should be a few settled days. There may be some showers and these could be wintry in some nothern areas. The atlantic may appear once more.

Following a burst of activity from the atlantic, just before mid month we will see the UK under a brief cold spell. Temperatures may range from 1c in some highland areas to 9c in the SW. A Low pressure system from the west will end the cold spell however there could be some battleground snowfalls - most likely in nothern areas.

A few days of showery conditions and local prolonged cloud cover will dominate most of the UK although some areas such as local Highland spots, S Wales, S England and London may escape such conditions.

Throughout most of November, a cold pool had developed over parts of Northern and Eastern Europe. Like much of the summer/spring High pressure will develop either: over greenland; over the atlantic; to the north; to the east.

During the last third/quarter of the month, the UK will be under an easterly/north easterly airstream with the wind in NE Scotland originating from Scandinavia/Siberia and the wind in E Scotland/ England originating from the Baltics, Southern Scandinavia and Central/Eastern Europe. The UK will see temperatures dropping each day and there will be frost by night everwhere. However eastern parts of the UK will be hardest hit by snow showers and there should be some decent accumilations to begin with. Southern England and Central Scotland will also suffer occasionally from heavy, persistent snow showers from the east.

During the last quarter of the month the cold spell should intensify with temperatures not rising above freezing for many areas and night time temperatures to begin with dropping to somewhere between -2c in the warmest urban areas to -15c (or below) in Highland Scotland however day by day the temperatures will drop and -20c may be hit before the month is out and temps of -5c to -10c may become a common occurance during the night. However the east of the UK will bear the brunt of the snow with much of NE England, E/NE/C Scotland being worst hit although there will be days of crisp, winter sunshine with flurries. The north of Scotland may be under more of a NNE wind later on and Northern Ireland/W Scotland may be under a northerly wind with snow showers. These showers may emerge to become more persistent and widespread in the Irish Sea to affect parts of Wales and SW England.

DECEMBER 2011:

The first 5-10 days of December will see the UK to continuing to be in an intense cold spell with severe frosts by night and snowfalls. Snowfalls will vary with eastern/central parts of England/Scotland have heavy snow showers one day/ then only a few flurries the next. However when it's not snowing we can expect very cold temperatures by day with some places not rising above -7c. The focus point of the snow will change each day as each region will have their shot of the snow. Night time temperatures will be around -4c (in the warmest cities) to -25c in the coldest rural areas of Scotland. After a period of widespread snow showers across all parts, the UK will eventually be under a more settled spell will prevail with clear skies under a NE wind with some flurries. However it will be incredibly cold with day time temperatures not even rising above -5c for most parts and -20c will become more common by night (and not only in rural parts of Scotland). Towards the end of the period the activity of showers will increase once again.

The cold spell over the UK will lose its intestity as High pressure moves slightly and winds come from more of a southerly and for some parts SE/SW. This will raise temperatures a bit (particulary for the south) however the north of Scotland should remain the cold conditions. This period will see little in the way of precipiation with only occasional drizzle, otherwise it will be dry and clear. However whilst the UK is under a slightly less cold period of weather, the core of cold will remain over Scandinavia, Eastern/Central Europe. This will grow into an even more intesne cold spell that will eventually breakthrough and reach the UK.

After snow depths exceeded 40cm in Eastern parts with 30cm recorded in some central areas, there was only 5-25cm of snow left after a less cold period. However the southerly airstream would be pushed westwards as high pressure rises in Nothern Scandinavia and the Greenland high re-astablishes itself again. For the first few days, daytime temperatures will be chilly with frost by night. However, like the last cold spell, it will get colder and colder day by day - only this time it will become more propminent.

Sometime around the 17th, the UK will see the first snow showers arriving in SE England. Daytime temps of 1c to -4c to begin with and night time temps of -3c to -12c. Like the last cold spell, Scotland will bear the brunt of the snow only this time its worse with snow showers travelling over the mountains and affecting some western highland and island areas. Northern Ireland will also benefit from the easterly airstream with snow showers passed on from central scotland. Like the last cold spell, it won't be persistent snow showers every day, there will be a variety in snowfall. Southern/Central England and Wales is also more likely to be affected in this cold spell with some heavy and large areas of snowfalls from the continent/north sea picking up intestity over the channel. This could bring some prolonged and exceptionally widespread snowfall over the southern half of the UK. There will be some quiter days in terms of snowfall, however the cold will become more intense on clear days with temps not rising above -10c in some areas and temps of -15c to -25c will become far more common.

