UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[Lauren]

The sky for the last couple of days has had some promising looking clouds, but alas they haven't delivered. The sky looks like it wants to burst, but doesn't seem able to.

[Coast]

The weekend looks potentially interesting storm-wise

See what I mean, it takes someone who actually knows their stuff to shed some light on convective storm potential!

[Supacell]

I am very interested in the weekend (Sunday) and next weeks prospects as I am off work and for the first time in a while I can chase without limitation.

A little unfortunate that the potential being shown by GFS for next week looks poor if compared to some of the set ups recently, for example last week, but I will take whatever crumbs of convective activity I can pick up.

I am hoping that things start to look better as we get towards the weekend for some more substantial convective forces to come into play for Sunday onwards.

[Coast]

Sundays potential in the South is dropping off a bit at the moment and most of what's left being pushed towards Monday. Still that's models and this far out I'm not too concerned as the inevitable up and downs may bring us back into line (or not!).

Further North still has some interest:

But between the two, the Manchester Meteogram is also uninspiring currently

[Supacell]

To be honest I am not seeing much if any chance for storms for at least the next week. With LP in control in July I would have expected things to better - but CAPE looks, quite honestly, cr*p!

[paul m]

Sunday is looking good up here with the Nw saying 51% and the Met showing promise as well

[Coast]

We might be back on for something Sunday.......

[Stuart]

Sat dont look to bad for me at the mo

[Guest]

LOW risk of thunder for Saturday, in the form of a very messy showery Saturday afternoon for many northern areas. Best chance currently looks like Central Southern Scotland and far N and NE England Edited July 15, 2011 by UKStorms

[Supacell]

It is just one run but the 06z gives me hope of seeing something a bit thundery over the weekend and into next week.

[Coast]

It is just one run but the 06z gives me hope of seeing something a bit thundery over the weekend and into next week.

Lets see what its like in the morning as it might warrant another specific daily thread!

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 12z bringing some Thundery potential for the Midlands tomorrow now. Could be some fairly sharp downpours if not thundery anyway.

[Stuart]

still looking good for me tomorrow so it could be my 4th storm of the year :drinks:

[Jane Louise]

I hope I get something tomorrow, even if it's just rain. I am really looking forward to having rain. It's been so humid and very dry here for the past couple of weeks. Bring on the rain I say because I doubt I'll have much luck with a storm lol !

[Raidan]

Nice to have some rain today it has got rid of the muggy feeling here,Hopeing for something thundery tomorrow but more than likely nothing will happen,seems the SW is a no go zone for storms got more chance of being ran over by a boat on the road lol,Anyway good luck to all.

[Lauren]

How would I go about finding a strike map for the big storm of August 1997?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't know to be honest- Wetterzentrale has a lightning archive from 1998 to 2007:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsbeobl.html

...but it wouldn't cover August 1997.

[Jane Louise]

Hey folks,

New thread in here for discussion of tomorrows storm potential .

[Lauren]

I don't know to be honest- Wetterzentrale has a lightning archive from 1998 to 2007:

http://www.wetterzen...en/fsbeobl.html

...but it wouldn't cover August 1997.

How annoying. I would love to have seen the strikes that night, never seen anything like it in the UK.

[Supacell]

Hoping for some storms around northern uk tomorrow once an area of rain in the morning shifts soutward. Any thoughts guys and gals?

[Coast]

So are we taking a rest day before tomorrow?

Hopefully back in SE with a bit of luck for us lot!

[Staffordshire]

What are the CAPE values for tommorow Coast?

Oh itis for tommorow, I'm in a nice little gap There, suprise suprise!

Edited July 20, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Coast]

What are the CAPE values for tommorow Coast?

They aren't over impressive so far

[Lynxus]

There was me hoping the west would be in for fun today, Doesnt look like any chance of this.

Plenty of rain about though

[Norfolk Sheep]

Alex Deacon mentioned "big vicious thunderstorms" in the NE on BBC Breakfast this morning

If they're anything like that line of intense storms in Norfolk yesterday afternoon they'll be incredible.......