Mini Ice Age On The Way?

[DAVID SNOW]

But when did the records begin?

The problem is you can only really compare this to the last 200 years at most. Nobody knows how this or last year compared to the year 251BC for example.

But when did the records begin you ask?

Yesterday i would say, in the great scheme of things,

time that is.

[jethro]

There has been quite a lot of work done on temperature reconstructions for Greenland; the general consensus is there is nothing particularly extraordinary going on today and the primary driving force behind the waxing and waning of the ice sheet is atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFMPP52A0663K

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/sep/02sep2010a3.html

http://www.clim-past.net/7/543/2011/cp-7-543-2011.pdf

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/greenland/vintheretal2006.pdf

[Methuselah]

Greenland was called Greenland because they wanted to entice settlers (workers), onto the land, in reality it was very very white. However there is a small part of western Greenland that in both winter and summer recieves very mild temperatures for its location.

Oddly enough, Ste, that's just what I was taught in geography - 40 years' back!

[Village]

As I understand it , the southern part of Greenland was green between Spring and Autumn and it was warm enough to grow crops there. The evidence from the digs in the region have uncovered that aggriculture did take place for a number of generations before it became colder again. Today, this part of Greenland is still much colder than it was in the past when it was colonised.

There has been quite a lot of work done on temperature reconstructions for Greenland; the general consensus is there is nothing particularly extraordinary going on today and the primary driving force behind the waxing and waning of the ice sheet is atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic.

Yes, through my own observations I would concur with this too. Its the lobes of warm regions of the Stratosphere which retrogress in a series around the region 60 to 70 degrees north which induce a mid lattitude surface pressure gradient or NOT as the case may be.

I have noted that this in turn affects the source region for the draw on mid lattitude input to the Artic.

My own theory is that the ice sheet is absolutely determined by this source region because this is critical to atmospheric moisture in the lowest portion of the atmosphere and therefore precipitation in the region.

One day, when I have the time I will bring my own theory on the science to be tested.

Edited June 30, 2011 by Village

[Staffordshire]

Just wondering why your opinions on elenin are? NASA seem preety keen to hide the tracks of it, check it out on YouTube Oh something else strange, one of the managers at NASA did an 'unusual' interview and he was telling people to get a family prepairdness plan incase something happened like a natural disaster. They have never done anything like this before, he also stated incase of another 9/11, funnily enough the predicted time that the comet elenin will be closest to us is November 9th 2011... What are your views...

your views...

[cheeky_monkey]

Just wondering why your opinions on elenin are? NASA seem preety keen to hide the tracks of it, check it out on YouTube Oh something else strange, one of the managers at NASA did an 'unusual' interview and he was telling people to get a family prepairdness plan incase something happened like a natural disaster. They have never done anything like this before, he also stated incase of another 9/11, funnily enough the predicted time that the comet elenin will be closest to us is November 9th 2011... What are your views...

your views...

there is topic about this in the science section

[Staffordshire]

okay thanks buddy, I didn't realise!

[cheeky_monkey]

okay thanks buddy, I didn't realise!

really..because you actually started the thread

Edited June 30, 2011 by cheeky_monkey

[Staffordshire]

really..because you actually started the thread

I thought it got deleted not moved tothat section

[Summer Sun]

The BBC have produced a very interesting artical,

UK faces more harsh winters in solar activity dip

Britain is set to face an increase in harsh winters, with up to one-in-seven gripping the UK with prolonged sub-zero temperatures, a study has suggested. The projection was based on research that identified how low solar activity affected winter weather patterns.

However, the authors were keen to stress that their findings did not suggest that the region was about to be plunged into a "little ice age".

"We could get to the point where one-in-seven winters are very cold, such as we had at the start of last winter and all through the winter before," said co-author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading.

Professor Lockwood was keen to point out that his team's paper did not suggest that the UK and mainland Europe was about to be plunged into a "little ice age" as a result of low solar activity, as some media reports had suggested. "There were colder winters in Europe. That almost certainly means, from what we understand about the blocking mechanisms that cause them, that there were warmer winters in Greenland," he observed. "The summers were probably warmer if anything, rather than colder as they would be in an ice age."

So as i pointed out ages ago Mini Ice Age won't be happening, yes we can expect cold winters, but no Ice age is on the way.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

[P-M]

The BBC have produced a very interesting artical,

UK faces more harsh winters in solar activity dip

Britain is set to face an increase in harsh winters, with up to one-in-seven gripping the UK with prolonged sub-zero temperatures, a study has suggested. The projection was based on research that identified how low solar activity affected winter weather patterns.

However, the authors were keen to stress that their findings did not suggest that the region was about to be plunged into a "little ice age".

"We could get to the point where one-in-seven winters are very cold, such as we had at the start of last winter and all through the winter before," said co-author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading.

Professor Lockwood was keen to point out that his team's paper did not suggest that the UK and mainland Europe was about to be plunged into a "little ice age" as a result of low solar activity, as some media reports had suggested. "There were colder winters in Europe. That almost certainly means, from what we understand about the blocking mechanisms that cause them, that there were warmer winters in Greenland," he observed. "The summers were probably warmer if anything, rather than colder as they would be in an ice age."

