Model Output Discussion

[mountain shadow]

Horrendous model output this morning for any sign of a decent Summer spell. July going down the pan like June. There doesn't appear to be any sign of a change either with the Atlantic driven pattern remaining.

[shedhead]

The general dissapointment in here is probably reflective of the fact to much store was put in yesterdays improved outlook from GFS, but to be fair the Ops was a warm, settled outlier and with

hemispheric 500mb charts showing no real change to the pattern it was always likely to turn it less settled on subsequent runs - which it duely has.

As some wise sages on here have said, until we see genuine and sustained progging of a wavelength change we are pretty much stuck with what we've got, therefore any sudden improvements

in the GFS and ECM outputs should be viewed with a large degree of sceptacism, especially post T+144hrs.

That said at least the coming 4-5 days should see some decent weather for all of us, but even now we can't call it settled.

Edited July 10, 2011 by shedhead

[Gibby]

UKMO looks generally quiet over the next 5 days or so with slack pressure over the UK and no specific weather system in overall control. The result is a fairly settled week with the chance of the odd shower or two to spoil the party in any one particular place around 10-20% daily. It will feel quite warm in the slack flow with 20-25C occurring North to South most days. Late on in Day 6 of the run a more vigorous attack from Low pressure from the NW is shown with freshening SW winds and rain as a result.

GFS also shows a quiet week with the odd shower here and there particularly in the south and southeast midweek but a lot of dry, pleasantly warm weather too, especially in any prolonged sunny spells. From Day 6-10 though, a deepening Atlantic Low dives SE over the UK with rain and showers with the Low winding up in the North Sea and Scandinavia with cool showers for all then. In FI the weather is shown to remain changeable with Low pressure close to the east delivering further showers or rain at times, particularly in the east and southeast.

ECM follows the route of UKMO with a quiet, warmish week with the odd shower, though as with UKMO many places will miss these and stay dry, bright and warm all the working week. By the weekend though Low pressure takes charge from the NW moving skowly across Scotland to Scandinavia by day 10 with much windier, cooler and unsettled weather for all with rain or showers.

In Summary it looks like most places will stay dry this week. There will be exceptions to this rule as all models show at least a risk of isolated showers on all days before all models also show a major attack of Low pressure from the NW over next weekend and beyond.

[J10]

Trying to pick my words carefully here, in case I get picked up on something. The benign spell remains very much on for much of next week. More on that later.

Not particularly enthused by the pattern at T+144, from each of the models, what was Low pressure zipping through largely for northern parts, now looks a full on low pressure for much of the UK set to last for a few days. However this is at T+144, and hopefully it will change back to the better.

So what does the next 120-144 have in store. Well the temps look around 20-23c for southern areas, Cloud amounts are very difficult to determine in slack weather conditions like this, and that has a fundamental impact on the feel of the weather. Possibly cloud amounts quite low on Monday, more on Tuesday and to start Wednesdays for southern areas, generally brighter on Thursday, before more cloud edging in from the west Friday.

UKMO looks generally quiet over the next 5 days or so with slack pressure over the UK and no specific weather system in overall control. The result is a fairly settled week with the chance of the odd shower or two to spoil the party in any one particular place around 10-20% daily. It will feel quite warm in the slack flow with 20-25C occurring North to South most days. Late on in Day 6 of the run a more vigorous attack from Low pressure from the NW is shown with freshening SW winds and rain as a result.

GFS also shows a quiet week with the odd shower here and there particularly in the south and southeast midweek but a lot of dry, pleasantly warm weather too, especially in any prolonged sunny spells. From Day 6-10 though, a deepening Atlantic Low dives SE over the UK with rain and showers with the Low winding up in the North Sea and Scandinavia with cool showers for all then. In FI the weather is shown to remain changeable with Low pressure close to the east delivering further showers or rain at times, particularly in the east and southeast.

ECM follows the route of UKMO with a quiet, warmish week with the odd shower, though as with UKMO many places will miss these and stay dry, bright and warm all the working week. By the weekend though Low pressure takes charge from the NW moving skowly across Scotland to Scandinavia by day 10 with much windier, cooler and unsettled weather for all with rain or showers.

In Summary it looks like most places will stay dry this week. There will be exceptions to this rule as all models show at least a risk of isolated showers on all days before all models also show a major attack of Low pressure from the NW over next weekend and beyond.

Excellent summary there.

