Autumn 2011

[EML Network]

Well Aurora Storm and I were just discussing last night what we thought might happen this coming winter last night and we feel that with a summer reminiscent of the past 3 we could well be heading for sustained northern blocking as this seems to be the default pattern for most of the year and therfore another cold snowy one.The weather here reverted to its recent summer pattern in late May early June when since when we have had only about eight 24 hour dry periods in which to make hay or spray. Another observation to make is the amount of severe thunder we have had both this July and last December is ther anything to read into this?

Today it feels like early autumn with bright blue skies and cumulus cloud moving in on a cool east wind ideal for stacking hay and a sunset that coloured the clouds pink, a real winter sunset. Superb visibilities to the north with none of that humid hazy air of last week. Another thing we will watch for is the first lying snow above 3000feet if this arrives on or before the autumn equinox about the the third week in September then I think that will be another pointer to a cold winter.Just to add another comment I see snow flurries have arrived on the weather forecast for Svalbard so the cool down has started!!!!!

On the above basis a new set of winter tyres have been ordered for the car and we will fill all the diesel and oil tanks in the autumn and commence autumn operations on the farm earlier if we can. we could of course be totally wrong but given the last two winters at least we will be prepared.

Agreed today really did feel very autumnal , was walking the dogs on the hills, and it had the whole smell, and sense of an autumnal day, probably for the first time this year (for me anyway), a cold winter ahead ?? I really think it's just too early to say, at this stage.

one thing is for sure, the past 3 Aprils have been unusually hot (especially this one), and were all followed winters with widespread snow events at one time or another, so i'm leaning more towards a repeat of that this winter, in some form or another than not, but this doesn't neccessarily mean winter overall will be cold, I just think we stand a better chance again this year of all seeing some widespread snow at some point, than in years prior to 2008

[Wales123098]

Getting excited now, spring came early for nature and auturm seems to be coming early. Loads of berries and the fruit on my tree which I planted September last year which has see amazing growth this year have turned red. Il be glad to get summer out of the way, I hate summer, warm humid sweaty weather. Not being able to do much because it's too warm. Favourite season coming up (Y) Im going to go for an average and wet auturm, not based on anything, just how I see it. Hoping for some nice windy weather. Then a slightly colder than average Winter with a lot of the snow in December, followed by a slightly above average January then a cold snowy Feb.

Edited August 12, 2011 by Wales123098

[Aaron]

Feeling very Autumnal, especially yesterday. Went for a walk around the local park/countryside, leaves falling off trees, damp, lots of puddles, muddy. Saw some lovely berries in my garden too. Of course this has no effect on winter, but still, gives us some hope!

Edited August 12, 2011 by aaron

[Dorsetbred]

Always an interesting read on here, as to what people think may be round the corner. I usually read this to see what early signs can be found as summer seeps away.

Keep posting (LOTS that's you too!) as it's important to watch all the signs, for the seasons change.

Now, shall I buy those car snow socks that I opted not to last year, even with a trip to Glasgow & back at christmas I made it away without? Can I get away with it two years running I wonder?

[summer blizzard]

Just been browing the Arctic Occilation data and June recorded the 4th most negative -AO value on record (the most negative June being 2009).

As is stands, August also has a very good chance of being up the list.

Looking at the data, it appears that there may have been indications for a cold 2009/2010 winter all along. 2009 broke records for the most -AO June, July, October and December. The following February was of course the most negative -AO month on record.

[NorthernRab]

A Winter's Tale Long Range Forecast Warning: December 2011

Maximum Snow Depths in December:

Key:

Yellow = 5-10cm

Light Orange = 10-15cm

Dark Orange = 15-20cm

Red = 25-30cm

Dark Redish = 30-40cm

Black = 40cm+

My opinion is very likely to change between now and then however at the moment I feel with the likelyhood of northern blocking to happen after a periods of atlantic lows during the autumn is quite likely.

The map shows northern and eastern areas most likely to be hit by frequent and heavy snow showers. The further south and west you are the less likely to be hit by snow showers.

Although my forecast for January is issued next month, I will have a shot at a brief summery of January and February:

Winter 2011/2012:

DEC 2011:

Well Below Average temperatures and heavy snow at times. Two significant and prolonged cold spells.

