UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[Staffordshire]

I'm not going to get excited just to be let down, I'd rather be suprised

[Neilsouth]

I just want to get rid of this bloody cloud, it's cold and naff

[MP-R]

Anyone noticed the bomb just leaving the east Spanish coast below Barcelona at the moment? Looks quite impressive on sat24.

[Harry]

BBC going with a thundery theme for Tues/Weds at the moment

BUT, far more importantly, KAYE's BACK!!!!!! lol

Anyone noticed the bomb just leaving the east Spanish coast below Barcelona at the moment? Looks quite impressive on sat24.

Looks positively fine if you ask me! good spot

Thought you meant a 'bomb' in the meteorological sense

[Chris K]

Hopefully i'll finally see something. The MetO forecast at the moment also says about the increasing risk in thunderstorms for the south west as well. I have a feeling though that its going be similar to before where it starts as rain showers in the west and then develop into more electrical stuff as it travels E/NE. Too early to tell obviously, I can still hope

[MP-R]

Hopefully i'll finally see something. The MetO forecast at the moment also says about the increasing risk in thunderstorms for the south west as well. I have a feeling though that its going be similar to before where it starts as rain showers in the west and then develop into more electrical stuff as it travels E/NE. Too early to tell obviously, I can still hope

Having said that, the overall flow is from a southerly or southeasterly direction. Some of our best storms come from that direction and get stronger as they move slowly northwestwards. Fingers crossed.

[legritter]

lets hope we all see something next week . with current set up i think we are going to have to wait till late sun charts before we get a 50,percent idea on areas most prone . it could be a case of local home grown beasts on tuesday , with french inports late tues wed . a low could form and stall , somewhere over southern counties later . there could be severall e locations that get a good hit , but we are talking about 50,000 sq miles with this being a possibility at the moment , i hope all those that have missed out so far this year , get a good hammering . i just hate this damp drab crabby , grey blanket , BRING ON THE BRANDSTORMS . REGARDS LEGRITTER MENDIPS .

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS not that exciting for next week now. Some thundery showers but not much. Could still change but all in all right now uninspiring for convective potential next week.

[Harry]

Hey I can't really read maps for t-storms etc, I know it's very earlier but can one of you more experienced monkies make a risk map for what the current models are saying, if you have the time

It's very very difficult to say at the moment IMO - I think you'll be hard pushed to get the more experienced chaps committing just yet, given that there's much to happen in the interim.

We have very changeable pressure patterns on the horizon at the moment so it's an exceptionally difficult call

Based on current charts I'll have a go, but again it's based only the current runs.

My attached attempt is based on overlaying the risk presented by GFS from 00z on Tues 2nd Aug to 00z on Fri 5th Aug...there appears to be potential for the vast majority of the UK at differing times early next week.

GFS highlights a slim chance on Monday up the spine and western areas of the UK, inc Wales, NI, C N England and much of Scotland, however it shows LIs at 0 or higher, momentarily dipping into negative figures across far N of England/S Scotland. Possibility of some precip but not sure whether electrics are likely so left that consideration off. Heavily congested with occlusions so likely to be lots of cloud cover....jury's out.

Tuesday day sees potential up much of the W side of the UK, inc Wales, NI, Scotland, NW England and possibly SW England. It is a very frontal picture however, straddling cooler atlantic air and much warmer and more humid continental air to the east. I would suspect there is some decent potential for thundery rain, particularly further North (as UKMO progging ridge trying to push in behind the fronts possibly deflating convection some what further towards S Wales/SW England), but thunderstorm activity I wouldn't bet on due to excessive cloud cover. UKMO is pointing to pre frontal trough straddling E Scotland down through NE England into C N England, which I suspect could be a focal point for thunderstorm activity...GFS thinking a possible spike in jet activity could coincide with this trough so perhaps a brief period Tues lunchtime/afternoon for severe potential in these areas.

Tuesday night sees potential for potent thunderstorms to spread up from France across much of C, S, SE and E England but as ever with these features they are difficult to predict. SW England could well be included in this also, but at present GFS thinking not much will cross anywhere west of Bristol as the Cold Front may well have moved through (although this itself could spark off home growns). MCS' are a possibility so widespread activity is possible.

Wednesday sees renewed risk of thunderstorms stretching from the SE, up C/E side of England in northern areas of England. However should MCS or other storms be imported Tuesday night this leaves much uncertainty on Wednesday due to cloud cover. It does look at the moment though EA, NE England and C/N England could be in with a chance of thunderstorm activity.

Thursday sees residual risk across E England although CAPE/LI values are low.

