Where Has The Summer Gone?

[DAVID SNOW]

Whos gloating? we may well get a good July. But i understand the british climate quite well.. one of the next two summer months maybe August is going to be extremely wet... if we do get some good weather in July. August with go with a bang and rain for weeks on end.. Thats just my prognosis...

NO. The summer is a THREE month forecast,so shut up @ come back in september.

[EaasmanG]

I do believe that summer will make a return for the second half of July - until then, another month of cool temperatures and rain for most.

I am now "Eaasman G" because I forgot my password for "Eaasman F".

[TEITS]

But i understand the british climate quite well.. one of the next two summer months maybe August is going to be extremely wet... if we do get some good weather in July. August with go with a bang and rain for weeks on end.. Thats just my prognosis...

If you understand the British climate so well then you would realise how difficult it is to predict especially long range. Could you please explain why you think August is going to be extremely wet?

Really does irk me that GP has been right on many occasions and yet we get members such as yourself who continually keep mocking his forecast. If you have the same meteorological knowledge as GP and equally been as successful in posting LRF then you would be qualified to question his forecasts. As it stands you don't and therefore should stop trolling.

[ohno]

Well we haven't seen that much rain in recent months.. After we get a glimse of summer..next month sometime..It will be a passing thought.We will get one of them slow moving lows that will sit directly over us.Winds will drop and low will stagnate and stay around for along time..

Of late we are getting weather fronts that bring bands of showers day after day.Alot of us are hoping to see a big area of HP to build in from the SW moving the weather fronts north... I think we will get a big low that will build in.The winds will drop like i said and we will be stuck with it. Therefore ending the remaining part of the summer...

[johnholmes]

Am still waiting for the long hot summer with shades of 76 that was predicted on this very site..Guess the 2nd weekend in August when we see 25c will be it

its good to get the occasional comic joining the site

around for along time..

one assumes you mean a long time?

[Bale]

Well we haven't seen that much rain in recent months.. After we get a glimse of summer..next month sometime..It will be a passing thought.We will get one of them slow moving lows that will sit directly over us.Winds will drop and low will stagnate and stay around for along time..

Of late we are getting weather fronts that bring bands of showers day after day.Alot of us are hoping to see a big area of HP to build in from the SW moving the weather fronts north... I think we will get a big low that will build in.The winds will drop like i said and we will be stuck with it. Therefore ending the remaining part of the summer...

well at least your remaining positive mate

[Bale]

We have to bear in mind that the NAO and AO are negative at the moment. When they hopefully hike up again then we should get more settled weather as I have said in another thread. Let's hope weather onlines interpretation is wrong.

From what i can recall weather chocolate teapot onlines forecast during april was for the month ahead "dry" dry! dry!...and the minute it went wet they went all marti pellow

[Thundery wintry showers]

It might surprise some, but I do agree with a lot of what Bottesford (#24) said. Actually, therein lies another reason why I'm not the biggest fan of the "Azores High ridging into the south and dry but often cloudy westerlies on its northern flank" pattern- it's probably ideal for many afternoon outdoor activities but come the evening the cloud and wind can prevent it from feeling warm enough to sit outside during the evenings, particularly the further north you go. Still, it's miles better for sitting outdoors than the other dry cloudy pattern that often affects Tyneside, involving 13C and a north-easterly wind!

Thinking about it, it's been pretty notable that since the 4th June it's rarely been warm enough in Norwich to be able to sit outside comfortably in the evenings despite many of the evenings having sunshine and not much wind- this doesn't match up with my recollections of the previous three Junes here, which reflects its general coolness so far. Today was quite warm in the afternoon but again it got chilly by mid-evening.

[ZONE 51]

Am still waiting for the long hot summer with shades of 76 that was predicted on this very site..Guess the 2nd weekend in August when we see 25c will be it

shade 1 = drought... although there are downpours in places, the drought damage is done to farms already. the drought cause being the dry spring and previous months, but we have july and august that could also bring drought, if june carries on wet then we may be saved from that.

shade 2 = its only june the 17th.. it is quite possible that 8 wks of heat and dry could evolve this summer, so i would not say that shades of 76 is not this summer just yet!! but we are in an ice age so you could be right about waiting until august...

.

Edited June 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

In terms of teleconnections, i believe that there are reasons as to why we are experiencing a poor summer.

The final statospheric warming was late this year which has resulted in an above average statosphere which has only just returned to average, given the lag this in itself is not a good omen given that a warmer than average statosphere is statistically linked to -AO conditions and -AO conditions are linked to below average temperatures in the UK.

The second thing which may be causing our poor weather is the QBO. The QBO peaked in April and is now weakening in a +QBO mode which means that there is a weak signal for northern blocking (-AO) and a weak signal for a mid-lattiude trough. Because of the warm statosphere, the signal for northern blocking has been enhanced.