On the days before Christmas, the UK will see a variety of conditions with a blizzard in the moring (or night) with a mostly sunny day with flurries and a night with some showers (or vice versa). I expect everwhere to see some snow, however any snowfall will come from large areas of precipiation followed by periods of winter sunshine with some flurries. To sum it up it will be a mixture of sunshine, flurries and heavy snow each day. Temperatures will reach their coldest. Christmas should see the same them with periods of large, widespread showers crossing the country followed by sparkling wintry sunshine.

After Christmas, some atlantic fronts may reach the channel and spread as far north as the midlands before clearing into the Netherlands. This will bring very heavy snowfall for a time and add to any present accumilations. Snow showers will continue for NE England and Scotland though the theme should be more settled but bitterly cold. Eventually, things may warm up a touch in the south with a thaw though the cold will remain in nothern areas. For the New Year, an atlantic front will engulf the UK and bring widespread snowfall.

MY FORECAST FOR JANUARY WILL BE ISSUED NEXT MONTH ASWELL AS AN UPDATE FOR THE OTHER MONTHS.

A Winter's Tale

[Ben_Cambs]

Statistically I believe were way overdue a cold September. This may not be the case for other areas, but for my location at least were also overdue a wet September. The past few Septembers have been dry, most notably in 2009 when only about 10mm of rain fell at my location.

[Staffordshire]

Can I see you're winter forecast for last year Winters Tale?How accurate was it?

[Robbie Garrett]

-20 in London?? :S

[NorthernRab]

I really don't think we'll see -20'C in London, it would be interesting however - what is the (modern) London record? I thought it wasn't much below -8'C?

Edited August 8, 2011 by NorthernRab

[Jack Wales]

Interesting forecast (or should I say hopecast!!) from A Winters Tale.

If your prediction is a serious one, would you mind posting what your methodology was for arriving at such a forecast please? Thanks.

Edited August 8, 2011 by Jack Wales

[ZONE 51]

Im waiting until mid september like last year before i make any forecast, but before that im getting signals of a stormy october!

Winter Tale great forecast! you dont have to provide any technical stuff unless you want to, if any one wants to posts their thoughts on autumn and winter then we will be happy to read them! you do not need to say anything other then whats your thoughts are if you dont want to, you dont have to provide 'evidence' .and some may have other 'types' of signals to upstream weather patterns so cannot post it!

Edited August 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

I really don't think we'll see -20'C in London, it would be interesting however - what is the (modern) London record? I thought it wasn't much below -8'C?

-10c I believe at Heathrow,. There are records of the temperature falling to -21c some time int he 17 or 1800's.

Im waiting until mid september like last year before i make any forecast, but before that im getting signals of a stormy october!

Winter Tale great forecast! you dont have to provide any technical stuff unless you want to, if any one wants to posts their thoughts on autumn and winter then we will be happy to read them! you do not need to say anything other then whats your thoughts are if you dont want to, you dont have to provide 'evidence' .and some may have other 'types' of signals to upstream weather patterns so cannot post it!

I've seen a few people saying this winter will see a weak La Nina which will strengthen later on, compared to last winters strong La Nina, which might mean wintry in the latter half of winter? Not sure though.

[A Winter's Tale]

Can I see you're winter forecast for last year Winters Tale?How accurate was it?

Unfortuantly I didn't have a forecast for last winter however I did somehow feel that something relatively significant may occur during that winter.

[Methuselah]

I cant profess to even have an idea what this winter will bring. However I'm not going to tout the cold trumpet - it's understandable that people are automatically jumping on the cold bandwagon, especially given the state of solar affairs, and the current stubborn pattern - however for me, the key thing is to remember even in cold periods in the past (presumably including solar minimum periods), not every winter was cold - even, I suspect, during years that may have seemed perfect.

So I don't really know personally, I won't even make a claim, however I will say it does appear to bode well for cold, but even in this seemingly good set up, it doesn't necessarily mean cold.