So as i pointed out ages ago Mini Ice Age won't be happening, yes we can expect cold winters, but no Ice age is on the way.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-14029995

1 in 7? How does that explain the last 3? Not saying there's an ice age coming because I don't believe that but the winters have gotten worse and something has changed with the patterns. Either way where do they pluck the 1 in 7 from? Does that mean that 6 in 7 winters will be relatively mild?

[VillagePlank]

1 in 7? How does that explain the last 3? Not saying there's an ice age coming because I don't believe that but the winters have gotten worse and something has changed with the patterns. Either way where do they pluck the 1 in 7 from? Does that mean that 6 in 7 winters will be relatively mild?

Normal statistics means that if an infinite amount of winters were counted then 1/7th of them would be cold. Real data always clusters: indeed, that's a way of spotting fraud - if the data doesn't cluster, a human being did it, not some natural or random process.

[Essan]

The BBC have produced a very interesting artical,

UK faces more harsh winters in solar activity dip

Of course, an equally accurate headline would have been "UK faces more severe heatwaves in solar activity dip"

[UV-RAY]

1 in 7? How does that explain the last 3? Not saying there's an ice age coming because I don't believe that but the winters have gotten worse and something has changed with the patterns. Either way where do they pluck the 1 in 7 from? Does that mean that 6 in 7 winters will be relatively mild?

They aren't very good with statistics, there baseline starts with +1c for AGW, hence why their LRF skills are pretty inept. Like you say the last 3 have been below average, so that kind of blows that theory out of the water.

[Essan]

Last winter certainly got worse - if you like cold and snowy weather :winky: And if Feb's anything to go by, we could well be getting a heatwave this winter!

[snowlover2009]

Last winter certainly got worse - if you like cold and snowy weather :winky: And if Feb's anything to go by, we could well be getting a heatwave this winter!

What has the mild weather in February got to do with a warm winter this year?

Anyway, have we got any data for the upcoming winter, like qbo patterns etc? A weak La Nina looks likely, so that is a good start.

[Eabie]

I don't know about anyone else but I for one am looking forward to having different weather for once. London is almost on the same latitude as Winnipeg, Canada which is the coldest city in the world (over 600,000 people) and they get by just fine in winter.

That's my hometown!

And yes, we get by mostly by grousing and grumbling our way through winter.

[cheeky_monkey]

That's my hometown!

I wouldnt advertise that fact

[Eabie]

I wouldnt advertise that fact

Why?

[cheeky_monkey]

Why?

Winterpeg gets a bad rep in Canada...esp amongst Expats even worse than Edmonton as not a good place to be.

[P-M]

They aren't very good with statistics, there baseline starts with +1c for AGW, hence why their LRF skills are pretty inept. Like you say the last 3 have been below average, so that kind of blows that theory out of the water.

Cheers for the explaination. I am actually hoping that this year isn't as bad in terms of snowfall. I am speaking from an IMBY perspective really but there were around 9 days of convective snowfall here, thunder and lightning and by the end of it I was miserable lol Cabin fever set in when the council couldn't keep up with the volume of falling snow.

Anyway, despite what I want I have a feeling that this winter will have some surprises in store and we could well see a below average winter again, with some significant snowfall. No reason behind it, but I feel that the weather has changed somewhat in the winter months and also feel that low solar activity MUST plat some part in our climate. I am born and bred northeast and can't ever remember 3 consecutive winters where snowfall has been as significant and temps have been as low. Maybe selective memory only time will tell!

[Alex95]

Cheers for the explaination. I am actually hoping that this year isn't as bad in terms of snowfall. I am speaking from an IMBY perspective really but there were around 9 days of convective snowfall here, thunder and lightning and by the end of it I was miserable lol Cabin fever set in when the council couldn't keep up with the volume of falling snow.

Anyway, despite what I want I have a feeling that this winter will have some surprises in store and we could well see a below average winter again, with some significant snowfall. No reason behind it, but I feel that the weather has changed somewhat in the winter months and also feel that low solar activity MUST plat some part in our climate. I am born and bred northeast and can't ever remember 3 consecutive winters where snowfall has been as significant and temps have been as low. Maybe selective memory only time will tell!

If you exclude 1997 - 2008 its actually quite common!

[cheeky_monkey]

Cheers for the explaination. I am actually hoping that this year isn't as bad in terms of snowfall. I am speaking from an IMBY perspective really but there were around 9 days of convective snowfall here, thunder and lightning and by the end of it I was miserable lol Cabin fever set in when the council couldn't keep up with the volume of falling snow.

you want to live here in Edmonton we had 6 months of snow from Oct - Apr last winter and believe me it does get quite depressing at times

[Snowstorm1]

you want to live here in Edmonton we had 6 months of snow from Oct - Apr last winter and believe me it does get quite depressing at times

That sounds lovely actually !

[Essan]

you want to live here in Edmonton we had 6 months of snow from Oct - Apr last winter and believe me it does get quite depressing at times

It was bad enough in parts of Britain last winter!

Mind, so far this year we've had exactly no days of falling or lying snow in Evesham - and I've secretly hoping it doesn't snow this winter until January, just to give a full calendar year