Summer Forecast Continued.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Please carry on here - discussing the topic!

[Swave Snow]

If I am right, I do recall recently GP altering his thoughts and suggesting that the forecast could be delayed.

If I may also speak up, I find a lot of moaning in all the forums about the current weather we are experiencing UK wide. The immediate prospects are not good if you want Dry and Warmth as most can tell from the short range agreement in the models.

Just a few days ago and for quite a few weeks prior to that, many experienced model watchers and meteorological people were suggesting that the grasp the models had on our current synoptics was not good at all.

Now we seem to be in a rut with a southerly diving jet stream.

What I don't understand is why people cannot accept that there is still a good possibility that GP thoughts may very well pan out correctly as a shift in the pattern could allow High pressure to re assert itself.

We cannot rely on our current synoptics to last indefinitely or for large parts of our Summer to come, there is heat around and even with our low pressures all over the place they will inevitably drag up warm air from the south or the south west or even the south east or the east. And then there could be High pressure cells which could bring us warmth from almost any direction as the air will be advected from where the High comes from.

Basically it is impossible to write off the summer forecast at this early early stage.

And I think if people have followed GP forecast over the past few years including through the winter months they would have a lot more respect for this gifted individual

[rob48]

If I am right, I do recall recently GP altering his thoughts and suggesting that the forecast could be delayed.

If I may also speak up, I find a lot of moaning in all the forums about the current weather we are experiencing UK wide. The immediate prospects are not good if you want Dry and Warmth as most can tell from the short range agreement in the models.

Just a few days ago and for quite a few weeks prior to that, many experienced model watchers and meteorological people were suggesting that the grasp the models had on our current synoptics was not good at all.

Now we seem to be in a rut with a southerly diving jet stream.

What I don't understand is why people cannot accept that there is still a good possibility that GP thoughts may very well pan out correctly as a shift in the pattern could allow High pressure to re assert itself.

We cannot rely on our current synoptics to last indefinitely or for large parts of our Summer to come, there is heat around and even with our low pressures all over the place they will inevitably drag up warm air from the south or the south west or even the south east or the east. And then there could be High pressure cells which could bring us warmth from almost any direction as the air will be advected from where the High comes from.

Basically it is impossible to write off the summer forecast at this early early stage.

And I think if people have followed GP forecast over the past few years including through the winter months they would have a lot more respect for this gifted individual

How can it be delayed, summer is well underway?

[johnholmes]

why don't you read what GP posted?

I believe he suggested something along the lines of the FORECAST time scale may be delayed.

He did not suggest he could either stop either the weather or the seasons!

the actual text for those interested in what was posted not an interpretation of them either by me or anyone else

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast;sess=

Edited June 10, 2011 by johnholmes

[rob48]

why don't you read what GP posted?

I believe he suggested something along the lines of the FORECAST time scale may be delayed.

He did not suggest he could either stop either the weather or the seasons!

the actual text for those interested in what was posted not an interpretation of them either by me or anyone else

http://www.netweathe...r-forecast;sess=

Too many summer forecasts to keep track of.

[jethro]

Too many summer forecasts to keep track of.

As this is a thread to discuss one specific one, it shouldn't be too difficult.

[rob48]

As this is a thread to discuss one specific one, it shouldn't be too difficult.

Agreed.

But the thread title says continued which is a continuation of a thread which originally discussed a forecast that no longer appears to exist.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Oh dear - quite a poor start to the tread I think.

I've got an idea - why don't we discuss the topic?

[Gavin P]

Which summer forecast are we discussing now? The original forecast or the revised one?

I ask because Paul Hudson has blogged about the prospect of a June wash-out and within the article he says this;

"We all remember the blaze of headlines at the end of May that this summer was likely to be as hot and sunny as the summer of 1976 - arguably the best and most memorable summer of the 20th century - leaving expectations across the country sky high that at long last we might be in for a barbeque summer.

These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather.

They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK.'

Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly.

