UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Coast I hope so time running out now becuse maybe less then 2 morths before i move to a no zone area

Now Stu, are you sure that isen't Cheltenham you're moving too?:winky:

[Stuart]

Now Stu, are you sure that isen't Cheltenham you're moving too?:winky:

I sure it not there :lol:

[Staffordshire]

Is it looking good this coming week, could me and Jane maybe see a storm?

[Stuart]

and here what the metoffice forecast say for me next week

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming increasingly unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery at times.

Updated: 0322 on Sun 3 Jul 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/dg/dg_forecast_weather.html

[Jane Louise]

I sure it not there :lol:

Honestly though Stu,

I'm 100% sure that you can't get worst then Cheltenham for storms. I expect you'll even manage to do better then me when you move.:lol:

Is it looking good this coming week, could me and Jane maybe see a storm?

I guess it's probably going to be a 'No' Staffordshire Is it really bad for you too in Staffs? We will get a chance soon me, you, Stu and others .

[Staffordshire]

Aha yep! A thundery storm passed about 8 miles away in May, and on Tue 28th June I had some heavy showers but that's it

[MP-R]

I think the BBC has gone bonkers as Wednesday-Friday all feature the thunderstorm symbol for Bristol - chances are there won't be one on either day.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well hello.

I'm enjoying the current settled spell actually in spite of the thunderstorms coming anywhere near me, however.......................

The MetO hint at possibly thundery type showers next Wednesday & Thursday so here's hoping, see http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Furthermore, prior to then, the MO Fax Charts at t+48 (attached) suggest a triple point low showing up, so will there be any implications from this as it interacts with the warmer air pushing eastwards, anybody?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Sunny Android]

Looking at GFS forecast, there are no high CAPE values and the Lifted Index are insignificant from Tuesday to Thursday.

It's not humid enough for a serious thunderstorm, well at this location anyway.

I'm also interested on the 'triple point low' and it's part it may have to play in the weather breakdown ?

[Stuart]

you dont need high caps or Liffted index or humid weather for storms

[AWD]

I think the BBC has gone bonkers as Wednesday-Friday all feature the thunderstorm symbol for Bristol - chances are there won't be one on either day.

Very weird! Just been on the BBC forecast for Bristol and on Wednesday and Friday there is a thunderstorm symbol there ( not thundery shower one but a thunderstorm one )!

Don't think I've ever seen that before! I hope it's right but I just can't see where they get that from!! Thundery shower maybe but thunderstorm?????

Edit: Which at 21.00 as been replaced by the light rain symbol and heavy shower symbol which unfortunately is probably the more likely outcome!! D'oh!

Edited July 3, 2011 by Active Weather Dude

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aha yep! A thundery storm passed about 8 miles away in May, and on Tue 28th June I had some heavy showers but that's it

was that 9th may? passed 8 miles to your NW? it hit me full on, the best one ive had in years, ajpoolshark from my area S Stafford has pics somewhere

[A.J]

Aha yep! A thundery storm passed about 8 miles away in May, and on Tue 28th June I had some heavy showers but that's it

was that 9th may? passed 8 miles to your NW? it hit me full on, the best one ive had in years, ajpoolshark from my area S Stafford has pics somewhere

Indeed Mark, and it was a tad more than 'thundery'...:lol:

Simply the best surface based storm I've witnessed in this country!

Here's the link to the thread... Monster Storm

[SteveB]

I think the BBC has gone bonkers as Wednesday-Friday all feature the thunderstorm symbol for Bristol - chances are there won't be one on either day.

And as sure as eggs are eggs, the thunder symbols have gone.

We might get some heavy showers, and the lucky ones may hear the odd rumble of thunder.

[Coast]

And as sure as eggs are eggs, the thunder symbols have gone.

:lol: Too good to be true huh?

[Stuart]

I sure the symbol will come back

[Harry]

Looking at GFS forecast, there are no high CAPE values and the Lifted Index are insignificant from Tuesday to Thursday.

It's not humid enough for a serious thunderstorm, well at this location anyway.

