Model Output Discussion

[Thunder Snow]

How is Sunday the 17th looking, we are off to light water valley and would like it to be atleast dry lol

[shedhead]

i think your being abit picky there mate.... i think we all except that we are having so far a pretty average/slightly above (well, perhaps not in the northwest) summer, but what i and im guessing other mean by 'summer' is a decent hot spell. this is what many look for in summer, as others look for cold / snow in winter. i dont think its unreasonable to look for something sunny and hot, extremes are interesting after all!plus hot spells arent exactly something rare, so whilst we know its not spain, i dont think anybody expects wall to wall heat! ... and maybe gp's 'shades of 76' prediction ramped up the expectations...

anyway..

the 06z isnt a bad run at all, and would produce some hot spells although nothing lasting very long. in all it would produce some very nice weather.

I'd be interested to know where you see any hot spells on the 06 run?

[Summer Sun]

I'd be interested to know where you see any hot spells on the 06 run?

I agree other than deep in FI the models show nothing other than average temperatures maybe mid 20's at times, so I don't know which models you're looking at mushymanrob as I wouldn't call mid 20's hot, that's more warm to me.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10817.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13217.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn15617.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18017.png

As you can see nothing hot there, just an average week really.The only hot weather I can see there is in the Med and around Spain and Portugal

Edited July 8, 2011 by Gavin D

[Polar Maritime]

I think that's a fair analysis of things so far, TWS...At least no-one can accuse this summer's weather of not being interesting. IMO, that's the beauty of British weather: come rain or shine, at least there's almost always something of interest.

And how exciting would model-watching from a tent in the Sahara Desert be? No signs of any imminent pattern-change chaps; sunshine's nailed-on until T+456976543...???

I know its Atacama desert in South America and not the Sahara, but it shure does look more interesting at the moment than the Uk

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14067245

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree other than deep in FI the models show nothing other than average temperatures maybe mid 20's at times, so I don't know which models you're looking at mushymanrob as I wouldn't call mid 20's hot, that's more warm to me.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10817.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13217.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn15617.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18017.png

As you can see nothing hot there, just an average week really.The only hot weather I can see there is in the Med and around Spain and Portugal

Mid 20s is still above avarage and in any sun in early afternoon would feel hot in my opinion, particularly with 75% relative humidity.

[mushymanrob]

I'd be interested to know where you see any hot spells on the 06 run?

i did say breif hot spells... and they are in fi, but i was refering to the run as a whole.

I agree other than deep in FI the models show nothing other than average temperatures maybe mid 20's at times, so I don't know which models you're looking at mushymanrob as I wouldn't call mid 20's hot, that's more warm to me.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10817.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13217.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn15617.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18017.png

As you can see nothing hot there, just an average week really.The only hot weather I can see there is in the Med and around Spain and Portugal

those predicted temps are notoriously inaccurate, i wouldnt take any notice of them. and hot? well id suggest 25c+ is hot, whether you call it warm or not.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's GFS shows high pressure lasting till around Thursday before another area of low pressure sweeps in,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Then just as you think things can't get worse they do!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

The only good thing is this is FI, but July is looking ever more like it will follow June, with no signs of a prolonged warm spell.

[johnholmes]

To try and help with what hot/cold in July means for different areas see the link below

Tonight's GFS shows high pressure lasting till around Thursday before another area of low pressure sweeps in,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png

Then just as you think things can't get worse they do!

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2281.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

The only good thing is this is FI, but July is looking ever more like it will follow June, with no signs of a prolonged warm spell.

and nothing will change I'm afraid until the charts I keep harping on about show signs of a major shift in wave length.

Edited July 8, 2011 by johnholmes

[shedhead]

Decent agreement between the 12 UKMO and GFS at T+144hrs, with Atlantic low pressure back in charge after a quieter, more settled first half of the week. Post T+144hrs GFS paints a fairly dismal picture

if fine, dry and warm weather is you thing, but if you enjoy a rather cool, mixed bag with the chance of some decent convective activity then this run should be right up your street. Will need to see if ECM joins

the party later, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't paint a very similar picture to the other two at T+144hrs, effectively making it a full house.

Edited July 8, 2011 by shedhead

[January Snowstorm]

Yes looks like turning quite unsettled later next week yet again.