The third and final factor is the weakening weak La Nina (MEI values still negative) which while negating the northern blocking signal a litte, is amplyfying the signal for a mid-lattitude trough which is encouraging a mobile pattern.

Given that the stratosphere is back to average, it is feasable that the weakening La Nina may cancel out the signal for northern blocking during July and perhaps August however the signal for mid-lattitude troughing will be enhanced. During periods of +AO conditions we may see the trough back west with an associated pressure build to the east although during periods of -AO conditions there will be a strong signal for the trough to move east of the UK resulting in northerlies.

Looking to the future, the QBO will move into an -QBO phase during August or September. At this point, the signal for northern blocking allied to a strong mid-lattitude trough signal will result in a cool, wet pattern.

[johnholmes]

interesting post sb

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Cheer up - Solstice next week, it'll, err......pour down probably !!

[MP-R]

I think it wouldn't be such a kick in the teeth if it weren't for the fact that March and April were so dry and sunny. People kept telling me to shut up when I was moaning about how a change to naff weather would come after such a long dry and warm spell, and look what happens!

So far this year, I would say that late winter came in January, spring came in February and early March, summer came in March and April, September came in May and now we've entered deepest darkest October. For me, this month has so far been worse that June 2007 as the first ten days were largely sunny and warm and the first unsettled spell came with thunder. This month however has been a waster since the 5th and the wind has just been ridiculous!

[Rustynailer]

From my past experiences I think that June is wet in the best summers like 95 and 76 and dry and sunny in the worst ones. That's what I think I can remember...

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I think it wouldn't be such a kick in the teeth if it weren't for the fact that March and April were so dry and sunny. People kept telling me to shut up when I was moaning about how a change to naff weather would come after such a long dry and warm spell, and look what happens!

So far this year, I would say that late winter came in January, spring came in February and early March, summer came in March and April, September came in May and now we've entered deepest darkest October. For me, this month has so far been worse that June 2007 as the first ten days were largely sunny and warm and the first unsettled spell came with thunder. This month however has been a waster since the 5th and the wind has just been ridiculous!

So are we expecting snow in August ??

[Weather-history]

From my past experiences I think that June is wet in the best summers like 95 and 76 and dry and sunny in the worst ones. That's what I think I can remember...

Unfortunately the Junes of 1976 and 1995 were both very dry.

[Terminal Moraine]

From my past experiences I think that June is wet in the best summers like 95 and 76 and dry and sunny in the worst ones. That's what I think I can remember...

With the best will in the world, your post highlights the usefulness of keeping detailed records and the fallibility of memory as June in both of these years was very dry.

Unfortunately the Junes of 1976 and 1995 were both very dry.

Ah you beat me to it, Mr D.

[ohno]

Lets face it the summers in the UK apart from the odd good Summer that everyone remembers because they were good,summers are usually unsettled with the odd good week thrown in now and again..

Summer 2011 will turn out to be poor again.Why? well there is no sign of it settling down for along time and when it does it will be to late yet again..if you want good summers go south

[chionomaniac]

Good to see you have kept the trolling up ohno. You must remember to do it in every post. Well done so far.

[ohno]

Is that what you do to get people banned accuse them of trolling? You seem to be following me around?

[Methuselah]

Can't really see where summer might have gone to, myself...So far, it's reminding me of the summers of the 'sixties...And, there's already been more thunder than there was in the whole of last year!

Why all the doom and gloom? :unsure:

[Skip Spence]

Why all the doom and gloom?

Should have thought that was patently obvious. Although these conditions doubtless suit some, the overwhelming majority I think would relish the prospect of being able to pack away umbrellas and coats, get out and about in some warm sunshine and perhaps plan a barbeque or evening drink in the garden. Not looking very likely any time soon although I truly hope I'm wrong about that.

[chionomaniac]

Is that what you do to get people banned accuse them of trolling? You seem to be following me around?

I know the game that you are playing and am quite happy to follow you around as an anti-troll! I won't need to post if you don't troll and life will be good, eh?

[TEITS]

Why all the doom and gloom? :unsure:

Simple really its because our current weather is crap.

How I wish I was outside enjoying a lovely BBQ followed by spending the evening sitting outside with friends enjoying a few beers. This followed by a thunderstorm moving up from France during the early hrs.

None of these are possible at the moment and so far this year I haven't heard one rumble of thunder and this is incredible considering my location.

[MP-R]

So are we expecting snow in August ??

Haha, who knows, I ruddy well hope not! :lol: I hope the weather just gets a grip before the turn of the month and realises that it's summer. I love this weather at any time of the year EXCEPT summer.