Summer Forecast Continued.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight models showing HP putting up a good fight next week and into July, keeping things settled with LP away from us

[k19]

Tonight models showing HP putting up a good fight next week and into July, keeping things settled with LP away from us

Very much so but for a high pressure to stick around it needs to be stronger than what we have been seeing tonight, which if my eyes aren't playing tricks on me (Although they may well be) is a series of ridges from the azores high gaining independence before floating off east. Still it's way out there and i'm sure there will be a few surprises before we get there

[ZONE 51]

We are now starting to see signs or indications of a change in pattern, justs hints showing as we shall see at the weekend-a sign of whats to come? well its quite a battle but it should win-the high should get in the right place at the strength required to keep the atlantic at bay...

[Weather-history]

I just wonder how much GP's pressure anomaly chart in the summer forecast will be out by the end of summer. My guess is not that much and that we will see a steady improvement from here on in, both in the weather and the accuracy of the NW forecast.

It shouldn't really be like that though, the first month by logic should be the most accurate. If it gets more accurate later in the season then there is something not right, IMO.

Anyway, summer 2011 isn't going to go down as the driest summer on record for England and Wales now, 1995 is going to keep that record for another year now.

[Eugene]

Typical summer pattern really ahead for the UK, ridge of HP from the azores high and LP running west to east just to our north, should be pretty dry for southern UK, its a shame people are obsessed with heat and not how sunny and dry the weather could be, even cool 850's aloft translate to very pleasant weather in sunshine in July.

[mushymanrob]

Typical summer pattern really ahead for the UK, ridge of HP from the azores high and LP running west to east just to our north, should be pretty dry for southern UK, its a shame people are obsessed with heat and not how sunny and dry the weather could be, even cool 850's aloft translate to very pleasant weather in sunshine in July.

.... and in winter its a shame some people are obsessed with snowfall and not how sunny a frosty day could be... <_<

in winter people look for snow, in summer its heat.

[TonyH]

Indeed boring limited attitude of the masses.

[UV-RAY]

The fat lady is now getting ready, two more weeks and if we haven't seen a pattern change it's Adios summertime, I'll get my coat.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im afraid the summer forecast is a pretty huge bust.

Nothing else to add really.

[UV-RAY]

Im afraid the summer forecast is a pretty huge bust.

Nothing else to add really.

Can't argue with that, whatever happens now.

[DAVID SNOW]

Im afraid the summer forecast is a pretty huge bust.

Nothing else to add really.

Apart from, there is nothing wrong with a pretty huge bust :blink:

[Weather-history]

Im afraid the summer forecast is a pretty huge bust.

Nothing else to add really.

"Shades of 1976" or "Barbecue Summer", they are all the same side of a coin for me, you are asking for trouble. I would have thought a lesson would have been learnt from the Met Office and that summer 2009 forecast, it clearly wasn't.

There is still a chance of a 1990 type summer with a much better 2nd half.

Edited July 4, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Slowpoke]

"Shades of 1976" or "Barbecue Summer", they are all the same side of a coin for me, you are asking for trouble. I would have thought a lesson would have been learnt from the Met Office and that summer 2009 forecast, it clearly wasn't.

There is still a chance of a 1990 type summer with a much better 2nd half.

It's looking very likely that the second half of July will deliver.

[johnholmes]

It's looking very likely that the second half of July will deliver.

I would use the expression, its a possibility maybe probability that the 2nd half of July could become generally warmer and more settled for the southern half of the UK-I doubt I would make it a stronger prediction than that as of today really?

[mushymanrob]

... yeah but the second half of may was supposed to 'deliver', then it was the second half of june... then early july... now second half of july... and still theres nothing other then tentetive signs in the teleconnections (but my rudimentary knowlege may well be wrong here, please correct me if im wrong!) that anything much different will occur. the mjo is predicted to move into phase 2, but thats still a prediction, not a 'given' for ten days ahead. i expect 'august will deliver' posts soon... and 'september can be nice'...

to me i wouldnt be surprised if the current pattern which has been in place since early may prevails... showery low - ridge - showery low - ridge (ok theres heavier rain and higher temps within this cycle, and locality plays a role, but generally this has been the pattern).

[johnholmes]

... yeah but the second half of may was supposed to 'deliver', then it was the second half of june... then early july... now second half of july... and still theres nothing other then tentetive signs in the teleconnections (but my rudimentary knowlege may well be wrong here, please correct me if im wrong!) that anything much different will occur. the mjo is predicted to move into phase 2, but thats still a prediction, not a 'given' for ten days ahead. i expect 'august will deliver' posts soon... and 'september can be nice'...

to me i wouldnt be surprised if the current pattern which has been in place since early may prevails... showery low - ridge - showery low - ridge (ok theres heavier rain and higher temps within this cycle, and locality plays a role, but generally this has been the pattern).

see my view just posted into the model thread for 10 days and a prob of how the end of the month may be?