[SP1986]

Interestingly if we looks further on, just for an analysis point of view, there is a certain amount of suggestion that even low pressure around Greenland can still bring cool, unsavoury weather. By no means does it mean just because the Greenland high disappears is summer going to return. What we see in 0z FI is a hypothetical situation were mid Atlantic blocking persists despite lowering of Polar heights.

In the short time frame though, it is suggestive that it will be fairly settled, with dry weather but variable amounts of cloud.

As for further on, I wouldn't put too much faith in that the models are showing at the moment. I assume there is conflicting signal somewhere between the MJO and NAO/AO?

[Upgrade]

i find all this wailing and suicidal postings bizarre to be honest, they are ruining the model thread.

some people really need to get a grip and realise they live in the UK not the mediterranean. It rains every month, and if you get 2 dry weeks together at any time of the year in the UK, then you consider yourself lucky. This is NORMAL.

Similarly with temps. 18-24 degrees with a little sun and an odd showwer is an entirely normal pattern and average across the UK in summer... it doesn't mean summer is written off.

expecting month long 25-30 degree spells throughout the UK are in the realm of fantasies. posts from northern ireland and western scotland moaning about rain? well. hate to let you down , but it is sort of prone to this kind of weather there. get used to it or move, and stop moaning.

Edited July 10, 2011 by Upgrade

[Summer Sun]

Well it looks as if 00Z was a huge outliner as the 06Z has lost that low pressure which was showing to move in from the North west next weekend, as ever GFS has fooled us all again,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

[mushymanrob]

i find all this wailing and suicidal postings bizarre to be honest, they are ruining the model thread.

some people really need to get a grip and realise they live in the UK not the mediterranean. It rains every month, and if you get 2 dry weeks together at any time of the year in the UK, then you consider yourself lucky. This is NORMAL.

Similarly with temps. 18-24 degrees with a little sun and an odd showwer is an entirely normal pattern and average across the UK in summer... it doesn't mean summer is written off.

expecting month long 25-30 degree spells throughout the UK are in the realm of fantasies. posts from northern ireland and western scotland moaning about rain? well. hate to let you down , but it is sort of prone to this kind of weather there. get used to it or move, and stop moaning.

what 'wailing and suicidal' posts? people are expressing an opinion on what the models are showing and after a potentially pleasant enough week theres atm a humdinger of a trough expected next weekend... theres not many people thatll like that (terminal morraine is one...lol) and just because its pretty normal it doesnt make it any more barable... no ones expecting months of heat... summer (in terms of a decent hot spell) does look like its 'written off' because there are no signes of anything changing, knowlegable people have said that.

as in snowless winters, heatless summers are always going to disappoint, most here like extremes, many here in summer like a good proper spanish plume and thunderstorm, so frustration will always ensue when these do not materialise.

and charts like this are not going to please anyone who would like to enjoy a summer outdoors

Edited July 10, 2011 by mushymanrob

[blitzen]

expecting month long 25-30 degree spells throughout the UK are in the realm of fantasies. posts from northern ireland and western scotland moaning about rain? well. hate to let you down , but it is sort of prone to this kind of weather there. get used to it or move, and stop moaning.

Prone?.....maybe, but absolutely wallowing in it day after day this year is, my uninformed friend, unusual. No need therefore for your arrogant, condescending post!!

[mushymanrob]

Well it looks as if 00Z was a huge outliner as the 06Z has lost that low pressure which was showing to move in from the North west next weekend, as ever GFS has fooled us all again,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

tbh gavin, i think youll find its the 06z that has got it wrong. previous gfs runs, the ecm and the ukmo all suggest that next longwave will be significant.

Actually that chart is not too bad for here, as similar charts charts brought dry and sunny weather a few weeks back as we tend to be sheltered with those sort of winds. Admittedly I would prefer 25c and wall to wall sunshine but you can't have everything.

understood! most horrendous charts have the exceptions though and the run as a whole, after this weeks pleasantness doesnt look very nice for most. its a continuous pattern of ridge/trough/ridge/trough ... pretty normal british weather (as has been pointed out)heres hoping though that maybe just one of those ridges might build and produce a nice hot spell...

[J10]

tbh gavin, i think youll find its the 06z that has got it wrong. previous gfs runs, the ecm and the ukmo all suggest that next longwave will be significant.

