Where Has The Summer Gone?

[Evening thunder]

Personally I believe that the economic downturn has affected summer's bank balance meaning that it doesn't want to pay import duty to enter the UK..

Maybe the money 'summer' had saved up in 2007/8 that it intended to use to come back to the UK for the MetO's 'BBQ summer' in 2009 had to be spent else where?

Edited June 18, 2011 by Stormmad26

[Thundery wintry showers]

Why all the doom and gloom? :unsure:

I think the main reason is, in two words, "unrealistic expectations". This is the British Isles, located at the downwind end of the Atlantic, and exposed to the full force of Atlantic weather systems, rather than the south coast of Spain, but nonetheless an overwhelming majority of the people who post in Model Output Discussion consider anything short of "dry, sunny and at least 1.5C above average and constant high pressure" to be a major disaster, rather than seeing mediocrity for what it is. I don't think the views in MOD are, btw, representative of the vast majority of the site's membership- rather people with differing views are afraid to post in there for fear of being accused of blasphemy.

I can see grounds for people being disappointed at June, which so far has been slightly cooler, wetter and sunnier than average taking the country as a whole, which isn't what the original N-W summer forecast suggested, but it's been nothing compared to, say, the first half of Junes 1987 or 1998. But the fact is that over the years, June has always been a bit too cool for many people's tastes with July and August generally giving the warmest weather, "flaming June" has always been uttered more commonly in exasperation than as an accurate description, and I think the "June being the most reliable month over the last few years" might have had a distorting effect on perceptions.

[Bale]

I think the main reason is, in two words, "unrealistic expectations". This is the British Isles, located at the downwind end of the Atlantic, and exposed to the full force of Atlantic weather systems, rather than the south coast of Spain, but nonetheless an overwhelming majority of the people who post in Model Output Discussion consider anything short of "dry, sunny and at least 1.5C above average and constant high pressure" to be a major disaster, rather than seeing mediocrity for what it is. I don't think the views in MOD are, btw, representative of the vast majority of the site's membership- rather people with differing views are afraid to post in there for fear of being accused of blasphemy.

I can see grounds for people being disappointed at June, which so far has been slightly cooler, wetter and sunnier than average taking the country as a whole, which isn't what the original N-W summer forecast suggested, but it's been nothing compared to, say, the first half of Junes 1987 or 1998. But the fact is that over the years, June has always been a bit too cool for many people's tastes with July and August generally giving the warmest weather, "flaming June" has always been uttered more commonly in exasperation than as an accurate description, and I think the "June being the most reliable month over the last few years" might have had a distorting effect on perceptions.

Gotta say i agree with you and i admit to being one of many whos expectations are so high and as you rightly say just look at where we are on the map...i put it down to after a long and at times bitter winter i feel we are entitled to a decent summer...so to sum it up a typical brit(and going back straight away on what i wrote to start with..lol)

however i remain convinced that july will pick up and i will remain convinced in september :wacko:

[MP-R]

I think my overall impressions of June would have been a lot better so far if the temperatures had actually reached average and we had less gales and rain!

[UV-RAY]

I think the main reason is, in two words, "unrealistic expectations". This is the British Isles, located at the downwind end of the Atlantic, and exposed to the full force of Atlantic weather systems, rather than the south coast of Spain, but nonetheless an overwhelming majority of the people who post in Model Output Discussion consider anything short of "dry, sunny and at least 1.5C above average and constant high pressure" to be a major disaster, rather than seeing mediocrity for what it is. I don't think the views in MOD are, btw, representative of the vast majority of the site's membership- rather people with differing views are afraid to post in there for fear of being accused of blasphemy.

I can see grounds for people being disappointed at June, which so far has been slightly cooler, wetter and sunnier than average taking the country as a whole, which isn't what the original N-W summer forecast suggested, but it's been nothing compared to, say, the first half of Junes 1987 or 1998. But the fact is that over the years, June has always been a bit too cool for many people's tastes with July and August generally giving the warmest weather, "flaming June" has always been uttered more commonly in exasperation than as an accurate description, and I think the "June being the most reliable month over the last few years" might have had a distorting effect on perceptions.

This is so true TWS, many have been spoilt over the years when ENSO and solar conditions were far more favourable for summer warmth. Ok June hasn't been great, but we need to lower our expectations for the remainder of summer, a week or so of warm and sunny weather will soon banish the June blues!

