UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah bring it on I say! Hopefully me an Jane Louise will see our first storm! More likely than the spanish plume?! Your kidding right Thant thing was a beast, or do you mean just for our area because we didn't get much out the plume...

I mean just for our area, SE areas do better from plume setups, like that massive crack of thunder at wimbledon 0n 28th June, with Lisicki v Bartoli

Edited July 4, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Staffordshire]

I mean just for our area, SE areas do better from plume setups, like that massive crack of thunder at wimbledon 0n 28th June, with Lisicki v Bartoli

Haha yeah she crapper herself! And I'd say more northern areas are more prone to this upcoming event?...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Haha yeah she crapper herself! And I'd say more northern areas are more prone to this upcoming event?...

slack low pressure in July with strong sun should be promising for all areas, certainly fantastic CB clouds and torrential showers at least

07 Sep 2010 got a decent storm, and of course 9th may 11 , nothing particularly hot about those days

Edited July 4, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Staffordshire]

slack low pressure in July with strong sun should be promising for all areas, certainly fantastic CB clouds and torrential showers at least

Sounds dandy!

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 19:07 Monday, 4th July 2011

Valid: 06:07 Tuesday, 5th July 2011 - 05:07 Wednesday, 6th July 2011

Areas Affected:

S and E England, Wales, much of Eire

Discussion:

Synopsis: Low pressure will approach W Ireland through the day with an occluded front making it's way across Britain during the afternoon. Various troughs will be embedded in the W'ly flow south of the surface low and bring a showery airmass across S Britain and Ireland.

Discussion: Two possible areas for thunder exist...

SW Britain/Eire: Post occlusion, cold air advection aloft will move across this area with 500mb temps cooling to near -26C in southern Ireland by midnight. This will increase the potential for instability and allow for showers to develop and continue into the overnight period, some of them thundery. Some modest CAPE develops across Eire during the afternoon 200-400j/kg possible. DLS and LLS will decrease behind the occlusion and given little surface heating the main threat from any storms will be hail and some lightning. Parts of this area will be monitored for increase to thunderstorm risk area. It should be noted that LLS shear will increase into Wednesday morning across S Ireland and a few funnels could be possible there late in the period (probably more of an issue for Wednesday's forecast).

SE and E England: Models suggesting a plume of unstable air may get mixed in ahead of the occluded front with a frontal wave developing during the evening and overnight. This will bring the potential of some heavy rain along with the small (20% chance) for some embedded flashes of lightning late evening and overnight as this wave moves northward along the frontal boundary. This could produce lightning into the North Sea into the early morning hours on Wednesday as thermal boundary increases.

http://www.ukasf.co....rm-forecasts/30

Edited July 4, 2011 by Stuart

[nanu]

Haha yeah she crapper herself! And I'd say more northern areas are more prone to this upcoming event?...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Gy_cD9rbOg

lol Here's that moment

[Jane Louise]

Last Updated: 19:07 Monday, 4th July 2011

Valid: 06:07 Tuesday, 5th July 2011 - 05:07 Wednesday, 6th July 2011

Areas Affected:

S and E England, Wales, much of Eire

Discussion:

Synopsis: Low pressure will approach W Ireland through the day with an occluded front making it's way across Britain during the afternoon. Various troughs will be embedded in the W'ly flow south of the surface low and bring a showery airmass across S Britain and Ireland.

Discussion: Two possible areas for thunder exist...

SW Britain/Eire: Post occlusion, cold air advection aloft will move across this area with 500mb temps cooling to near -26C in southern Ireland by midnight. This will increase the potential for instability and allow for showers to develop and continue into the overnight period, some of them thundery. Some modest CAPE develops across Eire during the afternoon 200-400j/kg possible. DLS and LLS will decrease behind the occlusion and given little surface heating the main threat from any storms will be hail and some lightning. Parts of this area will be monitored for increase to thunderstorm risk area. It should be noted that LLS shear will increase into Wednesday morning across S Ireland and a few funnels could be possible there late in the period (probably more of an issue for Wednesday's forecast).

