Summer Forecast Continued.

[The PIT]

Maybe hope at the end of June?

All in FI i know but keep faith the end of June may turn out to be nice who knows.

Mmm sadly not shades of 76 though.

Classic case of being careful about headlines. If deep FI comes off it will do little to prevent a below average June temp wise which of course crushes the first part of the summer forecast. We all know how FI changes and how rapidly it can change.

Also it's only the 10th of the month so realistically too early to cancel any further summery weather this month. Now if by the next Friday we're looking at similar weather pattern with lasting into the week after then June could be written off.

[mushymanrob]

If I am right, I do recall recently GP altering his thoughts and suggesting that the forecast could be delayed.

If I may also speak up, I find a lot of moaning in all the forums about the current weather we are experiencing UK wide. The immediate prospects are not good if you want Dry and Warmth as most can tell from the short range agreement in the models.

Just a few days ago and for quite a few weeks prior to that, many experienced model watchers and meteorological people were suggesting that the grasp the models had on our current synoptics was not good at all.

Now we seem to be in a rut with a southerly diving jet stream.

What I don't understand is why people cannot accept that there is still a good possibility that GP thoughts may very well pan out correctly as a shift in the pattern could allow High pressure to re assert itself.

We cannot rely on our current synoptics to last indefinitely or for large parts of our Summer to come, there is heat around and even with our low pressures all over the place they will inevitably drag up warm air from the south or the south west or even the south east or the east. And then there could be High pressure cells which could bring us warmth from almost any direction as the air will be advected from where the High comes from.

Basically it is impossible to write off the summer forecast at this early early stage.

And I think if people have followed GP forecast over the past few years including through the winter months they would have a lot more respect for this gifted individual

the reason we can write off the forecast is because it wasnt based on a set of likely random events, but it was based on an expected sequence of events. so if it goes wrong at the begining, like lining balls up at snooker, its unlikely to return to being right later. HOWEVER it doesnt mean that we wont get any heat this summer, it might come by another route.

Whilst that is true, the models do predict a bleak outlook. The pattern we are in means we're unlikely to wake up one morning and view the models at +144 and witness a massive turnaround showing a heatwave. More likely we going to need to see a change within F.I of the model output.

So with this in mind I feel its safe to assume the weather is going to remain unsettled until at least the 20th June and possibly into the last week of June. So although I have defended the NW forecast in my previous posts, im afraid June is a complete write off.

Im of the opinion that even if July, August turn out to be unsettled it wouldn't change my opinion of GP/Net weather forecasts. I can think of many examples where GP has been more right than wrong. Like I said recently if GP was right everytime he would be the richest forecaster on this planet.

If the NW forecast does turn out to be wrong then im sure this will only spur GP into learning more about LRF and especially using teleconnections. This is still a relatively new forecasting technique but in my opinion its the only way of producing LRF.

i fully agree with these posts dave...

and to add, currently the synoptical outlook is gradually moving away from any possible return to settled conditions, i wouldnt be surprised if we can forget june althogether now for any proper settled/warm/sunny spell.

[rob48]

Well it appears the wise and wonderful Mr Hudson puts a lot more certainty into forecasts a week ahead than I do...will see if his WEEKLY forecast prevails shall we?

I find it absolutely staggering a fellow forecaster would stick the knife so deep into another!!!! Utterly gobsmacked!

I wouldn't be too shocked.

Joe B, Brian Gaze, PiersC and metcheck have all had some stick on here.

as my name keeps being mentioned by one poster particularly perhaps I should reply?

That was my comment, it was NOT necessarily the official Net Wx stance.

Turning to the larger issue.

My view for what it is worth is two fold

Short range forecasts, 24 hour out to 5-6 days then if its going wrong say so and amend it taking care not to be too clever doing it as one can again end up with egg on ones' face. Explain why its wrong and move on.

Similarly with forecasts based largely on synoptic charts from the main models, say out to 10-15 days, do the same.

A certain amount of common sense is required when doing this. Obviously 24 hour later the forecast can already be amended and is routinely done so by Met and other centres, professional and amateur.

The difficulty comes in the longer period forecasts, a rolling forecast such as UK Met issue, 6-15 and 16-30 days, is not a problem as that moves on 1 day each 24 hours.

