Model Output Discussion

[SP1986]

The 18z maintains previous runs standpoints, but I personally just don't buy that the low is hang around just to our east, just do not buy it at all, it has plenty of space to move into, so in my opinion we will see high pressure ridging in from about the 23rd, rather than what the GFS currently shows. This situation has happened already this summer, and these predicted pattern rarely come to fruition.

[TEITS]

Nothing in the 500mb anomaly charts for the next 15 days suggests any spell of northerlies nor in the further out tc's to my eyes.

Well thats contrary to what the models actually show because the ECM/GFS 18Z/GEFS mean all suggest a N,ly flow for the UK by the end of next week.

A very poor outlook it must be said.

[feb1991blizzard]

Well thats contrary to what the models actually show because the ECM/GFS 18Z/GEFS mean all suggest a N,ly flow for the UK by the end of next week.

A very poor outlook it must be said.

I agree. I didnt want to say anything as obviously John Holmes is a qualified and very experienced meteorologist so he knows a heck of a lot more than a novice like me but the point is from what i could see all three models 12z output showed a Northerly for the majority of the run and quite a potent one at that. I also disagree with Stephens post above and i think any heat will not arrive untill the 27th at least, will be very shortlived and probably not extend further North than the midlands.

[mountain shadow]

A shockingly poor set of 0z's even by this summers standard.

Both GFS and ECM have low pressure situated around the Uk eastern seaboard for virtually the full ten days with northerlies and north easterlies as a result.

Above average rainfall and below average temperatures would result. I would suspect some eastern area could see problems with flooding particularly north eastern parts of England and Scotland.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just as well from tomorrow through to next sunday, its not winter, or this setup would bring huge snow to Scotland and NE England

[William of Walworth]

The 18z maintains previous runs standpoints, but I personally just don't buy that the low is hang around just to our east, just do not buy it at all, it has plenty of space to move into, so in my opinion we will see high pressure ridging in from about the 23rd, rather than what the GFS currently shows. This situation has happened already this summer, and these predicted pattern rarely come to fruition.

Thanks SP, one of the very few even vaguely positive posts!

I'm blatantly clingling to this hope that the HP area, very frustratingly positioned in current runs, will in fact move somewhat nearer to us by next weekend Which could add something better for the West at least.

[The PIT]

Fantastic charts long lived Northerlies good agreement between gfs and ecm should be plenty of snow around and hard frosts at night and .... Ah just realised it's summer bumm3r. Shouldn't be too bad though in the south west and far south though.

[shedhead]

Whilst both the big boys maintain essentially cool, unsettled conditions across the next 7-10days ECM is far worse, keeping the ridge well out west and allowing LP to develop slap bang

over the top of us towards the end of the period. It's fair to say UKMO and GFS are reasonably well in line at T+144hrs, so there is a chance that GFS's slightly more optimistic evolution might

develop thereafter, but with ECM sticking to it's hitherto consistent line this simply cannot be taken as read quite yet.

Edited July 16, 2011 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00Z show's something slightly more settled by late next week, those in the west with probably feel the benefits of this at first whilst those in the east could be prone to more in the way of Rain or Showers.

[mushymanrob]

latest 500mb anomaly charts-or rather the ECMWF-GFS version

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

valid out to 25 July and they continue the type of chart that they and NOAA have been consistently showing for some time. Little sign of dryness and heat for many areas?

i see these charts have been posted a few times yesterday... tbh i quite like them! ok, at first the departing depression will give us a spell of cool northerlies, BUT, if the longwave settles in northern/central europe, wouldnt it advect some of that russian heat around its circulation and eventually over us as several of the gfs uppers suggest? now i know that wont be partricually hot by the time it gets here, but it should be rather pleasantly warm. i find too the continental scouced air is often rather milky and humid, at least if it comes directly from france/belgium..

so whilst theres no big anticyclonic heatwave progged, this type of synoptic set up might produce some interesting, albeit unsettled, weather.

I been seeing these charts for a bit now but one thing i've always wondered is where abouts is the UK on that map, sorry for sounding dumb but that type of chart is new two me.

i like it.... if more people asked what might be basic questions instead of pretending to know what others were saying, we might all (the less knowlegable) be better off.

[Summer Sun]

GFS O6Z continues on from the 00Z in showing a slow rise in pressure by late next week and into the weekend,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2041.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2281.png

If it does happen then it will be a slow process with the west seeing the high pressure first before slowly moving east. More agreement is needed from the other models before we can get our hopes up as later in FI pressure begins to drop again.

Edited July 16, 2011 by Gavin D

[Moisty]

I'm a rare poster but a regular reader and it seems there are tentative signs of an improvement next weekend, hate to put a dampener on it though but often we have a short lived hot spell in a poor summer during the last week in July and a short lived cool spell in a good summer. Hope it marks a glorious August this year though.

