Model Output Discussion

[J10]

Looking across UKMO, ECM, GFS and NOGAPs Jackone and given the low pressure senario on all by mid-week I cannot see your 'halfway house'.

The only hope is the warm sector on these depressions falls after lunch and a brief glimpse of sun pushes the temperature up.

At T+96 you have a point, however at T+120 differences start to develop and if we look at GFS at T+141, (T+144 not working) http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110701/12/141/airpressure.png and ECM http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110701/12/ecmslp.144.png, there are big difference ECM completely has low pressure anchored on top of the UK, and with subsequent runs set to stay there. While GFS already has High Pressure riding up from the south. Quite easy to have a halfway house between these two, especially as we move into FI.

Given past performance I'd have to back ECM unfortunately as the likely winner.

[Sunny Android]

Given past performance I'd have to back ECM unfortunately as the likely winner.

Bit far out still, perhaps Sunday evening, yes 48 hrs hence, and we might be getting agreement from the other 3 and confirmation if ECM is your winner.

[January Snowstorm]

The ECM is just about as bad as it gets for mid-summer

Most of the lrf's have been well off the mark, no matter what happens from mid July on.

Just like the November freeze wasn't predicted either, let's face it beyond 7-10 days is simply not forecastable

[Geordiesnow]

The ECM is just about as bad as it gets for mid-summer

Most of the lrf's have been well off the mark, no matter what happens from mid July on.

Just like the November freeze wasn't predicted either, let's face it beyond 7-10 days is simply not forecastable

So will that mean we won't get anymore summer/winter is over posts from you(and hopefully others) even if the outlook bleak? I bloomin well hope so!

The Atlantic coming in by Tuesday is still there although the GFS does have a different set up to the rest but I think at this stage our reasonably settled spell will be coming to an end by mid-week next week but of course its not an gurantee as this week has shown regarding the models.

Be interesting too see who is right regarding the heights over in Greenland, GFS has lately in its later output to drop the Greenland high sometime this month but the ECM does not seem so keen.

[SP1986]

18z a fairly poor run after Tuesday, moving inline, sadly, with the ECM.

Not much to say really other than if the 18z came off, July would most likely follow in exactly the same vain as June.

[feb1991blizzard]

On the NOAA 5 and 6 day stats for 500mb over the northern Hemisphere, at 5 days its close for all 3, GFS is between ECMWF(top) and UK Met, and in the 6 day one ECMWF continues as top with UK Met having a pretty poor 2-3 days latterly so GFS doing better at 6 days than UK Met.

This backs up a point i have been making ever since i joined the forum, that although the GFS is third best overall, the criticism it receives is over the top and it is a very close third and has some merits and some bad points (predicting extreme weather in FI in winter like -15 uppers or 950mb lows being an example), however the reason the criticism exists is mostly based on NCEP being forced to release charts up to T380, if the ECM monthly model had to be released to the public every week then i wonder what stupid charts that would produced as the Met office 30 dayer is surely based on a lot more forecaster interpretation of model output using teleconnections than just plain model output.

[shedhead]

Yep, as I suggested earlier ECM was likely to back UKMO over GFS at 144hrs, which it duely did, now to complete/confirm it's humilation the GFS 18 has been dragged screaming and kicking into line. So little doubt now

that next week will be cool and inherently showery, perhaps even seeing some longer spells of rain across western areas in particular, with the only real question now sadly being just how long will it last? As for 'shades of

Summer 76', lets just say shades of Summers 06-10 unfortunately look far more pertinent. If we see any significant changes in the morning, or indeed across the next 3 or 4 days now, I will be very surprised.

Edited July 1, 2011 by shedhead

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs is now backing the Ecm... , Seems to me that the gfs was always out of Kilter with the Ecm over the last few days where its been changing its output quite widely, Ecm, though by no means the perfect model has been fairly constant with its unsettled look for next week for some time now, lets see what the Ecm 00z makes of it....

