Summer Forecast Continued.

[The PIT]

Oh well... Paul Hudson just gave the summer forecast a plug on Look North. Just wait til he gets his forecast wrong again at only 24hrs out.. :lol:

I saw that. Sad to see netweather laughed at. Annoyed me a somewhat.

[Summer Sun]

I saw that. Sad to see netweather laughed at. Annoyed me a somewhat.

In return we can all laugh at him if that chart he's posted fails to come off on Sunday,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

I find it very sad that he's making fun of Netweather just because the hot and dry shades of 1976 forecast hasn't happened.

Note this line

Climate records also indicate that should the rest of July turn out to be unsettled as expected, more often than not August remains changeable, although there are exceptions to the rule.

Well the models don't show that from next week, if this turns out to be the case he's going to look rather stupid.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with that particular statement- weather patterns in July do have a habit of recurring during August, rather like the frequent persistence of January-February patterns, but there are exceptions. 1981 was perhaps the most clear-cut exception during the last century (unless others can fish out any examples from the 1960s or 70s).

[mushymanrob]

I agree with that particular statement- weather patterns in July do have a habit of recurring during August, rather like the frequent persistence of January-February patterns, but there are exceptions. 1981 was perhaps the most clear-cut exception during the last century (unless others can fish out any examples from the 1960s or 70s).

.... try 5 years ago! 06 had two very different months of july and august!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I had a bit of a slip-up there. I was thinking particularly of cloudy wet changeable Julys leading into somewhat different Augusts (as per Paul Hudson's statement), of which there aren't too many, but it's easier to find many examples of cloudy wet changeable Augusts following fine spells in July.

[damianslaw]

I had a bit of a slip-up there. I was thinking particularly of cloudy wet changeable Julys leading into somewhat different Augusts (as per Paul Hudson's statement), of which there aren't too many, but it's easier to find many examples of cloudy wet changeable Augusts following fine spells in July.

July and August are on average much more likely to see similiar conditions than June and July which often show marked contrasts, very much like the jan-feb relationship as opposed to the dec-jan relationship, nov-dec share a similiar close relationship, though recent years such as in 2009 have seen marked differences between the two.

Can't remember the last wet changeable July that was followed by a good August i.e. dry sunny and warm, though we have seen them followed by warm wet augusts as in 2004 and 1997. So there is some truth in wet changeable July's being more likely to be followed by indifferent Augusts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A sobering thought, the last +ve NAO summer month was July 2006, we have had 14 consecutive -ve NAO summer months.

Very interesting. Fits very well with -ve PDO and perturbation cycle correlating with 'enhanced' -ve NAO. Perturbation cycle changed Feb 07.

re the NW summer forecast, what affected or has driven the pressure anomaly experienced to be different to what was anticipated by the composites aligned o teleconnections? A -ve NAO state and southerly jet [i believe a longterm shift has taken place since 07] has a big part IMO.

BFTP

[Weather-history]

I agree with that particular statement- weather patterns in July do have a habit of recurring during August, rather like the frequent persistence of January-February patterns, but there are exceptions. 1981 was perhaps the most clear-cut exception during the last century (unless others can fish out any examples from the 1960s or 70s).

There was a marked contrast between July and August 1936, probably the biggest contrast between the two months of the 20th century.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31510&posts=9&start=1

[mushymanrob]

There was a marked contrast between July and August 1936, probably the biggest contrast between the two months of the 20th century.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31510&posts=9&start=1

so whilst not impossible, its rare to get a good august following a pretty rotten july..

[Paul]

In the style of an infamous 'forecaster' (naming no names)

I'd like to declare the summer forecast 2011 (shades of 1976) a success as it is very hot and very dry in the USA currently, which means that although the location was a little out (what's a couple of thousand miles?), the forecast itself was spot on.

I'm now off to the pub to celebrate - have a good weekend.

PS - For anyone who may think I'm being serious, I'm kidding!!

[Summer Sun]

And to add to what Paul has said you can also include, Cyprus, Turkey and most if not all the Med in have a Hot and Dry Summer.

[95 Degrees]

And to add to what Paul has said you can also include, Cyprus, Turkey and most if not all the Med in have a Hot and Dry Summer.

