Model Output Discussion

[Downpour]

Gavin D - classic chart that which shows 25 degrees widely at midnight. Certainly too hot for me but I'm sure some on here would claim to like it. Reminds me of a visit to

New York where it was 90F at 11pm. Totally awful but some people like it I suppose!

Yes, But you do Realize that you live in one of the Driest Cities Of Europe....

True - it is raining as I write but not sure what happened to the deluge we were promised. Looks like it will be over by 9pm at the latest and not much more to come overnight sadly as the lawn and plants could do with it.

[Gibby]

UKMO shows the current showery pattern thats setting up persisting through until Sunday with low pressure meandering around the British Isles for the following three days before slowly drifting NE into Scandinavia. However even by Monday the air from the North is still unstable enough for showers on the eastern side of the UK as the weakest of ridges is held at bay just west of Britain.

GFS also shows Low pressure dominating the UK with its centre near Northern and Western Britain between now and Saturday when it finally moves NE to Scandinavia taking the worst but not all of the showers with it. Through the early days of next week the weak ridge that enters the UK early next week gets quickly displaced by Low pressure drifting south then east along the English Channels meaning further unsettled weather for western and southern areas until the second weekend. To end the run high pressure builds east from the Azores to give a fine, warm and settled end to the run as High pressure settles over the nation.

ECM is very similar to UKMO with the showery flow on the flip side of the Low slow to depart the UK with some showers still occurring in eastern regions on Monday. However, the ridge finally makes it in on Tuesday/Wednesday with a couple of welcome fine days with sunny spells and reasonably warm conditions too. Towards the end of the run pressure falls again with renewed Low pressure shown elongated North-South down Western Britain with rain for those regions. The run then ends with Low pressure having transferred to the east of Britain with heavy showers and relatively cool conditions having returned.

Things are still very tentative with Low pressure refusing to leave our shores for any length of time. Both GFS and ECM show short incursions of drier and more settled conditions with GFS going the whole hog by the end of its run by showing a nice UK based summer anticyclone. In the 6-10 day range both models shows renewed low pressure following the ridge early next week in different locations simply meaning the risk of rain and showers scattered about over the UK again is highly likely.

[Eugene]

Downpour, on 05 July 2011 - 19:06 , said:Mushyman Rob - the last two weekends have been warm

and fine so not really sure what you are getting at.

Yes, But you do Realize that you live in one of the Driest Cities Of Europe....

Yes maybe he does but i certainly don't in the west midlands and he's completely right the last two weekends were very warm(even hot on a few days) and dry as a bone.

[mushymanrob]

How can we look at the teleconnections please?

john holmes posted some links on this thread after i asked... they should still be there.

But on average per decade, how many summers do actually have a hot spell? I just think like winter time, expectations are too high for the extreme too happen whilst normal summer weather gets well and truely ignored. This past week has been warm and it certainly felt like summer just like in winter, a cold dry frosty spell feels like winter.

Yet again, I refuse to write off a month because the model output does not show what I ideally like too see. There is still a chance for another warm spell to develop and we got all the way until September to enjoy warm weather, yes the days are not as long then but warmth can still be enjoyed.

The trend does appear after this unsettled week for things to turn drier but as of yet, it probably won't turn any warmer but this can of course easily change.

oh i agree, i wasnt suggesting that every summer should be hot, id suggest that an average of two summers per decade have a lengthy warm/hot spell (countrywide), but in summer arent we looking for the elusive heat just the same as in winter many seek snow? they are rare events but that doesnt diminish the interest.

its not about difinitively 'writing off' a month, just using the models for a guidance as to what is most likely to happen. if we are to ignore what the models say, whats the point in viewing them and coming here? :lol: theres little sign of a heatwave in the next two weeks... thats what the models suggest (dispite a few rouge runs in fi), thatll take us to the 20th, so that is in all probability 'writing off' most of the month... but thats only going on what the current output is suggesting will happen, it might change, but the odds are against that until the upstream signals give a strong indicaton that there will be a pattern change

Mushyman Rob - the last two weekends have been warm

and fine so not really sure what you are getting at.

read my post...i clearly refered to a lengthy hot spell as opposed to a couple of days here and there and i made locational referances.