JAN 2012:

Slightly Below Average and Below Average for northern and eastern places. Milder to begin with before another significant cold snap arrives. Perhaps some more sharp cold snaps inbetween milder spells later on.

FEB 2012:

Average to slightly below average. A very dry month after a wet and cool January. A relatively significant cold snap during the first third of the month. High Pressure to dominate most of the month. Some significant battleground snowfalls in Scotland to finish the winter.

Maximum snow depths in Angus deeper than Drumochter etc?! Really?

[Norrance]

Maximum snow depths in Angus deeper than Drumochter etc?! Really?

Would only happen with a February 1947 type set up with persistent Easterlies.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Norrance

[A Winter's Tale]

Maximum snow depths in Angus deeper than Drumochter etc?! Really?

I would imagine that the Drumochter Pass, Strathspey, Southern and Eastern Grampians would get large amount of snow. However, I expect the region of Highland council overall to have smaller snow depths than Eastern Areas due to the Mountains and Geographical Position. If less than a third of that region had snow depths comparable or greater than Angus, you would have take the other two thirds of land into count and the Highland region is a massive area. Anyway, my forecast is just for fun based on my instincts and interpetation of recent weather patterns and factors.

[damianslaw]

What's the betting once again September delivers much more in the way of prolonged settled weather than we saw at any stage during the summer. Recent Septembers in the main have been preety good on the sunhine and settled weather stakes, with some stunners like 2005, 2006. The first half of Sept on average delivers very benign weather.

Whilst I slowly move into autumn mode from mid august onwards, I always say autumn doesn't truly get going until the autumn equinox with conditions prior to then on average often warmer than a fair portion of June especially during the day.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.

The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.

Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.

Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.

Re solar actiivity, you are getting it wrong. We are approaching maxima BUT the maxima is so weak it is unlikely to have a big warming effect, if any.

Re the jetstream, whether its woken or not, for this time of year it is a fair way south of where it should be and any natural seasonal southward shift from its current position would not induce mild conditions.

At present the early indications are that a cold winter with an extreme month is on the cards again. La Nina did control the latter half of winter...if it doesn't materialise this winter......it will be interesting.

BFTP

[Snowyowl9]

Not surprising theres a beyond summer thread as really it has been unmemorable this summer.

July for a change has turned out to be the best month with 2 spells of 5 dry days amazing and more sun(no heatwave here this summer at all maybe)25c was the highest temp in june,I can`t see august looking very good on the charts.

The only notable thing this year is how very wet in the north and here it`s very dry the brook went dry in July so the exceptionally dry spring did that.

Driest spring/summer since 1995 maybe since 1990/91.

Could be the coolest summer for 20 years.

[Gavin P]

What's the betting once again September delivers much more in the way of prolonged settled weather than we saw at any stage during the summer. Recent Septembers in the main have been preety good on the sunhine and settled weather stakes, with some stunners like 2005, 2006. The first half of Sept on average delivers very benign weather.

Whilst I slowly move into autumn mode from mid august onwards, I always say autumn doesn't truly get going until the autumn equinox with conditions prior to then on average often warmer than a fair portion of June especially during the day.

CFS seems to be painting an unsettled picture quite consistently for September. Of course, we know CFS is unreliable and experimental, as all long range models are, but if its got the pattern right, the most unsettled September for a long time (perhaps 2000?) awaits most of us.

Re solar actiivity, you are getting it wrong. We are approaching maxima BUT the maxima is so weak it is unlikely to have a big warming effect, if any.

Re the jetstream, whether its woken or not, for this time of year it is a fair way south of where it should be and any natural seasonal southward shift from its current position would not induce mild conditions.

At present the early indications are that a cold winter with an extreme month is on the cards again. La Nina did control the latter half of winter...if it doesn't materialise this winter......it will be interesting.

BFTP

This is the point most people don't understand about solar activity. A lot of people think solar maxima = zonal, solar minima = blocked. It really isn't as linear as that however. Whats most important is how active these maximas and minimas are. A very weak maxima in effect is hardly any differant than a minima. By contrast a very intense maxima followed by a weak minima would probably mean the effect of the minima is very much negated. Its the stregnth of the cycles that matters most and the culmuative effect.

