Model Output Discussion

[Mark Bayley]

Mushy, the tentative signs for improvement with the trough moving northwards are being supported (again tentatively) by the latest MJO forecasts. With tropical convection set to move eastwards this could drag us out of phase 1 and into the more favourable looking phase 2. This could lead to a drier and more pleasant 2nd half of July with just the NW of Scotland being Atlantic influenced. So all eyes on those MJO forecasts for the next few days. I suspect the trough retreating to the north will be the theme for around 10 days time if the MJO is to influence things.

MJO composite (phase two) for July. Looks better for our prospects with lowering heights over Greenland.

http://raleighwx.ame...Phase2500mb.gif

Although looks as though we will be in phase one for a while longer with the Atlantic influence remaining

http://raleighwx.ame...Phase1500mb.gif

MJO forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep....O/foregfs.shtml

So if i'm reading these charts correctly then improvements as we head into the 2nd half of the month look possible

Edited July 3, 2011 by Mark Bayley

[Downpour]

Another repeat of this week in the SE being hinted at by the models. Hot Sunday through Tuesday, then some meaningful rain midweek (although this may not deliver, as usual east of the Chilterns). By Friday, drying out and maybe a bit brighter come Saturday. Longer term and hints in FI of the Greenland High dissolving and the jet heading north in time for the high summer period of late July and August...

[mushymanrob]

Mushy, the tentative signs for improvement with the trough moving northwards are being supported (again tentatively) by the latest MJO forecasts. With tropical convection set to move eastwards this could drag us out of phase 1 and into the more favourable looking phase 2. This could lead to a drier and more pleasant 2nd half of July with just the NW of Scotland being Atlantic influenced. So all eyes on those MJO forecasts for the next few days. I suspect the trough retreating to the north will be the theme for around 10 days time if the MJO is to influence things.

cheers

hi mushy

the links I use are as below, the first one shows the ECMWF-GFS idea on what the 500mb anomaly charts will look like

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

the second link is into the NOAA weather site for their version

http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/500mb.php

the dotted lines in red or blue indicate what the model is suggesting may be the divergence from the average for the time scale/date in the forecast; red=+ blue=-ve

I tend to use them just once a day although I believe both output 00z and 12z.

Remember that the solid lines are the 500mb 'contours', what the wind flow is predicted to be at 500mb, and in each link, that will show where the major troughs and ridges are predicted to be at the time and date shown, 10 days ahead for the ECMWF-GFS and 6-10 and 8-14 days ahead for NOAA.

On the NOAA link you can also get to other outputs they do, MJO, AO, NAO, PNA etc and the main ENSO output,

this link is the direct one

http://www.cpc.ncep....JO/climwx.shtml

or this

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php

just search around there are all manner of links to most of the terms used by GP, ch etc

Remember to learn to walk first though! I'm still learning and read with interest what they both post. There are others on the forum who also show a good grasp of the teleconnections.

Remember also that no matter at what time scale we look the predictions are just that-predictions and just as likely not to be right at times as any other weather prediction. look at them daily, don't jump to conclusions but build up an idea of how they seem to be shaping up over several days to give an idea of how the atmosphere may develop in the time scale they show.

Above all enjoy the learning curve and even more so enjoy what the weather does be that as predicted or not.

thanks very much john, i dare say i might get the hang of it over the next few years! lol.

[95 Degrees]

Although the MJO stage 2 signs are tentative, its nice to see some good signs for Late July/August for a change, after the last 7 late July/Augusts being so poor, especially for the North-West.

[Backtrack]

Yep MJO is moving slowly but surely into phase two, meaning that we could be seeing an Indian Summer.

Judging by the current output I think most of July will follow a similar theme to June, but late July into August will see summer starting to appear!

[Downpour]

Yep MJO is moving slowly but surely into phase two, meaning that we could be seeing an Indian Summer.

Judging by the current output I think most of July will follow a similar theme to June, but late July into August will see summer starting to appear!

Sorry to be pedantic but that would high summer not an Indian Summer! An Indian summer is summer in autumn, after September 21 in traditional parlance.

[Stormyking]

Why don't people stop wrting off summer and enjoy nice weather we got now, the models look lovely over the next few days.

Summer hasn't been too bad this spell is perfect and arrived straight after the lovely hot weekend we had that went out with some of the biggest thunderstorms we had in years since 2006.

Sorry if I sound like I am moaning, just people seem to keep writing off summer when just had an amazing spell of weather and is in one now

Sorry Mods!

[Summer Sun]

Why don't people stop writing off summer and enjoy nice weather we got now, the models look lovely over the next few days.

