Model Output Discussion

[The PIT]

Back on subject a lengthy cool spell still on the cards. Plenty of showers and possible longer periods of rain as well. Could be some storms around as well in the heavier showers. Coupled with a good breeze at times it should be a good few days of weather watching. Gardens at least won't need any watering this week and I won't have to top up the ponds which was looking a possibility.

[mushymanrob]

dont panic Rob. its statistically impossible to go through june, july and august without a spell of anticyclonic dominance.................. surely ??? seriously, this trough will either sink southeast or drift ne as pressure builds from the sw. how long this lasts ????????

I think the relevant question is whether or not we often get summers without any anticyclonic spells that persist for more than 3-4 days, since we've had three anticyclonic spells so far this summer but none of them lasted longer than that. 1954 was an infamous example, but I think that statistically they are pretty rare.

However, while anticyclonic dominance generally guarantees dry settled weather it's not a guarantee of warmth or sunshine, as that depends on where the high ends up. Anywhere over or to the east of Britain is usually very favourable for that at this time of year, but if it stays stubbornly to the west and south-west (which is looking quite likely at present) then there's a much higher chance of conditions being relatively cool and cloudy for most.

In the shorter term, it looks like remaining mostly cloudy and windy until Monday with outbreaks of rain and some brighter showery interludes but the emphasis should shift towards bright showery conditions and lighter winds by Tuesday.

well its certainly possible to go through summer with no anticyclonic spell that lasts more then 3 or 4 days, and as tws points out, it might be a cloudy one at that! if you (blue army) mean its impossible to go without a sunny anticyclonic spell that lasts for more then 3-4 days nationally...then youre wrong! unfortunately.

Back on subject a lengthy cool spell still on the cards. Plenty of showers and possible longer periods of rain as well. Could be some storms around as well in the heavier showers. Coupled with a good breeze at times it should be a good few days of weather watching. Gardens at least won't need any watering this week and I won't have to top up the ponds which was looking a possibility.

as the charts stand, i only think itll be initially cool, if that low does hang about and is rather slack, some warmer continental air will feature in its circulation...so whilst we might get air from the northeastern quadrant, its scource may well be mid or southern europe...

this chart illustrates what i mean and something similar has been showen several times now.

Edited July 16, 2011 by mushymanrob

[TonyH]

No scrub that that was yesterday!

Edited July 16, 2011 by Tonyh

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12Z coming out now, and it is following on from the 06Z with tentative hints of high pressure starting to move into the west by Thursday,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

With low pressure still to our east there are likely to be plenty of showers still if any where is to see more settled weather it will be the west, though cloud cover could be the problem there.

Into FI it show's a more organized area of high pressure over us,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

With this been FI I wouldn't be too hopeful of it happening, though it would come inline with the met office's extended forecast.

Surprisingly warm over much of England today, 22-25c quite widespread, GFS modelled 16-18c!

Tell's its own story really, GFS is hopeless at predicting temperatures.

Edited July 16, 2011 by Gavin D

[TonyH]

No that was yesterdays maxima my bad Gavin

[Milhouse]

No scrub that that was yesterday!

I was going to say

The GFS 12z is so frustrating. We get HP knocking on the door later this week only for low pressure to descend south again scuppering any chance of something warm. To be honest i can see why it is coming back south as it has nowhere to go with the stubborn Russian block holding firm

[shedhead]

All eyes on the 12 ECM now as it comes out, but it must be said the 12GFS has drifted more towards the 00 ECM post 144hrs, so I expect the 12 ECM will maintain it's rather consistant stance.

[andymusic]

Not really looking good for the rest of the summer is it - Met office long range into August:-

"However, through early August the more unsettled weather is expected to quickly spread, once again across the UK. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around or slightly above average, with sunshine fairly limited and this in turn will lead to generally below average temperatures."

You obviously did not read my post carefully. I meant that it is impossible to go a week in July here without recording 16c!

Today was expected to be cool yet it has managed 19c for example.

Of course I realise that the odd very cool day of 12-14c max will occur if it is dull and wet, as I have recorded such figures occasionally both here and in the MIdlands. I bet your max today has been above 16c?