[TonyH]

Rather cool and showery would seem to sum up this month, at least we have had decent sunny spells between.

[ohno]

Thats entirely true! From a personal observation September is a more reliable month then June..

Though the last two previous Junes have been excellent

[paul tall]

Let's face it, the first half of June is often just an extension of Spring - I don't count it as summer at all. It can be warm and sunny, it can be miserable and rainy, it can blow gales and it can be cold. The first half of June is often disappointing - compared to people's perceptions of how it should be. But the facts are there to see in climatic data, June is on average substantially cooler than July and August. By my reckoning, usually because of unsettled and cool starts to the month as we try and pull away from Spring.

For me, and I've always said this, summer starts in mid June and goes to mid September - how many times have we had better weather in early September than early June, even though meteorologically it's autumn? September is often a mirror of June.

All that said, whilst not at all surprised by the last few weeks of weather, I am ready for some sun and yearn for some settled, calm, warm, sunny weather. Especially as I am holidaying in England this year (22nd July). The Met Office forecast extends already to 17th July, and it isn't looking good is it!

Edited June 18, 2011 by paul tall

[MP-R]

Let's face it, the first half of June is often just an extension of Spring - I don't count it as summer at all. It can be warm and sunny, it can be miserable and rainy, it can blow gales and it can be cold. The first half of June is often disappointing - compared to people's perceptions of how it should be. But the facts are there to see in climatic data, June is on average substantially cooler than July and August. By my reckoning, usually because of unsettled and cool starts to the month as we try and pull away from Spring.

For me, and I've always said this, summer starts in mid June and goes to mid September - how many times have we had better weather in early September than early June, even though meteorologically it's autumn? September is often a mirror of June.

All that said, whilst not at all surprised by the last few weeks of weather, I am ready for some sun and yearn for some settled, calm, warm, sunny weather. Especially as I am holidaying in England this year (22nd July). The Met Office forecast extends already to 17th July, and it isn't looking good is it!

1) which goes against the idea of the June return of the westerlies in the final third of the month that more often than not happens

2) often due to lower minima as for many years, the average maximum has been higher in June than July but the average minimum is considerably higher in July and August than June

3) seems to be that settled Junes are often followed by more unsettled Septembers and vice versa e.g. 2008 or 2007 or 2006

[paul tall]

1) That idea is no more factually correct than my opinion that the first half of June is often cooler. In fact it's obvious that the first half of June will be often cooler than the second half of June, July and August.

2) Your comment that the average maximum in June "for many years" has been warmer than July is simply incorrect. Show me the data to back this up? There will be odd exceptions of course.

3) I don't agree or dispute that settled Junes are followed by unsettled Septembers and vice versa, but I wasn't making that point and neither do I care. I simply pondered that it is not unusual to get glorious early September weather, just as it is not unusual to get poor early June weather.

Edited June 18, 2011 by paul tall

[Summer of 95]

It's just such a waste when we're given daylight till 10pm and can't take advantage of it ; 12C and rain, with those who dress for the weather rather than the season (like I do) wearing coats, belongs to the 5pm dusk of late October/early November.

This month is becoming like a spring version of July 2009; a couple of warm days to begin with, then non-stop showers interspersed with rain, and below-average maxima: I say a "spring version" because the maxima have been 14-15C down to 11-12, rather than 18-19 down to 15-16 like we tend to get in summer months like July 2009/2007/1988.

As for September, I think my feeling that it isn't really a summer month is mostly due to those awful Septembers of the late 80s/early 90s, especially 1992-3-4 when it often seemed like a late autumn month. Every month between April and August had at least one outstandingly "summery" example between 1987 and 1995; but September didn't (except for the first few days of Sep 1991).

[MP-R]

1) That idea is no more factually correct than my opinion that the first half of June is often cooler. In fact it's obvious that the first half of June will be often cooler than the second half of June, July and August.

2) Your comment that the average maximum in June "for many years" has been warmer than July is simply incorrect. Show me the data to back this up? There will be odd exceptions of course.

3) I don't agree or dispute that settled Junes are followed by unsettled Septembers and vice versa, but I wasn't making that point and neither do I care. I simply pondered that it is not unusual to get glorious early September weather, just as it is not unusual to get poor early June weather.

Apologies if my post sounded left trouser legy - was having a rather bad day.