Looks like calls for a warm dry Summer were well off the mark, certainly for the West and Northwest anyway.

Indeed over here in Ireland it's been distinctly cool and I dont think anywhere has recorded a temp above about 22C

Of course most of the time it's between 14-17C which really is below average for mid July.

[J10]

After this week of heavy showers, it does look a decent period of dry settled weather from the end of this week into mid next week. After that a usual north south split, but from an IMBY point of view, better next week than this. . .

[mushymanrob]

and nothing will change I'm afraid until the charts I keep harping on about show signs of a major shift in wave length.

... and what would bring about such a shift in wavelength? if you dont mind me asking!

[johnholmes]

... and what would bring about such a shift in wavelength? if you dont mind me asking!

I really don't know mushy is the honest short answer.

I could theorise but it would just be that.

Data like the IRI prediction for a 'neutral ENSO signal through this summer into autumn-to me is an unknown as to what type of weather generally occurs over Europe and UK in that situation.

The MJO is another matter, no doubt affected by the ENSO signal. The MJO currently and for several weeks is orbiting around the origin point, so trying to predict where it might be in a week or two is even more difficult than usual. Look at the previous predictions about where it would go. To me, I stand to be corrected by anyone with more understanding, but it seems to have had a success rate of no more than 50% if that.

Down then to AO and NAOand they are really only useful as a guide for 15-25 days out. At 7-10 days they are often fairly accurate, after that, as with all predictors, their accuracy tails away. They are of course affected by ENSO anyway.

So how long is a piece of string? How to break the current pattern you ask.

I don't know.

obviously I have not mentioned all the paramaters forecasters look at for trying to predict the weather a week 10-20 days or several months ahead, no doubt folks can help with that and offer ideas?

Edited July 8, 2011 by johnholmes

[summer blizzard]

I really don't know mushy is the honest short answer.

I could theorise but it would just be that.

Data like the IRI prediction for a 'neutral ENSO signal through this summer into autumn-to me is an unknown as to what type of weather generally occurs over Europe and UK in that situation.

The MJO is another matter, no doubt affected by the ENSO signal. The MJO currently and for several weeks is orbiting around the origin point, so trying to predict where it might be in a week or two is even more difficult than usual. Look at the previous predictions about where it would go. To me, I stand to be corrected by anyone with more understanding, but it seems to have had a success rate of no more than 50% if that.

Down then to AO and NAOand they are really only useful as a guide for 15-25 days out. At 7-10 days they are often fairly accurate, after that, as with all predictors, their accuracy tails away. They are of course affected by ENSO anyway.

So how long is a piece of string? How to break the current pattern you ask.

I don't know.

obviously I have not mentioned all the paramaters forecasters look at for trying to predict the weather a week 10-20 days or several months ahead, no doubt folks can help with that and offer ideas?

A neutral ENSO signal effectively gives power to the PDO and QBO in terms of downstream effects on the UK. Because the QBO is now easterly (just about) and strengthening, this gives scope for a persistant -AO signal, hence why the GFS12z was so dire.

GFS ensembles seem near the mark, no real heatwave in sight.

[Summer Sun]

ECM Looks fairly settled till at least Wednesday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Edit

ECM also develops a low by Friday

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

Plenty of High pressure around, but will any of it make it to us

ECM is still keen to build the high pressure by next weekend

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Edited July 8, 2011 by Gavin D

[mushymanrob]

I really don't know mushy is the honest short answer.

I could theorise but it would just be that.

Data like the IRI prediction for a 'neutral ENSO signal through this summer into autumn-to me is an unknown as to what type of weather generally occurs over Europe and UK in that situation.

The MJO is another matter, no doubt affected by the ENSO signal. The MJO currently and for several weeks is orbiting around the origin point, so trying to predict where it might be in a week or two is even more difficult than usual. Look at the previous predictions about where it would go. To me, I stand to be corrected by anyone with more understanding, but it seems to have had a success rate of no more than 50% if that.

Down then to AO and NAOand they are really only useful as a guide for 15-25 days out. At 7-10 days they are often fairly accurate, after that, as with all predictors, their accuracy tails away. They are of course affected by ENSO anyway.