[snowingman]

..00Z give up on summer after tuesday next if this happen!! no heat, no sun, just rain and wind!! right through until run ends

[ANYWEATHER]

..00Z give up on summer after tuesday next if this happen!! no heat, no sun, just rain and wind!! right through until run ends

Looks pretty likely ..Ecm out to t-168 in no better ,keeping the theme of the Ecms very unsettled theme <_<

[I remember Atlantic 252]

..00Z give up on summer after tuesday next if this happen!! no heat, no sun, just rain and wind!! right through until run ends

not saying no more summer, but the last 2 years summer gone downhill after Wimbledon, maybe same this year, equivalent of 2nd Jan, winter was mostly over in southern UK on 2nd Jan this year

Edited July 2, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[shedhead]

I'm not one for doom and gloom as a rule, but I've got to say the latest guidance is the stuff nightmares are made of if you are looking for fine, warm weather, and is akin to a massive January Bartlett if hoping for

bitter cold and snow. The Greeny High is as robust as ever at +192hrs, perhaps even more robust than across much of June, so we remain locked in a pattern that history has proven as very difficult to break.

[mushymanrob]

i dont think the gfs is backing the ecm... true its shifted away from such a high pressure dominated run, but it still insists that there will be a huge northern block whilst the ecm doesnt have such pressure rises over scandinavia/siberia.. as i see it, the ecm is the worst run, with the ukmo and gfs in more agreement.

whilst there may be no +ve signals from the teleconnections atm, there might well be in a few days time,... (please correct me if im wrong), wheres the mjo heading ?

[UV-RAY]

i dont think the gfs is backing the ecm... true its shifted away from such a high pressure dominated run, but it still insists that there will be a huge northern block whilst the ecm doesnt have such pressure rises over scandinavia/siberia.. as i see it, the ecm is the worst run, with the ukmo and gfs in more agreement.

whilst there may be no +ve signals from the teleconnections atm, there might well be in a few days time,... (please correct me if im wrong), wheres the mjo heading ?

Too bed with a temperature if it see's the latest out put!

No signs of anything remotely resembling summery weather of any of the outputs this morning, that Greenland high seems to be gaining momentum as we head through summer.

[Eugene]

No signs of anything remotely resembling summery weather of any of the outputs this morning

Well its summerlike now and warming up quickly already 17C, don't see much rain until wednesday to be honest, will feel humid by tomorrow too.

[Uncle_Barty]

whilst there may be no +ve signals from the teleconnections atm, there might well be in a few days time,... (please correct me if im wrong), wheres the mjo heading ?

towards phase 1 and forecast to move strongly that way by pretty much everyone.

The model output Tuesday onwards does reflect the Phase 1 composites for July.

[johnholmes]

Just like the November freeze wasn't predicted either, let's face it beyond 7-10 days is simply not forecastable

that comment is even further off the mark JS, a good many did predict that-not the intensity but the cold onset and snow was predicted

These are the current indications from CPC'S latest outlooks:

http://www.cpc.ncep....10day/500mb.php

and

http://www.cpc.ncep....14day/500mb.php

Implying that there will be gradually lighter winds as time progresses but rain could still affect any area.

remember the 'winds' from the charts you quote are at 500mb?

[Gibby]

UKMO this morning brings Low pressure into the UK from the West by late Tuesday with rain then showers moving slowly east across all areas and lasting then to the end of the run.

GFS also shows Low pressure close into the west and NW of Britain by midweek bringing showers along too. It though for the remainder of its run offers periods when Low pressure positioning is more favoured for southern and eastern regions to see drier periods and reasonably warm spells too between the showers before things go decidedly unsettled and breezy for all in the last few days of the run.

ECM also swings a trough NE over Britain through Wednesday with rain for all followed by slow moving Low pressure over or to the NW of Britain for several days delivering heavy, slow moving and thundery showers for many. Towards the end of the run things cheer up a bit for the south as a brief ridge crosses east and the following Low pressure axis is more North allowing rain to be more restricted to the North and West with drier and warmer conditions though cloudy for the south in association with the proximity of High pressure over France.