1) That's fair enough though more often than not the first half of June is a lot more settled than the second half

2) I could post from many sources which I will do when I'm more than half awake but for now I'll display my own data showing June/July/August average maxima:

2010: 22.9C / 22.8C / 21.3C

2009: 22.3C / 21.5C / 22.4C

2008: 20.4C / 21.2C / 20.7C

2007: 20.6C / 20.4C / 21.5C

2006: 23.8C / 26.7C / 22.3C

2005: 22.1C / 23.4C / 22.8C

2004: 22.2C / 21.8C / 22.8C

2003: 22.9C / 22.6C / 25.8C

2002: 20.6C / 21.4C / 21.9C

2001: 21.8C / 22.4C / 22.2C

2000: 20.9C / 20.4C / 21.5C

3) I may have just misunderstood that point so I'll just answer it by saying 'rarely'.

[ZONE 51]

Take a look at my chart here, when summer is viewed in this way it shows just how long there is to go.plenty of time for the hot high then?

ok we are over two weeks now and the charts indicates 2wks cover..but you get my point!B)

Edited June 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

THIS IS A POST FROM ANOTHER THREAD NOT MINE

Quote "Yesterday, 13:41With Summer so far being a disappointment for many, I thought I would make an Autumn thread. IMHO, I am more excited about the prospects of Autumn than the summer(if you call it that) that we are having. I think it is safe to say June 2011 will not be a memorable one, but there is still July and August, while I hope to see an improvement, I cannot see the summer being anything particularly special.

Anyway we had a Winter thread at the start of September 2010, 3 months before winter( I checked in my previous posts because I made many responses), it is June and we have passed the middle of June, so I don't see why we can't discuss Autumn for now, as I think many will be more interested in the prospects than the summer.

Longest day next week, Tuesday I think and the nights start drawing in slowly

So my punt and has not changed for a while now as I have been thinking about Autumn, is that it will be colder than normal, the second half of Autumn being the coldest, I have a feeling we will have a Greenland high particularly october onwards, september being the warmest month with average rainfall.

I hope we don't have that annoying western based Greenland high or mid Atlantic high like last autumn, saying that look what happened in November and December.

Here is a few lrfs for autumn, some even show winter if interested winter, which is too far out, but does looking interesting once again, but I think by September we can start to take winter lrfs more seriously, of course some people don't at all, but from what I remember the lrfs in the summer showed an averagish winter, then by September to december non stop blocking on the december anomaly chart:

Anyway here we are:

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif Don't know which link we should be looking at, which is recent as both show upated dates

http://cmdp.ncc.cma..../pred/en_cs.php If anyone can find the autumn forecast on here it would be a big help

http://www.jamstec.g...esearch/d1/iod/ click 'seasonal predicitions' in the side bar for autumn forecast and more

That is what I could find, feel free to add more and I will add them to this post, so members can see them.

ALSO FEEL FREE TO USE THIS THREAD AS ANYTHING ABOUT, AUTUMN, POST PICTURE, YOUR STORIES, MEMORABLE WEATHER EVENTS IN AUTUMN OR EVENTS FROM LAST YEAR LIKE THE SNOW OR DISCUSS YOUR FAVOURITE FEELINGS AND THINGS ABOUT AUTUMN. LETS GET PEOPLE IN THE MOOD.

Heres hoping for a lot of this:

and a lot of wind!

and less of this

P.S mods, feel free to change the title or shorten it or pin it"

-

:rofl:

thread was closed....

i have copied the opening post so can reply to this post in here now then.

Edited June 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

...............

June 14, 2011 (notes updated June 15, 2011)

ENSO forecast: The current La Nina condition has decayed during the past months and showed a Modoki-type pattern. Although the possibility of an El Nino development cannot be excluded (if surface westerly wind bursts in the equatorial western Pacific would happen in following months), our model forecasts continuously show that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist up to early 2012.

IO forecast: Large uncertainty exists for the IOD forecasts; neither strong positive IOD nor strong negative IOD would occur this year. Warmer seas surface temperature would persist west of Australia.

Regional forecast: The cool/wet condition in southern Africa would continue in following austral winter but weaken in spring. Most of Australia would have a dry austral winter and normal spring. Japan would have a dry condition in July-August 2011; seasonal mean temperature would be almost normal this summer but with strong intraseasonal fluctuations. Northeastern China would have flooding condition in July-August 2011. Most of India would have good rains/flooding associated with the La Nina influence.

-

link to above text

click seasonal prediction on left side panel

Edited June 19, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[paul tall]

Apologies if my post sounded left trouser legy - was having a rather bad day.

