Model Output Discussion

[Swave Snow]

If it is against the rules and Gavin has been told then fair enough for your rant, but he is the only one to post for the 12z and at least his posts bring a bit of cheer to the run. I know most of the posts aren't very detailed and are cut and paste images but the mix of members posts makes the netweather community what it is.

I wholly agree with this post

[Weather Wizard]

I think Gavin's posts are very informative

:rolleyes:

May they long continue

[Staffordshire]

Back on topic? Defintately looks like HP will be building from the South, the models are in agreement that a LP will be followed by some heavy possibly thudery showers midweek.

[shotski]

I prefer his posts to the one-line "terrible run" or similar kind of posts, or worse, deliberately trying to wind up people.

At least he is taking a view and backing it up with evidence.. even if it is often in FI.

I really don't have a problem with his posts.

Agree

[Summer Sun]

For those complaining at my charts / posts, Just wait till winter arrives and the "coldies" are back with their charts of Northerly winds or Easterly winds then you will have something to complain about.

If the mods would prefer just 2 or 3 links instead of images then that it fine by me.

Now back on topic.

[Swave Snow]

For those complaining at my charts / posts, Just wait till winter arrives and the "coldies" are back with their charts of Northerly winds or Easterly winds then you will have something to complain about.

If the mods would prefer just 2 or 3 links instead of images then that it fine by me.

Now back on topic.

You keep on posting mate. I am not complaining one bit. Although I do not say I know the rules etc. But I like people who back there stuff up, something which I do not do very well I must admit. You do which is absolutely the right thing to do.

[Weather Wizard]

You keep on posting mate. I am not complaining one bit. Although I do not say I know the rules etc. But I like people who back there stuff up, something which I do not do very well I must admit. You do which is absolutely the right thing to do.

I wish i could give this post 15+

Carry on Gavin

[Osbourne One-Nil]

For those complaining at my charts / posts, Just wait till winter arrives and the "coldies" are back with their charts of Northerly winds or Easterly winds then you will have something to complain about.

If the mods would prefer just 2 or 3 links instead of images then that it fine by me.

Now back on topic.

What we would prefer is if everyone could just talk about the weather, and nothing else really? We're trying to be relaxed about things in here this summer, but it's sometimes not easy when I'd say only about 50% of the posts are actually about the topic.

[MP-R]

This settled spell well and truly over by midweek but before then, some very warm / hot temperatures for the east and southeast ahead of the change. Tuesday night onwards sees rain moving in followed by downpours, heaviest and thunderiest in the west. An improvement at the weekend and early next week. Into FI, nothing wet but nothing warm. The GFS in particular paints a fairly dry but rather cool picture with winds frm a northerly direction.

[johnholmes]

Just a touch of fact if admin and mods will allow re links-images etc.

I suspect the reason some folk object to charts being shown is that they are sometimes very large and so take up much of the page. It is possible to make a copy of them and post such that the 'postage stamp' variety shows and the reader can click on it and enlarge if so desired. Posting a chart from your own pc does mean the chart does not automatically update when the next model run comes out.

The one thing which I suspect annoys most of us is the poster who copies an entire post and says very little at the bottom of it rather than just copying the link and making a comment?

Posting a link cansometimes lead to confusion when a link has been posted just prior to a new model run and then updates so the text the poster has put in seems at odds with the link..

Really its a case of us all being as relaxed as possible about the issue. Politely explain your problem and ask indeed advise how the poster may help the forum by perhaps doing it a different way.

Certainly the idea of links/charts to support ones theory of what the models are showing is often a better idea than simply saying the models show such and such, something I'm guilty of at times.

Sorry its not really on topic but I'm just trying to suggest we all try and help one another rather than getting up tight, there is always the ignore button and if really annoyed then click on the report button, explain your view in there and wait for admin/mods to sort the issue out.

end of another jh sermon.

Someone please post about the models!

[feb1991blizzard]

Not really much to say apart from the fact that the models show a trough over us lasting until the weekend when it continues on its merry way drawing a brief NWerly for early next week.