The 00Hz suite did tend to agree on the pattern as you say, the 06Hz GFS is a departure, the big question is is the 06Hz is outlier from the ensembles (especially in terms of pressure over the UK), and when the 12Hz suite comes out is there movement from the other models towards the GFS 06hz solution.

tbh gavin, i think youll find its the 06z that has got it wrong. previous gfs runs, the ecm and the ukmo all suggest that next longwave will be significant.

understood! most horrendous charts have the exceptions though and the run as a whole, after this weeks pleasantness doesnt look very nice for most. its a continuous pattern of ridge/trough/ridge/trough ... pretty normal british weather (as has been pointed out)heres hoping though that maybe just one of those ridges might build and produce a nice hot spell...

Actually I deleted that post after I had posted it, as the pattern shown on your chart, although similar to the pattern I had mentioned has lower pressure and therefore would be a lot more unsettled.

This was the pattern I was referring too.

[johnholmes]

Well it looks as if 00Z was a huge outliner as the 06Z has lost that low pressure which was showing to move in from the North west next weekend, as ever GFS has fooled us all again,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

I think before you decide the 06z is more reliable than the 00z you should take a look at the other 2 models? Also remember how I keep trying to indicate that until the 500mb charts show a suggestion of a major change then there will be no major change.

Come Saturday and Sunday we will know what the weather is doing. Until then, jumping from run to run, and the changes GFS often shows, will not lead to a really balanced idea on what MAY happen.

Trust me I've been at this since 1973, and that was long before computers were used, that far back and we could only predict about 24 hours ahead!

I'm happy to chat via pm with you if you would like to do that rather than me seeming to be having a go at you. I'm not, your enthusiasm is great but-anyway drop me a line please if you would like to do that.

John

[Alex]

I think before you decide the 06z is more reliable than the 00z you should take a look at the other 2 models? Also remember how I keep trying to indicate that until the 500mb charts show a suggestion of a major change then there will be no major change.

Come Saturday and Sunday we will know what the weather is doing. Until then, jumping from run to run, and the changes GFS often shows, will not lead to a really balanced idea on what MAY happen.

Trust me I've been at this since 1973, and that was long before computers were used, that far back and we could only predict about 24 hours ahead!

I'm happy to chat via pm with you if you would like to do that rather than me seeming to be having a go at you. I'm not, your enthusiasm is great but-anyway drop me a line please if you would like to do that.

John

John, the met 6-15 day outlook is suggesting a more settled spell possibly developing at end of period. I would assume this because we could be heading for mjo phase 2? The charts you often post doesn't show like much change so wondered what your thoughts were on this? Cheers

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ok, fully understand the "low pressure generally means more volatile weather" and high pressure means-generally speaking- good settled weather in the summer with ave -ave plus temps and ave-below ave in winter.

However, can someonen explain why Greenland blocking in the winter tends to give settled asnd mainly dry cold weather, whereas Greenland blocking in the summer (as this year) tends to give us ave -below ave temps with unsettled conditions due to a succession of Atlantic lows driven by a southerly jet?

Just wondered, no-one else seems to haver ever questioned why?

I know mods, wrong thread, but where should I put it where it would bwe read by people who can answer it as wellm as paople who may have wondered the same thing in the past?

The anticyclonic/northerly types that bring the aforementioned cold dry weather in the winter occur rarely in July and August, due to the specifics of the temperature gradients across the Northern Hemisphere and particularly the Atlantic, but it is a fairly common pattern during May and early June.

As for the high pressure, the weather looks like being a bit of a mixed bag next week in spite of its close proximity. Tomorrow looks like being bright and warm for most with a scattering of showers but then Tuesday and Wednesday, with low pressure moving across to our SE, will have a rather chilly north-easterly flow. Western parts will probably stay sunny and quite warm with a scattering of showers, but the east will be on the cool side and may be prone to low cloud, particularly in E Scotland and NE England. Thursday however looks like being a sunny dry day for most with close to average temperatures.

Friday looks like returning to sunshine and showers, possibly heavy and thundery in the east, but the longer-term outlook is increasingly suggesting that the jetstream will get a shift on, giving a cloudier and less thundery cyclonic/wet pattern than we've been used to recently. However, the model outputs have fluctuated quite a bit in FI so they may well be blowing up those lows too much.

i find all this wailing and suicidal postings bizarre to be honest, they are ruining the model thread.

I think such posts have been in the minority recently, but at times, I do find myself thinking that MOD serves as more of a "high pressure watch" thread rather than a model output discussion thread, very similar to how it ends up as a snow-watch thread in winter and a warm-watch one in spring. I have no objections during those phases when it primarily consists of model output discussion with some expression of preferred weather thrown in but all too often the emphasis ends up the other way around- and that's typically when we get whining, when expectations and/or desires clash with reality. For instance, I have little doubt that the "high pressure watch" element to the thread puts people off posting about storm risk charts and the like despite them being on-topic.