Regarding La Nina, it very much looks to me as though we're heading into weak La Nina winter territory. Weak La Nina is historically the most favourable state to be in if your looking for a cold winter. Though obviously there are no gurantees.

Not surprising theres a beyond summer thread as really it has been unmemorable this summer.

.

Its really has been a very dreary summer it must be said.

Edited August 14, 2011 by Gavin P

[Paul]

Just for fun, the cold Feb pattern shown by the CFS since last month won't go away ..

[A Winter's Tale]

Just for fun, the cold Feb pattern shown by the CFS since last month won't go away ..

That looks nice!

I do feel that we will see a notably cold month this winter and I feel we are likely to see this early in the winter, just as how Spring arrived early, summer arrived very early and Autumn arrived early - I really do feel that by the end of November it will feel positively wintry.

On the other hand we may see January or February being the cold month rather than December so who knows.

The intensity and how prolonged any signifcant cold spell(s) is another matter.

What I would like to see this time round is two very cold months. Preferably, I would like to see a major cold spell starting in early to mid December and lasting towards the New Year, with a mixture of weather following for the half - two thirds of the month before another signifcant cold spell arrives and lasts into February.

The probability of a cold spell among the lines of something between Feb 2009 and Dec 2010 is pretty likely in my opinion. The question is what the winter will be as a whole? Will the remainder be mild; a bit of cold and mild; or cold?

If Anyone who has got stats, fact and historical data could post something about two (or more) sub zero months in one winter; two or more notable - brief or prolonged cold spells and to compare it to below average winters, months etc, the frequency and gaps between winters...

It would be interesting to find out - although the chances of this winter having two major cold spells isn't anywhere near as likely as the one.

[Robbie Garrett]

..............

..............

But wasn't November and December officially the coldest since 1983 and the coldest in over 100 years respectively? I can't remember anymore snowfall down in London after the December snowfall, but remember it remaining pretty cold for a while, thawing in early January (still remember ice/snow in February at Biggin Hill)

What would be interesting is to see if the high pressure starts to block again this winter, and where it is relative to last years block, that would give us a definitive idea of how cold this winter is going to be.

Are we not scientifically overdue an ice age?

[snowlover2009]

Just for fun, the cold Feb pattern shown by the CFS since last month won't go away ..

nice, you have teased us twice with those feb charts, what do dec and jan hint at?

[snowlover2009]

Anyway, I believe Dec and Feb are going to be the coldest months, with a wet and cool autumn, with some notable storms to hopefully look forward to.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

CFS seems to be painting an unsettled picture quite consistently for September. Of course, we know CFS is unreliable and experimental, as all long range models are, but if its got the pattern right, the most unsettled September for a long time (perhaps 2000?) awaits most of us.

That will be interesting. I've been looking at the SST signal in the Pacific and the PDO looks like going into a less -ve phase and thus I suspect that we will enter a phase where the NAO becomes more neutral or even +ve? Of course there'll need to be a bit more consistency from the PDO signal for it to really impact but its worth looking at and seeing how it pans out. It is my thoughts that the perturbation cycle we entered in Feb 2007 and the -ve PDO phase encourages La Nina domination and also encourages a more prevalent -ve NAO state. We have seen this with the jet readily shifting south too. It is important that looking over the last century that we won't and don't experience permanent La Ninas and -ve NAO but they are more prevalent and we will experience +ve NAO periods and El Ninos.

On that basis I think CFS is onto something, but the signal must remain in place.

Has anyone got update on current Nino position. Are we seeing a hint of La Nina returning? The waters near central america seem to be cooling Pacific side?

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Has anyone seen the latest Roeder's charts? I have lost the link assuming they are still producing long range anomaly charts.

Edited August 15, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Summer Sun]

The latest PWS Long range forecast is out, Great for Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland (If you like Snow and cold weather). Drier than average for most other parts untill February, March could be warmer than average but wetter in some areas.

Winter/Spring 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire. These projections are for 'general expected theme' only. Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

December 2011

Generally colder than average.

On the average or drier than average for most parts, bar Northern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England.

White Christmas: 38%

January 2012

Colder than average generally especially at the start and end of the month. Significantly colder than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, North East England, Eastern England.

Drier than average for many areas, bar Scotland and North East England.

February 2012

Colder than average. Especially early month and again late month.