With the seasonal or 3 monthly forecast such as Net Wx issue then I'm not sure this method is right. I honestly am not sure whether the initial forecast should be amended or, as in this case, with it obvious that the parameter(s) that were required for the start of the forecast not being in place, a new one be issued. Then how do you link that up to the original, is it amended and an explanation or is a brand new one done again with an explanation. As the amount of work involved is pretty large, much more than the synoptic forecasts even out to say day 15 then its not an easy decision to make. I sympathise with Stewart with this.

Good of you to reply John.

As it happens I agree with all of what you've put, except I am more convinced that LRF's shouldn't be amended.

Isn't open dialogue much better and more constructive than whining about bans?

[chionomaniac]

the reason we can write off the forecast is because it wasnt based on a set of likely random events, but it was based on an expected sequence of events. so if it goes wrong at the begining, like lining balls up at snooker, its unlikely to return to being right later. HOWEVER it doesnt mean that we wont get any heat this summer, it might come by another route.

.

I think that this is a very valid point and one that I was about to make.

If your forecast is based, say for example, that El Nino, will not engage the atmosphere until August and in fact this occurs far earlier than you thought then the next in the chain of events is unlikely to occur.

It is very much a case that a few dominoes have been removed at the start of the rally and that these were the crucial ones. A few missing here and there later on would not have mattered too much.

[rob48]

I think that this is a very valid point and one that I was about to make.

If your forecast is based, say for example, that El Nino, will not engage the atmosphere until August and in fact this occurs far earlier than you thought then the next in the chain of events is unlikely to occur.

It is very much a case that a few dominoes have been removed at the start of the rally and that these were the crucial ones. A few missing here and there later on would not have mattered too much.

Which is exactly the one weather12 and i were trying to make yesterday.

[jimbo36]

won't be the first or last time that an LRF will have to be revised. a forecast is a forecast, no-one ever claims it to be set in stone. All the people that matter still have faith in NW and GP. The on'es that do all the slagging tend to be the ones that have their own trumpet to blow and like politicians, only make a name for themselves by slating the opposition.

Netweather rools KO....sorry discovered i was dyslexic when i went to a toga party dressed as a goat.....

Edited June 10, 2011 by jimbo36

[Weather-history]

the reason we can write off the forecast is because it wasnt based on a set of likely random events, but it was based on an expected sequence of events. so if it goes wrong at the begining, like lining balls up at snooker, its unlikely to return to being right later. HOWEVER it doesnt mean that we wont get any heat this summer, it might come by another route.

By logic, the first month of a three month forecast should be the most accurate and if it isn't but the third month is then there is something not right, IMO and more likely due to random chance.

[Summer Sun]

Well just to prove how cold it is a present there was snow at the top of the Snowdon mountain railway today, summer remains on hold for now, GFS FI shows LP been pushed away on the 21st with HP taking over from the 22nd, but as it's GFS and FI i wouldn't get your hopes up

[mushymanrob]

By logic, the first month of a three month forecast should be the most accurate and if it isn't but the third month is then there is something not right, IMO and more likely due to random chance.

true, and random chance, that great joker card, is a player in the weather pack and cannot be quantified, measured or allowed for.

as for updating lrf's...why not? we get 4 gfs's per day, 2 ecm's and ukmo's , weather isnt set on one route, it changes because of the many variables involved. i see no reason why lrf's shouldnt be updated, it makes perfect sense.

im looking foreward to gp's next thoughts, because few are as knowlegable or accurate as he is, dispite apparently getting june wrong.

id suggest that anybody who thinks they are a waste of time, start a thread on that topic and leave this one for those of us who are interested in them.

[jimbo36]

true, and random chance, that great joker card, is a player in the weather pack and cannot be quantified, measured or allowed for.

as for updating lrf's...why not? we get 4 gfs's per day, 2 ecm's and ukmo's , weather isnt set on one route, it changes because of the many variables involved. i see no reason why lrf's shouldnt be updated, it makes perfect sense.

im looking foreward to gp's next thoughts, because few are as knowlegable or accurate as he is, dispite apparently getting june wrong.

id suggest that anybody who thinks they are a waste of time, start a thread on that topic and leave this one for those of us who are interested in them.

best post so far

[IanM]

Which is exactly the one weather12 and i were trying to make yesterday.