EDIT : sorry, that chart is out of date but the general synopsis for the next week is still Low pressure situated over Northern Britain giving some heavy showers, possibly even some thunder over Northern Britain. Any drier weather looks to be likely the further east and particularly south east you are.

Edited July 3, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[mushymanrob]

Here's another link you might find useful to go along with the links John gave you, the MJO composites

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

Don't really know much about the MJO but looking at the composites for July, it seems phase two and three seem best for higher pressure situated closer to us, with lower heights over Greenland. I'm sure GP or CH would certainly know

thanks

re gavin... i think the only thing he is 'guilty' of is being over enthusiastic!

nice to see tentetive signes on both the ecm and gfs this morning that the wretched greenland high might be losing its grip by mid month. this allows the azh to ridge in over us and would produce some nice warm summery weather IF the cloud amounts arent too great (im always cautious when seeing high pressure airflow off the atlantic). this is all of course in fi.

[Gibby]

UKMO shows Low pressure moving in from off the Atlantic with a band of rain crossing east over the UK tomorrow, reaching the east coast late in the day. Following that and lasting through the rest of the week and weekend will be showery conditions. Through most days some of the showers could be heavy and prolonged with hail and thunder as Low pressure centres on the UK, dying out somewhat from the SW by Sunday as Low pressure begins to move away NE.

GFS follows a similar course. It brings a temporary rise of pressure early next week as a ridge crosses east allowing a couple of dry and warmer days for all before renewed Low pressure is shown to steam in for a while midweek. Towards the end of the run a more substantial rise of pressure takes place as High pressure extends towards England from the Azores so that southern areas south of Scotland would become very warm and humid with sunny spells and dry conditions. Scotland and areas near west facing coasts would be unsettled still with a breezy westerly flow and rain, heaviest in upland areas in the far north with coastal fog likely in the moist flow.

ECM is fairly identical to UKMO up to 144hrs. In its extended part of its run a ridge of high pressure moves east early next week drying things up before northern areas become unsettled again as Low pressure moves east on a more northerly track to the North of Scotland. Further south a ridge from the Azores stays close enough to bring dry conditions, however with a westerly element to the wind some cloudier spells would occur. Temperatures would pick up in the south under this ridge.

In Summary a showery week is cast in stone now with some heavy rain locally with hail and thunder in places and temperatures near to normal. As next week moves in the weather has a chance of breaking out of the current pattern as pressure falls over Greenland and the Azores High is allowed to throw a more meaningful ridge towards southern Britain by midweek next week. Further north though Atlantic Lows and troughs will be close enough to maintain the unsettled and breezy theme there.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows an unsettled week ahead with the glaring exception of today which looks very warm and fairly sunny with temps around 25c 77f but tomorrow will be less warm with some patchy showery rain across the uk which will then become more organised and heavier across eastern and northern areas tomorrow night before spreading north through scotland on wednesday with brighter, showery weather for most areas but next weekend also looks unsettled with low pressure in control with showers and longer spells of rain but then beyond T+168 hours the Azores High looks likely to ridge northeast across southern areas with pressure of 1020 mb or higher and a warmer more settled outlook for the southern half of england but the abysmal summer continuing across the north.

[Summer Sun]

ECM From 192hrs is looking good quite a big low over Greenland, GFS also develops this,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

Today looks like being the last of the straightforward warm, calm, sunny days for most of us, though there will be a scattering of showers later on. The models show fronts moving in tomorrow with cloudier conditions and a little patchy rain, though it should stay warm in eastern England.

From Wednesday until Sunday we will be locked in a showery polar maritime flow (perhaps returning polar maritime to begin with)- this means temperatures close to or just below normal, a fair amount of sunshine at times, and a scattering of showers and possibly the odd thunderstorm for some. It does look like some more persistent rain will move through on Wednesday/Thursday but for now GFS shows it passing over most parts during the intervening night leaving the daytime weather bright and showery. It looks rather like the showery second week of May, though with lower pressure implying more showers in eastern and southern England than was the case in the second week of May, when places as far apart as Cleadon (Tyne & Wear) and Norwich saw very few showers.