I think that you've summed-up the situation very well there, Stephen.

[artfularshavin]

artfularshavin..forecast for the months ahead!..

SEPTEMBER...a mixed month generally,with some dry and long sunny spells,mixed betwen showers and longer spells of rain.although it will be drier more often then not.temperatures wil be below average,particuarly towards the end of month.12-15 c

OCTOBER...wil start on quite a wet and windy note,particuarly in the west and north.and southwest.the south and east will be somewhat drier and brighter,still with showers here!..as we move through the month,from say the 15th-20th,high pressure will become dominant,and settle the weather down,into cool sunny days and nights.with just isolated showers about.frosts will become a feature. a cool end to the month!

NOVEMBER...a cool to cold start,with the same theme,frosts and fog..too dominate,so therefore plenty of dry weather around and quite pleasent with the HIGH sitting mainly rite over the uk.i then expect a slight change mid month,with the high moving into a west northwest position,and quite a keen wind form the north or northeast blowing down.this will eventually bring down snow showers to the north of england scotland..and eventually down the eastern side. it will be a cold month,temps well below average..6-7 in the south..2-5 in the north!

DECEMBER..chilly,at the very least with some hard to severe overnight frosts becoming quite common.snow will also.be a feature,particualry in the east,where accumalations well maybe become deep as the month progresses.i see quite a dismal month,in terms of temperatures,cold too rather cold throughout not much respite from the north and also from the east..again a very much below average month,with some sever spells of weather setting in,especially from mid month onwards! average temps..2-4 in south...1-3 in north!

JANUARY...a very cold january looks on the cards to me!..quite possibly a severe month to extreme..with consistant east to northeasterly winds,plenty of snow again..mainly in the east and north.with scotland especially seeing lots of the white stuff!..this will be the coldest month seen for many years in the uk i feel,a rather depressing month,i see people not being able to get out and do much things,too much snow and ice will be a hazard. a freezing january.is looking quite possible to me...temps..0-2 in the south...-3-1 in the north!! oh dear

[Robbie Garrett]

I really don't think we'll see -20'C in London, it would be interesting however - what is the (modern) London record? I thought it wasn't much below -8'C?

-10c I believe at Heathrow,. There are records of the temperature falling to -21c some time int he 17 or 1800's.

I've seen a few people saying this winter will see a weak La Nina which will strengthen later on, compared to last winters strong La Nina, which might mean wintry in the latter half of winter? Not sure though.

Well in Winter 2010, when I was stupid enough to go to Biggin Hill Airport at 4/5am the temperature was around -15*C according to the weather station that we had.

-20*C for London, would be cool - not much TFL and Boris can do about it now can he? LOL

[Methuselah]

There has been an increase in solar activity in recent days, anyone got any idea what effect this might have on our winter this year?

Probably no effect whatsoever, mate?

[Aaron]

Probably no effect whatsoever, mate?

Alright then. Seen a few people saying it might increase the chances of a mild winter in Western Europe.

[Coast]

A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 1 - 7/8/2011

A very detailed and in-depth forecast, I applaud the obvious effort you have put into it!

With such specific detail, could you just elaborate a little on what factors you considered for this forecast, what data you have looked at and any other information (meteorological or otherwise) you have included? I think members will be keen to see if they can follow your reasoning and methods and then, as the next few months unfold, we can see what is right, what doesn't go to plan and why it succeeds or otherwise.

I suspect we will have another members Winter forecast thread nearer the time, so we can look back after that period and see who got close.

[Radiating Dendrite]

artfularshavin..forecast for the months ahead!..

SEPTEMBER...a mixed month generally,with some dry and long sunny spells,mixed betwen showers and longer spells of rain.although it will be drier more often then not.temperatures wil be below average,particuarly towards the end of month.12-15 c

OCTOBER...wil start on quite a wet and windy note,particuarly in the west and north.and southwest.the south and east will be somewhat drier and brighter,still with showers here!..as we move through the month,from say the 15th-20th,high pressure will become dominant,and settle the weather down,into cool sunny days and nights.with just isolated showers about.frosts will become a feature. a cool end to the month!