Not really it's been a pretty average summer in the med as well this year, Hot but nothing unusual for them, shades of 08 would of worked as a headline, average June with a warm/hot spell at some point in the month, then a quite poor July but ending with a possible upcoming Hot Spell like 08, then a poor August after the first few five days maybe?

[Static Prevails]

It's been a good summer inside my house as well. Due to being what meteorologists call 'indoors', temperatures have been pretty consistent at around 21°C, and it's been bone dry too.

Edited July 22, 2011 by IAmJohnnyDisco

[EaasmanG]

What a bleak boring July. Could I get through to the end of the month without a single 20°C in the second half? My vote yes.

[Evening thunder]

Been a decent summer in my room too, Currently it is dry with a respectable temp of 22.8C.. oh wait, you want the outside temp to be decent? Ah sorry it's 16.2C with light rain.. again.

[johnholmes]

In the style of an infamous 'forecaster' (naming no names)

the forecast itself was spot on.

I'm now off to the pub to celebrate - have a good weekend.

a man after my own heart-the forecast is always correct and one needs to celebrate that with the odd pint

!!

[UV-RAY]

In the style of an infamous 'forecaster' (naming no names)

I'd like to declare the summer forecast 2011 (shades of 1976) a success as it is very hot and very dry in the USA currently, which means that although the location was a little out (what's a couple of thousand miles?), the forecast itself was spot on.

I'm now off to the pub to celebrate - have a good weekend.

PS - For anyone who may think I'm being serious, I'm kidding!!

A much better reason would be how recent earthquake activity had temporally tilted the earth of it's normal axis, and thus resulting in a 1976 type summer in the US. A scientific explanation and one which might just pull the wool over our eyes.

[Guest]

[

In the style of an infamous 'forecaster' (naming no names)

I'd like to declare the summer forecast 2011 (shades of 1976) a success as it is very hot and very dry in the USA currently, which means that although the location was a little out (what's a couple of thousand miles?), the forecast itself was spot on.

I'm now off to the pub to celebrate - have a good weekend.

PS - For anyone who may think I'm being serious, I'm kidding!!

Check you map - I think the US of A is a bit more than 2000 miles, though they are not having a bad summer in SE Europe - there have been some good spells in Scandinavia as will both within say 1,000 miles.

And I thought you were being serious

Edited July 23, 2011 by mike Meehan

[ZONE 51]

Here are the world temperatures GFS predictions for monday afternoon-note the USA heatwaves!

[feb1991blizzard]

What a bleak boring July. Could I get through to the end of the month without a single 20°C in the second half? My vote yes.

I doubt it very much, i am almost certain that if you dont get one in the week you will get one next weekend.

[Alan Robinson]

[

there have been some good spells in Scandinavia

After the warmest, driest Danish April on record, we have had a very average May followed by warm and very wet June and - to date - July. There have been several deluges, and traffic round that awful spot called København was disrupted for days. Oh, hang on, the forenoon of June 12th was fine as I recall it. Right now though we have a low parked right on top of us, pouring water all over the place.

[ZONE 51]

ElectricSnowStorm 14 May 2011 - 00:59

august - heatwaves and storms for much of the UK ,some of the highest temps being recorded early month, i don't see cool conditions at this stage, although low pressure starting to get into the southwest....

-

wrote this on 14th may, this is what is on the menu next week!

Edited July 31, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Weather-history]

Shades of summer 1981 is springing to mind. Both June and July were on the coolish side but were not particularly wet. A bit like this June and July.

Edited July 31, 2011 by Mr_Data

[damianslaw]

I think we can safely say summer 2011 so far has had no shades of 1976 about it. The outlook for the first part of August looks unsettled though warm/very warm. Time is fast running out for a lengthy protracted dry hot sunny period as we saw in 1976, yes we may still see a good spell of very warm sunny dry weather- but the odds are shortening.

[Guest]

I think we can safely say summer 2011 so far has had no shades of 1976 about it. The outlook for the first part of August looks unsettled though warm/very warm. Time is fast running out for a lengthy protracted dry hot sunny period as we saw in 1976, yes we may still see a good spell of very warm sunny dry weather- but the odds are shortening.

Oh, in some respects I believe it does - this year, as in the summer of 1976 the sun rises each day, the only difference being that this year we have often had a layer of cloud between the sun and the ground.