Oh well at least the first half of Summer has been fairly dry and sunny here!

Really Tonyh - you been living in the canaries then?

Summer has "left the building" (UK) I'm afraid, and there's no sign of it coming back either in any model!

Edited July 16, 2011 by andymusic

[Backtrack]

Not really looking good for the rest of the summer is it - Met office long range into August:-

"However, through early August the more unsettled weather is expected to quickly spread, once again across the UK. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around or slightly above average, with sunshine fairly limited and this in turn will lead to generally below average temperatures."

Really Tonyh - you been living in the canaries then?

Summer has "left the building" (UK) I'm afraid, and there's no sign of it coming back either in any model!

Hardly, you can't write off August, or even the rest of July considering it's only July 16th.

Still got all of August, and September for heat. There are signs that we may be seeing a slow improvement as we head into August. So I will wait until mid August to call it yet.

[Summer Sun]

ECM pretty much inline with GFS till Friday, then improvements from Saturday in the west at first,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

No heatwaves but some pleasant settled weather would arrive if this were to verify, still a chance of rain or showers in the east for a time untill the low clears.

Not really looking good for the rest of the summer is it - Met office long range into August:-

"However, through early August the more unsettled weather is expected to quickly spread, once again across the UK. Rainfall amounts are likely to be around or slightly above average, with sunshine fairly limited and this in turn will lead to generally below average temperatures."

Really Tonyh - you been living in the canaries then?

Summer has "left the building" (UK) I'm afraid, and there's no sign of it coming back either in any model!

ECM shows some thing more summary towards the weekend, see above.

[andymusic]

Hardly, you can't write off August, or even the rest of July considering it's only July 16th.

Still got all of August, and September for heat. There are signs that we may be seeing a slow improvement as we head into August. So I will wait until mid August to call it yet.

I like your positivity - but from what we've had so far this summer - if I was a betting man - I'd have my money on no summer returning - not any "real" summer temps and sunshine - we've been stuck in a rut for sometime now - and it just seems to be continuing in the same vain!

[UV-RAY]

Hardly, you can't write off August, or even the rest of July considering it's only July 16th.

Still got all of August, and September for heat. There are signs that we may be seeing a slow improvement as we head into August. So I will wait until mid August to call it yet.

Without being pedantic, people were saying the very same mid June, I don't see any change in the current pattern we are stuck in, more of the same for all. Maybe October will bring us our next lengthy dry/warm spell.

[lukemc]

Without being pedantic, people were saying the very same mid June, I don't see any change in the current pattern we are stuck in, more of the same for all. Maybe October will bring us our next lengthy dry/warm spell.

So really don't you see the prospect of anything decent for the rest of July and August - remember we have got 6 weeks left of meteorological summer left plus September which can often involve warm spells. So why would you think that a good August would be long odds at the moment? Remember statistically we are due a good August even if it is just by the law of averages. I do find it funny how increadibly pessimistic this thread is at times - I think the last few weeks were I live have not been too bad - it has been a mixture of good days (Thursday was fantastic) and not so good days but at least in my part of the world this summer has been an improvement over the last few in some respects - especially in terms of sunshine.

As far as the synoptic pattern is concerned again as far as statistics are concerned we should be due a change shortly - If you have been following the likes of John Holmes posts you will notice that we have been stuck in the same wavelength pattern for a few weeks now - surely we should be due a change shortly considering how long the pattern has lasted.

Luke

[UV-RAY]

So really don't you see the prospect of anything decent for the rest of July and August - remember we have got 6 weeks left of meteorological summer left plus September which can often involve warm spells. So why would you think that a good August would be long odds at the moment? Remember statistically we are due a good August even if it is just by the law of averages. I do find it funny how increadibly pessimistic this thread is at times - I think the last few weeks were I live have not been too bad - it has been a mixture of good days (Thursday was fantastic) and not so good days but at least in my part of the world this summer has been an improvement over the last few in some respects - especially in terms of sunshine.