Wetter than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, Eastern England, Midlands.

March 2012

Warmer than average for Southern and South Eastern England. Slightly warmer than the average elsewhere.

Wetter than average for the South, Central, and West of the UK.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Monday August 15th 2011

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

[Radiating Dendrite]

The latest PWS Long range forecast is out, Great for Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland (If you like Snow and cold weather). Drier than average for most other parts untill February, March could be warmer than average but wetter in some areas.

Winter/Spring 2012

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire. These projections are for 'general expected theme' only. Unless stated, averages apply nationwide for UK and Eire.

December 2011

Generally colder than average.

On the average or drier than average for most parts, bar Northern Ireland, Scotland, Northern England.

White Christmas: 38%

January 2012

Colder than average generally especially at the start and end of the month. Significantly colder than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, North East England, Eastern England.

Drier than average for many areas, bar Scotland and North East England.

February 2012

Colder than average. Especially early month and again late month.

Wetter than average for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, Eastern England, Midlands.

March 2012

Warmer than average for Southern and South Eastern England. Slightly warmer than the average elsewhere.

Wetter than average for the South, Central, and West of the UK.

Serena Skye

Contributing Weather Forecaster

Monday August 15th 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

Another one for the bin

I would not believe a word that PWS said, even it said freezing cold!

[Gavin P]

Has anyone seen the latest Roeder's charts? I have lost the link assuming they are still producing long range anomaly charts.

This is the last active link I have for Roeder;

http://www.climaprog.de/website1001001.htm

Unfortunatey it no longer works. If/When he returns it will be with a link similar to this, so probably worth keeping it.

[Cymro]

PWS waste of time. Perhaps im biased but they never not once mention Wales in their forecasts its either West UK or nothing, now such a creditable weather forecaster wouldn't do this hence, I straight away rubbish their forecasts especially with their ludicrous 38% chance of White Christmas nonsense.

[damianslaw]

I think we need a separate thread to discuss Autumn 2011. The beyond summer thread is fast becoming a winter 2011 thread.

We are only 2 weeks away from the start of Autumn and it would be good to see some forecasts and thoughts for the season as a whole. There does tend to be a tendancy for many to quickly start thinking about winter around now whilst forgetting we have a whole season of autumn to get through.

I find autumn always very tricky season to call, much trickier than winter or summer for that matter, thought slightly less tricky than fickle spring.

Based on no scientific evidence whatsoever, I predict the following:

Sept - a mixed month average rainfall and sunshine with slightly higher than average temps. Perhaps at leastone lenghty dry settled spell at some stage thanks to strong heights overhead.

Oct - a benign month with lots of dry settled weather and rather mild most of the time.

Nov - a mixed month often wet in the north slightly colder than average but nothing exceptional.

In overview a rather typical autumn but with a fairly mild october. Few storms again with onus on settled conditions rather than unsettled conditions.

Edited August 15, 2011 by damianslaw

[EML Network]

Here's my thought's on the coming Autumn. or ''prediction'' / ''forecast'', whichever terms best suites

September : Temperatures on the whole pretty average, a CET slightly above average in the South, offset by slightly cooler than average CET in the North.

Lot's of early morning Mist and Fog , and the first widespread frosts of the autumn might come sooner than normal for many parts of the country.

Sunshine amounts normal in the south, and below normal in the north, some areas of the north might see several overcast days in a row.

Above average rainfall in the North, and West, driest in the South and especially the ESE.

I forsee a generally gloomy month, interspersed with a few days of back to back sunshine, showery, but no lengthy spells of rain (for most of us)

October : Wet, Windy, stormy, especially in the West and the South.

Low Pressure Dominating for much of the month in the South, high pressure not too far away from the north.

Wettest in the South , Driest (for once) in the North and NW.

Temperatures above normal in the South, and East, about average in the North, perhaps below in the NW

Some potentially extreme storms for the West , SW, S, and Southern Central England especially in the final 3rd of the month.

November : Generally average for the vast majority , both in terms of sunshine amounts, rainfall, and temperature.

A brief early cold snap for the NE.

Again a quite windy month, rainfall although generally normal, will come in bowts...instead of showers, some of us might see some prolonged periods of rain, where as others will stay dry.

Very much a ''Hit and Miss'' month