NOVEMBER...a cool to cold start,with the same theme,frosts and fog..too dominate,so therefore plenty of dry weather around and quite pleasent with the HIGH sitting mainly rite over the uk.i then expect a slight change mid month,with the high moving into a west northwest position,and quite a keen wind form the north or northeast blowing down.this will eventually bring down snow showers to the north of england scotland..and eventually down the eastern side. it will be a cold month,temps well below average..6-7 in the south..2-5 in the north!

DECEMBER..chilly,at the very least with some hard to severe overnight frosts becoming quite common.snow will also.be a feature,particualry in the east,where accumalations well maybe become deep as the month progresses.i see quite a dismal month,in terms of temperatures,cold too rather cold throughout not much respite from the north and also from the east..again a very much below average month,with some sever spells of weather setting in,especially from mid month onwards! average temps..2-4 in south...1-3 in north!

JANUARY...a very cold january looks on the cards to me!..quite possibly a severe month to extreme..with consistant east to northeasterly winds,plenty of snow again..mainly in the east and north.with scotland especially seeing lots of the white stuff!..this will be the coldest month seen for many years in the uk i feel,a rather depressing month,i see people not being able to get out and do much things,too much snow and ice will be a hazard. a freezing january.is looking quite possible to me...temps..0-2 in the south...-3-1 in the north!! oh dear

Did you sit in the freezer to write this forecast?

[P-M]

Just wanted to say thanks to all who are sticking their necks out and putting predictions out at this range. If anything it's fun to follow and see who got the closest ect.

Personally I am not sure how at this range, a forecast can be accurate and from an IMBY perspective I hope that the severity of these predictions do NOT come true lol But, as I am not a trained or educated individual in terms of model watching and weather predictions, I can only read and wonder what this winter has in store. If it is anything like last year but more prolonged, then chaos springs to mind!!

[Richie V]

At the risk of recieving negative voting, I'm hoping for an atlantic driven winter on the whole as I have thousands of young Euclayptus saplings in my care. A bitter winter like winters gone could be devestating and cost me a LOT of money in lost revenue!

Edited August 8, 2011 by Richie V

[johnholmes]

Anyone giving detail so far ahead is being very misleading, taking each month separately for example-no offence intended but it is quite impossible.

What MAY be possible is to give some idea of the winter as a whole, mild, cold, a mix etc, even then I'm far from convinced that its at all accurate in the sense of getting temperature values within any meaningful value.

My view only but as someone has posted interesting to read folks ideas. I note there is very little suggestion of anything but cold of some degree!

Just what most want to read so I suspect than anyone posting the opposite no matter how much use is made of long term links etc will not be well received!

[Richie V]

Anyone giving detail so far ahead is being very misleading, taking each month separately for example-no offence intended but it is quite impossible.

What MAY be possible is to give some idea of the winter as a whole, mild, cold, a mix etc, even then I'm far from convinced that its at all accurate in the sense of getting temperature values within any meaningful value.

My view only but as someone has posted interesting to read folks ideas. I note there is very little suggestion of anything but cold of some degree!

Just what most want to read so I suspect than anyone posting the opposite no matter how much use is made of long term links etc will not be well received!

Trust me John, I'd be happy with the mildest winter on record this time. Funny how money can sway an opinion Is'nt it! lol.

I would pay GOOD money this year for an accurate LRF.

The first person to predict highly accurate LRF's 1 or 2 seasons ahead will be an extremeley rich person!

[Kiwi]

At the risk of recieving negative voting, I'm hoping for an atlantic driven winter on the whole as I have thousands of young Euclayptus saplings in my care. A bitter winter like winters gone could be devestating and cost me a LOT of money in lost revenue!

I thought that many types of eucalyptus, even saplings, were fine with low temps.

http://www.blueram.net/eucalyptus/indepthguide/hardiness.asp

[Richie V]

I thought that many types of eucalyptus, even saplings, were fine with low temps.

http://www.blueram.net/eucalyptus/indepthguide/hardiness.asp

There only 4 weeks old at the moment, even comes January anything colder than -5C theyre history.

They will be tolerant to -12, -18c the following year.

Eucs dont have a dormacy period and given a little warmth and moisture will grow rapidly 365 days of the year.

Edited August 8, 2011 by Richie V

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

An update from James Madden.