[Eugene]

More agreement is needed from the other models before we can get our hopes up as later in FI pressure begins to drop again.

We got agreement from UKMO 00Z, probably one of the most consistent runs and NOGAPS is similar too, looks like another overhyped unsettled spell, already by wednesday ridging is moving towards us and LP moving away northwards, cant see much rain at all now from this spell as the bout of heavy rain wednesday morning has been completely downgraded now.

[ANYWEATHER]

We got agreement from UKMO 00Z, probably one of the most consistent runs and NOGAPS is similar too, looks like another overhyped unsettled spell, already by wednesday ridging is moving towards us and LP moving away northwards, cant see much rain at all now from this spell as the bout of heavy rain wednesday morning has been completely downgraded now.

I feel quite sure ,just as previous ridges over the weeks have been progged by the models will end up with just a transcient ridge "if that" by the end of next week....

[Geordiesnow]

cant see much rain at all now from this spell as the bout of heavy rain wednesday morning has been completely downgraded now.

Tell the folks of Scotland that, looks like NE Scotland will be the wettest place for the next few days with low pressure core just to the East of Scotland. Western areas should be drier but they will have more of an influence of a Northerly wind which may a few showers down. Personally I would not mind the NNW'ly airflow is the low pressure is futher East as it will bring clear air with the risk of convective showers but at this stage, it looks dull and quite cool.

Oh well, although you will think it in this thread sometimes, its not the end of the world and it won't last forever.

[snowlover2009]

We got agreement from UKMO 00Z, probably one of the most consistent runs and NOGAPS is similar too, looks like another overhyped unsettled spell, already by wednesday ridging is moving towards us and LP moving away northwards, cant see much rain at all now from this spell as the bout of heavy rain wednesday morning has been completely downgraded now.

Just like all the settled spells that we have seen in the models or experienced then isn't it?

Yes, the high to the west ridges in, but we still have the north easterly on top of that, so it makes no difference to me. It is too far out to get excited about, especially looking at ecm, which was much more accurate about this spell of weather than the gfs.

Any settled weather to me looks transient, and not exactly summer at its best, a high to the west nudging in to the uk does not excite me too much, it won't be especially warm or continental warmth and I believe we would get another low passing down the side of the high eventually.

Onto the models, I think they look vile for the next days, I don't see these tentative signs of improvement?

Edited July 16, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Snowyowl9]

I feel quite sure ,just as previous ridges over the weeks have been progged by the models will end up with just a transcient ridge "if that" by the end of next week....

Last week was a good sunny week after,longest dry spell of the summer so 4/5 days much better than last July at least.

But really yes it`s the same old story since 2007 the jet diving south over the UK.

Now tomorrow looks really cold wet with gales in the west and it`s looking like a similar day to last summer,but maybe worse coldest July day since 2007 I`ll say,it`ll be close last July max 14.2c lowest.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

[TonyH]

It would need to be dull and wet most of the day though for such low maxima, a few sunny intervals and it will rise several degrees. GFS as usual under cooking maxima this week, according to GFS I will not be seeing even 16c next week (ridiculously impossible for July!).

[mushymanrob]

i dont see anything to get excited about if its sunshine and warmth youre after.... pressure might be set to rise in the west later in the week, but all models including the anomoly charts keep this low to our east, drawing in initially cool northerlies. as things stand the higher pressure never gets here and currently isnt expected too.

i think we are seeing a major pattern shift. since early may we have been dominated by the trough/ridge/trough/ridge pattern. if the anomoly charts are proven correct then we are in for a period (of 'x' amount of time) whereby northwestern europe is dominated by this large area of low pressure, locked into place by the azh and the siberian high with a connecting ridge to our north. IF this becomes reality, and its rather probable that it will, this will possibly see out the rest of summer, which in essence is only 6 weeks.

its possible for something warmer to evolve IF this trough sinks more southerly, or/and easterly, we might get a warm easterly then as continental hot air is advected in the lows circulation.

[snowlover2009]

It would need to be dull and wet most of the day though for such low maxima, a few sunny intervals and it will rise several degrees. GFS as usual under cooking maxima this week, according to GFS I will not be seeing even 16c next week (ridiculously impossible for July!).

Well it is 14.6 here in Leeds. It is not impossible at all.

i dont see anything to get excited about if its sunshine and warmth youre after.... pressure might be set to rise in the west later in the week, but all models including the anomoly charts keep this low to our east, drawing in initially cool northerlies. as things stand the higher pressure never gets here and currently isnt expected too.

i think we are seeing a major pattern shift. since early may we have been dominated by the trough/ridge/trough/ridge pattern. if the anomoly charts are proven correct then we are in for a period (of 'x' amount of time) whereby northwestern europe is dominated by this large area of low pressure, locked into place by the azh and the siberian high with a connecting ridge to our north. IF this becomes reality, and its rather probable that it will, this will possibly see out the rest of summer, which in essence is only 6 weeks.

its possible for something warmer to evolve IF this trough sinks more southerly, or/and easterly, we might get a warm easterly then as continental hot air is advected in the lows circulation.