.... and the general theme continues this morning, ridge/trough/ridge/trough... the question is... will one of these ridges be allowed to build and block the procession of atlantic troughs? certainly the last one built and lasted much longer then originally projected. and the next ridge this morning looks to be a larger affair, although its position isnt condusive for much advected continental heat. however a settled bright/sunny spell with temps maxing in the low twenties cannot be sniffed at. maybe this time the ridge will build into something more substantial and lasting... the gfs though doesnt think so and returns us to a showery regime in a repeat performance of what we have now. theres abit of heat potential in deep fi, but until it appears on all models within a reliable timeframe is nothing more then the usual 'fi tease'.

Edited July 6, 2011 by mushymanrob

[Gibby]

UKMO this morning still looks very showery with the current Low pressure not really moving far away until Sunday and Monday continuing the shower risk now for most over the weekend. Early next week a toppling ridge of high pressure reaches the UK on Tuesday with attendant dry and bright weather, at least for a while.

GFS shows an area of slack pressure early next week following the current low away by next Monday. After showers from now till then the weather would become drier and more settled for a couple of days. However by Thursday a new Low pressure sinking SE and filling slowly over the UK maintains unsettled and showery conditions for several more days. In the far reaches of FI the weather becomes more North-South orientated with the North seeing rain at times still while the South looks somewhat more settled and a little warmer as high pressure lies close to the south at times.

ECM this morning also shows Low pressure and heavy showers lasting from now until Monday as Low pressure only very slowly inches away NE and fills over the weekend. A ridge is then shown to move equally slowly across the UK with a cessation in showers for most by Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter ECM follows GFS and shows an Atlantic Low and drifts it slowly SE over the UK to lie over France by Saturday 16th. This would mean a return to relatively cool conditions after a slightly warmer few days with heavy showers occurring again chiefly in the south by day 10.

Any hopes of a return to high summer this morning look as remote as ever. If I was straw clutching I could highlight a few days when the weather would be fine and warm for all but with the pattern hardly changing at all over the upcoming week or two, a continuation of bands of rain and days of heavy showers seem inevitable. Needless to say some places in this showery type will fair better than others and some will no doubt say after the period that the weather has been OK but I think away from the SE such places will be few and far between.

[Eugene]

Any hopes of a return to high summer this morning look as remote as ever

Well GFS 00Z is keen to bring some more very warm and humid weather for early next week , looks like it could be very similar to the very warm and very humid spell early this week so temps could reach mid 20's C again in parts and it will feel very humid and sultry not sure why that isnt high summer, 30C+ heat is very rare.

[Harry]

Well GFS 00Z is keen to bring some more very warm and humid weather for early next week , looks like it could be very similar to the very warm and very humid spell early this week so temps could reach mid 20's C again in parts and it will feel very humid and sultry not sure why that isnt high summer, 30C+ heat is very rare.

I disagree, 30C is reached in the SE pretty much every year, normally for several days.

[VillagePlank]

Looks to me as if FI is today!! - widely diverging ensembles (for London)

[johnholmes]

looks a reasonably close idea out to about 10th, so a degree of confidence in that, but beyond that and the spread is pretty wide, some 14C even before the end of the run, so to me that would suggest, on the run quoted, not a lot of confidence in the 850mb temperatures beyond about 10 maybe 12th?

Of course the next run may well show both a different outcome and different values.

I honestly do believe its best to start to use one run and check it each day rather than looking at each run-okay some of you think that is wrong, but we all have our different methods. It works for me.

Further afield and the 500mb anomaly charts now valid out to the period 16-20 July have little to suggest any prolonged warmth is on offer in that time scale.

I did spend time last evening looking much further out at teleconnections, ENSO, MJO etc and they, to me, imply no major change before the month end, an occasional dry and warm day, maybe 2 on the trot, more likely the further SE one lives, as about the only hope for those wanting warmth and dry.

[Downpour]

Well GFS 00Z is keen to bring some more very warm and humid weather for early next week , looks like it could be very similar to the very warm and very humid spell early this week so temps could reach mid 20's C again in parts and it will feel very humid and sultry not sure why that isnt high summer, 30C+ heat is very rare.