7^th August 2011 Update

Summer 2011 – Recap to date

June 2011

June turned out to be very wet and unsettled across the UK. Rainfall was largely above average, with many areas seeing more than 150% of their normal rainfall amounts, including drought hit eastern areas.

June was also the coldest in the UK for 10 years, with Northern Ireland experiencing their coolest June in 25 years. The mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for June was -0.4C below average.

July 2011

July also turned out to be relatively wet and unsettled across many parts of the UK. Certain parts of England and Scotland received 200% of their normal rainfall amounts, with rainfall amounts elsewhere more near average overall.

July was also the coldest in the UK for over 10 years, with minimum temperature resulting in the coldest July across the UK in over 30 years. The minimum Central England Temperature (CET) data had a significant anomaly of -1.1C. Although it has felt more pleasant at times with less rainless days during July in certain regions, the mean Central England Temperature (CET) data for July was -0.8C below average. Other long range forecasters failed to consider the intensity of the rainfall when it occurred or the minimum temperature, just as they will underestimate the intensity of snowfall and below average temperatures this winter.

Grey Skies

Many regions across the UK have also experienced notable grey skies due to above average cloud cover, as I originally forecast. I expect this trend to continue as I have outlined many times, due to the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years.

Original Forecast

I originally issued my UK summer forecast on the 30^th January this year, well in advance of any other forecaster worldwide.

It read “Summer 2011â€

“It would be adequate to suggest below average temperatures in terms of how I calculate solar activity in my forecasts, so it looks like a summer of grey skies and damp weather, and it's probably safe to say that there will be no BBQ summer again this yearâ€.

I also issued a warning for torrential downpours and severe flooding.

Summer 2011 Publications

I provided the Sunday Sun and Chronicle with my 2011 UK summer forecast in early April which read

“But, sun worshippers have been warned to make the most of the hot weather as long range forecasters say the outlook for summer is gloomy. James Madden said judging by solar activity and the current ocean atmosphere, the UK could see more rain and a dip in temperatures in June, July, and August. He said: “based on the factors covered, the summer as a whole could unfortunately be colder than average with above average rainfall. “In my opinion, odds of a barbecue summer this year are slim.â€

http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2011/04/10/north-east-makes-the-most-of-the-lovely-weather-79310-28487833/

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/north-east-news/evening-chronicle-news/2011/04/09/tyneside-is-in-for-a-scorcher-of-a-weekend-72703-28487268/

August will have to show a major improvement to avoid a cold and wet UK summer this year. As it stands at present with more unsettled weather in store, a colder than average summer with above average rainfall is looking extremely likely as I originally forecast. The torrential downpours and severe flooding that we have seen in early August, have already seen parts of Yorkshire receive more than one month's rainfall in just 12 hours. Parts of north-east England and Northern Ireland also experienced severe conditions due to localised flooding, with further flood alerts also put in place across Northern England and Scotland.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/northern-england-put-flood-alert-104014593.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/04/flash-floods-yorkshire-torrential-rain

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2011/08/08/woman-dies-as-floods-batter-scotland-and-the-north-115875-23327860/

La Niña Watch – Update

The Climate Prediction Center recently issued a ENSO alert system status for a (La Niña Watch).

I clearly stated in March and May of this year that

“NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña conditions will be all but gone by June 2011. I personally feel that this prediction is wrong and once again way underestimated, hence my future flood warnings.â€

“Recent NOAA predictions give a 50% chance that La Niña will have completely disappeared by June 2011. However, I am not convinced that it will completely disappear. Recent indicators may suggest neutral conditions for the season ahead, but it is also important to take forecast accuracy into consideration for this time of year and the current phase of PDO. The possibility of La Niña redeveloping will become clearer over the next few months.â€

Strictly this is true, as atmospheric circulation anomalies still reflect aspects of La Niña. The subsurface oceanic heat content in the upper parts of the equatorial pacific continued to weaken (FIG.1) with strengthening subsurface anomalies in the east-central pacific (FIG.2), hence the La Niña watch that has been issued.

Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift

As expected, it is still clearly visible to see from present day NOAA satellite images that no improvements have been offered in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift.