I agree, I think the second half could be the worse part of the summer and the first part has not been particularly good.

If something like ecm or gem verified, it would be very very hard to get out of. In june, when we had blocking, high pressure was weaker, due it being early summer, with stronger pressure into August and northern blocking, it could very hard to shift through the month.

Edited July 16, 2011 by snowlover2009

[UV-RAY]

i dont see anything to get excited about if its sunshine and warmth youre after.... pressure might be set to rise in the west later in the week, but all models including the anomoly charts keep this low to our east, drawing in initially cool northerlies. as things stand the higher pressure never gets here and currently isnt expected too.

i think we are seeing a major pattern shift. since early may we have been dominated by the trough/ridge/trough/ridge pattern. if the anomoly charts are proven correct then we are in for a period (of 'x' amount of time) whereby northwestern europe is dominated by this large area of low pressure, locked into place by the azh and the siberian high with a connecting ridge to our north. IF this becomes reality, and its rather probable that it will, this will possibly see out the rest of summer, which in essence is only 6 weeks.

its possible for something warmer to evolve IF this trough sinks more southerly, or/and easterly, we might get a warm easterly then as continental hot air is advected in the lows circulation.

What a depressing thought, and sadly one that is looking the favorite at this moment in time.

[bluearmy]

i dont see anything to get excited about if its sunshine and warmth youre after.... pressure might be set to rise in the west later in the week, but all models including the anomoly charts keep this low to our east, drawing in initially cool northerlies. as things stand the higher pressure never gets here and currently isnt expected too.

i think we are seeing a major pattern shift. since early may we have been dominated by the trough/ridge/trough/ridge pattern. if the anomoly charts are proven correct then we are in for a period (of 'x' amount of time) whereby northwestern europe is dominated by this large area of low pressure, locked into place by the azh and the siberian high with a connecting ridge to our north. IF this becomes reality, and its rather probable that it will, this will possibly see out the rest of summer, which in essence is only 6 weeks.

its possible for something warmer to evolve IF this trough sinks more southerly, or/and easterly, we might get a warm easterly then as continental hot air is advected in the lows circulation.

dont panic Rob. its statistically impossible to go through june, july and august without a spell of anticyclonic dominance.................. surely ??? seriously, this trough will either sink southeast or drift ne as pressure builds from the sw. how long this lasts ????????

[SP1986]

Are some of you forgetting that we've been here before this summer? The outlook will change, or at least turn out not to be as bad as the models suggest.

We can safely assume three things:

1) The low is being overdone (that is the depth of the low). The low will most likely become more slackened as we move towards the 0h timeframe - this is a common occurence, not just wishful thinking.

2) The model out keeps setting up the low to our east despite a fairly large areas of potentially empty pressure to our east. In this case we can, for now, assume the low will fill this gap as we approach the 0h timeframe. Given the propensity of pressure systems to generally be positioned further east than the original evolution suggested, then this is not a far fetched idea.

3) Should the scenario of number 2 occur, then we would likely see a ridging of high pressure occurring, and no, it would not necessarily being wall to wall sunshine, and certainly wouldn't result in a heatwave.

So I'm sticking by the prediction that the low pressure will give way and around the 23rd to the 25th this will allow High Pressure to ridge in.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the relevant question is whether or not we often get summers without any anticyclonic spells that persist for more than 3-4 days, since we've had three anticyclonic spells so far this summer but none of them lasted longer than that. 1954 was an infamous example, but I think that statistically they are pretty rare.

However, while anticyclonic dominance generally guarantees dry settled weather it's not a guarantee of warmth or sunshine, as that depends on where the high ends up. Anywhere over or to the east of Britain is usually very favourable for that at this time of year, but if it stays stubbornly to the west and south-west (which is looking quite likely at present) then there's a much higher chance of conditions being relatively cool and cloudy for most.

In the shorter term, it looks like remaining mostly cloudy and windy until Monday with outbreaks of rain and some brighter showery interludes but the emphasis should shift towards bright showery conditions and lighter winds by Tuesday.

[TonyH]

Well it is 14.6 here in Leeds. It is not impossible at all.

You obviously did not read my post carefully. I meant that it is impossible to go a week in July here without recording 16c!

Today was expected to be cool yet it has managed 19c for example.

Of course I realise that the odd very cool day of 12-14c max will occur if it is dull and wet, as I have recorded such figures occasionally both here and in the MIdlands. I bet your max today has been above 16c?

What a depressing thought, and sadly one that is looking the favorite at this moment in time.

Oh well at least the first half of Summer has been fairly dry and sunny here!