Following the breakdown of the bright showery weather on Sunday, it's too far out to be able to have much certainty on the evolution. We're very likely to end up in changeable westerlies eventually but the ECM in particular has introduced the possibility of a short-lived high pressure spell, and if the high gets far north enough for long enough it could end up quite similar to the one we're currently having.

[Methuselah]

So, overall, more average summer weather?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Pretty much- not a washout, just a fairly standard mix of weather, though I think with the emphasis on showers rather than frontal rain, like in June, sunshine totals may end up higher than one would often expect in a changeable pattern.

[Methuselah]

So, nothing really worth complaining about...

[Downpour]

So, nothing really worth complaining about...

Not unless you are a torrential-rainophile, who will be complaining that

1. the progged rains aren't likely to fill up their doom buckets

2. they will be strongest in the North and West due to the weather being biased in favour of the SE.

So plenty to complain about for some

Edited July 4, 2011 by Downpour

[Summer Sun]

Been looking right through GFS and deep in FI keeps the low's over Greenland and high pressure over us, now i know it's well away but some on here have been saying that the second half of July may be warmer and GFS FI supports this.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.png

Maybe as we head into the second half of the month those high's over Greenland will start to drop, if they do then this would be good news for those of us wanting warm weather, as high pressure would be able to build.

Edited July 4, 2011 by Gavin D

[Uncle_Barty]

Both ECM and GFS show heights over Greenland dropping towards the 8-10 day mark. Little way off of course but lets see.....

Some model output also showing hints of the MJO moving into Phase 8 which would not be bad news at all for those wanting settled weather. It's currently neutral/low amplitude Phase 1 and has hardly moved in recent days, despite forecasts of it marching solidly into Phase 1 (that caused Chiono's "I dont believe it!" outburst a week or two back.).

[PubliusEnigma]

GFS 6z paints an average British summer out to day 16, with more of the same, changeable with any warmer slots reserved for the South. Staying very changable more so the further north you are. MetO have updated their 16-30 dayer beyond that our to 3rd August. It maintains the unsettled theme and suggests at below average temps and below average sunshine for the period, but makes no mention of above average days. Which could transpire into long cloudy spells dominated by coolish northwesterly winds. Cool clear nights leading to nice sunny mornings. Cumulus quickly building mid morning, but capped so that it flattens out into cloudy skies lasting until sunset, melting away as the sunsets with cool nights to follow. So by no means a washout. No sign of warm, humid thundery weather on the horizon, on any of the current output runs.

It does beg the question have we seen the last 30oC for the summer, two weekends ago ?

[Gordon]

GFS 6z paints an average British summer out to day 16, with more of the same, changeable with any warmer slots reserved for the South. Staying very changable more so the further north you are. MetO have updated their 16-30 dayer beyond that our to 3rd August. It maintains the unsettled theme and suggests at below average temps and below average sunshine for the period, but makes no mention of above average days. Which could transpire into long cloudy spells dominated by coolish northwesterly winds. Cool clear nights leading to nice sunny mornings. Cumulus quickly building mid morning, but capped so that it flattens out into cloudy skies lasting until sunset, melting away as the sunsets with cool nights to follow. So by no means a washout. No sign of warm, humid thundery weather on the horizon, on any of the current output runs.

It does beg the question have we seen the last 30oC for the summer, two weekends ago ?

A valid question I think as it seems for the last 2 or 3 summers July really hasn't been up to much and this year at the moment is looking like no exception

[Alex]

A few things to consider; 2 weekends ago and the week before that I.e the 17th June the day I went to Ibiza, no-one was talking about heatwave conditions - in fact not even a warm up was discussed and then 72hrs later models start showing a heatwave. What I'm saying is that the models are fickle and are bound to change alot before August arrives.

If we do move into mjo phase 8 then things should change dramatically!