The surface horizontal current (0m in depth) should be more comparable to the image in (FIG.3 – August 2009) below than (FIG.4 – August 2011), in order for the UK and Western Europe to benefit from this valuable heat source.

I clearly stated in early August 2010 that “the strength of the current seemed to be in a position that would no longer feed towards the UK or Northern Europe, due to a breakage that appeared in the gulf loop currentâ€. I have also clearly stated in many of my posts that “if nothing improved soon in regards to the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic drift, that this would begin to alter the climate of the UK, especially more so in winterâ€.

Even at depths of (100m) nothing improves in (FIG.5) below. This is especially important if we compare this to the surface horizontal current of (0m) in 2009 in (FIG.3) below.

Solar Activity

One of the main factors I have strongly emphasised on within my forecasts, is my thesis on future levels of low solar activity.

31^st January 2011

Geomagnetic activity is minimal, this will result in extra cloud cover and alter temperatures, with further repercussions of prolonged periods of low solar activity in the future, that could see sunspots vanish.

15^th November 2010

The will also have future effects on further periods of prolonged low solar activity.

19^th September 2010

This has future effects on further periods of low solar activity, which means more spotless days and more prolonged periods of low solar activity.

Recent scientific research from the National Solar Observatory (NSO), strongly indicate that the next 11 year solar cycle, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all. Although some sunspots are visible at present (FIG.6), solar activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be and according to all NASA's predictions to date. I stated in April 2009 that

“David Hathaway is a well respected solar physicist for NASA, who recently reported that there was nothing wrong with the sun on the highly respected NASA website. He stated that the average length of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. In October 2008 this was 145 months and the standard deviation of 14 months was officially over, which means we are now 6 months (April 2009) outside of his prediction. Although Hathaway suggests that the current solar cycle does not worry him, anticipating many more spotless days before a return to solar max conditions in around 2012? His theories appear very confusing for a scientist who has claimed to of cracked the suns conveyor belt as far back as 1890.â€

Since then NASA and Hathaway have admitted that they were wrong about their predictions in a new scientist article in June 2010. Hathaway also recently stated that we will not reach the 150-200 sunspots as they predicted in 2006, we will instead be heading for a drastic decline that will place us in the lowest sunspot cycle in centuries. As I have stated before this will have future repercussions on further periods of prolonged low solar activity.

The low solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will once again influence the pattern of the jet stream this winter due to the cooling of the stratosphere. This will block warm air from reaching the UK and create more moisture in terms of snowfall. When high pressure builds towards Greenland (Greenland High) this allows extremely cold easterlies or north-easterlies to develop.

Combined with the other factors that I have covered, this will result in an early start to winter with prolonged periods of cold and widespread heavy snowfall that will see many parts of Scotland/Scottish Highlands, Northern Ireland, North-east England, and Northern England get particularly hard hit throughout. I still expect to see records broken with widespread disruption from snowfall that will once again be hugely underestimated by others.

FIG.6 NASA (7^th Aug 2011)

I posted this satellite image back in January 2010 below (FIG.7) and stated that “this is most probably a taste of our near future in the UK.â€

Then this happened in December 2010, only 11 months later (FIG.

I will not be surprised when I can post another satellite image similar to these for the 2011-2012 UK winter.

Our Winter 2011-2012 Publications

Here we have links to what must be the earliest ever publications in regards to an upcoming UK winter below. Maybe this tells us all something?

http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/News/No-sun-and-a-severe-weather-warning-21062011.htm

http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/expert_warns_arctic_winters_on_the_way_1_2826532

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/severe-weather-warning-issued-for-winter-2011-12/20748.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2011/jun/22/winter-forecast-sharrow-bay-miller-howe-tesco-stockton-on-tees-campaign-for-wool

http://www.naturalnews.com/033178_radical_weather_extremes.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/idUS77740+13-Jun-2011+BW20110613

And finally here is some food for thought to leave you all with. The Met Office is to be investigated by MPs following the outcry over the barbecue summer and continuing questions over climate change. The Met office has also come under extreme scrutiny after handing out up to £1.5 million in bonuses, yet they don't issue long range forecasts?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8648215/MPs-inquiry-into-Met-Office.html

Please feel free to check any of the statements that I have made previously within my past forecasts/blog.