As far as the synoptic pattern is concerned again as far as statistics are concerned we should be due a change shortly - If you have been following the likes of John Holmes posts you will notice that we have been stuck in the same wavelength pattern for a few weeks now - surely we should be due a change shortly considering how long the pattern has lasted.

Luke

No one can say for sure Luke, the odds aren't stacked in favor of a lengthy dry/warm spell, but these can change quickly. It's not been a total write off this summer, more average for those in the South and SE, but below average the further North. Fingers crossed we get at least one spell of warm/hot weather for 5+ days this summer.

[lukemc]

No one can say for sure Luke, the odds aren't stacked in favor of a lengthy dry/warm spell, but these can change quickly. It's not been a total write off this summer, more average for those in the South and SE, but below average the further North. Fingers crossed we get at least one spell of warm/hot weather for 5+ days this summer.

Good as it is always good to keep all options open and anything is statistically possible even if it might be improbable. I do think this summer has not been as bad as some seem to make it out to be on here and IMO we will get one more warm spell of temperatures above 28C before the end of August - I think the potential warm spell will last around 5-7 days or so and if we get that I will be happy.

Luke

[Slowpoke]

I hope ECM FI verifies

[Thundery wintry showers]

ECM pretty much inline with GFS till Friday, then improvements from Saturday in the west at first,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

No heatwaves but some pleasant settled weather would arrive if this were to verify, still a chance of rain or showers in the east for a time untill the low clears.

ECM shows some thing more summary towards the weekend, see above.

I doubt that this assessment would hold for central and eastern areas until at least the last frame (T+240)- it might well turn increasingly dry and settled but the chilly north to north-easterly flow would most likely maintain cool cloudy conditions (again we have the issue of the cold upper airmass being mixed out from the NE making the air more stable). It could turn brighter and warmer in sheltered western and south-western parts though.

There is growing agreement that the high will start to come closer towards the end of the 7-10 day forecast period, so perhaps the possibility of a general west-east split.

[swilliam]

well its certainly possible to go through summer with no anticyclonic spell that lasts more then 3 or 4 days, and as tws points out, it might be a cloudy one at that! if you (blue army) mean its impossible to go without a sunny anticyclonic spell that lasts for more then 3-4 days nationally...then youre wrong! unfortunately.

as the charts stand, i only think itll be initially cool, if that low does hang about and is rather slack, some warmer continental air will feature in its circulation...so whilst we might get air from the northeastern quadrant, its scource may well be mid or southern europe...

this chart illustrates what i mean and something similar has been showen several times now.

Gosh someone posted a chart to back up their point - thanks.

[Paul]

Ensembles tell us a couple of things - pressure is very likely to rise beyond the upcoming week:

And some loose agreement that it's going to get a bit warmer too, with some hints of it becoming warmer still later in the month.

[Backtrack]

I like your positivity - but from what we've had so far this summer - if I was a betting man - I'd have my money on no summer returning - not any "real" summer temps and sunshine - we've been stuck in a rut for sometime now - and it just seems to be continuing in the same vain!

Without being pedantic, people were saying the very same mid June, I don't see any change in the current pattern we are stuck in, more of the same for all. Maybe October will bring us our next lengthy dry/warm spell.

Aye, but this current 'rut' we're stuck in now has to end at some point, just as the blocked 2010-2011 winter ended, pressure dropped over Greenland and we had a mild January and February with only the occasional break of something a little colder.

The bottom line here is that this current pattern has to end soon, I highly doubt it will be able to cling on throughout the remaining 6 weeks of Summer, and as Paul has posted above, there are signs towards the end of the model runs for something a little more settled and warm, not flag breaking by anyone's standard, but we need to start somewhere.

Not like one can complain, we had a cracking Spring, we've had a June of much above average sunshine amounts and average temperatures, and so far an above average July, in terms of both sunshine amounts and temperatures.

Obviously that was dependant on where you live, as I believe that Scotland has had a dreadful Summer?

Give it 2 more weeks, if we don't see a change in the theme of rain and below average temperatures, then I will write off August too.

Could well be that we will have an Indian summer, but the weather online monthly forecasts go for a mixed July, with high pressure just as frequent as low pressure, we shall see.