SE and E England: Models suggesting a plume of unstable air may get mixed in ahead of the occluded front with a frontal wave developing during the evening and overnight. This will bring the potential of some heavy rain along with the small (20% chance) for some embedded flashes of lightning late evening and overnight as this wave moves northward along the frontal boundary. This could produce lightning into the North Sea into the early morning hours on Wednesday as thermal boundary increases.

http://www.ukasf.co....rm-forecasts/30

That sounds great Stu, one can only hope that we all see something. So fed up with this humid cloudy weather we've had over the past couple of days! we've hardly had any rain at all for a while. Keeping fingers crossed for us all.

[Marcus_surfer]

Hoping for some heavy showers and thunderstorms this week after the warm spell.

[paul m]

Hoping for some heavy showers and thunderstorms this week after the warm spell.

Im with you on that one.

[Raidan]

Thunderstorms this week(GREAT) Just as long as they stay away on wednesday! I have planned a day out in Weston Super Mare with a few of the lads who i haven't seen in a while,But any other day this week storms are more than welcome.

[Wilxy]

Thunderstorms this week(GREAT) Just as long as they stay away on wednesday! I have planned a day out in Weston Super Mare with a few of the lads who i haven't seen in a while,But any other day this week storms are more than welcome.

iv just been down weston earlier was a lovely evening down there lovely sunset aswel

[VillagePlank]

Assume we've seen the skew-t for Wednesday (tomorrow) 12z ?

Edited July 5, 2011 by Sparticle

[Coast]

Assume we've seen the skew-t for Wednesday (tomorrow) 12z ?

Which area is that for VP?

[SteveB]

iv just been down Weston earlier was a lovely evening down there lovely sunset aswel

Living in Weston myself, the front has certainly improved after the redevelopment & the new pier. With the imminent start of the Dolphin square development, Weston will have a lot going for it.

I shouldn't worry to much about the weather tomorrow, Weston will probably get a few heavy showers, but I would imagine in-between the showers it will be fairly pleasant.

[Coast]

Might be a possibility in the middle of the country tomorrow?

[Stuart]

Hope so Coast

[Alex95]

I'm quite happy about tomorrow and Thursday (and possibly Friday!) - it looks like we're about to experience the most reliable thundery set up for NE England, such as the one which brought 2 consecutive days of thunder in May. This has been a pretty thundery summer so far by NE standards, lets hope it continues!

Edited July 5, 2011 by alza

[Raidan]

Raining here and alot cooler than the last few days,Happy to see some sites mentioning the SW when it comes to thundery activity today.

[Lauren]

Assume we've seen the skew-t for Wednesday (tomorrow) 12z ?

How do i go about understanding that chart?

Also BBC is forecasting storms here for Thursday.

[ZONE 51]

Thunder Watch/Storm Watch

period - tuesday night to saturday

-

Their is the potential for thunder/lightning strikes or thunderstorms during this watch period

-

:drunk:

so where is the unstable air - this up to wednesday night(take each day as is comes with LI/CAPE)

1-keeping watch for front thunder and lightning in east tonight/overnight and scotland later

2-southwest england overnight then towards s/se towards morning

3-northern england wednesday pm especially-but many other areas at risk

-

Edited July 5, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Harry]

This is a good video - thunder is awesome! Pretty much captures what I experienced a week ago today

Sorry - wrong thread I know but it seems appropriate

VOLUME UP!!!

Much like what I was hearing on Tuesday, many of these sound like +ve CGs

Edited July 5, 2011 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

Fingers Crossed. I want a storm sooo much it's been so long

! roll on tomorrow. I WILL leave the NSC tomorrow you wait and see.

[Stuart]

I got my Fingers Crossed to jane

[Paul Sherman]

This is a good video - thunder is awesome! Pretty much captures what I experienced a week ago today

Sorry - wrong thread I know but it seems appropriate

VOLUME UP!!!

Much like what I was hearing on Tuesday, many of these sound like +ve CGs

Pmsl I dont think that guy should go to the USA or he might have a heart attack - He was either on the phone making a dirty phone call with all that breathing :lol: Or has a severe phobia of Thunderstorms

Good Vid though for the noise, much like what we had in SE Essex for about 3 hours last Tuesday

[Raidan]

Got my fingers crossed for something tonight and early hours of tomorrow but dont want anything during wednesday daytime.