A very showery look to the models this morning with plenty of scope for rain for most though there is some evidence of drier and sometimes warmer interludes for the south if the Azores ridge is allowed to come close as per GFS and later ECM.

[bluearmy]

maybe i'm mad but i reckon most in the southeast will be happy with next weekend for a range of reasons. (pleasant temps and possible thorms). only concern would be a straggling front but until i see the T120 FAX on monday, i wont know if this is likely.

[MP-R]

Pretty disgusting charts from midweek onwards - this current settled spell coming to an abrupt end by Wednesday so everyone make the most of it while it lasts. Next weekend looks okay for the south and east but disappointing further north and east. Fortunately, the worst of the weather being shown by the GFS is out in FI and present by the time I've gone to Spain for ten days so not too worried. Big switcharound from the anticyclonic runs of yesterday. Wait for another one.

[Weather-history]

Some of the charts are looking similiar to recent Julys

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

2007

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070703.gif

2008

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080706.gif

2009

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090706.gif

[shedhead]

Whilst I'm retiscent to write July off on the 2nd of the month, you would have to conclude that the current outputs offer little hope of protracted fine, dry and warm weather anytime soon, at least not on a national basis. Shades of 76 can now be completely forgotten, indeed as I said last night and Mr Data's recent historical chart posting confirms, shades of 2006-2010 looks far more realistic at this juncture. Whether we can salvage something decent in August remains to be seen, but the precident set across recent Summers suggests even this will be difficult, so unfortunately what started out as a Summer of huge, genuine hope is slowly but surely going down the proverbial pan.

Edited July 2, 2011 by shedhead

[The Northern Ramper]

What i find ironic is in winter the Greenland high can't leave quick enough and yet in summer it hangs around for weeks on end.

The weather has not been too bad over the last couple of weeks, it certainly is not on a par with 2007. It was hot at the beginning of last week and this weekend is looking extremely pleasant.

Going off the models we may get a mixed few weeks with showers, longer spells of rain and dry days all mixed together but no real sustained heat. However i feel as the month goes on and into August the Greenland block will lose its fight and things will begin to shift north.

I still have hopes of a pleasantly warm August.

[mushymanrob]

towards phase 1 and forecast to move strongly that way by pretty much everyone.

The model output Tuesday onwards does reflect the Phase 1 composites for July.

phase 1 was bad , right?... i dont know how this works but if its in phase 1 now, how soon would it leave and perhaps head to something more favourable? as its the 2nd of july and not august, is it unlikely, impossible, for warmer teleconnections to evolve soon?

as for charts reminiscent of recent julys... maybe on the face of it, and indeed the current gfs fi output is pretty depressing.. but, speaking for my locale, the ground here is still firm and pretty dry, not saturated like in july 07, 08, so im hoping that things wont be as bad.

dont forget either, this current summery spell was first expected to be a day long affair, the ukmo was the first to suggest itll be a longer affair, this evolved out of pretty much nothing, so whilst theres no visible signes of anything settled warm and summery after tuesday, this might well change.

ill not get too depressed just yet, give it another month, if by early august theres no sign of a lengthy settled spell then i think we can call 'game over' in terms of heat. (and please dont go on about how nice september can be... yes it can, but its not summer, the days are shorter, the flowers have finished and the swifts have gone .... summer in september is like snow in march... "if only" )

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think if the GFS or UKMO verify then some people might be surprised by the outcome- possibly cool, probably wet, but probably not dull. We end up influenced by one slow-moving low pressure area which suggests a mix of sun and showers, possible thunder for some, and temperatures not far off the long-term average by day. Low pressure centred close to the British Isles doesn't always mean a complete washout. The ECMWF is a different story though- a very mobile picture is suggested by the ECM with a lot of frontal activity implied and thus dull cool wet conditions.

The ECMWF ensemble mean doesn't necessarily tell the full story when there is disagreement over timings of lows and shortwaves, so although the ECM ensemble mean supports GFS/UKMO I don't think we can read too much into this.