I'm also interested on the 'triple point low' and it's part it may have to play in the weather breakdown ?

We need to be clear here, I don't think anyone is predicting a 'serious thunderstorm'...the closest to thunder that are being suggested are 'thundery showers'...or otherwise worded, showers with a risk of thunder.

Some on here will maintain (what's a friendly discussion amongst friends lol) that a thundery shower can be just a torrential downpour with no thunder...IMO, that's is absolute claptrap! BUT, there are some, including perhaps the MetO, who adopt that position, so while they're forecasting thundery showers (with the little lightning symbol), they may not actually be anticipating any thunder...believe me that's not a position I've ever adopted but don't be surprised if some mention it.

IMO, thunder is likely this week despite disappointing CAPE/LI figures. Post frontal airmasses are normally quite unstable across the British Isles and this is frequently missed by weather charts, including the likes of GFS. With strong heating this time of year it is easy for towering, short lived 'pulsating' storms to develop. Squally winds could perhaps organise showers/storms into linear features, however pulsating short lived storms the most likely IMO.

[SteveB]

:lol: Too good to be true huh?

Thunder symbol for 3 days in a row, I would have eaten my hat, coat, shoes the lot if that had come off........ to good to be true.

[Stuart]

Areas Affected:

N England and E Scottish Borders

Discussion:

As an upper ridge weakens, a pronounced upper trough will approach the country from the Atlantic on Monday. Ahead of the approaching fronts associated with the surface low, there appears to be potential for convection to occur, although this remains very much uncertain.

The GFS suggests the possibility of some noteworthy convection over Northern England in particular, whilst the UKMO (both Global and NAE) retains dry conditions. Consequently, the higher resolution NMM follows the GFS' thinking due to their relationship with data input. The best model agreements, albeit still quite low, appear to be over the eastern Borders in the evening hours.

Current thinking is that a convergence zone may develop along the Pennines as a response to daytime heating and the assoicated sea breezes that develop. This convergence combined with orographic lift may break the cap to allow an isolated shower or two to develop. Slightly colder air aloft and warmer surface temperatures compared to Sunday will steepen lapse rates slightly. Furthermore, up to 300 J/kg CAPE and ELT's as low as -25C would indicate potential for lightning should a shower manage to develop. PWAT's of the high 20's (mm) combined with light upper southerlies will mean if a shower does develop it could provide a lot of rain in a short space of time due to it's slow motion NNEwards.

Weak deep and low level shear severely limits potential for organisation and funnels, although given the convergence zone setup it is possible for a brief CZ-type funnel to develop. It must be noted that the risk of a shower developing is ~20%.

The main threat, if any, appears to be large rain accumulations over a small area. Any showers that do develop may well last well into the evening, although due to their isolated nature most parts of the country will remain dry.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/29

[Lauren]

After all the excitement of El Gordo, I don't think I've ever seen it so quiet on here!

[Harry]

After all the excitement of El Gordo, I don't think I've ever seen it so quiet on here!

After El Gordo, some how scattered showers with a small RISK of thunder doesn't cut the mustard lol

[paul m]

For those who DID NOT get storms its something to look forwards to.

[nanu]

well just watched the bbc news 24 weather.. reached 25c here today and they are now saying 28c tomorrow before the heavy rain and potential thunder moves in tomorrow... Caused by the heat do you reckon??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed Mark, and it was a tad more than 'thundery'...:lol:

Simply the best surface based storm I've witnessed in this country!

Here's the link to the thread... Monster Storm

AJ, I think we may be lucky this week, big window Wed-Sat, I usually think this coming setup is more likely to bring storms than early last weeks setup

[Staffordshire]

AJ, I think we may be lucky this week, big window Wed-Sat, I usually think this coming setup is more likely to bring storms than early last weeks setup

Yeah bring it on I say! Hopefully me an Jane Louise will see our first storm! More likely than the spanish plume?! Your kidding right Thant thing was a beast, or do you mean just for our area because we didn't get much out the plume...

Edited July 4, 2011 by Staffordshire