Model Output Discussion

[bluearmy]

It's warm and sunny in London and has been for much of the day.

apart from when it was raining

shouldnt this be in 'current conditions'?

slow, slow improvment as the higher thicknesses and mean jet position egde ever northwards over time. mean upper ridge still evident over greenland at day 10 on the ecm ens mean. maybe we might see a sustained countrywide settled spell come the back end of the month - however, no extended model output to support this.

[mushymanrob]

right... heres my first shot at trying to interpret what these charts are saying. both the ecm and gfs @ +168-+240 suggest a strong mid atlantic ridge with the azh linking with the greenland high. both models suggest a trough for most of the time either close to our northwest (gfs) or slacker area of low pressure over us (ecm). that would suggest (if im right) that conditions are likely to be similar to those were will be experiencing over the next three days here. so its suggesting that the 'end of weekend/early next weeks' ridge will not be a lasting feature and the next atlantic trough will repeat this weeks events, next week.

so no sign of anything settled and hot.

please correct me if im wrong!

[UV-RAY]

right... heres my first shot at trying to interpret what these charts are saying. both the ecm and gfs @ +168-+240 suggest a strong mid atlantic ridge with the azh linking with the greenland high. both models suggest a trough for most of the time either close to our northwest (gfs) or slacker area of low pressure over us (ecm). that would suggest (if im right) that conditions are likely to be similar to those were will be experiencing over the next three days here. so its suggesting that the 'end of weekend/early next weeks' ridge will not be a lasting feature and the next atlantic trough will repeat this weeks events, next week.

so no sign of anything settled and hot.

please correct me if im wrong!

Pretty good assessment mushy, much in line with your own thoughts really.

[Slowpoke]

Actually the last 9 days or so have been fantastic up here in NW England. Even after the miserable morning we had today it's now sunny and feels warm at 19C.

[Mark Burton]

Heat being shown again on the 6z GFS after being dropped on the previous run, of course it's well into FI so fairly unlikely to happen but look how widespread and hot the colours are!

And by the way, for those going off topic with the traditional North vs South argument, firstly 30C is likely at some point almost every year , (in the south-east) but southern members need to understand that people in the North and North-west have experienced a below average summer even by their low standards so far, whist we in the south have had an average summer so far so they have a right to complain about their miserable weather.

My Son has just moved down to Buckinghamshire from Cumbria - he thinks he's in the South of France now!!

[IanM]

Models? Anyone fancy discussing them?

[TonyH]

Actually the last 9 days or so have been fantastic up here in NW England. Even after the miserable morning we had today it's now sunny and feels warm at 19C.

Here too! It always seems the case of over expectations of dry, hot weather, which is a rarity for most of the UK, usually limited to just one or two short spells in a Summer, and we just have had two short warm/ quite hot spells as you infer, on top of a fantastic Spring.

I feel that people should be able to refer to their own locality with respect to the models, or to the whole of the UK, what does it matter?

A tendency for people to bury their heads in the apparent gloom of westerly dominated models, which have in fact resulted in a far from poor Summer so far, and ahead by the looks of things. These showery set ups are not poor, but interesting, providing a nice balance of warm, sunny spells, cloud formations, and exciting downpours. As ever, some areas will largely escape, as has Warwickshire, with few showers, and plenty of warm sunshine.

Edited July 6, 2011 by Tonyh

[Downpour]

apart from when it was raining

shouldnt this be in 'current conditions'?

slow, slow improvment as the higher thicknesses and mean jet position egde ever northwards over time. mean upper ridge still evident over greenland at day 10 on the ecm ens mean. maybe we might see a sustained countrywide settled spell come the back end of the month - however, no extended model output to support this.

It rained first thing this morning and has been dry and quite sunny ever since. Normal people would call it a nice summer's day. Not "cool and unsettled" which is the point I have been trying to make!

[Hairy Celt]

Models? Anyone fancy discussing them?

Apparently not. Perhaps Mark Burton's son is one.

[shedhead]

Having returned from a few days holiday I was hoping (perhaps against hope really) that the models would have come up with some fundamental changes in the overall pattern as we head towards mid July, but

sadly this does not appear to be so. As has often been the case recently GFS paints a rather better picture than ECM, but of course it's all relative, with ECM suggesting the general improvement next week

quickly gets eroded by a SE'erly tracking low pressure system. Looking at FI it's reasonable to say that if it comes off we should see a return to fine, warm and summery conditions from mid month, but it's a big IF and

to be fair we've seen at all before on many occasions at post T+192hrs.

Edited July 6, 2011 by shedhead

[Harry]

Models? Anyone fancy discussing them?

Not a great deal to discuss IMO as they diverge so much there's little to say other than "GFS says this, ECMWF says this, UKMO says this" and then toss a coin.

[Summer Sun]

GFS Now showing a deep area of LP west of Ireland from Monday this slowly move towards the UK and eases if it did make it to us though is would be quite nasty for the time of year, hopefully it will stay away

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

Next week see's things settle down with temps around the high teens to low 20's in the south.