So how long is a piece of string? How to break the current pattern you ask.

I don't know.

obviously I have not mentioned all the paramaters forecasters look at for trying to predict the weather a week 10-20 days or several months ahead, no doubt folks can help with that and offer ideas?

lord... an absolute mountain of influences to try to desyphor and understand...no wonder weather forecasting is so hard to get right. i think if jo public had any idea just how complicated it is they might have more respect for those who are trying to interpret it.

[Gibby]

No summary from me tomorrow. Working away in Lyme Regis tomorrow but hope to come back Sunday to report a large Anticyclone settling over the UK for the next two weeks. Well we can but dream.

UKMO tonight shows a ridge of high pressure moving slowly in off the Atlantic on Tuesday following a fairly showery weekend in a slack North or Northwest flow. By midweek weakening Low pressure advances from off the Atlantic with a return of the risk of heavy showers.

GFS shows a weak pressure gradient over the UK late this weekend and early next week with occasional showers still scattered about. Then as per UKMO Low pressure moves east from off the Atlantic towards Scotland with rain or showers returning, especially in the North. From then on the weather remains distinctly disturbed as Low pressure spawns west of Britain and moves ESE across the UK with rain or heavy showers for all at times. Winds are shown to turn Northerly late in the run with plenty of daytime heavy showers across the UK and temperatures near normal or a bit below.

ECM offers little relief either tonight with the showery theme (albeit less widespread) lasting through the weekend and into the new week though with a lot of dry weather too. Then from midweek Low pressure drifts slowly into the UK from the Atlantic and on SE into Europe. The weather would be a very familiar mix of sunshine and showers some of which would be very heavy with hail and thunder in places. By day 10 things remain very unsettled as Low pressure moving North over NW Europe engages with new Atlantic Low pressure moving SE from Iceland maintaining the showery and relatively cool theme going.

All in all not much good news for sunworshippers tonight I'm afraid as the big three seem to be firming up on a continuation of disturbed, changeable weather with heavy rain at times and just short drier breaks, notably early next week. In the 7-14 day range the weather if anything becomes even more unsettled with Low pressure moving in frequently off the Atlantic as per GFS and latterly ECM.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm finding it hard to judge whether the start of next week will be a bright one or a cloudier one as we develop a very weak Northerly flow but we manage to tap into some fairly cool uppers(below 5C) for the time of year in Scotland in particular but on the otherhand, looking at the charts, it does suggest it could be quite cloudy but dry, one too keep an eye on in forecasts in the day to come.

Hints of 2007 in the output this evening as those lows will more likely to bring cloudy with outbreaks of rain and very little sunshine so we could be heading into a dull period in terms of sunshine amounts fairly soon.

[95 Degrees]

Finally a hint of something possibly summery showing in GFS 0z this morning at the end of next week for southern areas at least, just a tease though being warm rather than Hot in southern areas but still more like July before core of heat moves back in Iberia and Southern France but looks quite decent for the next week at least with showers becoming less frequent it would seem.

not nailed on that warmth though next week, and ECM isn't agreeing with GFS with a cool NW/W flow being introduced at the end of next week but

not as bad on the models as some make it out to be.

Edited July 9, 2011 by BrightInBrighton

[mushymanrob]

I'm finding it hard to judge whether the start of next week will be a bright one or a cloudier one as we develop a very weak Northerly flow but we manage to tap into some fairly cool uppers(below 5C) for the time of year in Scotland in particular but on the otherhand, looking at the charts, it does suggest it could be quite cloudy but dry, one too keep an eye on in forecasts in the day to come.

Hints of 2007 in the output this evening as those lows will more likely to bring cloudy with outbreaks of rain and very little sunshine so we could be heading into a dull period in terms of sunshine amounts fairly soon.

the fax suggests itll be cloudy, or at least cloud dominated

after yesterdays runs that had some potential for something warm to evolve, this morning the charts only show a rather depressing picture. after the next few days quietening down of the weather, its set to go downhill again, with yet another deep low heading our way, the jet aimed firmly into northern france and a run of charts youd expect in autumn... (so are we heading towards a sunny/settled sep/oct?...lol..

its looking this morning like the chances of anything hot and sunny have disappeared, the general theme is away from 'summer', and like last year theres a gradual slip into more autumnal conditions.

i cannot remember an august that has been hot and sunny after an average june/july... there probably has been, but thats a rare event, and with no sign (still) from the teleconnections of anything changing.... im willing to have a virtual bet that there will be no hot spell this year... (thats 3+ consecutive days of 25c+ in the cet zone).

thats one bet i hope to lose....