1) That's fair enough though more often than not the first half of June is a lot more settled than the second half

2) I could post from many sources which I will do when I'm more than half awake but for now I'll display my own data showing June/July/August average maxima:

2010: 22.9C / 22.8C / 21.3C

2009: 22.3C / 21.5C / 22.4C

2008: 20.4C / 21.2C / 20.7C

2007: 20.6C / 20.4C / 21.5C

2006: 23.8C / 26.7C / 22.3C

2005: 22.1C / 23.4C / 22.8C

2004: 22.2C / 21.8C / 22.8C

2003: 22.9C / 22.6C / 25.8C

2002: 20.6C / 21.4C / 21.9C

2001: 21.8C / 22.4C / 22.2C

2000: 20.9C / 20.4C / 21.5C

3) I may have just misunderstood that point so I'll just answer it by saying 'rarely'.

1) I'm not sure I agree, but as you live in another corner of the country I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - it may well be true in Bristol.

2)I would be interested to see any official comparisons in your area for the same time frame - I believe your readings have some solar influence, just judging by the temperatures you've reported in previous summers that seemed a degree or two too high. The point is that the sun is at it's strongest and highest in the sky, in June. Also, even according to your readings, it's only "half" not "many".

My June/July/August readings -

2010 - 19.1/20.0/18.3

2009 - 17.7/19.5/19.7

2008 - 17.5/19.9/18.5

2007 - 17.5/18.9/19.0

2006 - 20.3/24.8/18.8

2005 - 19.0/19.8/19.8

2004 - 18.7/19.0/19.7

3) I'm not sure I agree, but as you live in another corner of the country I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - it may well be true in Bristol.

EDIT 2) - A quick look on the Met Office Site reveals that in the 11 years since and including 2000, in SW England, 3 Junes have been warmer than July - 2004, 2007 and 2009. Doesn't seem to be anything out of the ordinary, then.

Edited June 19, 2011 by paul tall

[EaasmanG]

This has been a very strange year here for weather.

At least where I live it has been a direct analogue of 2007, except for january.

February, very mild.

March, very mild.

April, warmest on record (again).

May, cooler than April and very unsettled (in the NW)

June, warm spell at beginning (as did 2007 if you remember) then incessant low pressure and cold ever since, and threatening to be even colder than April (!?)

Not making me feel good for July really.

Edited June 19, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Stormyking]

Where has summer gone? Well it is here as it is June and is a summer month lol

Just because its been wet and unsettled the past week or 2 don't mean summer is over yet, We still have July and August to come which in my opinion will be a big improvement. There has also been quite a bit of thunder about in places and even here every now and then which I reckon it has been a success. Also the first few days of June was very nice and the odd nice day thrown in between the unsettled weather.

For me I love a different variety bunch of weather as it makes it a lot more interesting, especially the thunder

Don't panic guys summer has only just begun and there will be some nice weather to come

[EaasmanG]

Where has summer gone? Well it is here as it is June and is a summer month lol

Just because its been wet and unsettled the past week or 2 don't mean summer is over yet, We still have July and August to come which in my opinion will be a big improvement. There has also been quite a bit of thunder about in places and even here every now and then which I reckon it has been a success. Also the first few days of June was very nice and the odd nice day thrown in between the unsettled weather.

For me I love a different variety bunch of weather as it makes it a lot more interesting, especially the thunder

Don't panic guys summer has only just begun and there will be some nice weather to come

No thunderstorms here. It is a matter of where you live. Thunderstorms are never severe or organised in the UK (maybe rarely) and tend to be very isolated and short lived. So whoever has had them has been lucky. June 2007 was actually superior in my opinion to this June, as there were many thunderstorms and it was actually warmer than average with a decent first two weeks.

Edited June 19, 2011 by EaasmanG

[Snowyowl9]

Can`t complain too much about this year yet,thunder wise theres been one day each month.

April gave 2 days of thunder which was the best this year in that respect and summer came in april.

This June is certainly different to recent junes cooler as usually June has been the best month of the summer.

It`s been a few years since the last cool unsettled june,have to check on that....

I`m thinking July will be a scorcher this time,or august but thats getting too late really.

[Stormyking]

No thunderstorms here. It is a matter of where you live. Thunderstorms are never severe or organised in the UK (maybe rarely) and tend to be very isolated and short lived. So whoever has had them has been lucky. June 2007 was actually superior in my opinion to this June, as there were many thunderstorms and it was actually warmer than average with a decent first two weeks.