The Met Office is still haunted by their now infamous 'barbecue summer' forecast of 2009.

Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml

Edited June 10, 2011 by Gavin P

[Radiating Dendrite]

Which summer forecast are we discussing now? The original forecast or the revised one?

I ask because Paul Hudson has blogged about the prospect of a June wash-out and within the article he says this;

"We all remember the blaze of headlines at the end of May that this summer was likely to be as hot and sunny as the summer of 1976 - arguably the best and most memorable summer of the 20th century - leaving expectations across the country sky high that at long last we might be in for a barbeque summer.

These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather.

They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK.'

Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly.

The Met Office is still haunted by their now infamous 'barbecue summer' forecast of 2009.

Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten."

http://www.bbc.co.uk...d-up-a-wa.shtml

Wow, that is a bit of a kick in the teeth.

A bit early to be making predictions 10 days into summer though, especially if July is HOT!

[Harry]

Which summer forecast are we discussing now? The original forecast or the revised one?

I ask because Paul Hudson has blogged about the prospect of a June wash-out and within the article he says this;

"We all remember the blaze of headlines at the end of May that this summer was likely to be as hot and sunny as the summer of 1976 - arguably the best and most memorable summer of the 20th century - leaving expectations across the country sky high that at long last we might be in for a barbeque summer.

These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather.

They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK.'

Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly.

The Met Office is still haunted by their now infamous 'barbecue summer' forecast of 2009.

Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml

It's only the 10th June...

[rob48]

It's only the 10th June...

And were on the 2nd forecast already.

Any chance my point in the locked thread comparing it to crewewcold's winter LRF will be addressed?

[Harry]

And were on the 2nd forecast already.

Any chance my point in the locked thread comparing it to crewewcold's winter LRF will be addressed?

Yeah, a month after the first! No matter how good technology gets, LRF's will ALWAYS require amending after a MONTH...sometimes slightly, sometimes substantially. But as short range forecasts have to change hourly, medium range pretty much daily, I think an LRF being amended after a month is well within the realms of acceptability? Surely?

We didn't rubbish GP's LRF for the previous winter, because it was pretty accurate. Just because the summer one hasn't gone to plan (SO FAR) is insufficient grounds to question the applicability of them...if we question the validity of forecasts because they have to change, then we really not ought to bother with them...short, medium and long range at all!

Edited June 10, 2011 by Harry

[Gavin P]

"Can someone please clarify that it is now the norm to ammend LRFs?

Anyone looking at last winter's threads would notice a winter LRF, issued 20th Nov by crewecold:

http://forum.netweat...lds-winter-lrf/

As far as I can discover there was no ammendment to this LRF at any stage, it stood or fell in its entirity.

Indeed, and what is particularly pertinent, is Post #8, by a certain Mr J Holmes:

Posted 17 November 2010 - 08:43

well explained and a lot of work gone into it-result known 1 March!

Now maybe I'm a bit slow here, but that suggests to me that there won't be any changes to that LRF and it will be judged on its merits, at the END of the forecast period, over three months later.

In fact, no virtues of humilty and adaptability being lauded on this one.

Obviously, I still haven't "got it", but I'm sure it won't be long until the inconsistent judgements applied to this and the summer "LRF" will be explained to me."

Rob, I'll have a go at answering.

My answer would be that there has always been two strands of thought regarding LRF's.

1. You put you LRF out there and leave it to be judged at the end of the season, be it good or bad.

2. You put your LRF out there, see how things develop over time and then amend it as the facts develop - More of a rolling LRF if you like.

Some people don't see the point of allowing an LRF to stand if when its clearly hopelessly wrong. The Met Office always took this view. As did Ian Brown, Metcheck and Netweather.

Others think that changing an LRF as you go along defeats the object of doing an LRF in the first place. TheWeatherOutlook have always taken that view. As has Joe B'astardi and as did someone called Tom Presutti who was a well known long ranger back in the day.

I don't say theres a right or wrong answer to this. Ultimately its down to the preference of the forecaster.