[UV-RAY]

... yeah but the second half of may was supposed to 'deliver', then it was the second half of june... then early july... now second half of july... and still theres nothing other then tentetive signs in the teleconnections (but my rudimentary knowlege may well be wrong here, please correct me if im wrong!) that anything much different will occur. the mjo is predicted to move into phase 2, but thats still a prediction, not a 'given' for ten days ahead. i expect 'august will deliver' posts soon... and 'september can be nice'...

to me i wouldnt be surprised if the current pattern which has been in place since early may prevails... showery low - ridge - showery low - ridge (ok theres heavier rain and higher temps within this cycle, and locality plays a role, but generally this has been the pattern).

It tends to remind me of winters past, always something on the horizon but never in the reliable timeframe. The clock is ticking, and the outlook in the reliable remains much of what we have already seen. Summer over, no, but the prospects of a hot dry spell?

[Gray-Wolf]

I've sold my soul to the devil and 'Summer' will commence on July 19th (when our kids break up for the Hol's) .....sorry if this naff beggining is irksome to many but it's just the price he demanded...........

[mushymanrob]

see my view just posted into the model thread for 10 days and a prob of how the end of the month may be?

yes, seen my reply?...lol

viewing the charts you posted links too, and noting your experienced view that they are pretty accurate generally, hoping im interpreting them right, i understand why you posted what you did. i see the ecm is possibly the best for 'summer', with the azh ridging towards us.. but im no fan of the azh, as long as it sits to our west/southwest i cant see a summer hot spell evolving. until these 500 mb anomoly charts start to show a high either over us, or nearby in europe, then i dont think (if im correct) that theres any possibility of us getting a hot spell. as these charts go out to 16 days, that effectively writing off a huge portion of july, and as you posted on the model thread.. theres no reason why anything should evolve even after this timeframe.

of course, this is only guessing at what the current data is telling us and could change... my hunch though is that it wont, and the pattern of ridge/trough/ridge/trough will continue into august.

[Thundery wintry showers]

"Shades of 1976" or "Barbecue Summer", they are all the same side of a coin for me, you are asking for trouble. I would have thought a lesson would have been learnt from the Met Office and that summer 2009 forecast, it clearly wasn't.

There is still a chance of a 1990 type summer with a much better 2nd half.

Sadly, I agree with you. Even when comments like those are well-meaning it doesn't stop the general public from twisting them into a lot more than they really mean (e.g. "shades of 1976" gets corrupted to "this will be another 1976").

[ohno]

Sadly, I agree with you. Even when comments like those are well-meaning it doesn't stop the general public from twisting them into a lot more than they really mean (e.g. "shades of 1976" gets corrupted to "this will be another 1976").

Sorry the usage of 1976 in the orginal forecast gives the general public it was going to be like the summer of 1976.. You can't blame the general public.You need to blame the people that used that summer in the forecast..

Just take alook at the responces of the "general public" on this site everyone was over joyed. Proper summer for once some mentioned etc..

Further more from what iv'e seen of late the forecast a week ahead keeps changing..I read up on how the second half of July was going to be an improvement that was 4 days ago from forecasters. Now its changed again.. Long distance forecasting does not work (IMO) There as so many variables in the bristh weather its imposible to predict more then 4/5 days ahead..

[Polar Maritime]

The Forcast could of gone either way, Its a long range forcast and with having a dry winter and spring i think it was fair to say "Shades Of 1976" and we was on a knife edge of haveing drought conditions that would of been very simular to 1976. It's just a shame the folks dont praise GP when he gets it right, which is more often than not.

Sorry the usage of 1976 in the orginal forecast gives the general public it was going to be like the summer of 1976.. You can't blame the general public.You need to blame the people that used that summer in the forecast..

Just take alook at the responces of the "general public" on this site everyone was over joyed. Proper summer for once some mentioned etc..

Further more from what iv'e seen of late the forecast a week ahead keeps changing..I read up on how the second half of July was going to be an improvement that was 4 days ago from forecasters. Now its changed again.. Long distance forecasting does not work (IMO) There as so many variables in the bristh weather its imposible to predict more then 4/5 days ahead..

I take it you dont understand how lrf's work then. lrf's do change and are updated from time to time, thats normal.

[mushymanrob]

i see nothing wrong with the term 'shades of 76'... if people are too stupid to understand the term then thats their problem...

[ohno]

i see nothing wrong with the term 'shades of 76'... if people are too stupid to understand the term then thats their problem...

I think next summer will be shades of 2003... If it turns out to be like 2007 then the "general public" will be to stupid to realise its not..

In my personal opinion.The netweather summer forecast was late this year. For the reasons they were wondering wether to post their findings of how they believe the summer will turn out,and to steal the headlines they mentioned 1976 in the headline..

I hope from now on, no one will exgerate without "real evidence" and with the uk weather being as it is. There is no real evidence to what will happen..

[Polar Maritime]

I think next summer will be shades of 2003... If it turns out to be like 2007 then the "general public" will be to stupid to realise its not..

In my personal opinion.The netweather summer forecast was late this year. For the reasons they were wondering wether to post their findings of how they believe the summer will turn out,and to steal the headlines they mentioned 1976 in the headline..

I hope from now on, no one will exgerate without "real evidence" and with the uk weather being as it is. There is no real evidence to what will happen..

There is "real evidence" as to why the the term "Shades of 1976" was used. GP backs up all his lrf's with "real evidence" and its all there layed out for you in his lrf. And if the evidence changes then so does the lrf, thats how they work. Its not just a case of "I think..........