El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Lauren]

So realistically if I took up position in my garden on Monday night, how good a show will I see? I cannot go to the coast.

[bazookabob]

Just wondering if anyone up north would be interested in doing a car-share? as now is about the time were closer to being sure of the target area and costs involved. A 4-man team would be much cheaper than individuals having to fork out for bus/train/plane tickets and with pre-package meals easier on logistics aswell. Unfortunately I don't have a car myself but anyone interested (I know there's quite a few we could form a team with) PM me, and we can get a topic going.

There's still a day and a half to arrange things so its not too late just yet.

Id love to go for a drive if it wasnt for the fact i cant afford any spare petrol lol! Any rich members up north feel like donating to the cause lol??

bb

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

Have had a few Pm's asking about tagging along in a convoy on Monday but unfortunately this one is out of my hands. On an ordinary Chase in the Uk i would have no worries at all about having 3,4 even 5 cars in convoy BUT The BBC Have said specifically due to filming that only their Hire car and our Support Vehicle are allowed with their Film Crew

Our Set-Up will consist as follows, We will have 3G Wifi Access with Netweathers 5 Minute Radar, Car 2 will be Live Streaming in Full HD With GPS Positioning showing where we are in relation to any Storms that "might" beat the CAP On Monday, If no storms breach the Cap then we will re-position probably to the South of London for the expected MCS Which should hit Monday night into Tuesday. We will also have 2 way Car Radio for navigating etc and also have plenty of Cameras and Video Cameras with us.

Paul S

[knocker]

Latest from the METO.

London and the South East.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Very hot and humid on Monday, perhaps with an evening thunderstorm. Rather cloudy, cooler on Tuesday, outbreaks of thundery rain likely to herald an even cooler, fresher day Wednesday.

Updated: 1505 on Sat 25 Jun 2011

[DubWeatherAddict]

Even though i was on Tour 3 in the states, i feel very jealous for those of u all planning there trips!,

I would love to get on a cheap flight to london to join in with the lads ... THATS U DAVE! ha...

But ye , this late a flight from Dublin to london and back is 150 at least ... So ye , ill be on this by the looks of it.

But ye , im excited for everyone! , hope ya s get some action!

Ill be enjoying reading the reports from everyone on this.

Ps... some1 should ring paddy power ( or whichever bookies yous hav over ther ) and ask for the odds of a tornado touching down in the SE on monday ha

Hope yas get can get one of these ! ( Tour 3 Chase day 2 )

Edited June 25, 2011 by DubWeatherAddict

[Biggin]

Hi Guys

Have had a few Pm's asking about tagging along in a convoy on Monday but unfortunately this one is out of my hands. On an ordinary Chase in the Uk i would have no worries at all about having 3,4 even 5 cars in convoy BUT The BBC Have said specifically due to filming that only their Hire car and our Support Vehicle are allowed with their Film Crew

Our Set-Up will consist as follows, We will have 3G Wifi Access with Netweathers 5 Minute Radar, Car 2 will be Live Streaming in Full HD With GPS Positioning showing where we are in relation to any Storms that "might" beat the CAP On Monday, If no storms breach the Cap then we will re-position probably to the South of London for the expected MCS Which should hit Monday night into Tuesday. We will also have 2 way Car Radio for navigating etc and also have plenty of Cameras and Video Cameras with us.

Paul S

Paul what does breach the Cap mean and how is it important ???

[Norfolk Sheep]

Again, BASED ON CURRENT MODELS definitely!

If you are able to drive at all, all the better!

Correction from my previous post btw - EA still progged at 3000 CAPE based on GFS 06z!

Based on the 06z I wouldn't say so no.

If there is any eastward swerve or indeed you're anticipating that to be the case, then yes. I think above all else we could be at the mercy of the surface low...technically, they should push continental storms north and west, although this will be subject to its track.

We shouldn't underestimate either the potential for troughs to develop ahead of the CF...if a trough were to initiate convection of EA, then I'd detach emotionally from greenhouses and your nice cars lol

And polytunnels?

[lewisosd]

The GPS could lead people to you like light to the flies Paul! Take i this is still being streamed live?

[Buckster76]

GPS is a good point that plus the Radar - people won't struggle

lol

Edited June 25, 2011 by Buckster76

[Paul Sherman]

All the build up of the heat tomorrow and during the day on Sunday and Monday will be creating the Cape Values you are seeing on the Charts at the moment, this is turn creates a Cap that needs to be overcome for a Storm to form, Cumulus clouds will turn into TCU (Towering Cumulus) and these will get ever higher into the Atmosphere until a Pileus Cap will be seen, this is the lid in the atmosphere holding all the energy down, if those TCU Can power through the Cap then any Storm that forms has all the energy above the Cap to tap into. We really need a forcing mechanism for this (Eg Cold Front) but Nick hinted earlier that converging winds across East Anglia might get a Storm to form and hence "Breach the Cap"

The MCS Has no such problem as Mid level instability will overspread the SE In the form of Accas clouds and this will form Multi Cell Storms that will hopefully form an MCS Which spreads North-Eastwards overnight Monday. These are totally different storms to the Surface Based Storms we hope to see on Monday Afternoon.