[k19]

Aye, but this current 'rut' we're stuck in now has to end at some point, just as the blocked 2010-2011 winter ended, pressure dropped over Greenland and we had a mild January and February with only the occasional break of something a little colder.

The bottom line here is that this current pattern has to end soon, I highly doubt it will be able to cling on throughout the remaining 6 weeks of Summer, and as Paul has posted above, there are signs towards the end of the model runs for something a little more settled and warm, not flag breaking by anyone's standard, but we need to start somewhere.

Not like one can complain, we had a cracking Spring, we've had a June of much above average sunshine amounts and average temperatures, and so far an above average July, in terms of both sunshine amounts and temperatures.

Obviously that was dependant on where you live, as I believe that Scotland has had a dreadful Summer?

Give it 2 more weeks, if we don't see a change in the theme of rain and below average temperatures, then I will write off August too.

Could well be that we will have an Indian summer, but the weather online monthly forecasts go for a mixed July, with high pressure just as frequent as low pressure, we shall see.

You'll write off August before July is out? However I think you are right about everything depending on where you live at the moment, but I think this might be about to change if you look at the London pressure ensemble

And the Aberdeenshire ensemble for pressure

It seems to be that some members that show the highest pressures are showing a near equal reading in both London and Aberdeenshire, perhaps this is hinting at an anticyclonic spell of blocked high pressure over the UK? We know these are hard to shift.

[Backtrack]

You'll write off August before July is out? However I think you are right about everything depending on where you live at the moment, but I think this might be about to change if you look at the London pressure ensemble

And the Aberdeenshire ensemble for pressure

It seems to be that some members that show the highest pressures are showing a near equal reading in both London and Aberdeenshire, perhaps this is hinting at an anticyclonic spell of blocked high pressure over the UK? We know these are hard to shift.

2 more weeks would take us to the start of August mate.

GFS is just so much of a tease! Strong ridge of high pressure builds to the West of Ireland and stays there for days! It then tries to link up with high pressure over Norway but keeps a pesky weak area of low pressure in the North sea meaning that we are likely to see an East-West split, where as the West sees the best of any sunshine and the warmer temperatures, due to high pressure over or close by to us, whilst the East sees cloudy, slightly cooler weather.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking at the NOAA, the NAO looks like it finally enter positive at least for a time later in the month. The AO also is heading for neutral or slightly positive. Both of these have spent quite a while in a negative phase. Whilst these two aren't everything about the weather hopefully it is some sort of sign for a pattern change even if not that massive.

[k19]

2 more weeks would take us to the start of August mate.

GFS is just so much of a tease! Strong ridge of high pressure builds to the West of Ireland and stays there for days! It then tries to link up with high pressure over Norway but keeps a pesky weak area of low pressure in the North sea meaning that we are likely to see an East-West split, where as the West sees the best of any sunshine and the warmer temperatures, due to high pressure over or close by to us, whilst the East sees cloudy, slightly cooler weather.

the 31st of July actually

But yes the operational run is close to being very good, hopefully that ridge may jolt further east during the 18z which incidentally is rolling out now

Edited July 16, 2011 by K.1000

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - very dissapointing summer conditions, cool wet and windy sums it up - have the school holidays started wonder? Oh yes they have and bang on cue the weather decides to take a turn for the worse.

However, just beyond reliable timeframe i.e later next week, the models are indicating ridging of heights from the west, whether this verifies remains to be seen. The summer so far has been punctuated by very shortlived temporary ridging of heights with the troublesome trough quick to attack from the northwest.

Hopefully we do see some some strong ridge development for next weekend and that this is the start of a more prolonged bout of dry settledweather courtesy of anticyclonic conditions overhead something which we have not seen since the end of April. This is a pivotal point in the summer - make or break time it has to be said on how summer 2011 will be rated, so far I would put it as better than 2007, 2008 and 2009 at this stage, though a long way from 2010, mind 2010 saw a much better first half than second half. I was predicting a spell of very good weather during the second half of the month and there is still time for this occur, however, I really am not expecting much from August.