Summer hasn't been too bad this spell is perfect and arrived straight after the lovely hot weekend we had that went out with some of the biggest thunderstorms we had in years since 2006.

Sorry if I sound like I am moaning, just people seem to keep writing off summer when just had an amazing spell of weather and is in one now

Sorry Mods!

Exactly, get out side and enjoy it, tomorrow looks like been around 27c in London, with 23c or so further north, by Tuesday the models showing LP moving in from the west the east will start to feel quite muggy and cloudy before the rain moves in from the west, this pattern then last's for the rest of the week.

[mushymanrob]

Why don't people stop wrting off summer and enjoy nice weather we got now,

i havnt seen 1 post thats 'written off summer'... just portions of it which corresponds to what is being forecasted .

ok, so now i can see the mjo graphic that predicts its possible track. trouble is, im non the wiser! :lol: because i dont know which phase is good for which weather! which phase would likely result in a heatwave?..

[UV-RAY]

i havnt seen 1 post thats 'written off summer'... just portions of it which corresponds to what is being forecasted .

ok, so now i can see the mjo graphic that predicts its possible track. trouble is, im non the wiser! :lol: because i dont know which phase is good for which weather! which phase would likely result in a heatwave?..

It's ok mushy, as sometimes the weather itself doesn't always follow the MJO. Remember it's just another teleconnection tool, it's not foolproof.

[anvilhead]

the other things with these mjo month/phase composites is that if the underlying nh pattern has shifted a bit (as I personaly believe it might well re heat hugging to and moving up through europe/russia) then the averages they draw from the past wont be all that useful ..

sam

[PubliusEnigma]

Yep MJO is moving slowly but surely into phase two, meaning that we could be seeing an Indian Summer.

Judging by the current output I think most of July will follow a similar theme to June, but late July into August will see summer starting to appear!

Indian summers are in October ?

Phase 2 bodes well for the south and the South east and parts of the east. It ususally results in Atlantic weather with winds mostly South west to south, meaning the lows track further north meaning that although the north and north west will be unsettled at times, it will be an improvement, seeing weather more akin to how its been in the South over the last few

weeks, the south in turn will see longer warmer sunny spells under periods of AzH ridging so drier, warmer, in the south

usually 26 -28oC typically. Thundery weather unlikely due to generally higher pressure.

[Stormyking]

i havnt seen 1 post thats 'written off summer'... just portions of it which corresponds to what is being forecasted .

ok, so now i can see the mjo graphic that predicts its possible track. trouble is, im non the wiser! :lol: because i dont know which phase is good for which weather! which phase would likely result in a heatwave?..

I was just saying pal, it was just the way people how poor models look at times etc

Im sorry if i took it the wrong way my bad.

[Mark Bayley]

i havnt seen 1 post thats 'written off summer'... just portions of it which corresponds to what is being forecasted .

ok, so now i can see the mjo graphic that predicts its possible track. trouble is, im non the wiser! :lol: because i dont know which phase is good for which weather! which phase would likely result in a heatwave?..

Here's another link you might find useful to go along with the links John gave you, the MJO composites

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

Don't really know much about the MJO but looking at the composites for July, it seems phase two and three seem best for higher pressure situated closer to us, with lower heights over Greenland. I'm sure GP or CH would certainly know

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi,

Sorry guys n gals for cross posting but I have posted the following in the convection thread? What does anybody think about what I have to say?

Well hello.

I'm enjoying the current settled spell actually in spite of the thunderstorms coming anywhere near me, however.......................

The MetO hint at possibly thundery type showers next Wednesday & Thursday so here's hoping, see http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Furthermore, prior to then, the MO Fax Charts at t+48 (attached) suggest a triple point low showing up, so will there be any implications from this as it interacts with the warmer air pushing eastwards, anybody?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 3, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Staffordshire]

Hey gottolovethisweather, I think we could have some exciting thunder potential coming up this week, maybe even us lot in the W Muds may get a storm I think we will have a much better idea of what will happen by Tuesday but I have a feeling that central England/Northern England may get there turn!

Edited July 3, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Summer Sun]

Both GFS and ECM show high pressure once again moving in by Sunday once this weeks low has passed through, surely one of these HP systems has to be strong enough to last more than 3 or 4 day's.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Edited July 3, 2011 by Gavin D

[snowlover2009]

Both GFS and ECM show high pressure once again moving in by Sunday once this weeks low has passed through, surely one of these HP systems has to be strong enough to last more than 3 or 4 day's.

Do you read anything the mods put. your posts are being deleted by the stupidity constant posts of images of each run every 2 mins! Give it a rest!