Well they can be severe and organised at times, especially if they are imports or if an area of elevated storms form in britain the can be quite big at times.

What I meant was I like the different variety of weather thats what i was more referring too as well

[Rainy]

Looking at max temps is OK I suppose to give some idea of variability from year to year. Can be an illusion though.

Over the last 6 weeks I've noticed we've had mostly cloudy (and wet) days here in the NW hills. But sometimes we've had a short break in the cloud cover, giving us a sunny spell for, say, 20 mins. Suddenly the heat pumps through and lifts the max briefly. We are then shocked by the power and brightness of the summer sun, feeling as though we've just come into another climate.

But soon all forgotten as the cloud closes in again, chilly winds return and temps drop.

Fond memories of years ago when we seemed to get full benefit of lots of sunshine from the long June days. Memories can be selective though. There were always some unsettled spells, very trying, at haytime. Also it can be as cold at midsummer as it is at Christmas. Thick coats worn in the hayfield.

But I don't think I can recall such a long period in the late spring / early summer with so little sunshine.

Is anyone keeping sunshine records?

[EaasmanG]

Looking at max temps is OK I suppose to give some idea of variability from year to year. Can be an illusion though.

Over the last 6 weeks I've noticed we've had mostly cloudy (and wet) days here in the NW hills. But sometimes we've had a short break in the cloud cover, giving us a sunny spell for, say, 20 mins. Suddenly the heat pumps through and lifts the max briefly. We are then shocked by the power and brightness of the summer sun, feeling as though we've just come into another climate.

But soon all forgotten as the cloud closes in again, chilly winds return and temps drop.

Fond memories of years ago when we seemed to get full benefit of lots of sunshine from the long June days. Memories can be selective though. There were always some unsettled spells, very trying, at haytime. Also it can be as cold at midsummer as it is at Christmas. Thick coats worn in the hayfield.

But I don't think I can recall such a long period in the late spring / early summer with so little sunshine.

Is anyone keeping sunshine records?

I am but my area usually sees far below the England average of sunshine anyway. In May we had only 135 hours of sunshine and in June so far we have had about 110. So below average on both counts. But that is lower than what the England & Wales average is.

[MP-R]

1) I'm not sure I agree, but as you live in another corner of the country I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - it may well be true in Bristol.

2)I would be interested to see any official comparisons in your area for the same time frame - I believe your readings have some solar influence, just judging by the temperatures you've reported in previous summers that seemed a degree or two too high. The point is that the sun is at it's strongest and highest in the sky, in June. Also, even according to your readings, it's only "half" not "many".

My June/July/August readings -

2010 - 19.1/20.0/18.3

2009 - 17.7/19.5/19.7

2008 - 17.5/19.9/18.5

2007 - 17.5/18.9/19.0

2006 - 20.3/24.8/18.8

2005 - 19.0/19.8/19.8

2004 - 18.7/19.0/19.7

3) I'm not sure I agree, but as you live in another corner of the country I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - it may well be true in Bristol.

EDIT 2) - A quick look on the Met Office Site reveals that in the 11 years since and including 2000, in SW England, 3 Junes have been warmer than July - 2004, 2007 and 2009. Doesn't seem to be anything out of the ordinary, then.

I think location is a major influence. The main reason behind the maxima being higher in June quite often, here, is down to the prevelance of settled and sunny weather. I'm sure if June mirrored that of July then it would be cooler, like 2002 for instance. One thing that is notable however, are the minima. The sun being strongest in June accounts for the high maxima but in settled spells this is often accompanied by minima between 6C-10C. The 20th June last year went from 5.9C to 22.4C.

As for location of my thermometer, it's placed 1.5-2m off the ground (grass), north facing, constantly in the shade blocked by the house to the east and by the time has sun has got around to the west, it has been gone down behind the fence, it's not exposed to much wind and stays dry all the time. Surely that must be quite an ideal place for a thermometer.

[Rainy]

I am but my area usually sees far below the England average of sunshine anyway. In May we had only 135 hours of sunshine and in June so far we have had about 110. So below average on both counts. But that is lower than what the England & Wales average is.

Interesting. Thank you.

Have you the sunshine total for April?

Our sun levels up here must normally be well below the national average also. Today so far we've had a 30sec burst of sunlight. Didn't alter today's max temp which is currently 13.9C.