You only have to look at the MetO fax chart to see how complex the up and coming scenario is...there is as I say potential for thunder across about 90% of the UK at some stage, comprising thundery showers, thunderstorms (possible severe for a time) and thundery rain. It really will be a watching and waiting game and waiting for the likes of Nick F, Brickfielder and co to give their far more knowledgeable insights

(Btw, my little go at a chart is based on probability not severity, and extends from 00z Tues to 00z Fri based on a combination of GFS and UKMO charts - thin yellow (like Estofex) representing a small risk, thicker yellow quite a fair chance of storms, with orange representing a good chance)

GFS not that exciting for next week now. Some thundery showers but not much. Could still change but all in all right now uninspiring for convective potential next week.

I'm obviously looking at different GFS charts...furthermore, GFS isn't God, it does get it wrong. You only have to look at the pressure charts to see things going boom is likely for many.

[Staffordshire]

Thanks for that harry, much appreiacted!

[lewisosd]

I will literally be very excited if we get some nighttime action next week

Lol my post was moderated! It did not actually say that lol!

[viking_smb]

Lol my post was moderated! It did not actually say that lol!

I knew what it said, saw it previously.....

on a serious note (not often with me) thunderstorms are 50/50 I reckon.

[VillagePlank]

Some potential for SE as continental instability moves N'wrd from France. Too far away for any detail, yet - (and further into next week is even further away)

Here's the interesting charts, skew-t's will be out tomorrow (although it will be Paris and West of Paris that look interesting for storm formation at the moment)

It looks to be one helluva muggy night; although GFS and DP's sometimes really don't work that well together, so the chances are that it's overcooked.

Edited July 30, 2011 by Sparticle

[The PIT]

Viscous rumours that there maybe the odd bit of interest this coming week. Perhaps we'll have some action to finish of the disappointing summer. AS ever it will be a case of wait and see on the days concerned.

[Harry]

Viscous rumours that there maybe the odd bit of interest this coming week. Perhaps we'll have some action to finish of the disappointing summer. AS ever it will be a case of wait and see on the days concerned.

Is that vicious rumours or viscous humor (eye juice)? (sorry that's me being an a*$ehole)

Storms or otherwise, I'm looking forward to the heat and humidity arriving beautiful day at last, though will be much happier when we see the clouds moving in from the S/SE than the northerly direction as is at present

[Costa Del Fal]

Decent charts again this evening for thundery potential. Maybe i was a little harsh on them earlier as I was very tired but Im quite optimistic of some good classic British thundery downpours with pretty much most of the UK having a chance at some point but things fluctuating quite a bit right now. On the 06z it was fairly weak potential with the risk going from West to East then in the 12z its West to East and West again.

All to play for!

[Phil UK]

the risk going from West to East then in the 12z its West to East and West again.

All to play for!

To west, to east... To east, to west...

Here's hoping for at least something thundery this coming week. Or am I once again being tooooooooo optimistic?

Phil.

[Dorsetbred]

Any chance of pushing this back a day, as I'm in Edinburgh from Mon - Weds, just typical the threat looks to mature for my area on Tues night. Damn it

[Costa Del Fal]

To west, to east... To east, to west...

Here's hoping for at least something thundery this coming week. Or am I once again being tooooooooo optimistic?

Phil.

What legends. :lol:

I think Solihull stands a fair chance this upcoming week.

[Staffordshire]

Maybe a trip to the Cheshire gap would be a good idea?

[Static Prevails]

At least in this kind of set-up we all have a chance. It seems the day with the most potential for me is on Tuesday.

[Raidan]

Some interesting posts but imo i dont think it's going to be all that great,Lots of us have been in this position so many times before i've lost count,We sky and radar watch all day hopeing something will happen and the majority of the time it was pointless and a waste of time as nothing does,Yes it looks good for next week but it's a few days away and things are likely to change,If we do stay on track i dont think we will get monstrous french imports far from it,maybe some short lived homegrowns but imo thats about it,If you live in the west of the country i wouldn't expect anything lol you know the east will hog any action that may come off,Any how i do hope finally some REAL storms kick of next week and the west do eventually get in on the act,Good luck all

[Coast]

It's very very difficult to say at the moment IMO - I think you'll be hard pushed to get the more experienced chaps committing just yet

Or even people like me!!! :lol:

'Trends' for me at the moment, here are a few more leading up to anything:

and these are getting better:

When a few more models from other sources come into range tomorrow, we can start getting a better idea of the consensus, but I'm pleased with GFS so far given its only one of them. For real action it looks like you're going to have to get into Holland or Belgium in the middle of next week. So if our kids are off school, why not get a couple of days abroad on a ferry and take them storm chasing?!!!

[Staffordshire]

Notice how I'm in the gap in the cape?...

[Harry]

I'm going to conveniently choose to ignore the 00z because they're not as nice as the others