[Evening thunder]

I notice all 3 main models this morning have the trough that was due for Wednesday/Thursday weakening before it gets to the UK now with the ridge next week lasting until Friday or Saturday now. Warmth will depend on the uppers with the GFS having temps comfortably into the low-mid 20's across much of England and Wales at least, with the ECM having slightly cooler uppers.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (GFS chart will probably update to the 06z run)

Surely this is a good development for those that like warm settled weather, especially as it isn't in the depths of FI?

I actually prefer the runs this morning to yesterdays runs, for the reason above and they have more scope for brief warmer spells rather than just cool low pressure over us all the time.

The ECM ensembles aren't the best though, with the ensemble mean having us in a NW flow after the weekend and the coolest place at our latitude on those charts as usual.

Edited July 9, 2011 by Stormmad26

[J10]

Some better charts this morning from each of the 3 main models.

GFS builds a weak area of High Pressure over the UK, keeping it mostly dry and settled, until next Weekend when low pressure starts to edge in from the North west. However after this signs of High Pressure ridging up from the south West.

UKMO builds a ridge of high Pressure from the South West, and this looks fairly secure to the end of the run (Next Friday)

ECM also build a ridge of High Pressure from the South West, which looks pretty solid until Saturday. when Low Pressure pushes in from the North West.

All in all, not a bad week in prospect, mostly dry with temps nudging into the low 20s for southern areas. Cloud amounts may well be variable. At this stage looking fairly unsettled next weekend, but it makes a change for the unsettled weather to be at T+168, rather than the settled weather.

[shedhead]

All in all a fair improvement across the model suite this morning, but I still think it's worth remaining guarded as to whether this is the start of a pattern change, or simply a longer fine spell in what remains an

essentially unsettled pattern. The next 3 or 4 runs should go a long way to deciding which, but definately a cause for optimism if fine, dry and warm weather is your want.

[mushymanrob]

I notice all 3 main models this morning have the trough that was due for Wednesday/Thursday weakening before it gets to the UK now with the ridge next week lasting until Friday or Saturday now. Warmth will depend on the uppers with the GFS having temps comfortably into the low-mid 20's across much of England and Wales at least, with the ECM having slightly cooler uppers.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (GFS chart will probably update to the 06z run)

Surely this is a good development for those that like warm settled weather, especially as it isn't in the depths of FI?

I actually prefer the runs this morning to yesterdays runs, for the reason above and they have more scope for brief warmer spells rather than just cool low pressure over us all the time.

The ECM ensembles aren't the best though, with the ensemble mean having us in a NW flow after the weekend and the coolest place at our latitude on those charts as usual.

i dont agree, this settled spell was always progged, so its not a development! lol. but its always going to be brief. i dont like it because theres likely to be alot of cloud associated with it, (see the fax), and it fails to build (at this stage)and gives way to another deep trough next weekend driven by a southerly (nw/se) tracking jet. as i see it its just a continuation of this summers pattern, ridge/trough/ridge/trough. now thats ok , its pretty fair/pleasant, but theres no scope for any heat to build. so from a perspective of looking for a hot spell, theres nothing on offer. the consolation is that the outlook is fairly average, with a mixed bag.

looks like im not agreeing with posters this morning! :lol: i dont think theres anything 'better' this morning, theres alot less high pressure around compared to yesterday mornings runs (the runs in total, not just reliable)and the jet into fi looks stronger and heading our way/just south of us, troughs look deeper, and whilst yesterday mornings saw a shallow trough over us/to our south (ecm) this wasnt bad as there was some warm air advected around and into fi had the 10c isotherm upper...thats gone now... hence the reasons im not in agreement with you optimists!

[Backtrack]

Going to Cornwall for a week, St Ives, and I must say it's looking like I picked a good week to go!

High pressure in charge, giving days of sunshine, and temperatures of around 20C. Bliss!