Well quite. I think the trouble we are having at the moment is that some members have a tendency to consider the weather to be the general pressure pattern shown by the models rather than what is actually happening outside. Take today for example – had we listened to the likes of Ian Brown and Younger Dryas from the other site, we'd be battening down the hatches and preparing for biblical rains today, but in fact we are having a lovely summer's day with pleasant temperatures, sunshine and a nice breeze. Yet these very same posters would say "low pressure in charge, no signs of summer weather". Well low pressure may be around but the actual weather is rather nice and summery. The walk to the office was pleasantly warm, and the girls were in skirts and shades – it looks like summer to me. Then I look at the weekend forecast and see that 24c could be achieved in the SE, with plenty of sunshine, so a third good weekend in a row now almost assured. Summer is as summer does, and this is summer. No, we may not be having weeks on end of temps in the 80s, but this is England, not the South of France.

[bluearmy]

probably right JH but as expected, the ridges are longer than they were in june whilst the troughs are a bit shorter in duration. clear on fi naefs now that week 2 atlantic jet is weaker and pointed more at the northern half of the uk which should take the centre of depressions just to the north of the uk rather than slap bang through the centre as has often been the case. this is a mean and will obviously have an error n/s of this.

so a slow improvement in general, which, given that july is already an improvement on june, could mean a fairly decent period beyond the 20th. always better the further south you find yourself.

finally, several spreads have offered the diving shortwave towards the end of next week which could throw up a shortlived plume scenario.

[Gordon]

well for all those north of the border

if the weather isn't up to much just console yourselves that in 15 days time it's the start of the new footie season

doesn't the time just seem to fly by

[bluearmy]

Well quite. I think the trouble we are having at the moment is that some members have a tendency to consider the weather to be the general pressure pattern shown by the models rather than what is actually happening outside. Take today for example – had we listened to the likes of Ian Brown and Younger Dryas from the other site, we'd be battening down the hatches and preparing for biblical rains today, but in fact we are having a lovely summer's day with pleasant temperatures, sunshine and a nice breeze. Yet these very same posters would say "low pressure in charge, no signs of summer weather". Well low pressure may be around but the actual weather is rather nice and summery. The walk to the office was pleasantly warm, and the girls were in skirts and shades – it looks like summer to me. Then I look at the weekend forecast and see that 24c could be achieved in the SE, with plenty of sunshine, so a third good weekend in a row now almost assured. Summer is as summer does, and this is summer. No, we may not be having weeks on end of temps in the 80s, but this is England, not the South of France.

but you are quoting from an imby perspective. a glance at the radar would show that your walk to work could have been a very soggy (and therefore cool) affair just 20 miles from where you are. today, tomorrow and friday are far from what we would hope to see from a summers day for most of the uk. however, as is always the case with showers, there will be some winners.

[Downpour]

but you are quoting from an imby perspective. a glance at the radar would show that your walk to work could have been a very soggy (and therefore cool) affair just 20 miles from where you are. today, tomorrow and friday are far from what we would hope to see from a summers day for most of the uk. however, as is always the case with showers, there will be some winners.

It's a fair point you make but the doomsters also look from a IMBY perspective, their backyards being the North West usually although Younger Dryas needs to get out more as he claims to be from London. The truth is though for most people in England, who live in the SE quadrant, this is a decent summer. There's no point living in the NW and Scotland and then moaning about the rain – nothing anyone can do but these areas are wet. Better then to move if they hate it so much rather than expecting their regions to have the climate of Cannes.

[Alex]

Having a quick flick through the 06z and it's pretty good, needs more support but high pressure covers most of the country throughout from next week!

[Harry]

It's a fair point you make but the doomsters also look from a IMBY perspective, their backyards being the North West usually although Younger Dryas needs to get out more as he claims to be from London. The truth is though for most people in England, who live in the SE quadrant, this is a decent summer. There's no point living in the NW and Scotland and then moaning about the rain – nothing anyone can do but these areas are wet. Better then to move if they hate it so much rather than expecting their regions to have the climate of Cannes.

Oooh don't know about that yet Downpour...IMO this is quite disappointing so far.