It is the same on TWO, you only just joined up and cluttering the threads over there. Infact, they don't allow your to post blown up pictures, so can you just quit it! Why can you not post the links, or is it just to attract your posts!

Sorry mods, but it really is annoying especially after being told the first time round and it has been mentioned before.

We don't need the image in our face when we already see the runs, a link is more suitable.

If i wanted to play catchphrase I would watch it or play it at home!

Edited July 3, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Gibby]

Tonight's UKMO shows a cold front moving NE through the UK on Tuesday with Low pressure then becoming slow moving over Northern regions for the rest of the run. Rain would move NE in association with the trough on Tuesday followed by cooler, fresher air with heavy and prolonged daytime showers with hail and thunder in places.

GFS is similar with its evolution beyond Saturday of introducing a slacker flow over the UK and although not settled there would be longer drier spells between the showers, especially in the south and it would urn somewhat warmer. Towards the end of the run a Northerly flow is shown re-invigorating inland daytime showers over all areas in rather cool conditions.

ECM completes the hat trick of showing a very showery second half to the week with strong Low pressure centred over Northern Britain. Beyond that pressure is shown to be higher close to the south but it is debateable whether it is close enough to stop Atlantic troughs (in association with Lows crossing east North of Scotland) from stalling across southern areas with rain at times while the North would always maintain unsettled, windy and showery conditions at least until day 10 when a more substantial ridge brings warmer air as it nudges up from the SW.

In general not a lot of change tonight. After a showery week or so the crumb of comfort offered is the passage of Low pressure more to the North with time allowing pressure to rise somewhat from the south. This is both illustrated by GFS and ECM but it still looks to be just a temporary feature and is too far out to take seriously at the moment.

[Alex]

Do you read anything the mods put. your posts are being deleted by the stupidity constant posts of images of each run every 2 mins! Give it a rest!

It is the same on TWO, you only just joined up and cluttering the threads over there. Infact, they don't allow your to post blown up pictures, so can you just quit it! Why can you not post the links, or is it just to attract your posts!

Sorry mods, but it really is annoying especially after being told the first time round and it has been mentioned before.

We don't need the image in our face when we already see the runs, a link is more suitable.

If i wanted to play catchphrase I would watch it or play it at home!

If it is against the rules and Gavin has been told then fair enough for your rant, but he is the only one to post for the 12z and at least his posts bring a bit of cheer to the run. I know most of the posts aren't very detailed and are cut and paste images but the mix of members posts makes the netweather community what it is.

Edited July 3, 2011 by Alex

[Evening thunder]

Sorry if this post is off-topic, and delete if you want mods, but I think Gavin D's post are at least related to the models (what this thread was about I thought) and I think he is trying to learn as well in this process, It doesn't help if people attack him.

If these posts which are actually on topic and post charts (I've also seen it asked more than once that people actually post charts to back up what they say ) are attacked/deleted how come posts that are 3 words long and could be called pointless, are apparently on topic and left alone?

Especially those LRFs

I suppose I better add something on-topic, so the ECM shows HP trying to build into the south again, and there are some members going for a warm up on the GFS ensembles for the 850hpa temps, perhaps reflecting a possible move of the MJO into phase 2?

Edited July 3, 2011 by Stormmad26

[bluearmy]

i think there may be a copyright issue re copying images onto the forum. however, nw appears far less concerned than TWO so maybe it isnt a problem. (apart from making the thread look disjointed)

[Uncle_Barty]

I prefer his posts to the one-line "terrible run" or similar kind of posts, or worse, deliberately trying to wind up people.

At least he is taking a view and backing it up with evidence.. even if it is often in FI.

I really don't have a problem with his posts.

[feb1991blizzard]

I have no problem whatsoever with Gavin D's posts as someone earlier pointed out, it is a variety of different posting styles that makes any forum, the only thing i would say is that someone posting FI cold and northerlys is only doing exactly the same though and what season it is shouldnt make it any more or less acceptable to post a blown up pressure chart.

[Geordiesnow]

Yep, I too prefer Gavin's constant posts of charts than reading moaning of some members regarding what the charts are showing etc. Too me, I think it was harsh to remove his post but perhaps he should just have one chart per post as they are fairly big.

Anyway's the ECM is showing tentitive signs of removing heights from Greenland as perhaps the upstream signals suggest, not always gurantee that a warm set up could follow mind but its a step in the right direction for perhaps a warm set up too occur. At the moment though, looks like we may have to go through another fairly lengthy period of stalling lows which will probably bring cloudy wet weather to Northern Scotland whilst further South the weather will be more showery but with frontal rain at times so certainly not summery weather so make the most of tomorrow is the message!