By late FI more Low Pressure moves close to the UK extending from Greenland

Edited July 6, 2011 by Gavin D

[bluearmy]

right... heres my first shot at trying to interpret what these charts are saying. both the ecm and gfs @ +168-+240 suggest a strong mid atlantic ridge with the azh linking with the greenland high. both models suggest a trough for most of the time either close to our northwest (gfs) or slacker area of low pressure over us (ecm). that would suggest (if im right) that conditions are likely to be similar to those were will be experiencing over the next three days here. so its suggesting that the 'end of weekend/early next weeks' ridge will not be a lasting feature and the next atlantic trough will repeat this weeks events, next week.

so no sign of anything settled and hot.

please correct me if im wrong!

rob, i know that quite a few posters like to use these charts. however, i am 99.9% certain that these are a mean representaion of the operational 500mb pattern for days 8 through 10. therefore, if the op is out of line with the ens at this timescale (often the case), the charts can be a bit misleading. JH makes a fair point that even though the surface pressure may be quite different, the 500mb flow is less likely to vary too much between the op and ens. i think it much better to wait for the NOAA cpc output around 9pm. again 500mb but with forecaster input mon thru fri, a much better indicator of where we're likely headed. the only downside for this output is that it doesnt include the most recent ecm 12z run in its workings.

[Gordon]

GFS Now showing a deep area of LP west of Ireland from Monday this slowly move towards the UK and eases if it did make it to us though is would be quite nasty for the time of year, hopefully it will stay away

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

Next week see's things settle down with temps around the high teens to low 20's in the south.

By late FI more Low Pressure moves close to the UK extending from Greenland

Possible Low pressure extending from Greenland

now that's Irony in it's finest form

[Summer Sun]

As you can see well out in FI so hopefully it will not be showing in a few day's

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

[Buzzit]

Hello All

With the GFS op run not looking great I thought it would be a good time to share the NCEP ensemble products and the great 'training' page they have provided to assist with better understanding of the output. Even though the training page is old the data is up to date showing the weather to remain average or below average for the foreseeable...

http://www.weather.gov/nuopc/index6.shtml

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/spotlight/12012001/

[k19]

Im not gonna lie i thought that lifted indexes like these on friday

And a storm risk like this

would have sparked more model discussion as they suggest the whole country is very likely to see some interesting weather in the short range

[Coopsy]

It rained first thing this morning and has been dry and quite sunny ever since. Normal people would call it a nice summer's day. Not "cool and unsettled" which is the point I have been trying to make!

Wow do you get paid by a company to write pedantic posts online? You must make a fortune.

Back to model output discussion - it's going to be interesting for the beginning of next week if the models follow that thought with regards to the LP, however I am hoping for the settled weather in the south as I return for a nice break to the UK then....lots of model watching in the week ahead

[Summer Sun]

ECM is looking fine for next week,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Temps from high teen's to low 20's, should feel quite pleasant in clear spells.

There's not much else to say really, it could be better, but it could be a lot worse, with high pressure looking likely to take hold things should settle down, high pressure may start to lose its grip by next Friday but that's a long way off.

[Paul]

Im not gonna lie i thought that lifted indexes like these on friday

And a storm risk like this

would have sparked more model discussion as they suggest the whole country is very likely to see some interesting weather in the short range

Plenty of chat in the storm discussions:

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/7-severe-weather-discussion-spring-and-summer/

[Gibby]

UKMO looks very similar to this morning with Low pressure edging away NE over the weekend with a ridge of high pressure settling over the UK on Tuesday. Heavy showers from now until Sunday before they lessen from the SW thereon.

GFS also takes Low pressure away NE over the latter half of the weekend. Following on will be a ridge of high pressure giving a couple of dry days ahead of Low pressure rolling back in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain. as it moves east over Scotland it fills bringing showers again to many places in the process. Further out into FI pressure remains High to the SW with Low pressure continuing to affect many areas at times with short drier periods under Azores ridges periodically especially in the south.

ECM shows the same showery Low pressure moving gently away Northeast late in the weekend. It diverges slightly away from GFS by Tuesday in as much as pressure has fallen over France with the Atlantic ridge over the NW half of the UK giving dry, bright weather there while the far south could see a few more showers in the cool E flow there, aprocess which continues into Wednesday. From day 7-10 the charts show a weak ridge crossing east followed by a return to Atlantic Low pressure moving east into Ireland meaning further rain and showers widely again in rather cool conditions.

There is still little sign of anything warm and settled over the coming two weeks. The transformation from the current cool, showery spell and the longevity of the incoming ridge continues to show problems for the models. ECM makes particular hard work of this showing Low pressure over the near continent midweek possibly affecting conditions in southern England before turning things more generally unsettled and showery again later.

[UV-RAY]

ECM is looking fine for next week,

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

Temps from high teen's to low 20's, should feel quite pleasant in clear spells.

There's not much else to say really, it could be better, but it could be a lot worse, with high pressure looking likely to take hold things should settle down, high pressure may start to lose its grip by next Friday but that's a long way off.

Good post Gavin, your spot on things could be a lot worse. At least we will have a few days of nice warm weather, and to be honest I think that's the best we can hope for looking at what the models are showing.

[Milhouse]

A plume type set up seems so far away looking at the charts but that doesnt mean there wont be some warm settled weather to look forward too. Its now July where some decent warmth can come from quite unspectacular synoptics, just as the last 5 days have shown with 27c reached. It looks like after LP finally moves off to the northeast this weekend we will be left in a relatively cool northerly airstream but as its July most places should reach 20c. Then the high attempts to descend south over the UK for a time which would result in increasing warmth.

[Downpour]

(south east post warning)

Yes a warm and generally pleasant six or seven days ahead after the last of the showery rain clears the south east late afternoon Friday. Models have nothing spectacular for heatseekers, just average pleasant weather in the SE, probably a fairly dry week too.

Edited July 6, 2011 by Downpour

[Backtrack]

ECM is looking fine for next week,

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

Temps from high teen's to low 20's, should feel quite pleasant in clear spells.

There's not much else to say really, it could be better, but it could be a lot worse, with high pressure looking likely to take hold things should settle down, high pressure may start to lose its grip by next Friday but that's a long way off.

It's a pretty slack flow, which can only help sunshine and temperature levels.