Spring was by and large, excellent. Summer though? Not for me (so far). Admittedly, better than the further NW you go, but then that's the case most summers anyway.

2009 and 2010 a lot better so far IMO (despite the severe lack of thunder in 2010 and very disappointing late July/August)

[Methuselah]

Trying to make sense of the amorphous blob that trying to assimilate all the runs as one creates in the mind, it looks like a slow change to 'something' perhaps a little less westerly than we've been having of late...

[P-M]

It's a fair point you make but the doomsters also look from a IMBY perspective, their backyards being the North West usually although Younger Dryas needs to get out more as he claims to be from London. The truth is though for most people in England, who live in the SE quadrant, this is a decent summer. There's no point living in the NW and Scotland and then moaning about the rain – nothing anyone can do but these areas are wet. Better then to move if they hate it so much rather than expecting their regions to have the climate of Cannes.

The UK is the WHOLE of the UK not just the south and east. If you are going to post things like "it's a fairly decent summer so far" don't be surprised to see people north of London disagreeing with you. You're obssession with dropping Younger Dryas in to most of your posts is wearing thin now als, I don't know him niether am I interested unless he is posting on here. I for one am just wanting facts about what is happening in the UK and not just the SE.

You complain about people saying it's cold wet blah blah blah and yet all you do is bang on about the SE and how wonderful the summer is. This is the model output discussion not the SE regional thread so as far as I am concerned your posts are just as tiresome as others who constantly moan about the disapointing sunmmer.

Sorry mods but I am getting really hacked off with hearing about people who don't even post on here. I know I don't contribute much to the model output but I come here regularly to keep up to date not listen to the above poster moaning about Younger Dryas!

[Harry]

The UK is the WHOLE of the UK not just the south and east. If you are going to post things like "it's a fairly decent summer so far" don't be surprised to see people north of London disagreeing with you. You're obssession with dropping Younger Dryas in to most of your posts is wearing thin now als, I don't know him niether am I interested unless he is posting on here. I for one am just wanting facts about what is happening in the UK and not just the SE.

You complain about people saying it's cold wet blah blah blah and yet all you do is bang on about the SE and how wonderful the summer is. This is the model output discussion not the SE regional thread so as far as I am concerned your posts are just as tiresome as others who constantly moan about the disapointing sunmmer.

Sorry mods but I am getting really hacked off with hearing about people who don't even post on here. I know I don't contribute much to the model output but I come here regularly to keep up to date not listen to the above poster moaning about Younger Dryas!

No, the source of the problem is that people want to include "what they want/dont want to see", "how it will affect the drought conditions in certain areas", whether or not the models indicate "a change" to what's been happening over the previous weeks/months, etc. High Pressure building in for example, will lead to comments including "getting hotter", "getting much drier", "a welcome change to horrible weather", "will bring a cool breeze, murky conditions" etc...each of those statements is NOT necessarily true for everywhere...which is what prompts posts relating to forum members' locales.

Like it or not, models mean different things for different parts of the country and will also be spoken of in the context of current and past conditions, which is invariably different from region to region, city to city, etc. Eugene made an innocent statement earlier saying "30C+ is very rare"...well I'm sorry, for the SE quadrant that is not true at all, as I pointed out. Yet for Glasgow, that is indeed very rare to see.

This thread, which I frequent occasionally, is exceptionally hostile and a bit like a "nanny state"...wanting to put in rules about this, rules about that, referring to one's own area should be censored etc.

Perhaps all posts which are less than 500 words long should be censored....in particularly complex weather setups, I fail to see how one can discuss weather for the whole UK in anywhere near 500 words or less? Or, if you want to comment on a particular regions prospects/chances, make the first words in the post to the effect of [south East/East Anglia], or [London and Home Counties] or [W/C Scotland]...that way if people aren't interested they can skip through the post.

[P-M]

No, the source of the problem is that people want to include "what they want/dont want to see", "how it will affect the drought conditions in certain areas", whether or not the models indicate "a change" to what's been happening over the previous weeks/months, etc. High Pressure building in for example, will lead to comments including "getting hotter", "getting much drier", "a welcome change to horrible weather", "will bring a cool breeze, murky conditions" etc...each of those statements is NOT necessarily true for everywhere...which is what prompts posts relating to forum members' locales.