Yep, and you tried a little less, shall we say, aggressively, thanks for that. As a constructive criticism it's something that'll be thrown into the pot once the whole team is able to discuss it in the same timezone, lol

But, and it's a reasonable but, if we issued a LRF then issued a new one rather than updating the previous one we'd be accused of trying to sweep the previous forecast under the carpet. It was my decision alone to publish the update as it stands, using GP's input, and to his credit he didn't ask for a different slant or the original forecast to be pulled. He is incredibly busy right now, so I respect both his ability to produce a forecast and at the same time track the huge array of factors that each forecast encompasses while working hard at all hours as well. something that needs to be remembered is forecasts, regardless of their timescale are constantly updated, it's just the LRF's hang around a lot longer than the typical weather forecast we are used to seeing. Watch the Beeb at Breakfast, lunch and tea for that evenings forecast, it'll change more often that you think. That's the nature of forecasting, the trick is to get it right as often as possible, and on this occasion we didn't, that doesn't mean we never got it right before, or never will again, it happens, get over it, learn from it and move on is the attitude we take.

So if the manner in which the update was published was wrong then aim the criticism squarely at me, if the decision to not hide from the original forecast was wrong, then again, my decision alone. The decision to publish the LRF is a team one, and trust me when I say I know just how the poor sod at the Met Office Press Office felt now, but we're big and ugly enough to move forwards and not let this one LRF distract us from doing what we do, and doing it professionally.

anyhow, it's Friday and like most of you I'm hungry and need a beer, enjoy the weekend regardless what the weather brings your way

Ian

[UV-RAY]

And the debate goes on Even though I'm a big fan of GP I do believe his original LRF is bust.. So now he has put out an amended forecast all eyes are focused on this.

Personally I feel there's more than enough time for GP's hot and dry summer to come to fruition, but if by the middle of next month we haven't seen a shift to more settled warmer conditions then the knives will be out ( again ) . Until then I'll watch this space.

[Summer Sun]

The up and coming week will again will again be dominated by low pressure the south and south east / East Anglia look like they'll hold onto high pressure for most of the week.

Small hints of something a little warmer and settled towards next weekend from the south? or yet more LP heading our way?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Metcheck is the biggest joke forecast ive ever seen! gives me snow tomorrow night!

[rob48]

Yep, and you tried a little less, shall we say, aggressively, thanks for that. As a constructive criticism it's something that'll be thrown into the pot once the whole team is able to discuss it in the same timezone, lol

But, and it's a reasonable but, if we issued a LRF then issued a new one rather than updating the previous one we'd be accused of trying to sweep the previous forecast under the carpet. It was my decision alone to publish the update as it stands, using GP's input, and to his credit he didn't ask for a different slant or the original forecast to be pulled. He is incredibly busy right now, so I respect both his ability to produce a forecast and at the same time track the huge array of factors that each forecast encompasses while working hard at all hours as well. something that needs to be remembered is forecasts, regardless of their timescale are constantly updated, it's just the LRF's hang around a lot longer than the typical weather forecast we are used to seeing. Watch the Beeb at Breakfast, lunch and tea for that evenings forecast, it'll change more often that you think. That's the nature of forecasting, the trick is to get it right as often as possible, and on this occasion we didn't, that doesn't mean we never got it right before, or never will again, it happens, get over it, learn from it and move on is the attitude we take.

So if the manner in which the update was published was wrong then aim the criticism squarely at me, if the decision to not hide from the original forecast was wrong, then again, my decision alone. The decision to publish the LRF is a team one, and trust me when I say I know just how the poor sod at the Met Office Press Office felt now, but we're big and ugly enough to move forwards and not let this one LRF distract us from doing what we do, and doing it professionally.

anyhow, it's Friday and like most of you I'm hungry and need a beer, enjoy the weekend regardless what the weather brings your way

Ian

Cheers for that Ian.

If I appeared aggressive I apologise, not my intention, born of frustration most likely.

I meant absolutely no criticism whatsoever at GP. I didn't know then that it was policy to update LRFs. That's cleared up now.

Enjoy your beer, and your weekend.

[William of Walworth]

Small hints of something a little warmer and settled towards next weekend from the south? or yet more LP heading our way?

We have less thn a week for those FI hints to be verified, or Glastonbury (and Wimbledon) are comprehensively screwed.

[tinybill]

We have less thn a week for those FI hints to be verified, or Glastonbury (and Wimbledon) are comprehensively screwed.

well its so dry here in the east it had to happen lol , looks like in the east we just had our summer!!!