My own preference is for putting your forecast out there and letting it stand, because its easier to verify correct and incorrect forecasts that way. If your constantly doing updates it can be hard to track down what the original forecast actually was - Though that won't be a problem in the case of Netweathers summer forecast I don't think.

Edited June 10, 2011 by Gavin P

[rob48]

Yeah, a month after the first! No matter how good technology gets, LRF's will ALWAYS require amending after a MONTH...sometimes slightly, sometimes substantially. But as short range forecasts have to change hourly, medium range pretty much daily, I think an LRF being amended after a month is well within the realms of acceptability? Surely?

That was my point (which has been successfully ignored) CC's winter LRF posted 20th Nov, was told he'd know the result on 1 March, no amendments there.

So, surely not, in that instance.

Why the difference?

Edit:

Just seen your reply Gavin.

Thank you very much.

Edited June 10, 2011 by rob48

[Summer Sun]

Following on from Netweather's summer forecast predicition, the bbc's Paul Hudson has today released his blog,

June's weather looks set to deteriorate further as low pressure intensifies its grip across the UK. The timing couldn't be more awkward for the Environment Agency who this morning issued a drought order for parts of Eastern England. Only hours later, the Met Office issued yellow warnings in parts of the country, including drought-order hit Lincolnshire, for prolonged thundery downpours that could produce 25-45mm in places, with the associated risk of localised flooding.

Just as the atmosphere was 'blocked' through March and April, with persistent areas of high pressure that led to the dry conditions, the atmosphere looks set to stay stuck in a rut of persistent areas of low pressure, possibly for much of the rest of June. On Sunday a deep area of low pressure will bring rain sweeping across the UK, including drought-hit Eastern England. A respite will follow into next week with a little ridge of high pressure, before another area of low pressure swings back in from the west bringing more rain to many areas later in the week.

It also highlights once more the dangers of long range forecasting. These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather. They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK. 'Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly.

Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten.

Is Mr Hudson having a dig at Netweather?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml

[TEITS]

It's only the 10th June...

Whilst that is true, the models do predict a bleak outlook. The pattern we are in means we're unlikely to wake up one morning and view the models at +144 and witness a massive turnaround showing a heatwave. More likely we going to need to see a change within F.I of the model output.

So with this in mind I feel its safe to assume the weather is going to remain unsettled until at least the 20th June and possibly into the last week of June. So although I have defended the NW forecast in my previous posts, im afraid June is a complete write off.

[Harry]

Following on from Netweather's summer forecast predicition, the bbc's Paul Hudson has today released his blog,

June's weather looks set to deteriorate further as low pressure intensifies its grip across the UK. The timing couldn't be more awkward for the Environment Agency who this morning issued a drought order for parts of Eastern England. Only hours later, the Met Office issued yellow warnings in parts of the country, including drought-order hit Lincolnshire, for prolonged thundery downpours that could produce 25-45mm in places, with the associated risk of localised flooding.

Just as the atmosphere was 'blocked' through March and April, with persistent areas of high pressure that led to the dry conditions, the atmosphere looks set to stay stuck in a rut of persistent areas of low pressure, possibly for much of the rest of June. On Sunday a deep area of low pressure will bring rain sweeping across the UK, including drought-hit Eastern England. A respite will follow into next week with a little ridge of high pressure, before another area of low pressure swings back in from the west bringing more rain to many areas later in the week.

It also highlights once more the dangers of long range forecasting. These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather. They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK. 'Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly.

Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten.

Is Mr Hudson having a dig at Netweather?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml

Well it appears the wise and wonderful Mr Hudson puts a lot more certainty into forecasts a week ahead than I do...will see if his WEEKLY forecast prevails shall we?

I find it absolutely staggering a fellow forecaster would stick the knife so deep into another!!!! Utterly gobsmacked!

Edited June 10, 2011 by Harry

[Gavin P]

Well it appears the wise and wonderful Mr Hudson puts a lot more certainty into forecasts a week ahead than I do...will see if his WEEKLY forecast prevails shall we?