Like it or not, models mean different things for different parts of the country and will also be spoken of in the context of current and past conditions, which is invariably different from region to region, city to city, etc. Eugene made an innocent statement earlier saying "30C+ is very rare"...well I'm sorry, for the SE quadrant that is not true at all, as I pointed out. Yet for Glasgow, that is indeed very rare to see.

This thread, which I frequent occasionally, is exceptionally hostile and a bit like a "nanny state"...wanting to put in rules about this, rules about that, referring to one's own area should be censored etc.

Perhaps all posts which are less than 500 words long should be censored....in particularly complex weather setups, I fail to see how one can discuss weather for the whole UK in anywhere near 500 words or less? Or, if you want to comment on a particular regions prospects/chances, make the first words in the post to the effect of [south East/East Anglia], or [London and Home Counties] or [W/C Scotland]...that way if people aren't interested they can skip through the post.

Perfectly put

[UV-RAY]

but you are quoting from an imby perspective. a glance at the radar would show that your walk to work could have been a very soggy (and therefore cool) affair just 20 miles from where you are. today, tomorrow and friday are far from what we would hope to see from a summers day for most of the uk. however, as is always the case with showers, there will be some winners.

I think he failed to see the irony in his post.

Too me it looks a case of more of the same for the rest of this month, still no signs of a lengthy dry/hot spell. Will soon be Autumn too!

Edited July 6, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[reef]

How about we actually discuss the models?

Theres a thought!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Harry is close to the mark here. My main problem with many posts is the over-simplistic categorisation of UK weather that is tailored to people's preferences. In summer, it's "sustained high pressure = settled = good, not sustained high pressure = unsettled = disaster". Hence, if a chart shows high pressure close by the masses automatically assume that it will be warm, dry and sunny, even if the model outputs indicate a lot of grey drizzly weather, etc.

For what it's worth, the model outputs are suggesting quite a slack jet rather than full-blown westerlies, so if anything perhaps a greater element of "continentality" than normal and certainly no sign of a non-descript cool cloudy breezy westerly type this side of FI. It's looking bright and showery with thunder for some through to Sunday and then mostly dry and sunny into early next week as high pressure noses in from the west- it will probably be a relatively short-lived high but as many of us saw last weekend such highs can still bring a lot of comfortable weather for outdoor stuff. However, southern areas in particular need to watch out for a bout of wet and windy weather tonight as a secondary low pushes NE-wards.

[95 Degrees]

Heat being shown again on the 6z GFS after being dropped on the previous run, of course it's well into FI so fairly unlikely to happen but look how widespread and hot the colours are!

And by the way, for those going off topic with the traditional North vs South argument, firstly 30C is likely at some point almost every year , (in the south-east) but southern members need to understand that people in the North and North-west have experienced a below average summer even by their low standards so far, whist we in the south have had an average summer so far so they have a right to complain about their miserable weather.

[ribster]

Well quite. I think the trouble we are having at the moment is that some members have a tendency to consider the weather to be the general pressure pattern shown by the models rather than what is actually happening outside. Take today for example – had we listened to the likes of Ian Brown and Younger Dryas from the other site, we'd be battening down the hatches and preparing for biblical rains today, but in fact we are having a lovely summer's day with pleasant temperatures, sunshine and a nice breeze. Yet these very same posters would say "low pressure in charge, no signs of summer weather". Well low pressure may be around but the actual weather is rather nice and summery. The walk to the office was pleasantly warm, and the girls were in skirts and shades – it looks like summer to me. Then I look at the weekend forecast and see that 24c could be achieved in the SE, with plenty of sunshine, so a third good weekend in a row now almost assured. Summer is as summer does, and this is summer. No, we may not be having weeks on end of temps in the 80s, but this is England, not the South of France.

Well you see that's a little inaccurate, and maybe a bit imby, because we have had heavy rain overnight, and it's been raining all day, lashing it down at times, and it's not exactly warm and there is currently zero need for shades. One size does not fit all. Not that this isn't British summer weather of course.