[johnholmes]

John, the met 6-15 day outlook is suggesting a more settled spell possibly developing at end of period. I would assume this because we could be heading for mjo phase 2? The charts you often post doesn't show like much change so wondered what your thoughts were on this? Cheers

hi Alex

I hope you and perhaps others will read the pdf as a reply-I find this method much easier to prepare for myself so apologies to anyone not able to open a pdf file. I can pm it if anyone wants me to do that as a word document but obviously the charts would not appear.

Net Wx sun 1o july answer to qu mod thread.pdf

[Tim]

i find all this wailing and suicidal postings bizarre to be honest, they are ruining the model thread.

This is NORMAL.

We've had the coolest June since 1991 and July isn't looking much better....not exactly normal really is it!

Tbh this summer seems quite similar to 2007 now although a bit dryer and not as warm, my gut feeling is it won't change much this month but like in 2007 August may bring the best weather of the summer.

[azores92]

Well it looks as if 00Z was a huge outliner as the 06Z has lost that low pressure which was showing to move in from the North west next weekend, as ever GFS has fooled us all again,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

Don't discount it, i know that like many on here you like to generally look for the summery weather in the charts, but at the moment the ECM looks distinctly unsettled in its latter stages and could well be right. the GFS chops and changes so much beyond a few days you can't take it as gospel.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12Z has more a less followed 06Z with the big area of Low pressure showing on the 00Z no longer there, I'm not saying it will be hot or dry but with high pressure around certainly in the south things should be more settled than this week,

Also FI is teasing us again

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

[johnholmes]

precip charts are notorious for being off the mark even at 24-48 hours let alone 144 (Saturday) but the difference between the 06z version and the 12z version for 'middle' England and parts of North Wales is quite marked.

[Bale]

GFS 12Z has more a less followed 06Z with the big area of Low pressure showing on the 00Z no longer there, I'm not saying it will be hot or dry but with high pressure around certainly in the south things should be more settled than this week,

Also FI is teasing us again

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3361.png

yep GFS is showing some great charts but as per norm too far out,but dont they look great mate...that would be excellent timing for the kids when they break up,my son whos 4 hasnt even had a half decent summer since hes been born...bring it on before it all goes pete tong lets hope the ECM tags along with GFS,but having read the MO update cant see that happening but you never know

[Upgrade]

We've had the coolest June since 1991 and July isn't looking much better....not exactly normal really is it!

Tbh this summer seems quite similar to 2007 now although a bit dryer and not as warm, my gut feeling is it won't change much this month but like in 2007 August may bring the best weather of the summer.

i must be living in a different country. we've had some off days but some lovely periods most days too. the sun's belting this evening here.

This summer has been nothing like 2007, not here at least, that summer we barely scraped 20 degrees for weeks on end, and there was little in the way of sun. A sense of perspective is required.

Anyway back to the models. looks like a reasonably settled and warm in any sun, week ahead. next weekend is ages away. just get out and enjoy the pleasantness - not a heatwave, just an average british summer.

[MP-R]

I wouldn't say this summer has been similar to 2007 at all. The Atlantic hasn't been constantly active and there has been a fair mix of weather. It certainly hasn't been summerlike, more like May or September but nonetheless.

Models are showing a much drier picture. Hard to tell what is going to happen with the low over France as it looks quite similar to the 7th/8th July 2004 one but tracking further east. After that though it does look fairly benign albeit not sunny all the time.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ECM update is keeping things fairly settled upto Friday but it's still keen to bring in a quite deep area of low pressure by Saturday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Could be quite cool, wet and windy in the North on Saturday

[Dale Leigh_6487]

i must be living in a different country. we've had some off days but some lovely periods most days too. the sun's belting this evening here.

This summer has been nothing like 2007, not here at least, that summer we barely scraped 20 degrees for weeks on end, and there was little in the way of sun. A sense of perspective is required.

Anyway back to the models. looks like a reasonably settled and warm in any sun, week ahead. next weekend is ages away. just get out and enjoy the pleasantness - not a heatwave, just an average british summer.

Hi mate try living in Manchester its been dire up here. 2 diffrent climates nw se.

[snowlover2009]

Only gfs shows some sort of hope, I wouldn't hold out hope though, further down the line gfs offers some better weather and better weather throughtout the weekend and next week, but I am with the euro models on this one. The gfs I think will join the bandwagon. Could be very cool next week when the the warm uppers clear from the troughs.

hmm summer.