I find it absolutely staggering a fellow forecaster would stick the knife so deep into another!!!! Utterly gobsmacked!

I don't think Paul Hudson has really said aything *that* outrageous. Piers gets far more stick when his LRF's go down the tubes.

[Harry]

I don't think Paul Hudson has really said aything *that* outrageous. Piers gets far more stick when his LRF's go down the tubes.

Ironically, Piers Corbyn has been pretty much on the money so far (according to Hudson's previous blog)

[IanM]

That was my point (which has been successfully ignored) CC's winter LRF posted 20th Nov, was told he'd know the result on 1 March, no amendments there.

So, surely not, in that instance.

Why the difference?

Edit:

Just seen your reply Gavin.

Thank you very much.

Rob, the main difference being that the Official Netweather LRF is one we control, others posted on the forum are those of members, we don't control them or update them, that's down to the individual involved. And as I have already said, we haven't removed the original forecast, it's there, where it has always been. The update has been published above it, it's not hard to find.... So the forecast as a whole will be reviewed at the end of the summer, and open to review throughout the summer.

[TEITS]

I find it absolutely staggering a fellow forecaster would stick the knife so deep into another!!!! Utterly gobsmacked!

So am I because you would assume a fellow forecaster realises how difficult it is to predict our weather especially long range.

Im of the opinion that even if July, August turn out to be unsettled it wouldn't change my opinion of GP/Net weather forecasts. I can think of many examples where GP has been more right than wrong. Like I said recently if GP was right everytime he would be the richest forecaster on this planet.

If the NW forecast does turn out to be wrong then im sure this will only spur GP into learning more about LRF and especially using teleconnections. This is still a relatively new forecasting technique but in my opinion its the only way of producing LRF.

[rob48]

Rob, the main difference being that the Official Netweather LRF is one we control, others posted on the forum are those of members, we don't control them or update them, that's down to the individual involved. And as I have already said, we haven't removed the original forecast, it's there, where it has always been. The update has been published above it, it's not hard to find.... So the forecast as a whole will be reviewed at the end of the summer, and open to review throughout the summer.

Thank you for that.

I was unaware that LRF's were ever reviewed before they had completed.

As Gavin alluded to in his post, the norm seems to be for them to remain untouched for the period in question, and John Holmes intimated the same in his comment on crewecold's LRF.

Edited June 10, 2011 by rob48

[Summer Sun]

So although I have defended the NW forecast in my previous posts, im afraid June is a complete write off.

Maybe hope at the end of June?

All in FI i know but keep faith the end of June may turn out to be nice who knows.

Edited June 10, 2011 by Gavin D

[johnholmes]

as my name keeps being mentioned by one poster particularly perhaps I should reply?

That was my comment, it was NOT necessarily the official Net Wx stance.

Turning to the larger issue.

My view for what it is worth is two fold

Short range forecasts, 24 hour out to 5-6 days then if its going wrong say so and amend it taking care not to be too clever doing it as one can again end up with egg on ones' face. Explain why its wrong and move on.

Similarly with forecasts based largely on synoptic charts from the main models, say out to 10-15 days, do the same.

A certain amount of common sense is required when doing this. Obviously 24 hour later the forecast can already be amended and is routinely done so by Met and other centres, professional and amateur.

The difficulty comes in the longer period forecasts, a rolling forecast such as UK Met issue, 6-15 and 16-30 days, is not a problem as that moves on 1 day each 24 hours.

With the seasonal or 3 monthly forecast such as Net Wx issue then I'm not sure this method is right. I honestly am not sure whether the initial forecast should be amended or, as in this case, with it obvious that the parameter(s) that were required for the start of the forecast not being in place, a new one be issued. Then how do you link that up to the original, is it amended and an explanation or is a brand new one done again with an explanation. As the amount of work involved is pretty large, much more than the synoptic forecasts even out to say day 15 then its not an easy decision to make. I sympathise with Stewart with this.