Paul S

[we1330]

And polytunnels?

Like your signature, would say 'Lucky so 'n so!

[Paul Sherman]

The GPS could lead people to you like light to the flies Paul! Take i this is still being streamed live?

Lol - Yep we could always turn the GPS On the Netweather Streamer Off I suppose

[Neilsouth]

So are we expecting atleast some sun tomorrow?, doesn't feel like heat is on the way today... Cloudy and Very windy, though i admit charts look amazing

[lewisosd]

Lol - Yep we could always turn the GPS On the Netweather Streamer Off I suppose

Lols! Keep it on that way I will get a good idea of whether a decent cell will be heading my way!

[Summer Sun]

So are we expecting atleast some sun tomorrow?, doesn't feel like heat is on the way today... Cloudy and Very windy, though i admit charts look amazing

Wide spread sun and heat tomorrow, only a few showers in the NE with a chance of thunder, cooler in Scotland though maybe 20c in Edinburgh.

[Neilsouth]

Good good, i could do with a relax in the garden... my health has gone down hill lately

[nanu]

Is it heat were looking for, for these storms to form monday afternoon?.. just curious because if monday is expected to hit 31 then the concrete jungle of london would most likely hit 33-35 maybe? if so then im def gonna keep my eyes open around here then.

[Summer Sun]

Great Yarmouth has a 71% chance of a Storm on Tuesday afternoon with 19.33mm of rain through the day, and a 0% chance on Monday, look's like I'll miss it, can't say I'm disappointed with 29.1c forecast i more than happy.

[weatherobsuk]

Carrying on the car-share discussion here (Northerners/Midland folk) anyone interested in volunteering.

[Stu Robinson]

I am at work in Redditch – South of Birmingham until 17:00 on Monday. I am not interested in the warm sector over the South East (2500 j/kg CAPE, -8 LI’s) as this just spells CAP to me. Best dynamics by far are West of the CAPE pool along the eastward moving cold front – providing that storms don’t get undercut by the cold front – I expect the best tornado chance @18:00 to be Warwick to Norwich. As things stand right now.

[MR CB]

Exciting prospects for Monday 6pm onwards...I will of course be on the look out right over the English Channel and may try to get some overdue photos. If it all kicks off I can post on here from my smartphone.

A long uncomfortable day at work, but an MCS for the evening. Will be cloud and radar watching all day. As ever all the user input and model/charts on here are appreciated.

El-Gordo indeed...haha here is the forecast for Sunday and Monday! :-)

Edited June 25, 2011 by MR CB

[A.J]

For us west midlanders listening in to all the SE talk, I'd wet myself laughing if the models suddenly had a change of heart and had an MCS run through the west country into the midlands....lol

Anyhoos, I guess those poor storm starved folk in the SE deserve something decent this year, so now's the chance.....lets see if you guys can grab a cracker of a storm and beat this beast into second place for storm of the year!...

[Paul Sherman]

I am at work in Redditch – South of Birmingham until 17:00 on Monday. I am not interested in the warm sector over the South East (2500 j/kg CAPE, -8 LI’s) as this just spells CAP to me. Best dynamics by far are West of the CAPE pool along the eastward moving cold front – providing that storms don’t get undercut by the cold front – I expect the best tornado chance @18:00 to be Warwick to Norwich. As things stand right now.

Yep thats the current thinking Stu

Going to be heading up towards the Fens, East Anglia area Monday afternoon and then scoot back south to film any MCS That forms. I agree the best chance of anything Stormwise will be East of Birmingham towards Cambs, Lincs, West Anglia region Monday Late Afternoon for Tornado and Funnel Chances.

Paul S

[knocker]

The GFS seems to have upgraded the SB CAPE a tad.

[lewisosd]

Yep thats the current thinking Stu

Going to be heading up towards the Fens, East Anglia area Monday afternoon and then scoot back south to film any MCS That forms. I agree the best chance of anything Stormwise will be East of Birmingham towards Cambs, Lincs, West Anglia region Monday Late Afternoon for Tornado and Funnel Chances.

Paul S

The Fens - awsome! Nice open areas. Watched a couple of storms over the Fens before. Great area apart from the bumpy narrow roads and drainage ditches either side