Edited June 11, 2011 by tinybill

[Weather-history]

I say what I said last winter, Glacier Point's views and predictions should be taken on board and respected but he's not the be all, end all. There were some people last winter who took his views as sacrosanct, IMO. There was one post which really stuck in my mind, it was like a pilgrim going to a temple of a weather god, praying to them that he will tell the masses what they wanted to hear.

There are other forecasts out there and they should be taken on board as well and weighed against each other. Respect and constructive criticism not slavish devotion and bitter recrimination.

Edited June 11, 2011 by Mr_Data

[William of Walworth]

I agree Mr D, I posted something to similar effect a while ago in the previous summer forecast thread, at the time when doubts were starting to arise seriouly about how early, if at all, GP's (first version) forecast would start to show its hand. I said then that I hoped he hadn't created a rod for his own back and that people wouldn't overcriticise him if things turned out differently.

As one of the biggest fans of (proper!) summer on here I'm obviously disappointed that he had to revise his forecast (which respect to GP, he did honestly and upfront). I'm in great fear that Glastonbury (for us, 18-28 June, we get there early and leave late as we work) will be a disastrous washout, current charts show few if any signs of that being avoided. We just about have time still for there to be a modest turnaround, perhaps enough to kill off the worst rain in the SW, but if signs of improvement don't start to emerge next week, and I'm pessimistic, it's full on wet weather gear time and permanent tiredness through never being able to sit down ,,,, mudbaths are hell, and I watch forecasts at this time of year obsessively hoping for sun.

But I'd never want to blame GP for the forecast going wrong, I respect his knowledge far too much to be able to do that, and I've learnt loads from him which is still valid however the summer turns out.

I guess a modified, shortened version of his earlier forecast MIGHT still turn up in July and August, a bad June followed by a hot rest of summer has been known in previous years (eg 1990?).

Edited June 11, 2011 by William of Walworth

[lukemc]

Talking of years that had a poor June followed by a dramatic improvement in July and August was that the case in 1955 also?

Also was there an element of improment in 1984 too as I think that the best weather then came in August.

Do you think we could have a similar improvement this year as those years certainly show that a "poor" June in the eyes of some can certainly lead to an improvement in conditions later in the summer.

Luke

[ohno]

No summer 2011 will be pretty poor... Once we get stuck in a rut. It stays like that...We have seen that for the last two summers in particular..two good Junes followed by poor Julys and August's..Hopefully the weather fronts will die out and allow high pressure to build in.Later on in the summer..But with the UK summer being short.The longer it takes the less good summer weather we get..The long range forecast says we are in for hotter summers..I think thats wrong we are in for more unsettled summers.

[Backtrack]

I for one have lost complete faith in the forecast.

I know it is just a forecast, and I know I should not of took GP's forecast as written in stone, but I did.

I now feel that any warmth at all will be limited to August. I think July will follow a very similar pattern to June, and I think shades of 2007 would of been a more suited title.

[Summer Sun]

No summer 2011 will be pretty poor... Once we get stuck in a rut. It stays like that...We have seen that for the last two summers in particular..two good Junes followed by poor Julys and August's..Hopefully the weather fronts will die out and allow high pressure to build in.Later on in the summer..But with the UK summer being short.The longer it takes the less good summer weather we get..The long range forecast says we are in for hotter summers..I think thats wrong we are in for more unsettled summers.

All i would add to that is the past 2 years have followed good / warm June's this year June has been cool / wet, apart from 3 day's.

Does anyone know if GP is on holiday as he's not been on the forums since June 08th at 08:19, i hope what's happened so far this summer hasn't made him leave the forum. :unsure:

Edited June 12, 2011 by Gavin D

[ohno]

All i would add to that is the past 2 years have followed good / warm June's this year June has been cool / wet, apart from 3 day's.

Very true! I personally don't think this summer will be a complete right off! as eventually we wiill get some stable air over us.After all it is summer.

I think the weather this year as been more highlighted because of the recent summers have been poor too..I guess we were all hoping for a much improved outlook for 2011..

The last good summer was 2006.Oh well lets hope the second half of july to mid september is alot warmer and more pleasent...

[UV-RAY]

All i would add to that is the past 2 years have followed good / warm June's this year June has been cool / wet, apart from 3 day's.

Does anyone know if GP is on holiday as he's not been on the forums since June 08th at 08:19, i hope what's happened so far this summer hasn't made him leave the forum. :unsure:

Stalker!